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Dolphins Plans for QB

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Jan 25, 2019.

What Should the Dolphins do at QB?

  1. Ditch RT17 - Draft High this year - QB answer is?

    13 vote(s)
    19.1%
  2. Ditch RT17 - Aim for 2020 - QB answer is?

    21 vote(s)
    30.9%
  3. Ditch RT17 - Aim for 2021 - QB answer is?

    3 vote(s)
    4.4%
  4. Ditch RT17 - Draft first round QB every year until you find one.

    6 vote(s)
    8.8%
  5. Keep RT17 for 2019 - Aim for 2020 - QB answer is?

    9 vote(s)
    13.2%
  6. Keep RT17 for 2019 - Draft High this year - QB answer is?

    7 vote(s)
    10.3%
  7. Keep RT17 for 2019 - Aim for 2021- QB answer is?

    1 vote(s)
    1.5%
  8. Keep RT17 for 2019 - Draft first round QB until you find one?

    7 vote(s)
    10.3%
  9. Keep RT17 and give him another shot - Draft low 2019, high only if doesn't work out.

    1 vote(s)
    1.5%
  1. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    If we don't fix the OL, then we're going to be having these same discussions with whoever the next QB is too. I don't think any of us would prefer that....
     
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  2. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    No,
    “I don’t think he is garbage but I don’t think he was an average QB”

    That’s what I said...

    I have him below average for his career and that’s what the numbers show..

    Which could of been determined years ago if someone knew what they were doing at the position..
     
  3. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    I hope that we get a legit combo TE that can block, too. I would be very tempted to pull the trigger on T.J. Hockenson (TE) if he is there. I like Cody Ford (OG) also, but Hockenson might be too good to pass up. Look how much Gronk has helped Brady over the years.
     
  4. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    So again, you have a QB who despite learning three new offenses, going through three HCs, bad oline play, etc...and still put up average numbers. Like, was Tannehill an average QB in an average situation? I don't believe so. I believe Tannehill was in a below average situation. So I think Tannehill did better in Miami than an average QB would do, despite his numbers being average.

    Let's move on, that's fine, but I don't think it's fair how people are characterizing Tannehill.
     
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  5. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I agree. Its over and done with. What happened happened. But RT17 joins the list of QBs who could have been a lot better had they been drafted by a different club. It cuts like a knife that our Miami Dolphins were the ones that did it to him.

    But more than anything, that should convince this club that now, when they are at their lowest point, is the time to step back and build things right from the foundations. Get the proper pieces in place, let the coaching staff establish their schemes, and later on, take their QB in the draft.

    I think that if they take one high this year, there's a 90% chance that he flops, and plays much worse for Miami than RT did.
     
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  6. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    On a different note, I was thinking about the QB situation from a different angle. Since we know that Miami are now going to be hunting for the right (franchise) QB, then at what point does that stop being our top priority? Consider the other NFL teams. If you were a fan of those other teams, which ones have QB situations you're happy with such that you'd feel they don't need to look for a better QB?

    If the goal is winning it all, how many NFL teams do you think have a legitimate shot with their current QB now and for the foreseeable future?

    If the list isn't that long, doesn't that imply that Miami should almost forget everything else and focus on getting a great QB?
    Obviously, there may be times you don't see one available, and you'll still need to improve the team - as always. However, where there is a QB available you think is the man, don't you do whatever it takes to get him? And if you don't think you've got one, don't you keep things loose, and not commit heavily to any QB until you're certain? Or do you feel an decent QB is all that's needed?

    So as an exercise, which teams/QBs would you feel are fine/legit, and can stop looking as a priority?
     
  7. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Res I’m just talking in isolation, that’s ultimately where evaluations are done, I’ve felt this way for a long time, it came to fruition on the field in the form of a player incapable of playing at a high level individually.
     
  8. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I think that making the goal to "win the Superbowl" or to "find a top-5 QB" is folly, personally.

    The goal should be to build a team that can regularly be expected to win 10-12 games most seasons, and then be competitive in the Divisional Round. Once you accomplish that, then you have a good shot of things going right once or twice and making the Super Bowl.
     
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  9. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I don't ever, ever want to be in the position that we need a QB to play well individually to win. That's putting all the eggs in one basket. And it leads to chaos even if it works.

