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What Do You Want to Happen Now?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Nov 12, 2018.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Okay, here's what I want for the rest of the season. And before anyone says, "HMMPH, that **** ain't gonna happen!", remember that it already did happen in 2016 when we started 1-5.

    Step 1- We get Tannehill, Tunsil and James back for the Indy game. Then we spank Indy's ***. 6-5

    Step 2- We destroy the Bills at home. With more of an offense, the D actually returns to September levels of dominance. Even bigger news, the Pats lose to the Vikings. 7-5 (w/ Pats 8-4)

    Step 3- We take the lead on the Pats and never let up. Another blowout. 8-5 and tied for the division lead once again.

    Step 4- Tannehill figures a few things out and our offense actually starts looking...well, offensive. We squeak by Minne. 9-5 Oh, and the Pats lose to Pitt dropping 3 straight...we're in sole control of 1st place.

    Step 5- We dominate Jax and start looking like an actual football team. Whispers of Gase for coach of the year can be heard. 10-5

    Step 6- We beat the Bills to close out the season, 11-5 (Pats 10-6)

    Step 7- The Pats take the #5 wildcard slot and we're at #2. We end their season in Miami. 12-5 and a freakin' era comes to an end. The Pats look so bad that Kraft has to give hand jobs on the street corner just to keep the Gillette stadium lights on.

    Step 8-10- This team makes a legit Super Bowl run.

    I know a lot of you just can't see it, but we're a deep passing QB away from being one heck of a football team. Those deep tosses backs up the LB's and lets us work our ground game more efficiently...which in turn rests the defense. It's amazing we grinded out as many yards as we did last week with Oz's whiffleball arm and we all know that's a recipe for disaster. Tannehill may not be the long term answer, but he's definitely 2018's only savior.

    You asked what I wanted to happen....there ya go.
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2018
  2. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Dark Knight for President!!!


    Of the Dolphins, not the country. All though you couldn't do much worserer
     
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  3. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Well that’s one danger with tanking. Your OMG he’s the bestest ever college QB and he’s guaranteed to be a HoFer may turn out ot be a pretty run of the mill player. Luck has had one season with good volume stats, but he’s never been an upper echelon QB in terms of efficiency. Now that his price tag, which was based on over estimation of his potential, started biting into the salary cap the Colts aren’t competitive because his salary exceeds his production.

    The other danger as others have mentioned is becoming the Cleveland Browns and accepting losing as a way of life.
     
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  4. Mike8272

    Mike8272 Active Member

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    The way I see it is that we are too far away from the teams at the bottom to tank for a top pick, and even if we were, I'd argue that this year's QB class is not worth it. Obviously there's some good DL prospects, but I wouldn't be tanking for them.

    If we continue to be a .500 team, we'll still be in a position to draft potential contributors to this team. Our position might even allow us to draft a QB like Grier, Lock or Finley if we felt they could be the guy. We can even trade back if we felt that way to secure more picks. Essentially our draft position should be ok.

    The other reason I wouldn't tank is because it puts the team in the wrong frame of mind. This team needs to learn to win games and that's the best way to build a strong culture with the young and developing players. Ok we might not be a legitimate contender or play off team, but the team does still need to make progress in the win column and proving they can win and close out games.

    With that said, if we truly believe Gase is not the guy, then we can still get rid of him if we didn't win and make the play offs. Coaches have been fired even after making the play offs. So a change of direction would not be farfetched if the decision makers feel Gase is a problem. However, I think Gase will get at least another year and continue the transition towards players he wants and get rid of those he doesn't want from the old regime/those that don't fit his profile.
     
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  5. Patster1969

    Patster1969 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This is the scenario I want to see please? We just need to get some starters back & we can roll on - however, if RT is not coming back this year, I want to see Fales & not Oz, as he appears to have regressed somewhat.

    I can't ever want us to lose on purpose, so no to the idea of tanking - the draft is a crapshoot, so it's not guaranteed that if we were picking top 5, we would get the next Marino anyway.
     
