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Tomorrow Defines the Season for Gase/Tannehll

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Nov 24, 2018.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I know folks are all over the map in terms of supporting this team and it's current lineup. I'm not going to make an argument here either way since nothing we have to say actually matters. What does matter? The Colts game tomorrow. I honestly don't think there's a bigger game this season for Gase and Tannehill.

    Why?

    We just sludged through five uninspiring weeks with Osweiler. He played good enough to win a few games in that stretch, but the offense has fallen to pieces and put way too much pressure on the D and special teams to win ballgames. As of tomorrow though, the injuries no longer matter...who's out simply doesn't carry any more weight with RT and somewhat of a line on the field. Tunsil back is huge....James would be great as well but we did okay at right tackle last week without him. But it just doesn't matter because we have to win.

    Technically, we can still lose this game and have a winning season. Heck, we can lose and still make the playoffs. But it's not about that anymore because we have our franchise QB on the field. We waited two years for this and he went 3-0 when healthy, then choked with an injured shoulder against a Cinci team we had dominated. Was it the injury to a superstar that caused the downfall....or is Tannehill just not the guy?

    I think most Dolphins fans will reach that conclusion tomorrow at 4:25 PM. If you're on the fence right now, you should be off it in about 31 hours one way or the other.

    This game speaks just as much about Gase as well. We are beat up and we are missing superstars....but I don't care. We had two weeks to prepare for this game and I expect to see magic. I have no idea who will be the superstar on offense....Carroo? OLeary? Gisecki? Parker? It doesn't matter because if Gase is who we have hoped he is, someone will step up and win this ballgame. It can be ugly, it can be messy...that stuff doesn't matter. The only thing that does matter is Gase and his franchise QB and three years of promises that he's a superstar on the mend.

    It's put up or shut up time- show me Miami. Show me I put my faith in the right personnel by destroying the Colts. Your job likely depends on it. There are no more do-overs, no more forgiveness...we've waited patiently on the coat-tails of that 2016 season long enough. Finishng 4-2 is acceptable....5-1 will restore some faith. But it has to start tomorrow or there's nothing left to buy into.

    Beat the Colts or GTFO of Miami. Hopefully that's a clear enough message of what the fan-base expects.
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2018
  2. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    If we lose this game the playoffs are too unlikely to even discuss.

    I say we just win and go from there....:2guns:
     
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  3. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    Sadly I expect colts blowout but will gladly eat crow if I'm wrong.
     
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  4. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I do as well...but I'm hoping we're wrong and Gase can show why he's viewed as an offensive mastermind. It's really now or never though.
     
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  5. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Part of a coaches job is to motivate on the road in big games..

    Part of a qbs job is to play well on the road in a hostile environment..

    So far during the tenure of both dolphins they have failed.

    Clock is ticking.
     
  6. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    Well...Keyfin's post got me thinking ( I know, I know, I may have hurt myself), and I looked back at 2016 to see if Gase came up with any new wrinkles for the game after the bye. Since last year we didn't have one due the Hurricane I only had one year to look at. Unfortunately, at first glance, the circumstances back then won't be as helpful to predicting what we might see this year (or will they?). Before the bye, we played the Bills and Ajayi ran all over them for 214 yards and a TD. RT had a decent game passing and threw for 204 yards and a TD. His rating was 99.4. After the bye we played the Jets, and as anyone could predict, we tried to run the ball with Ajayi. He had 111 yards rushing and a TD. RT was just okay with 149 yards passing and a 86.8 rating. We did managed to win the game, but that was mainly because we were able to get Fitzpatrick to turn the ball over with 2 interceptions.

    So, looking back, Gase did what probably any HC would do, and not change up the game plan too much during the bye. With the way he was running, who wouldn't stick with feeding Ajayi the ball? This year, we don't have an emerging Ajayi, but I think we do have Gore, so I expect to see a heavy dose of him, if we can get it going. However, things are a little different this year because we haven't been that effective throwing the ball deep with Osweiler. Even by inserting RT, I don't expect the defense to change their strategy of stopping the run and forcing the QB to beat them with their arm. Why would they? RT is coming back from injury and his shoulder still hurts when he throws the ball. If I am a defensive coordinator, as with any game my goal would be to stop the run, but because we haven't been effective throwing the ball deep and RT has an injured throwing shoulder, I would cheat up on the short routes, and have my CBs cover tight. If RT can manage to hit a deep throw or two then I will change things up, but until he can force me to change it up, I would stick with forcing him and his injured arm to prevail.