    I want a team, and an offense that is both sustainable and repeatable. Where we gain yards & first downs, and ultimately score points, because our team is just better than the guys on the other side, and are well coached and well prepared, and then execute their assignments with mechanical precision. Over and over.
     
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  10. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Tannehill was in more of an average situation than many think. It's mostly because we see the Dolphins play far more than any other team that we see all the warts without knowing how they compare to others (which is another reason why stats are useful).

    For example, the median number of years for an NFL coach at one HC position is 4 years, so having 2 HC's during 6-7 years is exactly what would be expected in an average situation. Surrounding cast? During Tannehill's time we were top 10 in rushing efficiency (Y/A) 4 years!! Those were 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2018, with 2014 being the best where we were #2 in the league. In other words, definitely better than average. Defense? For two years (2012 and 2013) were were top 10 in points allowed, for the next 3 we were 18-20th, so slightly below average (which would be 16.5), and then in 2018 we were bottom of the barrel. That's also "average".

    OL is the one area I agree we were below average, but it's also important to remember that the QB is highly influential on how bad an OL looks like. For example, in this post: https://www.thephins.com/threads/dolphins-plans-for-qb.94036/page-7#post-3151298 I show that the average change in sack% from one QB to another on the same OL is 3.85%! PFR also showed that of all passing stats it's sack% that is most highly correlated when a QB moves from one team to another.

    In other words, the QB has a huge influence on how good/bad the OL "really is". It's one reason why it's nearly impossible (currently) to tease apart how much of pressure stats are due to OL and how much to QB (another reminder to dismiss DVOA and ESPN's QBR lol).

    Point is, all in all what Tannehill experienced looks bad if you just pay attention to the Dolphins, but there's a great deal of statistical evidence showing he was in more or less an average situation. We weren't the Browns by a long stretch.
     
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  11. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    I agree, but I think I'd say it's a case of both/and. You most definitely want a well-balanced team that is coached well and can thus play well consistently, and have a consistent winning record. However, on top of that, to be successful at the very highest level you need a few of those elite players who can get the job done at crunch time and pull off something special.

    Does it need a bit of luck to get all that together? Yes. And building the balanced team is something that will be a year in year out effort. However, to become a consistently victorious team, and win it all, those key franchise players are essential.
     
  12. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah but it's almost unavoidable in the modern NFL. Just look at the SB winners last 15+ years and it's quite uncommon for SB winning team to win most of its playoff games (so not just the SB) without the QB playing well individually in the majority of the games. SB winners are statistically likely to be around 1 standard deviation above average on both offense and defense, so they have a lot to fall back on if the QB or even an entire unit doesn't play up to potential.

    Still.. the QB tends to be at around 1 St. Dev. above average in that year, so it's nearly unavoidable to win the SB without a QB that plays well in most playoff games. Can't go into this rebuild thinking we can succeed with an average QB like Tannehill.
     
  13. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    yeah well, a team that has all its individual parts playing at a high level and executing their own assignment is how you win.
     
  14. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Exactly. And the QB is one of those parts. Hopefully doing his job and executing the play as drawn up, the overwhelming majority of the time. And being protected by an OL that allows him to play the right way without the need to go off script and try to make plays by himself.
     
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  15. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The qb has to make plays for his team when things aren't perfect..sorry that's the way it when you handle the ball and make decisions on every play that isn't a run..give him optimum conditions he could make some quality throws.
     
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  16. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I agree with a lot of this.

    If Ryan were on a team like Dallas for example he would be around that top 10 QB range in my opinion and not clueless on where he will play this year.

    Competent coaching and a solid run game can make a lot of guy's look good, they then play "within the system" and I think he certainly could do that in a handful of different situations.

    I hope he signs a modest deal with the Rams, if Goff get's hurt Ryan could take the reigns and MAYBE not give them back.

    If he is a FA and is looking to sign on as a starter he will have limited and bad options. I also think the Chargers are intriguing because ole Phil doesn't seem like he can go another 3-4 years like Brady/Brees.
     
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  17. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I've felt the same for a few years. Put a healthy RT in Prescotts shoes, and hes highly productive on a team that wins a lot of games. Situation and surroundings mean so much.
     
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  18. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Very well said cbrad.

