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Rosen to Start against Cowboys

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Sep 19, 2019.

  1. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm not sure how it's ironic. It's certainly metaphorical. One man stopping the tank.
     
  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Does anyone who believes that Rosen will be undermined by his surroundings also believe that it’s possible for him to be evaluated by people with an eye for talent in such a way that the quality (or lack thereof) of his individual performance can be parsed from his surroundings? Or is it just completely impossible to get any information at all about how he performs individually amidst these circumstances?
     
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  3. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I understand that this team as a whole is degraded to the point that actually having a winning season is impossible. We have no OL nor a defense. Fine, so be it. Accept that we’re probably going to lose virtually every game. It sucks, but accept it.

    Now with that being the truth and being said, if you’re TRULY wanting to evaluate Rosen then we have to run the entire playbook, which is going to include running the damned ball. So what if we’re down by 7...14...21...35; at that point, it’s over. If your long term goal is to evaluate Rosen to see if he is indeed the QB if the future and use these multiple draft picks to build around him, then run the entire offense and see what happens.

    If all you do is have him drop back snap after snap, running for his life or getting sacked/knocked down snap after snap after snap, then all you’re going to do is kill this kid, physically and mentally. You’ll cause him to second guess himself every time and if that’s what you’re going to do, might as well trade him now. But history has seemed to show that every skill player we trade young comes back to kick our a$$ later.
     
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  4. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    One man stopping the tank.. is what you see in the picture. That man represents the Dolphins. The irony is that the Dolphins are tanking, meaning that the man isn't really stopping the tank but deliberately tanking.. that is, deliberately trying to be run over by them.
     
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  5. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Oh, I see. I didn't get that from the context of the thread. I figured the man was Rosen and the tanks were the Dolphins season. Thanks.
     
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  6. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I agree with this, but not just for Rosen. The coach's plan for all players this year should be: play to evaluate, not play to win.

    In fact, I don't see any real issue with coaches being honest with players (not the media) and saying that we're obviously not ready to win the SB this year (hurting your own credibility by acting otherwise isn't a good idea either) and that the goal this year is to see who belongs on the team longer term and who doesn't. In other words, the purpose of the season is to evaluate players. The competitive spirit of players isn't necessarily going down if you make it clear there's a serious cost to not doing your best and that there's a benefit to being part of a longer term plan to win the SB.
     
  7. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Personally, I thought the line looked a lot better in week 2 for whatever reason. It could be the difference in schemes between NE and Baltimore...or it could be that we've plugged in better linemen that we picked up after week 1. A third option could simply be better coaching after the embarrassment in week 1. In the press conference, Flores was asked directly if Rosen will be protected this week and he was very wishy-washy in his answer....so he knows protection isn't there 100%.

    But at the same time I think he believes that things will be better yet again up front. Maybe not good...but better.

    I said all of that to say this- I do think Rosen will be somewhat undermined by his surroundings, but I think he's better than Fitz under pressure (mainly due to age) and I think it's entirely possible to evaluate him. Honestly, I think it's POSSIBLE that we beat the Cowboys if Rosen really goes off with Parker and Williams. I'm not expecting it by any means but heck, stranger things have happened. I am 100% confident that Rosen will try to "show his ***" and either throw for 300+ yards and multiple TD's or 100 yards and multiple picks.

    Either way, I'm excited to see it- this is really the first "hope" we've had this season of Miami trying to compete.

    PS- my keyboard got fried and the new one's not in from Amazon until Monday...so I probably missed some letters. I have to type like I'm playing the drums on the keyboard, LOL.
     
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  8. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    There are some things you can tell for sure.

    You can tell if he felt the pressure, you can tell if he made the right first read, you can maybe tell if he cane off the read quickly enough.

    Beyond that, there are some things that take additional pocket time to really evaluate. I dont mean all day in the pocket either, I mean a normal offensive line.
     
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  9. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    btw.. starting Rosen isn't just an opportunity to evaluate Rosen. It's also an evaluation of Flores. This is what Flores said:
    https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article235293857.html
    So here's the coach explaining to us he understands the value of developing the QB and not throwing him to the wolves too early, but then also saying he thinks Rosen is "ready" now. Furthermore, he says Rosen's decision making issues aren't as bad as before. We'll find out.

    Either way, it's clear Flores understands the value of seeing Rosen in real games rather than just in practice. That much I credit him for.
     
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  10. JPPT1974

    JPPT1974 2022 Mother's Day and May Flowers!

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    Just give him a chance. Good luck Josh. Hope you can help the team rebound.
     