    Of course, I hope I am wrong, but it could be a long day as a dolphin fan. Until we can all see if RT is back to form, I expect Gase to protect him by getting the ball out of his hands as quick as possible. This probably plays right into the defenses' hands, but in a way what is the guy supposed to do? I understand why Gase would want to play it safe. That said, I would love it if Gase game out with a whole new and aggressive game plan to try and catch Indy off their guard. Something like a heavy dose of our TEs, and Drake/ Ballage in the flat or on a wheel route. Open up the whole playbook kind of thing. That's kind of why I went through this exercise. I didn't really discover anything new or insightful, but it was kind of fun thinking about what Gase might do nevertheless.
     
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  7. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    Yea I agree.The offence was only averaging 20 pts per game before tannehill got hurt with healthy weapons so will see.Not to mention this team has been terrible on the road under gase.
     
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  8. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Here's how I see it- the motto this season was speed....fast, dirty greased lightning in a bottle with Stills, Grant and Wilson. That's obviously out and we're essentially back to that 2016 roster with a decent line, one fast receiver and a pretty solid RB duo. We can beat you with the double tight ends and a power running game, or we could try to attack you over the middle with short, accurate throws to Parker and Carroo. If it were me, I'd have to go with option A....let Drake and Gore go to work and earn their paychecks. Let Tannehill ease into the game, test his arm a few times and then let it rip when the D is crowding the LOS. That's all we really have at this point.

    Indy is a 3-win team that has struggled just as much as we have. I think the true key to the game rests on defense....can we finally get a pass rush going with the front four and force Luck into uncomfortable situations? Can our young LB's stick to their lanes and not allow the big play? That's what it all really comes down to....keeping the score close enough for RT to find a rhythm and win it in the 4th quarter.

    If I were a betting man, it would be almost impossible to bet against Indy. But with so many backs against the wall in Miami, I think we're going to show something special and kick the snot out of the Colts. Maybe it's finally wildcat time....or maybe Tannehill takes 5-8 carries to keep drives alive. I don't know what that x-factor will be but I'm guessing that Gase will come out as aggressive as possible. My mind says we get blown out in this one yet my heart says we win a hard-fought battle.

    Again though- if I had to place a wager right now...I'd be Indy all the way. For Gase and RT's sake, let's hope I'm wrong and they figured out a lot more than we expected the past two weeks.
     
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  9. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Ryan Tannehill has never shown the football acumen to run on purpose off the script..

    He also doesn’t multitask while in play, pump fakes shoulder deeks are at a minimum..

    It’s a big reason imo why he stays an average to below average player.

    If he somehow has a fu##in simple revelation he actually might be able to help us win the freakin game.
     
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  10. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I don't disagree- but I do think he has it in him. He just needs to get out of his own way mentally and play football. That's always been his biggest hurdle...stop being the "yes man" and just be the quarterback.
     
  11. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I haven’t seen enough out of our pass rush or believe RTH can win a shootout vs a healthy Luck to have any confidence in winning this game.
     
  12. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He’s been encouraged to do exactly what I’m saying to no avail.
     
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  13. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    I don't think it is as clear cut as we'll know for sure after tomorrows game. I do think (I mentioned this earlier) that this is a crossroads sort of game for Tannehill in terms of his future with us. I don't think his career is on the line by any means, but this game, and it's outcome are probably going to shape our draft needs drastically. I for one hope he catches fire this game and never looks back, finishes the season on fire and leads us into the playoffs. That would be fantastic. However......If you're asking me what I think will happen tomorrow? I don't know...So many different circumstances. I mean it's very possible the I feel one way at the end of the third quarter and then completely different by the end of the fourth. That's how much of a mind**** it is watching Ryan Tannehill. The guy will go into the fourth quarter with a 20-24, 235, 2 TD, 0 INT statline and throw two picks in the fourth. That is vintage Ryan Tannehill....We'll be down by a field goal with a 1:40 remaining with a chance to win the game and he'll take a sack on a 3rd and 1 that leads to a 4th and 10 only to badly overthrow Kenny Stills on the next final crucial play. That is basically Ryan Tannehill. However....In 2016 he did some magical franchise QB things. That specific Rams game comes to mind (happened right around this time two years ago). He was bad for three quarters and then won the game for us in the 4th. It was a complete opposite of what he normally does in big games which is play well for three quarters and stink in the 4th or....Just completely shrink under the pressure and have an awful game start to finish. There are about four different versions of Ryan Tannehill that I have narrowed down.
    They are....
    3/4 franchise QB/4th quarter awfulness lets draft a QB
    Cautious check down Tannehill that can't throw ten yards, but doesn't throw a pick, but also can't get us in the end zone either
    Completely awful start to finish Ryan Tannehill
    Slow start, finish strong Ryan Tannehill.

