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Dolphins vs. Bills @Miami - Game Thread

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Dec 1, 2018.

  1. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Weather via Wunderground:
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    Chance of Rain 15%
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    Injuries:
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    NFL rankings
    Bills Dolphins
    Total offense: 273.9 yards (31st) 313.6 (28th)
    Rush offense: 114.1 yards (17th) 106.5 (20th)
    Pass offense: 159.8 yards (31st) 207.1 (27th)
    Points scored: 14.6 (31st) 20.3 (25th)
    Total defense: 305.0 yards (2nd) 398.0 (29th)
    Rush defense: 111.3 yards (15th) 139.8 (29th)
    Pass defense: 193.7 yards (1st) 258.2 (21st)
    Points allowed: 24.7 (17th) 25.7 (T22nd)

    Individual leaders
    Rushing

    Bills: LeSean McCoy 128 carries, 426 yards; Chris Ivory 83-294; Josh Allen 48-254; Marcus Murphy 36-198.
    Dolphins: Frank Gore 131-595; Kenyan Drake 89-408; Ryan Tannehill 22-105.

    Passing

    Bills: Josh Allen 83 of 158, 992 yards, 3 TDs, 5 interceptions; Derek Anderson 42 of 70, 465 yards, 0 TDs, 4 interceptions; Nathan Peterman 44 of 81, 296 yards, 1 TD, 7 interceptions; Matt Barkley 15 of 25, 232 yards, 2 TDs, 0 interceptions.
    Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill 102 of 154, 1,176 yards, 10 TDs, 5 interceptions; Brock Osweiler 113 of 178, 1,247 yards, 6 TDs, 4 interceptions.

    Receiving

    Bills: Zay Jones 37 catches, 392 yards; LeSean McCoy 25-198; Kelvin Benjamin 21-334; Charles Clay 19-169; Jason Croom 15-147; Chris Ivory 12-159; Andre Holmes 12-157.
    Dolphins: Danny Amendola 48-469; Kenyan Drake 38-298; Albert Wilson 26-391; Jakeem Grant 21-268; Kenny Stills 20-332.

    Bills schedule
    9/9 at Ravens, L 3-47
    9/16 vs. Chargers, L 20-31
    9/23 at Vikings, W 27-6
    9/30 at Packers, L 0-22
    10/7 vs. Titans, W 13-12
    10/14 at Texans, L 13-20
    10/21 at Colts, L 5-37
    10/29 vs. Patriots, L 6-25
    11/4 vs. Bears, L 9-41
    11/11 at NY Jets, W 41-10
    11/25 vs. Jaguars, W 24-21

    Full written preview from a Buffalo perspective over at the Democrat and Chronicle :

    Some snippets from the above linked summary:

    "1. Is Josh Allen ready to take advantage of a porous Miami defense? Allen hasn’t exactly had it easy in his rookie season in terms of the defenses he’s had to face in his six starts. Using the points allowed category, Allen has started against the Chargers (ranked 4th), Vikings (10th), Packers (16th), Titans (6th), Texans (5th) and Jaguars (8th). In passing yards allowed, the Chargers, Titans, Jaguars and Packers all rank in the top 10. Now he comes up against a Dolphins defense that has failed most of the season. Miami is tied for 22nd in points allowed, 29th in total yards allowed, 30th in passing yards per attempt, 29th in sacks and 29th in rushing yards allowed. It stands to reason that there will be opportunities for Allen to eat in this game, provided that offensive coordinator Brian Daboll gives him the opportunity. By incorporating young players like Robert Foster and Isaiah McKenzie into the mix, and de-emphasizing Kelvin Benjamin, the Bills have increased their speed at the position and defenses now have to be concerned with covering the whole field. Allen has proven he’s not averse to throwing downfield, and this will be intriguing to watch."

    "2. Can the Bills run defense handle the Miami attack? Ryan Tannehill continues to be a mediocrity, and he’s also just getting back up to speed after missing five games, so the Dolphins will probably try to gouge the Bills on the ground with Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake. Last week, the Bills had no answers for Jacksonville’s Leonard Fournette and were lucky that he got himself ejected. The Jaguars gained 226 yards, the second time Buffalo has allowed at least 200 yards rushing this season. One of the issues has been the inconsistent play in the middle, particularly rookie MLB Tremaine Edmunds whose aggressiveness and inexperience has been exploited at times. When he over-pursues, there are wide gaps between the tackles, and several backs have poured through. Of course, it also raises the issue of the performance of the Buffalo DTs who too often have been pushed back. In six games this season, the Bills have yielded average yards per carry numbers above 4.0 and they are 2-4 in those games. Both Gore, who’s having a superb season at age 35, and Drake are powerful runners who could pose problems."