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  6. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    Its not all about the W/L to me. If I saw a team that fought tooth and nail but lost Id be ok with the L's. However I see a team lacking any leadership or direction. Blown coverage's, poor tackling, no creativity on offense, and a defiant head coach who thinks hes smarter than he has proven.

    I get it we have injuries, but that doesn't prevent the way we prepare, gameplan and execute base plays.
     
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  7. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    For me it's pretty simple. I want the team to shut down anybody who is seriously hurt like RT, Grant, etc.. IMO, there is no point in forcing it. Let's get them healthy for next year. As for those who are left, I want them to go out fighting to win every game. There is a lot they can learn from live action games especially if we can win them.
     
  8. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    What? We can get the next Marino toward the end of the first round, that's how it works. ;)
     
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  9. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    We are essentially in Dolphin purgatory. Not crappy enough to get a top tier QB or top defensive player. This has been the issue with building through free agency and so many misses in the draft. We bounce between 5-8 wins with the occasional playoff appearance and first round loss.

    I hate to say it but I’ve pretty much lost faith in this organization. I’ve headless different stories on this coach, this assistant, this QB, this side of the ball, this time it’s different but we always end up in the same spot. At this point, it’s prove it. I will be pleasantly surprised when/IF that happens in my lifetime.
     
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  10. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Well the formula of losing every season to get a top 5 draft pick every year hasn’t worked out too well for Detroit and Cleveland. Their first round draft picks have been in the top 5 for what, the last 10 years or so?
     
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  11. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    I would like to see Tannehill finish up the season injury free. I think he's going to be rusty as hell the first three games and I think it will be the game after indy that he starts. I'll root to win every game but I'm more interested in seeing Tannehill have at least one or two games that show he's back to 2016 form which I hadn't seen this year, the continued improvement of minkah and baker, get a sense of mcmillan's worth (do we give him another year or get an upgrade), hopefully see gesicki and Parker have impact down the stretch. I also want to evaluate our olinemen a bit more. See if any of them show promise as backups next year
     
  12. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    The browns finally hit the jackpot!
     
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  13. Simon

    Simon The Other English Simon Club Member

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    Only if that 'deep passing QB' can also stop the run and rush the passer too...
     
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  14. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I don't disagree, but longer drives (like we had in the 3rd quarter this week for 3 points) takes a lot of pressure off the defense. A lot of the off-sides penalties we take on defense, for example, is just guys getting tired and trying to jump the snap count. A better offense makes your D look better and vise versa.

    I'm not saying everything would be fixed instantly with RT back, but it sure would cover up a lot of the stuff people have focused on here lately.
     
  15. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Luck is anything but run of the mill and is still in the process of ascension.. right now he’s a legit borderline elite qb..
     
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  16. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Its now been admitted that he basically wasn't healthy for most of 2015-2017 (and his numbers were still good in 2016 despite that). If he truly now is right physically, then he should be able to keep it up for a long time. Injuries can derail anyone, even the best players.
     
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  17. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Yeah, he's playing really well, but their defense is really bad.
     
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  18. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Indy offensive line has now gone 185 pass attempts without one sack. Last sack was October 4th. That's the longest streak in the NFL since 2010.

    Would love to see Tannehill have one year playing behind that kind of line.
     
  19. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I'd counter some of that with: when you're starting 3 backups on your oline, and you're missing three starting receivers, how creative can you be? The oline doesn't generally block enough to allow plays to really develop. I think a legitimate gripe with Gase would be that his "system" seems to require perfection from every player on every play. He's always harping on guys not knowing the plays well enough, or just not executing right. But perhaps it's that is system is too complex or requires to much perfection to actually be viable on the football field.
     
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  20. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Pro-football-reference apparently looked at which of 5 QB-related stats stay most consistent (are most correlated with each other) after a QB changes teams, and they found that the one with highest correlation was sack percentage:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index2ad6.html?p=4152

    Correlations after switching teams:
    Sack percentage: 0.31
    Completion percentage: 0.25
    Yards per attempt: 0.20
    TD percentage: 0.12
    INT percentage: 0.10

    In other words, the QB has a lot to do with how many sacks he takes, at least more than those other stats when you put him on a new team. So don't expect Tannehill to have as few sacks as Luck playing behind Luck's OL.
     