    I would have a minor quibble about rushing y/a as being a proxy for having a solid run game. In 2014 and 2015 our rushing y/a was inflated because we had a very low rush to pass ratio, which meant other teams were selling out to stop the pass. I believe the say may have happened in 2018 but I haven’t run the numbers on that season. 2016 was unequivocally a good year for Miami’s rushing attack.
     
  19. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    prescott has had to make many plays when his protection broke down in his short career and in the playoffs, like all qbs have to deal with, tannehill would be the same exact player.
     
  20. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Chad Henne and RT are both QBs who I felt were badly let down by their Miami coaches, especially in the first 2 years when players learn many habits. Both of them were coached to play scared and avoid risks. Both of them went backwards with regard to throwing downfield with anticipation. Henne got turned into check down chad, and I firmly believe RT was coached to eat sacks rather than chance his arm.

    I”m not saying either would be a HoF candidate, simply that just that with proper coaching they could have been substantially better players than how they turned out.
     
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  21. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Yea he has that ability, but i think it's fair to wonder if the play actually broke down? Or he just didn't want to throw with anticipation and make play's.

    Hard to say w/o reviewing his game film.
     
  22. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    YES!

    I have been saying this for years! Go back and watch the Chad Henne at Michigan, he was throwing into tight windows and in my mind was a gunslinger. He comes to Miami with Chad Pennington and Tony Sparano and seemed to take on a very different approach. He visibly was afraid to make mistakes, how can anyone ever thrive if they are scared to even attempt it.
     
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  23. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Tannehill was a spot, a spot that the defense would know where he was always gonna be, with below average instincts and movement to get away..that's always, in any uniform, going to be a recipe for disaster.

    He had lots of other weaknesses as well.
     
  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Actually the relation goes in the opposite direction. The higher the run-pass ratio the higher rushing Y/A because teams that are leading in the 4th quarter try to run out the clock and thus tend to have more rushing attempts than the losing team (more an effect, not a cause).

    So if you're just going by raw rush percentage, then it's even more impressive if rushing Y/A is high when rush percentage is low. Here's a graph of the correlation between rush percentage and rushing Y/A throughout NFL history (1966-2018):
    [​IMG]

    As far as the Dolphins are concerned, we had above average rush% in 2012, 2016 and 2018. In terms of standard deviations above the mean it was 0.45 in 2012, 0.96 in 2016 and 0.4 in 2018. And of course we were 10-6 in 2016 so that near +1 St. Dev in rush% makes sense to some degree. So really, given these stats the rushing Y/A we put up in 2014 was pretty impressive.

    Dolphins rush%:
    2012: 46.61%
    2013: 37.00%
    2014: 40.14%
    2015: 36.91%
    2016: 45.98%
    2017: 27.23%
    2018: 44.92%

    League average rush%:
    2012: 44.02%
    2013: 43.39%
    2014: 43.36%
    2015: 42.50%
    2016: 42.17%
    2017: 44.01%
    2018: 42.91%

    Note: for all stats I'm excluding sacks as passing attempts (trend won't change).
     
  25. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I agree for the most part, however he played very well when Jay Ajayi was looking like Zeke Elliot.

    If we had THAT type of consistent running game it makes the offense/QBs job much easier.

    I also believe Dak doesn’t do enough things well that he would survive in Miami or any team where he doesn’t have the benefit of such a strong run game.

    However I will say he sure did look the part after acquiring Cooper, so maybe my evaluation on him is old news.
     
    Last edited: Feb 26, 2019
  26. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    It's official - Kyler Murray is over 5'10" and weighs 207.

    http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2019/story/_/id/26102751/qb-murray-measures-5-10-1-8-nfl-combine

    Do the updated measurements change anyone's mind? Personally, I don't see ANY way (barring injury or a catastrophic physical showcase) that he makes it out of the top 5. I absolutely thought that if he made it to 13 we would be insane to pass on that kind of talent. Not sure that I would be willing to give away a ransom to move up though with some good QB drafts coming up in 2020-2021. Also likely that Haskins goes top 10 at least, maybe also top 5ish.

    So I guess if we are looking at high end QB prospects, it's Jones and Lock, which ... meh.
     
  27. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    No, I was going to be totally opposed to hi regardless of a few fractions of an inch, or pounds of weight. Let another team make the mistake.
     