    "3. Will the Bills continue to win the turnover battle? This is a game that figures to be close, and it may come down to a critical mistake. In the last two weeks the Bills have forced four turnovers and have not given away the ball, and not surprisingly, they won both games. But as we all know, turnovers were a major problem in the first nine games (the Nathan Peterman factor) and the Bills remain well down the list in turnover margin at minus-5 with a ghastly 22 giveaways, tied for the second most in the NFL. Miami has been much better in this area as it ranks tied for seventh in margin at plus-5. The Dolphins are 4-1 when they win the turnover battle, while Buffalo is 0-6 when it loses the turnover battle. Miami has the second-most interceptions with 17, so Allen will have to be sharp in his recognition of coverages, and then with his downfield reads. "

    "This is a tough one to get a read on because both teams are probably not going to the playoffs, both have been wildly inconsistent in their performance, and neither offense is proficient (Miami ranks 28th in yards, Buffalo 31st). Buffalo’s defense has been better, but that advantage may be nullified by the fact that the Dolphins are playing at home where they’re 4-1 this season including an overtime victory over Chicago, a team that beat the Bills by 32 points. One thing to watch will be the energy level. Miami is coming off a soul-crushing loss to the Colts when it blew a 10-point lead in the final nine minutes, a defeat that severely damaged its playoff chances. Meanwhile, the Bills have been a rejuvenated team, sandwiching their bye week around solid wins over the Jets and Jaguars, and they seem to be ascending where the Dolphins are descending. The return of Allen last week provided a major boost because ultimately, he was the difference in that victory. The 75-yard TD to Robert Foster, the 14-yard QB keeper TD, and the 45-yard scramble midway through the fourth quarter were the defining plays. He looks more comfortable, more confident, and perhaps we’re seeing the beginning of his arrival as a legitimate NFL quarterback. Then again, he’s a rookie, so who really knows what to expect? MY PICK: Bills 20, Dolphins 17."

    ODDSSHARK PREVIEW:

    "The 5-6 SU Miami Dolphins are still alive in the AFC wild-card race, but a loss to the division rival Buffalo Bills in Week 13 could knock them out of what’s shaping up to be one of the tightest postseason races we’ve seen in quite some time. Sportsbooks opened the Fins as 5-point home favorites with a total of 40."

    "DOLPHINS ARE FINDING WAYS TO PRODUCE VS DIVISION RIVALS
    This is the first meeting between the AFC East clubs this season. Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill returned to the team last Saturday after missing time due to a shoulder injury, yet Miami wasn’t able to pull out a win in a 27-24 road setback to the Indianapolis Colts. Tannehill fared well, however, passing for 204 yards and two touchdowns without an interception on 17-of-25 passing.

    Miami has been finding success against its division when playing at home lately, going 6-2 SU in its last eight vs the AFC East in the Sunshine State. The Dolphins are a paltry 1-6-1 ATS in their previous eight games at home after playing consecutive road games, so tread carefully backing Miami on the spread this week."

    "
    ALLEN RETURNING TO THE BILLS IS GOOD NEWS FOR BUFFALO BETTORS
    The Bills were an afterthought a few weeks ago, and while they likely won’t be able to make a playoff push, they have won consecutive games over the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets to improve to 4-7 in 2018. Josh Allen returned to action after missing five weeks and passed for 160 yards and a touchdown on 8-of-19 passing while adding 99 rushing yards and a touchdown on 13 carries. The Dolphins defense has been a weak spot this year, so don’t expect Buffalo to take its foot off the gas pedal on offense.

    When it comes to the total, betting trends are leaning to the OVER. The OVER is 5-1 in the past six meetings between the Bills and Dolphins, with an average combined score of 50.2 points. The OVER is also 4-1 in the Fins’ previous five home games, with an average combined score of 45.2 points."

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    Last edited: Dec 1, 2018
  2. Dolphin Dundee

    Dolphin Dundee Well-Known Member

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    I see a Miami win just because of this thread opening alone!
     
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  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    We're 5 point home favorites? That's a first.....
     
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  4. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    upload_2018-12-2_1-50-44.png
     
  5. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Slightly left of center
    Galant FTW!

    BEST> GAMEDAY THREAD>EVER!!!
     
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  6. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Slightly left of center
    But the Fluffy Hoes are our Kryptonite. Always supposed to be easy. Never are.

    Did I see right? #2 overall defense? The Jills???
     
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  7. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Thats just ishy ish! All this itching about THill and Gase is bull puckey compared to this ishy ish!

    I just watched the PAC-12 championship game. 1 FG each team and a Pick 6 the only scoring. 2 really good D's was one of the best games I've enjoyed all year.

    Nevermind replacing Gase. Get him a flipping DC for crying out loud. For the love of God did we learn nothing over the last 40 yrs if not that even with Marino...Defense wins championships!!!

    Talent is there. Really. A little thin on the DL at this point but the next 3-5 yrs are going to be good IMO. Where oh where art thou my LeBeau???
     
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  8. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Thank you. I appreciate the sentiment.
    But there have been others who have done proper write-ups. I just copied and pasted.

