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Great Older Article on Fitzpatrick

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Jun 6, 2019.

  1. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    My goodness.. there are many sh## Qbs who have had stretches where others are doing their job and they post a stretch of above average numbers..

    Jeff George, Ryan leaf, Jay Cutler, I could go on for days..

    Under your guidelines, This is not how you evaluate a player..
     
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  2. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Again.....A few us called very specific things. Those things happened. You can pretend that is all just coincidence I guess.
     
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  3. Miamiforlife

    Miamiforlife Active Member

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    tannehills last game against buffalo. It appeared they took the kid gloves off of tannehill For the first time ever? He failed bigtime? 3 interceptions and no touchdowns. Remember how in the offseason they had to tell our defense to go easy on the offense. We were hoping our defense was real good. But it was just our offense was awful? Tanny is a nice guy but not the qb i want on my team again.
     
  4. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    During the Tannehill era, there was a lot more to it then just calling out specific things for him to have success, there were references to other players like Russel Wilson being downplayed because of some dreamt up situation that made him better than he is and that if Ryan was afforded the same the results would be similar, all kinds of Bs, I think the evaluation of Tannehill by his supporters evolved into not having any legs to stand on, and so here we are.. the defense of a below average Qb continues.
     
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  5. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I will complain about the quarterback position until we have an elite one, yes.

    But I also believe that there is no combination of surrounding variables that can regularly turn an otherwise average one into an elite one. The stars may align from time to time, and that may cause brief periods of elevated play from an average quarterback, but I don’t believe any fan should expect the stars to be aligned on a regular basis.

    What that means is that you’re very likely going to get predominantly average play out of an average quarterback. When he plays significantly above that level, it’s going to be the exception to the rule.
     
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  6. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    The Dolphins ate 10 million dollars of his salary and were compensated with a lowly 6th round pick. Apparently, the rest of the NFL is pretending the same thing you are accusing others of doing here.

    Teddy Bridgewater on one knee had significantly more trade value to a team that saw him as a 2 year backup.
     
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  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Nor is that the argument. It's not that Tannehill somehow magically plays like Aaron Rodgers when he gets some help. It's that the production is more in line with that. If you wanted to go into each season believing that since you don't have one of the top 4 QBs in the league, that the team will be unsuccessful, have at it. For me personally, I wouldn't even watch football anymore, if that was my belief.
     
  8. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Again, I believe that Tannehill's injuries are far more at fault for the lack of options for him, than his actual play.
     
  9. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Omgoodness, when he wasnt injured we saw the same style of play every freakin year..

    The dude can’t make plays physically or instinctively..when all is right with the world the pendulum can drop in his spot and throw a good accurate ball, that’s all you have with him..there’s no touch, there’s no feel for situational football, there’s no help in the playmaking Dept when things break down, for cripes sake he wasn’t even smart enough to know when to take off to give his team a measly first down on occasion..
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2019
  10. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Which injuries? His knee was fine last year. If he was a valued commodity he would have been seen as one. Clearly he wasn't seen as one.

    You continually move the ball in a different direction when it's become pretty clear that his market value and viability as a respected and top tier QB was an extreme minority opinion.
     
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  11. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Or to realize that throwing the ball away is a net positive play in the NFL. When Brock freaking Osweiller is held up as an example of what to do when pressure comes your way, you're in for a rough ride.

    This debate is like sugar.. I try to avoid it but just can't help myself.
     
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  12. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    First of all, people are wrong sometimes. I may have been wrong about Thill's ceiling, just as you were wrong about Dion jordan. I don't bring that up...ever actually. There is no need to bring up stuff that isn't being discussed or argued then demand people answer for it.

    Secondly, as great as Russell Wilson is, he was in a place that supported him and allowed him to grow and REACH his potential. That is a fact. You and I argue this all the time, but your notion that great QBs are mythical creatures that can flourish regardless of surroundings is bunk.