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  28. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I think it's dangerous to just assume we'll land the QB prospect we want in 2020-2021 when so many other teams will be in the hunt too. Those top prospects are probably going 1-5 and it'll be as difficult as landing Murray. UNLESS of course we deliberately decide to tank, which I doubt we do despite the rhetoric from Ross (takes some serious balls to do that!).

    I'd go all in this year for Murray, and I'm not even sure that will work because there's so much competition for the next franchise QB.
     
  29. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    I don't think you reach for Murray all the way into the top 5 or wherever.

    If he was there at 13 then fine, take him. I get it. But is he better than the 2020 or 2021 prospects? Because if you go get him this year it will likely cost next year's 1st round pick too, and remove the chance of aiming at Tua and co.
     
  30. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    If I understand this correctly based on your previous posts, you're against Murray because you don't like his style right? I mean you don't want Russell Wilson or Patrick Mahomes on our team either because you don't like QB's that scramble and aren't primarily pocket passers.

    So the statement "let another team make the mistake" needs to be put in proper context. You're not really arguing that Murray is likely to hurt the Dolphins in terms of added win%, you're just saying you don't like his style. For those of us where style isn't important but just want to increase win%, I think it's difficult to argue Murray would "be a mistake".
     
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  31. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I suppose. And I mean no offense to anyone when I say this, but I'm just totally unable to wrap my head around the idea of style not mattering. For me, that just seems so clinical or mechanical, and for me being a fan is mostly an emotional, personal thing. I care just as much about how the team moves the ball down the field as what the end result is.
     
  32. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    You know what would be fun? Seeing Tannehill vs. a top tier rookie QB in a training camp and pre-season.

    In all the years so far he's never had any serious competition. Would have been nice to see him face a real challenger.

    Who knows.... :D
     
  33. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    So...who's gonna work on the gas mask video for this draft? ;-) Based on what I know so far, I would be very disappointed if we took Jones or Lock. I would rather use the pick on someone who could actually help us.
     
  34. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Not my thing either. I know that 95% of you feel the other way, but I don't want the team's starting QB to be a competition. I want to pick the guy, let him slowly figure it out, and feel secure in the job until he proves that he either deserves it or needs to be replaced. Then repeat.
     
  35. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I'm content with seeing Tannehill on another team having the opportunity to prove himself. It's just psychologically too damaging to keep him on our team. I wish the guy the best somewhere else but he was never the answer to our QB problems (even if he was better than every QB we had since Marino, except of course Pennington in that one year).
     
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  36. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    Since we might not be able to draft a legitimate QB these next few years what do you think of the strategy of continuing to build the rest of the team first until we can get our guy? Isn't that what the Rams did? Weren't they loaded for bear, and then took their guy when they had the chance? Might not be a bad idea to use that 1st or 2nd on higher rated guys instead of forcing it by over-drafting a QB who probably wouldn't pan out anyway.
     
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  37. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    I do agree it is dangerous to count on future drafts. Though I think Murray has some great potential (and I like Haskins as well), I don't know if I am sold to the point where I am giving up serious capital to make the kind of jump that will likely be needed. Going from 13 to, say, #2 overall will likely be a HUGE give-up.

    Jets are already on record as wanting to move down the in draft, so you know that's probably what you need to beat. And remember, they gave up 3 second rounders last year to move up 3 spaces.
     
  38. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I am 100% in favor of doing the best that we can to build up the rest of the offense first, before handing a young new QB the keys, yes.
     
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  39. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah I get that. But at the end of the day, you still have a QB that was essentially statistically average, even though anyone who's being honest would have to say he played on at best an overall below average team, and was in a terrible situation with regards to the constant coaching turnover, poor leadership at the management level, and a number of team chemistry killing scandals.

    It's not like Tannehill was Vince Young or Joey Harrington, which is how it seems some people perceive him. I just can't see how if you're actually evaluating in isolation that you come away believing him to be below average.

    TL:DR
    If Tannehill truly had average as his ceiling, he would have looked far worse playing on the teams he played for. Tannehill put up average all around stats while playing for a dysfunctional, below average team, which tells me that he's better than average.
     
  40. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I think that's the worst of all options. You'll be waiting forever because we'll probably win 7-9 games each year if the rest of the team is good but the QB isn't. Have to gamble at some point on getting that QB or you're vastly limiting your chances of winning the SB.
     
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