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It's no harder to win at NE than anywhere else

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Pauly, Sep 26, 2018.

  1. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Thanks for looking up the actual numbers.
     
  2. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    The Dolphins are 2-15 in Foxboro since 2001?

    Ya, it's harder to win there alright ..... for the Dolphins. How can you even argue it's not?
     
  3. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    It has come to the point where I expect to lose in New England.
     
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  4. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    On the other side of the coin it is showcasing that Brandin Cooks is a baller and maybe Belichek outsmarted himself by trading him away.
     
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  5. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    I thought the same thing while i was watching that game last night. Kept thinking on a receiver poor team like the Pats, why would they get rid of him? Was he just not a lockerroom fit?
     
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  6. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Ok. 2 things:

    1. If the Pats are cheating, then you have to assume they aren't as good as their record suggests. That is the point of cheating to get more wins than you could without cheating. So, comparing them to other 12 win average situations, wouldn't be accurate if they are cheating and skew the results.

    2. This is also all based on the assumption that it is easier to cheat at home. That sounds good when you say it fast, but there could be numerous reasons as to why that isn't actually so. For example, with Foxboro's reputation, visiting teams might be a lot more careful with their information while there than they are playing at home against the Pats.
     
  7. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I agree with the above except that I don't understand why people keep saying "IF" they cheated. They were caught, there were admissions. You can't say "if" anymore. All apologists can do is attempt to minimize.
     
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  8. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Deej made a great post about this.

    He said he couldn't understand why BB was getting rid of all these good players. His conclusion was basically, this is probably Brady's last year and the Pats are about 1 injury away from having an extremely high draft pick next season. I think he may be on to something.
     
  9. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    That was my whole argument as well- there is no "if" when the parties involved admitted it behind closed doors and dozens of players have admitted to being interrogated on their prior team's playbooks. The only thing left to figure is how much the cheating helped...which is probably impossible. I personally don't care about this aspect though because cheating makes you a loser in my book no matter what.
     
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  10. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    There is one possible way I can think of as long as you assume Belichick doesn't stop cheating.

    Belichick has proven he can do really well regardless of the players on the team. Outside of Brady there's constant turnover, and even without Brady they did go 11-5 in 2008, at least if you start the clock from 2001 (because in 2000 they did have a 5-11 record, so I guess you'd also have to assume here that the cheating became effective from 2001).

    Assume those two things and you could actually show that cheating wasn't a primary factor in Belichick's success IF they end up with a 8-8 record or worse. Why? Because the 95% confidence interval for winning 12.29 games per season has a lower bound at 8.4 wins. In other words, anything lower than 8.4 wins is not consistent with random variation. And the worst they've done since 2001 is .. 9 wins!

    So assuming that the effect of Belichick cheating, regardless of other circumstances, gives you on average 12.29 wins per season and Belichick doesn't stop cheating, then if NE goes 8-8 or worse you'd actually have statistical evidence the cheating wasn't that important because there's no reason for it to suddenly not work! In other words, a different hypothesis is more consistent with the data.

    One interesting rejoinder here is that the upper bound of that interval is at 14.5 wins, which notably NE has surpassed only once in 2007. And we all know that 2007 was the first year NE had those abnormal fumbling stats. Not saying too much with this, but it is interesting.

    But yes, otherwise I see no way through current stats alone to show the effect of cheating. Either way, this kind of analysis gives you one MORE reason to root for NE to have 8 or fewer wins :)
     
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  11. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    If they win 8 or fewer games it could also mean something else.

    He either stopped cheating on his own volition or he was forced to stop or his methods have finally been figured out and thus don't work anymore.

    IMO, the first and second scenarios are not as likely as the 3rd. And, IMO, believing that after 18 years someone finally figured out the process and disseminated that info to the rest of the league isn't that far fetched.
     
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  12. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah that's certainly possible, but why would it take 18 years? The ones that should have the easiest time replicating the cheating are his former assistants turned HC's, and none of them have had much success. I told KeyFin this in a previous thread, but either those guys have too much integrity in which case they should spill the beans on Belichick (which they haven't), or they also want to win but can't. If it's the latter it's probably not because of cheating.

    So while there are always many hypotheses that are still technically possible (actually mathematically there are always an infinite number of viable hypotheses for any finite number of data points lol), I think the most plausible hypothesis remaining if they win 8 or fewer games is that something else rather than cheating was most likely responsible for their success.

    The big problem here is they have to go 8-8 or worse first lol!!
     