  21. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I didn’t know having a 3-6 record was hitting the jackpot
     
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  22. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    With respect, I appreciate your optimism, and who knows, you may be correct. However, I see us being more than a QB away from being one heck of a football team. IMO, since we are last in the league at stopping the run, we still need to shore up and maybe completely rebuild our front 7. Furthermore, I would like us to do the same with our OL. I am thinking lets get back to the basics and be a team that you cannot run the ball up the middle on, and a team that can and will run the ball up the middle on you. I realize the league evolves, but I want some BEEF in the trenches. Give me two guys like Timbo and Gardner in the middle and a legit middle LB (not dumbass McMillian) and I think we will be on our way on defense.
     
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  23. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    This team is going to finish 8-8 or 7-9 the bad thing about it is even if RT comes back there's no way he can be on the roster next year making 26 mill, if he is that's a huge mistake by management. This team is nowhere near the elite teams, we limped in the playoffs 2 years ago and got the holly hell beat out of us in Pittsburgh. This team as it stands even with RT cannot beat a playoff ready Pitt, chargers, pats, kc or Houston i don't even think if we played tenn again in a game that doesn't last 14 hours (or whatever it was) and played in Tenn with marriota playing the whole game honestly. It will all be on their turf and it just extends the season for one more game. I am all for winning and no one ever just losses on purpose. But this team is not an elite team, whether it be injuries, coaches or talent whatever it is its going to be the same mediocre football season and im really not quite sure how to fix it. Theres no qb's in the draft worth selling the farm for 26 mill is far to much for RT and a rebuild it seems Miami is between a rock and a hard place and its frustrating. I just don't have an answer and it seems Miami doesn't either we keep just putting band aids on issues and never really fixing the wound.

    I see it playing out like this:

    indy - we lose a tight one 24-17 (Indy will be in the hunt for the division if they take out Tenn this week)
    buffalo - win 28-17
    Pats - loss 28-10 (they get healthy and spread it out and win to spread the difference in the division to rest a game or 2 down the stretch)
    Minnesota - loss 24-14 (Minnesota gets hot after the bye week and they get us at a good time for their run at the playoffs.
    Jax - this is my toss up game i see this as us getting blown out or winning a tight one 17-14 win
    buffalo - loss in a snowy cold 10-3 game (just for the plain fact of shady mccoy)

    end up 7-9
     
  24. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    So you're predicting luck will get sacked 21 times in the next 7 games to stay with his average sacks for the colts. I mean shouldn't there be a near 100% correlation if you stay on the same team
     
  25. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    It's the Browns. Their standards are slightly lower
     
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  26. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    It's a great year to fix our dline. There may be 20 to 25 defensive linemen with first round grades this year. If you hit on each pick you could build an entire defensive line by round four. I think we absolutely have to use at least two early picks on defensive line this year. It would be criminal to let this year's bounty go unused, especially at what one might argue is our greatest position of need
     
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  27. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    No the correlation could be either high or low from year to year even if the players/coach etc.. are all the same because of random variation, which could either be high (in which case the correlation could be low) or vice versa. What you need to do is to see if the set of sacks for each game played in 2018 are "too unlikely" (i.e., less than 5% likely) to come from the same distribution as the set of sacks for each game played pre-2018. You can do that with a 2-sample t-test for unequal sample sizes.

    At the moment the result is actually in favor of saying something is different this year (doesn't tell you what, but it's more likely it's the OL instead of Luck because Luck has always been good in the pocket). The probability the two sets of game-by-game sack data come from the same distribution at the moment is 4.31% so less than 5%. We'll just have to see if that result holds up at the end of the year.
     
  28. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    Who's is there offensive line coach up there? Maybe we should hire him as head coach!
     