    I do realize that the defense is going to have to play as well for us. This isn't all on Tannehill, but his level at which he plays will be key regardless. I'd like it if we aren't relying on the defense to bail us out at the end. I'd rather control the game from the offensive side of the ball which is what Gase was supposed to be known for doing.

    Either way, we'll see one of those Tannehills tomorrow. Hopefully we catch lightening in a bottle, and he plays a great game start to finish and the win streak begins.
     
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  14. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    First game back from an injury isn’t going to define his term as a dolphin.
     
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  15. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Tannehill's had more than enough time to define himself: he's an average QB that can play well if all the surrounding pieces are there, but if those pieces aren't there you can't rely on him to win a game for you. In other words we need to find ourselves a true franchise QB.

    This game isn't about Tannehill. It should be obvious by now he needs replacement. This game (and the rest of the season) is about Gase.
     
  16. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    he's an above average QB who has never been surrounded by all the pieces. He's not Rodgers or Brady but you don't need that. You need someone of Tannehill's level and then you have to build the rest of the team. Even if you have Rodgers you have to build the rest of the team. You don't win a Superbowl with weaknesses. Look at Rodgers and Brees. One super bowl each. That's it. And that's when the teams had a running game and defenses. If franchise QBs were that key that's all who would ever win it. Instead foles and flacco have won recently. There are no shortcuts. You have to build a complete team. Offense and defense. And until you do your only focus should be filling holes and depth. To worry about upgrading from good to great is a waste of time
     
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  17. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Statistically he's about as average a QB as you'll find.

    And it's a complete fiction that he's never been surrounded by good pieces. In 2016 he had Landry, Stills, Ajayi and a decent enough OL during his so-called "great" 8-game stretch, and he still ranked 12th by passer rating among all starting QB's best 8-game stretches (same ranking as his overall ranking that year). Anyway.. I'm not changing your mind obviously, but for me it's absolutely clear: Tannehill's average and we need a better replacement.
     
  18. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    12th is above average by definition in a 32 team league and honestly the way you view football is the way Ray Charles views picasso. Stats are useless for individual performance in football
     
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  19. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    That's one year. From 2012-2016, if you measure it properly by z-scores (standard deviations above/below the mean) and weight it by passing attempts per year you get a career rating of -0.1269 which is very slightly below average. That's not including this year (can't do that yet because I don't know what the standard deviation will be at the end of this year), but his rating right now is below league average so his z-score for 2018 is also very slightly negative.

    And no stats are not useless for measuring individual performances. The reason passer rating over a long career (e.g., 10+ years) correlates so well with what many people think are the best QB's is because it's useful for measuring individual performances, but only with VERY large sample size. I've said this before but the logic behind that is that some unknown X% of any team stat is due to the individual, and the larger that X is, the smaller sample size is needed for it to be strongly correlated with individual performance. We don't know what that X is for QB's and passer rating, but it's apparently large enough that passer rating with large sample size is useful for measuring QB performance.
     
  20. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Since you used 2016 because the premise was the only year he had a complete offense to work with l don't know why you're going back to the rest of his career where he was given garbage to work with.

    Regardless, once again, statistics are fine when you keep them to units such as offense or defense but are utterly useless when trying to isolate an individual's worth. There are too many moving pieces that have an influence on each individual play. You refuse to accept that. That's fine. Pursue your fountain of youth quest. When you analyze teams or units stats work. When you try to analyze individuals it's garbage in garbage out
     
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  21. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    2016 wasn't the only year he had a decent surrounding cast. One can argue he had at least an average surrounding cast in 2014 or 2015. Point is, it wasn't somehow so bad you couldn't evaluate Tannehill as a QB. And we don't need a QB that NEEDS a great surrounding cast.