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  13. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    It's a public forum so there's only so much I can say about the tidbits I've picked up on. I have shared earlier that a certain attorney threatened to sue the NFL in open court during the 2016 playoffs....and that's how we ended up having Deflategate. The main issue they were complaining about was not deflated footballs though (it was one of many), and this was brought up again before the start of the 2017 season. Deflategate was simply the easiest to prove and the least damning for the league.

    I'm not suggesting that the Patriots are now 100% squeaky clean in 2018, but I have a feeling that a lot of what they had been doing is now stopped or vastly reduced. For instance, they no longer have a library of other team's playbooks and I seriously doubt they're still trying to steal play-sheets or intel from hotels. If you've noticed, they aren't continually bringing in upcoming opponent's free agents either. Some teams made it plainly clear in 2017 that if it happens again, it will be headline news as they file antitrust suits against Goodell and the league.

    So I think a good bit of that stuff stopped mid-2017 and it's also the reason why there were so many internal stories leaking of unhappy players/coaches. However, they already had everyone's intel last season so it's a trickle-down effect into this year. That's why I was so adamant last year that the Pats would collapse in 2017. It looks like I was a year off though.

    In my mind, I think Belichek was so arrogant that he believed the extra intel wasn't a significant advantage- that he could win it all with or without it and his own players didn't actually matter. And who knows, maybe they do turn things around as Brady has a cinderella year...it just doesn't feel like it though. In Belichek's press conference, he essentially said that we were a more talented team in every aspect of the game. I think he knows what is coming this season and he's smart enough to know that the Pats are in for a rough year.
     
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  14. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    btw guys.. there's something else to consider: Belichick is 66. There are VERY few successful coaches that coached beyond that age. I think there's a good possibility that Belichick will retire soon. Consider..

    Age of retirement:
    Shula 65
    Landry 64
    Schottenheimer 63
    Noll 59
    Reeves 59
    Knox 62
    Reid 60
    Fisher 58
    Parcells 65
    Coughlin 69
    Shanahan 61
    Holmgren 60
    Gibbs 67
    Cowher 49
    ...

    So only Coughlin and Gibbs made it past 66. It's not just this 3-0 start that should make us happy.. at long last I think we're nearing the end of this Patriots dynasty if for no other reason than age!
     
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  15. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Well, my idea is that without Ernie Adams the cheating process would fall flat. And the former assistant coaches don't report what they may know for the same reason Goodell destroyed all evidence a decade ago. The truth would ruin the NFL.
     
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  16. Kud_II

    Kud_II Realist Division

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    I think it all depends on how the officials are feeling. They almost stole the raiders game from us with 2 huge false penalties I believe on the same drive.

    It would be wise of the officials to bet on Miami at +7.5. Make some bank help us win.
     
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  17. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Actually the alternative theory is that BB doesn’t let his assistants know what Ernie Adams does, just points them in the right direction without revealing his true source (kind of like what the Allies did with their breaking of the Enigma code in WW2).
    Which also fits the fact that Patriots OCs and DCs fall flat whenever they get hired to be another team’s HC. They are missing the secret ingedient that they never knew about.
     
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  18. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Keyfin,
    I have no doubt what youre saying is true.
    Certainly things like keeping libraries of playbooks, 7 day contracts for signing players from an opponent’s practise squad et al would help their overall record not just their home record. As an aside for deflategate I think that was all on Brady, without Belichek’s knowledge or input.

    It is well established that other teams are convinced that the Pats get up to Shenanigans at Foxboro. But even if we accept that as true the numbers show that it isn’t giving the Pats any benefits. Every year there is the Superbowl on the line. That’s a very big incentive for a cheater to get greedy, and if it was giving them a benefit I’d expect it to show up in the numbers.
     
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  19. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    The Deflategate thing couldn't have been just Brady since the exact same team personal guy got busted in 1999 deflating footballs for Bledsoe. I think his name was Jim McNally? I'd have to look it up- he's the one with the super incriminating Brady texts saying he needs lots of signed freebies for deflating.

    Also, it was mentioned that it was hit or miss with the spygate intel- sometimes it helped, sometimes it didn't. But if you think about it and really break it down, how much of an advantage does your team need to change the game from a L to a W? Maybe a few critical 3rd down stops? Or a single turnover from knowing the play ahead of time? I think people assume that they knew every single play call and that means they should have won every game 200-0. Cheating in this case is just as much a science as the point you're trying to make.

    ANY unfair advantage is better than nothing though, and I think Belichek wanted every possible edge he could gain.

    Like I said, I can't tell you how much that stuff helped....maybe it had zero influence and never changed a single game. But if that's true, why did they continue it for two decades when they'd already been caught several times and warned of the consequences? Did they assume that they were so smart that nobody would ever catch on? Or did they think they owned the league with Goodell in charge?