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  11. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    "....the line looked a lot better in week 2 for whatever reason. It could be the difference in schemes between NE and Baltimore...or it could be that we've plugged in better linemen that we picked up after week 1. A third option could simply be better coaching after the embarrassment in week 1."

    You may be right. I suspect all three factors you identified are part of what is happening with the offensive line. This is the kind of thing I expected would occur over the first 4 to 6 weeks with a new coaching staff.

    If this is true, these next two games should begin to show a more effective offense. Assuming the offense shows up and take some pressure off the defense, then we should expect to see more effective defensive play. Those two combined results should result in a more competitive team that begins to produce some wins. :flag:

    When those wins happen, you may need to quit watching this board for at least a day or two while the tankers vent! :death:

    Of course you could just watch their convoluted responses to winning followed by their chorus of whines about how winning ruins a season, which should prove to be somewhat entertaining. :deadhorse:

    I will be laughing.
    :dolphin:
    We could refer to this kind of mental breakdown as TANKERS HELL! :crapstrom:
     
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  12. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    If the line was indeed better in the second game, it was likely because it was a closer game on the scoreboard for a bigger portion of the game. Against the Ravens the Dolphins were down 21-0 after the first quarter and 42-10 at the half.
     
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  13. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I don't see how one could argue the OL was better against the Patriots. Based on what? Patriots sacked our QB's a total of 7 times!! and that's supposed to be an "improvement"?? It's not like there were fewer collapsed pockets in one game vs. the other.

    In fact, I think a decent summary of the two games is that the defense was almost historically bad against the Ravens (how else to describe giving up 59 points?) while the offense could do little, and it was almost the reverse against the Patriots: the offense was atrocious (how else to describe the offense scoring a net -14 points!!) while the defense was bad but nowhere near as bad as against the Ravens.
     
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2019
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  14. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Darn, I really don't have the energy to argue with you today, LOL. When I watch games through the 2nd time, I always watch the line instead of the ball....it's just a nerdy thing I do since I played line for so long. In game 1, Fitz had instant pressure across the right side of the line....often three people running free between the A, B and C gaps. The left tackle was smoked maybe every other play as well. Fitz's time to throw/scramble was less than a second.

    That didn't happen in game two- there was a semblance of a pocket on almost half the plays and it bought Fitz around two seconds. That's not ideal in any circumstance but it was WAAAY better than week 1. Maybe that doesn't show in the sack count since the line was still bad overall...but trust me that they drastically improved (especially on the right side).

    Both games were ugly but that improvement is all I care about each week...and I promise you it was there.
     
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  15. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    So.. Rosen's first start for Miami is a tale of 2 halves. First half, especially in the 2nd quarter he played really well, while the 2nd half he basically disappeared. And that "disappearing" wasn't the fault of everyone else; you can trace a lot of that to Rosen. He threw balls off target or late to target and got balls tipped, all the opposite of the first half.

    On one hand this shows he has the talent to play QB at a high level in the NFL but it also shows that at least at this stage in his development he can't lead the offense down the field and score points when the going gets rough. That's not good.

    The rest of the team was also like that. Defense was actually good in the 2nd quarter then just fell apart.. 235 rushing yards allowed lol.
     
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  16. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    As usual, we disagree. =)

    I saw Jesse Davis go down and the left side of the line self-implode without him on the field in the 2nd half. I'm not saying Rosen was error-free, but that was a huge factor in the pressures and tipped balls.
     
  17. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    And a true franchise QB would have been able to overcome that. If you can't throw passes on time and on target just because you have extra pressure – you know like pressure to lead the team during a comeback – then you shouldn't be a franchise QB.

    Said this in the game thread, but you can't go into this Rosen experiment with the same mentality we had with Tannehill, the idea that we just blame surrounding cast. That's the mentality that kept Tannehill around longer than we should have. Don't keep making the same mistake over and over again. We need to see a QB that can overcome adversity, not just play well when things are going well.

    And so far Rosen hasn't shown that. He shows ability to succeed when he's set up to succeed, but not when there's adversity. He has 13 games to prove otherwise.
     
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  18. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I think you’re both correct. What we saw was a quarterback who needs that sort of assistance around him to play well, rather than one who can overcome that kind of adversity.
     
  19. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Maybe against a bad team with a bad defense.
     
  20. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Nah.. there are enough examples of QB's leading their team to victory against good teams. Brady's comeback in the SB against Atlanta was legendary. Wilson had some amazing playoff games too. And Luck often had a bad OL and yet brought his team back to win multiple times.