    Thirdly, right now in this specific conversation, I am discussing the notion that Thill is considered a terrible QB and the fact that a few of us called specifically what he needed to play at a higher level and we were unequivocally correct.
     
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  13. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    If that’s true, then the question becomes, how often is any quarterback likely to get such help?

    Because if that happens infrequently in the league, then obviously quarterbacks like Tannehill are frequently going to play at the lower level they play at when they don’t have such help.

    If on the other hand such help happens frequently in the league, then the best quarterbacks in the league are also going to get such help, and then they will be very likely to beat Tannehill in the playoffs or elsewhere, whether Tannehill has such help or not.

    Either way you have largely a losing proposition.
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2019
  14. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Thought you were done?
     
  15. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Ha so did I. I apologize for not being able to control myself :D
     
  16. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    There are HUNDREDS of intangibles every quarterback needs to start in this league....which is why they can't easily be compartmentalized like you're trying to do.
     
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  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    What I was speaking to exclusively was the likelihood and frequency with which teams experience the surrounding variables that some folks here have stated were necessary to elevate Tannehill's play.
     
  18. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    With all the talk about Tannehill being a “coach killer” you would then expect the coaches that were held back by Tannehill to do better after they left the Dolphins. Let’s check the record.

    Mike Sherman. Couldn’t get a gig in the NFL or College ranks. Last seen coaching High School.
    Bill Lazor. Hired by the Bengals as QB coach. Got promoted to OC, but was fired by the Bengals after 2018. As far as I can tell is still unemployed.
    Joe Philbin. Was assistant OL coach for Indy. NB* Their OL improved dramatically after he left. Went back to Green Bay as OC, was promoted to interim HC for the last 3 games. Fired at season’s end and remains unemployed.
    Adam Gase. Too early to tell.

    None of the coaches that Tannehill “killed” has gone on to bigger and better things, which is what you would expect if they were genius coaches and Tannehill was the problem. The record shows that these coaches, with the possible exception of Adam Gase, are poor to mediocre coaches. The only time mediocre (offensive) coaches become successful in the NFL is if they hitch their wagon to a HoF QB.

    This is like the myth that RT held back other offensive players. The only offensive skill player who had better stats after leaving Miami has been Rishard Mathews, and that is more due to Miami underutilizing him than anything else.
     
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  19. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    What are you talking about? I've been consistently saying that back to back knee injuries, combined with his age, would keep teams away from him. You think that it didn't??
     
  20. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I've argued many times that MOST elite QBs are on good teams. Rivers is an exception in San Diego, he's had some stinker teams, and guess what, even though he had great stats, they didn't win. Rodgers is another, GB was awful without him.
     
  21. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Fin I brought it up because the goal post has moved many times on this subject, using Wilson’s situation to argue specifics about tannehills game was part of what the problem was.it was more than just being wrong about Tannehill, it was wrong about Wilson.

    What’s frustrating now is we have all this proof that back up what some of us were saying early in the process without any acknowledgement just the continuation of deflecting..

    I was wrong about Dion Jordan
     
  22. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    No. I think 30 years old is when QBs start to peak. His knee gave him no problems last year so I can’t see how that is relevant today.
     
  23. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Having an elite quarterback, or a quarterback who is average and is also on his rookie contract, is pretty much necessary but not sufficient for Super Bowl contention anymore in the league.

    Other parts of a team are needed (i.e., necessary but not sufficient), but without the necessary conditions at the quarterback position, a team is almost completely unlikely to win a Super Bowl.

    So yes, you will see that quarterbacks like Drew Brees can have exceptionally good seasons for teams that aren’t so good because of problems elsewhere on those teams, but what you will almost never see is an average quarterback not on his rookie contract winning a Super Bowl. The Drew Breeses of the world have a much better chance of accomplishing that.
     
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  24. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Mediocre coaches that coached a mediocre QB in Miami. Go figure.
     