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  29. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Dave DeGuglielmo. Lol he was our oline coach last year and Bill Parcels first two. I still think that first year under sparano was the best oline we have had in two decades....and then injuries crushed it deja vu
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2018
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  30. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    so the variation would be higher if Tannehill were to go to the Colts meaning he could very well have less sacks then Luck as well as more
     
  31. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Right.. but given the correlation in sack percentage of 0.31 after switching teams it’s more likely that Tannehill’s sack rate with Luck’s OL will be higher than Luck’s. In other words that distribution is skewed with higher probability above Luck’s current sack rate than below.
     
  32. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Is 0.31 high? It seems like a small number to me.
     
  33. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    No it’s on the low end as one would expect. I mean.. you’re changing teams! And that’s in addition to natural variation.
     
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  34. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Really?
    Andrew Luck’s best single season record in terms of passer rating 2014’s 96.5. All time, not adjusted for era, that season is the 120th best single season by a QB in history. QBs of the caliber of Damon Huard, Tyrod Taylor, Brian Griese, and Matt Schaub have all posted better seasons acording to passer rating.

    His career passer rating is 88.7 which is 18th all time, which seems impressive until you realize that if you adjust old school QBs for era he’d plummet into oblivion. Even then his career passer rating is way behind the current Elite Four - Aaron Rodgers (103.5), Russel Wilson (99.7), Drew Brees (97.6) and Tom Brady (97.5). The QBs ranked 15, 16 and 17 all time are Matt Schaub, Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick, who are all contemporary to Luck and that’s who he should be compared to.

    If you look at his league ranking according to passer rating they are
    2018 #15 (through week 10)
    2017 x
    2016 #9
    2015 #32
    2014 #7
    2013 #18
    2012 #26
    So on average he has been the 18th most efficient QB in the league since he entered it (which is not including 2017 which some people would argue should be taken into account since the Colts were on the hook for his salary that year)

    If you look at other efficiency methods like ANY/A Luck comes out even worse than using passer rating.

    If you want to argue QB winz then Luck is so far behind the leaders you would need the Hubble telescope to find him.
     
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  35. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Not just that, but it is the highest of the measured variables. Like the old story about hunting Lions, you don’t have to be fast, just faster than the others you are with.
     
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  36. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Okay, but with that kind of DL depth in the draft, why not spend at least your first rounder on another position of need? QB? CB? LB? You can build your DL in the second and third rounds, right? Maybe even the third and fourth rounds?
     
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  37. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Here's the thing- the title of the thread was, "What do I want to happen?" Well, I want us to win the Super Bowl....that's what I always want.

    If you asked me what I think would happen, I'd probably tell you we'll go 7-9 with Oz to close out the year or maybe up to 9-7 with Tannehill. And maybe that's good enough for a Wild Card...who knows? We'd need to get a ton of names back though to be able to really compete in the playoffs.
     
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  38. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    that's a legitimate strategy also, although you probably give up a chance for an all pro that way or at least lower the odds. You'll see in my sig, I want DEXTER LAWRENCE from Clemson. If we get him, our biggest problem on defense is one step closer to being fixed...namely teams running up the middle on us. you cant run on this guy. Also the Patriots will be looking at him so its win win for us. one we fix a need and two prevent the patriots from getting him.

    but you could go your way and draft another position with the first or second knowing there will still be quality available in later rounds although i wouldnt pick a QB with a first this year. One we're middle of the pack draftwise and two its a weak year for QBs. If you really want to draft a QB, I would wait until the 3rd, 4th or 5th and have him battle Luke Falk or Fales for the final QB spot. 2020 is better for QB prospects so keep your powder dry
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2018
  39. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Looking at numbers can get you in real trouble sometimes, you must have the ability to isolate a players skillset and project what it looks like with proper components.
     
  40. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    Oops. You are absolutely correct. I don't know what the heck I was thinking. I read the title too, and then circled back around to my usual, how would I fix the Dolphins spiel. I am a one track record and only think about me and what I want. Sorry about that!
     
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