    Dolphins fans have gotten used to too much mediocre QB play. Have to get used to something better. Oh.. and the pocket presence exhibited by both Rosen and Fitzpatrick is exactly the type a bunch of us were asking for during the Tannehill years. You know, the years where people said that kind of pocket presence shouldn't be expected of most QB's. Good QB play is out there, just not here.
     
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  21. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    I have seen Brady look like complete and total garbage when his line doesn't get him protection. I have seen all of the great quarterbacks looks like **** when they get terrible protection.

    Luck's line was so bad there were people calling him over rated and that he was just as good as Tannehill.
     
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  22. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    What Dolphins fans also did was generate a philosophy of the game to explain Ryan Tannehill’s play, in which quarterbacks play well because of their surroundings, and that became reified by a consensus without empirical support.
     
  23. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    To some degree I agree with you- it ultimately comes down to Rosen regardless of his surrounding cast. But at the same time, he's had 5 BEAUTIFUL TD passes dropped this season and we're only at game three...in his first overall start. That part you can't put on any QB when they deliver perfect balls.

    Also, if you watch that left side of the line, our rookie left guard played conservative (at tackle) in the 2nd half and generally didn't make contact until he was two yards in the backfield. I mean, he did what he could do in his first LT start, but his angles instantly collapsed the pocket and that's where all those blocked passes came from. Rosen did adjust after he had three smacked balls in six total plays; those adjustments don't happen in real time though.

    If we're seeing the same thing ten weeks from now then I completely agree with you- the QB only gets so much benefit of the doubt. But he gets a clear pass in my book under his first start with that line...I thought he played excellent under the circumstances. Remember, he had only Friday to practice with the 1's, so this was more like a Matt Moore kind of situation.
     
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  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    The protection (or lack thereof) wasn't responsible for Rosen's disappearance in the 2nd half. The guy has good pocket presence. Yes, a few times there was no reasonable way for the QB to evade a sack, but most of the time in the 2nd half he just didn't make the throw. That's on Rosen, not anyone else. Again.. this mentality of blaming the surroundings is a mistake no one on the Dolphins should ever repeat.
     
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  25. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    It took a bunch of years but empirical evidence I think finally did cause most of the fanbase to realize Tannehill wasn't the solution. I do agree that the "philosophy" to explain away Tannehill's lack of performance went on WAY too long.
     
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2019
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  26. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Daniel Jones pretty much won a game all by himself with a bunch of bums. I see what you're saying now.
     
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  27. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Wow! I had given up on the Giants winning that game. Just watched the highlights, and while the Giants got lucky at the end with a missed FG that was a pretty good performance by Daniel Jones. Looks like the Giants won't be in the race for a QB next year. Oh, and both OL in this game look at least as bad as ours!

     
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  28. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    You can argue the Giants offensive line is worse than Miami's.
     
  29. Dolphin Dundee

    Dolphin Dundee Well-Known Member

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    Rosens pocket presence is light years ahead of Tannehills..
     
  30. Vinny Fins

    Vinny Fins Feisty Brooklyn dolfan ️‍

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    Flashes. Not consistently there yet. Lot of drops and pressure though.

    To me at least it’s something worth watching and evaluating over the next 14 NFL weeks including the bye, Have to see what we got and run him out there every week. I am slightly encouraged by today tough place to play tough opponent and he had us in it at the half and we probably would’ve had the lead if not for a brutal fumble. I think the kid has upside not finished product out by any means.
     
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  31. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    It was his first start under terrible circumstances and he played well. He certainly wasn't the reason we lost that game and he put us in position to score a lot more points and possibly win the game. Given his circumstances, that's pretty good. It was the drops and Drake's fumble that really killed our chances.
     
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  32. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    I wanted us to draft Daniel Jones.. didnt know he would end up picked as high as he was.. hes a gamer.
     
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  33. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Ok, please do so.

    Jesse Davis, undrafted free agent and starting left tackle is hurt. He played right tackle and right guard last year.

    Rookie 3rd round draft choice Michael Dieter is moving over from left guard to start at left tackle. He playeda total of 14 games as a left tackle in college all during his Junior season.

    Evan Bowen is starting his first game with the Dolphins filling in at left guard. He spent the off season with the Colts as they picked him off of the Rams practice squad last year to fill in at center after injuries. Trade to Miami right before the season started. Originally drafted and cut by the Cardinals.

    Daniel Kilgore is the starting center and the most experienced on the line. He played 4 games last year before going on IR. But, he played center!