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  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Mediocre is the most likely level of performance for any single person in the NFL, coach or player. It’s not unexpected that the Dolphins have experienced mediocrity by and large.
     
  26. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah, but there is one team that has been abnormally mediocre lol.. Buffalo.

    Since 2002 when the NFL went to 32 teams, there is only one team that is statistically significant in terms of having too small a variance in win% from year to year: Buffalo. Not even the Patriots (who are #2 on the list) come close to Buffalo:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/index.htm

    The standard deviation of win% for Buffalo from 2002-2018 is 8.9% while the league average is 17%. The standard deviation OF those standard deviations across the league is 2.59% and statistical significance for 32 teams (32 hypotheses tested simultaneously) isn't at the 0.05 level but instead at approximately 0.05/32 = 0.00156 level (using what's called the Bonferroni correction), which is just around 3 standard deviations from the mean. And Buffalo's 8.9% is just over 3.1 standard deviations from the mean lol.

    I mean check their record out since 2002: 6-9 wins in 15 out of 17 years with 5 wins one year and 4 wins the other year lol. More predictable than any other team (even the Patriots) since the NFL went to 32 teams.
     
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  27. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I equate mediocre with average, we haven’t been that as a team, franchise, or qb.
     
  28. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    You actually couldn't;t be more wrong because the team's record as literally been exactly mediocre/average/.500 forever now.
     
  29. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    The strict definition is middling, and comes from Latin for “middle mountain”. It’s use in Latin was similar to what we use “average” for in modern English. It’s more common usage is to denote not good/barely adequate. If we say 50% is average then most people would use “mediocre” to mean roughly 40-50%.
     
  30. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I wasn’t talking about forever Fin..

    Overall Average is too much praise for Tannehill
     
  31. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Disagree. Tannehill was one part above average, one part well below average and one part generally average. He has some great stretches, some absolute stinkers every year and the rest of the time he just....was.

    Average about sums it up.
     
  32. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    And that’s fine Rush, I have him below which stands beside a lot of different outlets and numbers..

    He’s also not a starting qb in the nfl which makes him not average in the eyes of the NFL.

    Average QB is a starting Qb in the 15 to 20 range
     
  33. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    So for 7 years he was average?
     
  34. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think anything after 16 is starting to go below average if you wanna look at it in that number box

    Tannehill was mostly bottom third from most statistical outlets..
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2019
  35. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I think he was average overall, which again is what any one player is most likely to be.
     
  36. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think we’re talking about two different things..

    If he was rated in the bottom third mostly he was not average.
     
  37. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Statistically Tannehill was only in the bottom 1/3 in his rookie year. Basically, any z-score below -0.43 is lower 1/3 and any z-score above 0.43 is top 1/3. Here are his z-scores:

    2012: -0.8259
    2013: -0.3630
    2014: 0.3940
    2015: -0.1698
    2016: 0.3739
    2018: -0.0167

    And his career average (weighted by passing attempts) is -0.1166. So Tannehill is slightly below average overall, has never been in the top 1/3 over an entire season and only in his rookie year was bottom 1/3. Nothing wrong with saying he is "average" or "slightly below average".
     
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  38. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I’ve said this before, you have his stats at being below average.. doesn’t matter how slightly it is, anything below average is below average..

    Eyes tell me he is, your numbers tell me he is, PFF who at least watches every rep Says he is, record says he is..what else do we freakin want..
     
  39. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I think when you factor in the level of opposing competition and the variable of clutch play, then you can safely say Tannehill was significantly below average. With regard to traditional statistics, however, he was average to slightly below average like cbrad said.

    He made his living against poorer competition in non-clutch situations, and even that resulted in average play overall, with relatively brief periods of slightly above average play. When the slightly above average play occurred, again that was typically against poorer competition in non-clutch situations.
     
  40. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If he was average he would have a job as a starter..
     

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