    I can't answer that since I have no idea.
     
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  20. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    If someone cheats it should come up in a way that is anomolous. For example the rate of fumbling from 2007 shows up as being positive proof that the Pats were doing something shonky.
    The reason I believe that BB had nothing to do with deflategate is that Brady ordered it done for QB reasons, and the fact it lead to a significantly lower fumble rate was an unintended and unexpcted side effect. The chain of conveniently wiped texts was between Brady and the equipment guy.

    The problem for the cheating hypothes is that we can’t find its fingerprints in the w-l record. If for ecample I cheat at craps by using weighted dice if someone tracks the die rolls for a long enough period.
    If for example the Pats are very disciplined and only cheat when needed when playing at Gillette stadium. If that cheating turns a 50-50 game into a 75-25 game and they only cheat on 2 key games a year that would give them a home winning record of + half a win a year more than you would expect compared to their away record. As cbrad has previously pointed out this is still within the confidence range for it to be explained by randomness, but it still is evidence that there might be a benefit that could be attributed to cheating and further investigation is justified.

    That really only leaves 2 strong hypotheses (1) no cheating and (2) they cheat just as effectively away as at home. The other, weaker possible explanations are (1) no benefit from their cheating at home (2) other teams have effective countermeasures and (3) all teams cheat and the Pats are average cheaters.

    I strongly suspect that the Pats are systemic cheaters based on the types of things you say. However their record is not oddly apart from their continued run of success - which can be explained by having a HoF coach and QB working together for a long time.
     
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2018
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  21. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    cuchulainn posted some quotes from NE fans in Club and one was this:
    So I decided to look into that. Here are the stats on the probability of making the playoffs since 1970 if you lose X consecutive games at any time in the season, and for completeness I added X consecutive wins too.

    Playoff probability given X consecutive losses at any time in season:
    X=1: 37.14%
    X=2: 28.86%
    X=3: 13.33%
    X=4: 5.5%
    X=5: 1.39%
    X=6: 0.87%
    X=7: 0%
    X=8: 0%
    X=9: 0%

    Playoff probability given X consecutive wins at any time in season:
    X=1: 37.33%
    X=2: 42.22%
    X=3: 56.02%
    X=4: 72.51%
    X=5: 82.37%
    X=6: 90.03%
    X=7: 96.03%
    X=8: 98.72%
    X=9: 100%

    Interesting eh? A team had 8 consecutive wins and missed the playoffs??? Only one team has that honor: 1987 San Diego Chargers!
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sdg/1987.htm

    What about losing 6 in a row and making the playoffs? There are two teams, but one came with a 14 game season. Cincinnati in 1970 and Carolina in 2014. Actually Carolina went 7 consecutive games without a win since one was a tie!
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/cin/1970.htm
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/car/2014.htm

    Anyway, we beat NE they then have a historical 13.33% chance of making the playoffs. Sounds good! (have to win first lol)
     
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  22. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Well, what is the average win rate of a QB/coach that's been together 5+years? (I pulled the five out of mid-air...can be any extended period) Obviously if you have the same combination for an extended time, they/re both good at their job (Mannings, Favre, Brees, etc.). Do they average 12.3 wins per season like the Pats though? I know Peyton did but I'm not sure about the others.

    The other point you made about them cheating as well away as at home- I'd believe that's mostly true. The big thing was that it was easier at home. Again though, I'd go back to how many plays it takes to turn the tides of a game with a Brady/Beli combo- I don't think that's a huge number.

    You also have to consider that coaches like Philbin were oblivious to stuff like this and gave the entire play in the cadence to the point where defenses were calling out our routes before the ball was snapped. In other words, we cheated ourselves and made it a lot easier on the league to have solid intel on what we were doing. The Jets did the same thing in week 1 this year so maybe some teams are much easier to diagnose than others. Maybe the Pats had a major advantage over the AFC East (where they gathered the most intel) but not so much over NFC teams. I have no idea....I'm guessing here once again. But Brady is 27-0 at home in our division and that's obviously outside of normal parameters, even for the elite coach/QB combos with extensive experience together.

    Again, I'm not doubting your math...but I think you're looking at this from the top-down level as whole and that's the wrong approach. The Pats don't fumble the football...that's a huge advantage. The Pats don't ever lose at home...that's a huge advantage. I think you need to look more at specific instances to really see a pattern if one actually exists.
     
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  23. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    That loss stat is interesting to me because of our 2016 team- we started the year 1-5 and only avoided 5-straight losses because Cleveland just didn't want to win (they missed two game-winning field goals in the 4th). I know that's not 4 or 5 in a row, but that put our chances of success on the season somewhere in that 1-5% category once we started the six-game win streak (with the odds of 90% to make the playoffs in that study). And honestly, if Cleveland beat us then that would have been 6 losses in a row w/ a 0.87% overall chance. That one win was massive!