    Also "garbage in garbage out" refers to the data, not the method of analysis, and the data here is fine so it doesn't apply. The method of analysis is also decent too, limited primarily by sample size which isn't that big of an issue with 2766 passing attempts for Tannehill.

    Either way, just keep something in mind. So many people here who like to denigrate stats act like anyone who "knows" the game would agree with their view, yet they disagree amongst each other lol. Have to first make sure everyone who supposedly understands the game has the same opinion given the same data. And that's certainly not true with Tannehill. A LOT of observers think he's not good enough. It's not like there's some serious discrepancy here between what many see and what the stats say over his career (obviously you don't think so).
     
  22. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    In computer science, garbage in, garbage out (GIGO) is where flawed, or nonsense input data produces nonsense output or "garbage".

    The principle also applies more generally to all analysis and logic, in that arguments are unsound if their premises are flawed.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garbage_in,_garbage_out


    how's Rodgers doing this year. Why arent the Packers 9-2. They have a good defense and apparently Rodgers doesnt need a great surrounding cast?

     
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  23. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Right.. it refers to bad input data, and in statistics that's actually precisely what it refers to, which is the context here. Regardless, there's nothing wrong with the logic that a team stat becomes correlated with individual performance given large enough sample size. So no matter how you look at it there's no "garbage in garbage out" here.

    W/L record actually requires even larger sample size. With passer rating you start seeing "statistically significant" differences even at ~150 passing attempts, though it's obviously better to have many years worth of data. With W/L record it's much larger because each game is a data point. Still.. you can see that who you think are the best QB's tend to have good W/L records over a career. So that's another example of a team stat needing "large enough sample size" to correlate well with individual performance (i.e., over a career).
     
  24. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    dan fouts was 86-84 over his career. win/ loss has very little to do with how good a QB is. He just had the bad luck of playing for the Chargers
     
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  25. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Warren Moon was another with 102-101 in regular season and 3-7 in the playoffs. But that's to be expected since the correlation isn't perfect. I mean there IS variation around the mean! Check this list out to see how likely it is that good/great QB's have good W/L records:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_National_Football_League_career_quarterback_wins_leaders

    It's generally the case that the two are correlated, over a long career that is.

    btw.. at the time I'm linking to that someone "hacked" wiki by replacing Tom Brady with a guy named "Garrett Dennis" who plays for "Male High School" LOLOL. It'll be taken down soon but that's supposed to be Tom Brady and the NE Patriots.
     
  26. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I get your general point, but don’t see how you can say it all hinges on this game. Sure. We’re mathematically still in it... but we’re essentially out without a lot of luck.

    But you’re hinging everything on the qbs first game back in five years? After a game we couldn’t protect him without our starting LT or RT.

    And he hasn’t played in five weeks now.

    I’m not trying to defend the guy here... but the fact you want to say his future and gases depends on this game only... is odd to me. There’s plenty of other ways to have already come to this conclusion. I suspect tomorrow will be going thru the motions for us. What do you really expect from a guy who has played essential three games in almost the last two years when he hasn’t been all that above average to beging with.
     
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  27. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    lol....garrett dennis. yeah on this list i see a lot of overrated QBs who were fortunate enough to be on good teams. I personally never liked Warren Moon. Thought he threw too many interceptions at critical points in games. If you look at the rosters he played on, you would be amazed. For a few years his Oilers had what seemed like all pros at every position on offense and defense. It was crazy. I still think to this day the Glanville/ Moon Oilers had the greatest roster next to the 1984 49ers. The difference was Glanville/ Walsh and Moon/ Montana. Conversely another Oiler/ Titan is one of the most underappreciated QBs ever...Steve McNair. That guy was better than Peyton and Brady for a couple of years before injuries took their toll. I look at stats and I see people highly overrated and underrated and what I see those stats reflecting is the talent surrounding the QB mostly which is why I say stats are fine for macro but they suck when doing micro. Its almost like general relativity vs quantum mechanics. One set of formulas works great in one realm but not so much in the other
     
  28. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Why is anyone pointing at Landry as a difference maker or as evidence of being surrounded with good players?
     
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  29. jdallen1222

    jdallen1222 Well-Known Member

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    With Landry and Ajayi on the field at the same time you had MUCHO yac potential.
     
  30. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Landry was not a game changer. That's really the point. 30 years from now no one is going to be talking about Jarvis Landry. If your offense is depending on Landry, your offense is in serious trouble.
     