    Starting Right Guard Danny Isidora was injured. Danny was a back up guard for the Vikings last year and filled in for two games at Left Guard.

    Undrafted Rookie Shaq Calhoun filled in at Right Guard.

    J'marcus Webb is the starting Right Tackle after riginally starting Right Tackle Julian Davenport was injured following week 1. Webb started the off season as a Colt but was cut right before the season started. He played one game at Right Tackle for the Colts before being injured last year.

    What do the Giants have? According to PFF the best run blocking line, and 6th best pass blocking Line in the NFL.

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol/2019


    Edit: I don't think it can be overstated just how poor of a team they are fielding for the tank.
     
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  34. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Those stats are from just the first 2 games. They don't include today's game, and those stats will look a LOT different after today. For instance, that "6th best pass blocking line" is in large part due to having given up only 2 sacks in 2 games. What do you think happens to that stat after including the 5 sacks given up today?

    Just take a look at the highlights in post #67 and try to argue that the Giants have the "best run blocking line" or the "6th best pass blocking line". At least for today's game it was more like bottom 1/3 of the league.

    Regardless, there's no stat I know of that after just 2 games is a reliable indicator of season performance so these rankings are mostly meaningless at this point in the season.
     
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  35. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I am having a hard time with this post. Don't take the first two games graded into consideration because there isn't enough data to draw a conclusion, but look at these "highlights" from one game and draw a conclusion. As an argument against the Dolphins having a much worse O line than the Giants. Because that's what I am arguing.
     
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  36. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    I feel the most important statistical information over the first 1/2 of the season is how a player, a positional group or game planning is trending. That should give you a better idea of what to expect in the next game.
     
  37. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    First of all.. FO isn't "grading" the OL like PFF does. They're attempting to use a purely statistical approach. That means there are two problems: 1) stats throw away TONS of information, and 2) for statistics to be reliable you need large sample size.

    The "throwing away tons of information" part means you either have to show that the stat you are looking at is highly correlated with something you care about such as win% or that it's a parameter in a model whose predictive power depends highly on that parameter being known. Sadly for OL there is no such stat that we know of. So independent of the sample size argument, that's a reason to not use ANY stat for measuring OL (better to call such OL stats "indicators" that we don't yet know how to combine into an actual measure of OL ability).

    Of course, what I was referring to was the small sample size issue that is a problem with every stat.

    Now, a human "grading" or "rating" something doesn't have the same type of problem because they don't throw away tons of information which means that the sample size needed to make a good estimate of OL ability should in principle be FAR less with humans than with stats. Problem of course is that the human has all kinds of subjective biases that stats don't have.

    In other words, the unreliability argument I was using for the FO stats is based on small sample size, while the "look at the tape" argument I was using challenges you with whatever biases you have to argue that the Giants in the game they just played (claims about their first 2 games weren't even made btw) have "the 6th best pass blocking OL" or something similar. IMO it's pretty hard to argue their OL in their latest game was any better than the Dolphins' OL.
     
  38. Alan in England

    Alan in England Active Member

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    watching on from England I can't believe how bad things are with the Dolphins.
    Some good players have been off loaded all in the chase for high draft picks next year but will the top rated QB want to join a franchise which has become a laughing stock under Ross' ownership. If only Dan Marino hadn't been around in 1984 when I started watching American Football on UK TV and I wouldn't have chosen Miami as "my team":angry:
     
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  39. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    Some of the comments just bug the heck out of me. Basically what I read is if you had a great QB you don't need even a good offensive line. Ridiculous and completely backwards.

    Atlanta committed the same mistake every team that plays the Patriots does if they find themselves in the lead they get conservative and take their foot off the gas. It wasn't any miraculous Brady thing, The Falcons screwed the pooch. The Eagles didn't make that mistake, pedal down and aggressive the whole game.

    Anyway to Rosen. Game wasn't on here but from what I saw in highlights, clips and just following along he seemed to play ok but like the whole team the wheels came off after the half. He certainly had no help from his receivers or Running backs, two TD passes dropped and a fumble at the 6?

    I apologize right here and now for saying many times that I thought we had good skill position guys on this team and you couldn't tell because of the poor line and QB play. We obviously do not.
     
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  40. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    I hear you. Basically like this season has come down to a matter of trust.

    Do you trust the front office to fix this with all the resources they created for the next couple of years or not? That is the stated plan from these guys. At this point I am not sure is all I can say. These guys have to close the deal and have a very narrow margin for error to get it done. They can't afford to miss on their draft picks next year or bring the wrong free agents in. We shall see.
     
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