    It's crazy we were at both ends of the spectrum in the same season and yes, we made the playoffs.
     
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2018
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  24. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    That's an excellent point. Everybody has been focusing on the eventual retirements of Brady and Gronk but it's possible that BB retires first.
     
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  25. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    When their cheating was the worst was between 2001-2006. They were 3-0 in the Super Bowl and won each game by 3 points. Goodell destroyed every bit of evidence he found before anyone else could take a look at it. He did this because he and Kraft are/were best buds, but also because what he found would have been the end of the NFL.

    Since then the Pats are 2-3 in the Super Bowl, still great mind you, but their 2 wins were as much about bad play calling form their opponents as it was the Pats playing well.

    Do the Pats still cheat? I'd bet my house on it. However, I think Ernie Adams is a little more cautious than he was in the early 2000's. And as such the Pats lose some games that people expect them to win. In fact, I'd bet that they purposely lose a game here and there just to better hide their cheating.

    And before the "tin foil hat" comments come in....Just stop. They've been accused and found guilty numerous times so saying the Pats cheat isn't a conspiracy. It's a fact.


    The sad part is, I think the Pats would have had a nice little story... 7th round QB, HC on his last leg needing to prove he could do the job or else return to the coordinator role, etc. I think they would have most likely won a Super Bowl or 3 without the cheating because I think BB is that good. I actually rooted for the Pats in 2001 against the Rams. Again, Cinderella story, rookie QB whom nobody wanted, but was forced to come in early in the season. And, if they had never cheated I'd give them a great amount of respect and admiration. I'm a Dolphin's fan, but I'm an NFL fan first and foremost. And when I watch greatness I'm in awe and won't be shy about proclaiming that greatness.

    But, the Pats cheat so **** them...
     
  26. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    It's simply impossible to beat the cheat on their home turf. I've made this analogy before and I'll make it again. Beating a team when they have your signals and know what's coming is like trying to win a game of Tecmo Bowl when your buddy is sneaking peaks at your play calling and picking the correct defense every time. That's what happened yesterday. The Patriots were "peeking" when Miami called every play on offense and defense and they were able to dial up the exact plays to counter it. They'll be praised all week for being a great team, but this is what really explains it.
     
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  27. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Sigh....
     
  28. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    He's a literal hobgoblin, I wouldn't count on it.
     
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  29. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    I'd argue that BB and Tom Brady could retire, and as long as Ernie Adams stays on board, a coordinator will take over and they won't skip a beat. As long as they retain their ability to steal signals under the radar without repercussion, nothing will change.
     
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  30. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    I hope some of you guys realize that there are high powered offenses in this league that literally run the same 6-10 players throughout a game and yet they STILL win. Why? Because they execute better than the other team.
     
  31. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    They don't do it for 18+ years with totally different teams and a skinny, weak, slow, 199th pick QB...without cheating, of course.

    It's easy to execute when you know what the other team is calling.
     
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  32. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Not even interested in the slightest getting involved with this whiny cheating talk. You've got plenty of other people to engage for the 500th time regarding it.

    P.S. Tom Brady is really good man - just accept it already lol.
     
  33. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I used to have some respect for Brady. For instance, he does a radio show each week and one of the DJ's said in passing, "Your daughter looks ******ed." Tom said, "Yeah, um, I don't feel like talking anymore today guys. Good luck with the show." Then he hung up and refused to take calls from them. So what happens? They fire the guy who called Brady's kid a ******. Then Brady called back, but not for an interview. He said that the guy made a stupid mistake and doesn't deserve to be fired over it...and asked politely for them to re-hire the idiot. I thought that was a real class move.

    After the Deflategate thing though and learning some other things about the Pats, I just can't respect the guy. You say cheating like we're talking about the Blair Witch or something- they've been caught cheating over and over again. Then the guy gets their QB in waiting traded simply out of fear that it could eventually be a Manning/Luck type of scenario. I mean, he's not even loyal to his own franchise.

    And I'm sorry, Brady just isn't that talented. Watch his throws against Miami...he scored to wide open receivers off of illegal pick plays or push-offs. He had about 6 passes that could have been picked off as well- he's just not that impressive.
     
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  34. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    38-7 beat down and fools continue to think it's because Belichick cheats on the regular. As if 31 other teams somehow just succumb to this unparalleled 17 year reign being nothing more than bamboozling and hornswoggling. Fans are idiots.
     
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