    Thanks though!
     
    mbsinmisc likes this.
  9. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    looking at that stat sheet we’re plan horrible any team that’s in the 20’s in almost ever category should be justification for major shakeup
     
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  10. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Not.. "nevermind replacing Gase". Gase is the problem. It's been bad for 3 years in a row on both offense and defense:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/mia/index.htm

    And statistically offense is actually slightly more important than defense for winning in the NFL, not just in the regular season but in the playoffs too. In the regular season offensive performance (by points) has about 5% more influence on win% than defense, and if you just look at playoff game winners (any playoff game) average offensive performance is 0.7294 standard deviations above the mean while for defense it's 0.5464, from 1966-2017.

    That difference is even bigger for SB winners: an average of 0.9389 standard deviations above the mean on offense and 0.4072 for the defense. So the real moral here is that you need both an above average offense AND and above average defense, on average, to win the SB, with offense being on average more important than defense.
     
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  11. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    So in your opinion, you believe putting more resources into an offense than a defense?
     
  12. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Overall yes, though the distribution of resources expended is hard to infer from just those stats alone. It's possible the entire difference in resources could be explained by the QB position. Or.. it could be that the QB position takes up so many resources that outside of the QB you'd actually want to emphasize defense over offense. Hard to say dj, and I can't use passer rating here to remove the effect of the QB since that would have to be treated as a team stat for this question.

    But overall (including QB) yes you're statistically better off if your offense is more above average than your defense is, and that translates in one way or another to resources.
     
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  13. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I’m a defensive guy, but I understand balance, my resources would be in Qb and protecting him with a great oline that can do both Protect and move people for the run game, the overall advantages that gives my entire team shouldn’t go unnoticed..I can live with pretty good receivers..

    The rest I go full metal jacket on defense..

    Giants....Bears... Ravens...were some of my favorite most effective teams..

    49’ers and Cowboys were really balanced but I think had better offenses/ more talent that got the job done.
     
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  14. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    I assume not, but is there a way to determine ( statistically) if a good OL has any affect on wins or not? I think that we should really focus on rebuilding ours this year because I think it will have the biggest impact other than QB. The other position I think we need to address is DE.
     
  15. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Aside from coaching, the effect of an OL is probably the hardest thing to estimate statistically. There's really no good way to do it right now. I mean theoretically you could look at the variance in some performance stat (e.g., yards gained or points etc..) when someone on the OL is replaced and get some idea of what the effect is (pre-replacement vs. post-replacement), but that requires massive sample size and a ton of work. So right now .. no way to do it in practice.
     
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  16. Destroyer

    Destroyer There for every play.

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    CBS just picked the Bills as two of their upset picks of the week. Lets go Bills.
     
  17. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    With a good game from Tanny, this should be a decisive win for Miami.
     
  18. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Parker sighting! Glad to see he could go.
     
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  19. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Alright back to .500
     
  20. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Tough shot on Tanny. Can he still throw deep?
     
  21. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Heck of a throw there, and what a grab by Parker.

    I wish they could both be that consistent all the time.
     
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  22. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Great throw, great catch! Where has this offense been all year????
     
  23. Destroyer

    Destroyer There for every play.

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    Two Words: Brock Osweiler
     
  24. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    This was the only game left on the schedule that I felt good about Miami winning. The only game. Unless we see that kind of offense the rest of the year, then we are at least in every game.
     
  25. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Two more: Not healthy
     
  26. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Burke is like, "What do I do? What does Ask Madden say???"
     
  27. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Tanny has no feel in the pocket, I guess that will never change.

    Even worse than ever!! What a stupid play. The time when you run the draw to gain yards for a punt, Gase goes for the deep pass. And Tanny refuses to tuck it and run.

    Great opening drive, and then all the reminders of why Gase/Tanny is not working out so far.
     
  28. Destroyer

    Destroyer There for every play.

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    This team is terrible.
     
  29. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    And that's why Gase ran it last week in that situation.
     
  30. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That's a terrible second drive. Just terrible.

    Tannehill... MOVE. Throw it away. do something other than take a potential safety.
     
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  31. Dolphins1372

    Dolphins1372 Guest

    We’re back
     
  32. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    An oline who can't block and a QB that freezes when things go off script is the perfect storm.
     
  33. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Nope, you can run it there, but last week it was the game ON THE LINE and you had to have the first down. This was about field position right now. In any event, Tanny should have taken off for some yds.
     
  34. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    The Bills just borrowed our patented screen play right there. Lol
     
  35. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Fitz shoulda had that one.
     
  36. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    If you're worried about field position, you aren't throwing in that situation. You're running it to give your punter room to work.
     
  37. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We're giving Allen way too much time. Pass rush is just invisible here.
     
  38. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Offense will get a little better every week as Tannehill shakes off the rust of being out of the game for two years
     
  39. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Is that you, Gase?

    On third and sixteen, yeah a draw is fine. Again, that wasn't the LAST drive for the Phins in this game, so you can go conservative. Against the Colts it was the last real chance Miami had to win the game, so you have to be aggressive.
     
  40. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Catch the ball Drake. Shoulda been throw a split second earlier too though.
     

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