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  31. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    Oh Don’t get me wrong I’m no Tannehill Zealot I think he’s a serviceable quarterback but not one who will win you the Super Bowl unless you Build a complete team around him he will never Elevate put the team on his back and win crucial games. That said trying to say that this one game will define His tenure in Miami is ludicrous. The guy is coming off of an injury and will probably be rusty against a team that is improving every week
     
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  32. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    I like how you summed up RT as a QB, but sort of disagree with the last part. I understand that he is coming off an injury, but when are we (me included) going to stop making excuses for him and Gase? I mean, it's time for him to decide if he is going to fish or cut bait. Are we going to progress as a team or not?
     
  33. jdallen1222

    jdallen1222 Well-Known Member

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    He sure wasn't, but would you say he wasn't a good player?
     
  34. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    He's not someone that I would point to as evidence that Tannehill had the help he needed.
     
  35. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I don't want to start a Tannehill debate, but one thing the stats don't show is the various offenses he's been in and the changes he's been asked to make. Year 1 and 2 he was asked to be a pure pocket passer behind a sub-standard line....where defenders were telling our receivers their routes pre-snap. Year 3 we told him to scramble a lot more and we ran the run option every other play. Year 4 was an entire new offense where we added audibles and lots of new responsibilities.

    If you want to compare RT to Brady or Big Ben...two guys who have run the identical offense for the past five plus years, I don't see it as an apples to apples comparison. And remember, I've NEVER been a huge Tannehill fan so this is not me saying he's been handicapped or whatever. My only point is that it's not a black/white comparison.

    He's improved in the pocket and his deep balls have looked great- but Tannehill obviously hasn't put it all together yet. In my personal opinion, he's so over-coached to never make a mistake that he's simply going through the motions instead of reacting and being an athlete. That's why some of his best plays ever have come in rare moments where the pocket collapses and he's running for his life. He doesn't play with that drive/intensity for four quarters though and that makes all the difference.

    I think today will "define" Tannehill since Gase is running out of time. This is the 3rd major injury of the past 3 years and I don't think the "just wait until he's healthy" thing will last much longer. For me, it's really now or never and I think a lot of fans feel the same way. We just need to see it all come together before that huge salary next year....and I think it has to start today.
     
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  36. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You know that's not what will happen. If Tannehill plays poorly excuses will be made yet again. In fact you've already heard it in this thread: "first game back from injury" lol. It doesn't matter how many games or years you wait there will be excuses. You've been on this board long enough to know how many times people said it's "now or never" only to hear more excuses when things didn't work out.

    Frankly I'm tired of it and can't give that way of thinking any more respect. With Gase I agree the season isn't over yet and will wait to see if he gets us into the playoffs, but Tannehill is in year 7 now (let that sink in). I've seen enough.
     
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  37. Dolphin Dundee

    Dolphin Dundee Well-Known Member

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    It's kind of like the Henne days most people saw the Dolphins were never going anywhere with him..Yet some diehard fans on this or another board would defend him to death. Good times!
     
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  38. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I'm in the same boat- I just need to see it or move on. I'll root for whoever we start at QB1 but if that person isn't getting it done, then my focus turns towards the coach. To me, the RT thing is more about Gase than anything. We were stuck with Cutler because of that faith in RT, and we were stuck with Oz for the same reason. This thread never was about Tannehill as much as it was the promise of what we'd see with Tannehill's return. All of Gase's eggs are in RT's basket, so to speak, and I need to see that my confidence in Gase was warranted.

    He got the bye. He has his line back (sort of). He has his QB. Now prove to us that we were correct in being patient.

    I'm expecting the defense to really show up today so maybe this whole thread is a moot point. Get us that "W" by any means necessary and I'm still a happy camper. A "L" means I'm genuinely on the fence for the first time in Gase's tenure.
     
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  39. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    So Tannehill should come out throw for 400 yards and 7 TDS. That would be a reasonable expectation. If he doesn't hit those numbers, any reasons people give I will label as "excuses" and then ignore what they say.
     
    adamprez2003 likes this.
  40. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
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    Nov 1, 2009
    Not his term, no. But it will define his future. We've listened to the hype for five weeks now...after listening to it for six additional years. And I just don't think excuses apply anymore.
     
    Surfs Up 99 likes this.

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