1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Billy Turner....is good?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Sep 26, 2019.

  1. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

    19,127
    11,058
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
    Irishman and resnor like this.
  2. Not So Fast

    Not So Fast Well-Known Member

    1,399
    1,091
    113
    Dec 31, 2012
    Lake Worth, FL
    He improved his game with the Broncos. I think having Chris Foerester as his coach is what delayed his development. Dallas Thomas was a completely a lost cause however.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  3. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

    12,162
    5,057
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Hes been good since 2017 with the Broncos.. .
    We had the pick right, we didnt have the coaches right.
     
    resnor, mlb1399 and texanphinatic like this.
  4. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

    4,323
    4,012
    113
    May 2, 2014
    SO Cal
    I look at the Patriots and they seem to be able to "coach up" their guys. Talent is important but having a great O line coach can hide some of those deficiencies. Maybe we need to just flat our overpay one of these guys to pry them loose.
     
    Irishman, resnor and mlb1399 like this.
  5. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    3,696
    3,743
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    The flip side of the coin is that Jamil Douglas and Dallas Thomas have never been sighted again.

    So we had 1 guy who could have been coached up if we had a competent OL coach and 2 guys we had no business ever drafting.
     
    resnor and Silverphin like this.
  6. Losferwords

    Losferwords Member

    77
    60
    18
    Sep 1, 2012
    Any guess who drafting? Chris Grier
     
  7. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

    72,252
    43,684
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    What do you suppose is considered just an average success rate in the draft?
     
    Irishman and resnor like this.
  8. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Hard to find definitive stats on the probability of drafting success by position and by round, but this guy looked at players that started at least half the games in their careers (probably not the best metric.. but it correlates well with others I've seen) from 2005-2014:
    https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015...e-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

    Summary:
    1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
    2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
    3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
    4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
    5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
    6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
    7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

    Billy Turner and Dallas Thomas were both 3rd round picks and Jamil Douglas was a 4th rounder. Here are the probabilities of picking X consistent starters at OL with two 3rd round picks and one 4th rounder:

    0 consistent starters: 30.25%
    1 consistent starter: 44.87%
    2 consistent starters: 21.52%
    3 consistent starters: 3.36%

    Coming out with more than 1 consistent starter at OL given the picks we're talking about is expected 1/4 of the time. Thus, missing on 2 out of 3 of those picks isn't really the issue. The real issue is that Billy Turner couldn't be coached up here.
     
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2019
    The Guy, invid, Irishman and 2 others like this.
  9. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,533
    33,035
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    Jamila Douglas is a Titan. Started 3 games
     
  10. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    3,696
    3,743
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    I’ll be damned. He had zero snaps in 2017 and 2018 combined and thought he had dropped out of the NFL.

    Edit to add: Also the Titans have allowed 17 sacks in 3 games, which is 5.7 sacks per game. Last year without Douglas they averaged 2.9 sacks per game.
     
  11. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,533
    33,035
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    Titans star left tackle is suspended.
     
  12. phinswolverinesrockets

    phinswolverinesrockets If he dies, he dies

    3,807
    1,282
    113
    Oct 31, 2013
    Houston
    LT - La. Tunsil (good in Houston)
    LG - Billy Turner (good in GB/Denver)
    C - Mike Pouncey (great in LA)
    RG - John Jerry (good in NY)
    RT - Jawuan James (good in Denver)

    Hell, we had a good offensive line and gave them away...lol. The scrub coaches and scrub QBs were the problem.
     
    mlb1399 likes this.
  13. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

    3,893
    3,087
    113
    Mar 6, 2010
    This is the problem when you’re constantly shuffling coaches. For better or worse, we need to give this 4 years.
     
  14. phinswolverinesrockets

    phinswolverinesrockets If he dies, he dies

    3,807
    1,282
    113
    Oct 31, 2013
    Houston
    I didn't even mention Richie Incognito, who went to 3 straight pro bowls after we got rid of him, lol.
     
    mlb1399 likes this.
  15. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

    4,323
    4,012
    113
    May 2, 2014
    SO Cal
    Revisionist history.

    Turner's nickname was Turnstill. He was leakier than a sieve. Wish I had the inclination to pull up all the posts and complaints about him.

    Pouncey could never stay healthy. He was good when he was in but he was always hurt. Wish I had the inclination to pull up all the posts and complaints about him.
     
  16. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

    4,323
    4,012
    113
    May 2, 2014
    SO Cal
    And like Richie could even be kept on the team due to his "antics".
     
  17. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    His "antics" were not football related and he went to multiple Pro Bowls after leaving Miami. If we want to really get down to the heart of the matter though, we lost Ritchie because we brought in a mentally incompetent tackle in Jonathan Martin and the coaches had to ask Cogs to "toughen him up".

    Using chess analogy, the front office sacrificed a rook to try and protect a pawn.

    To your other posts, what people said or didn't say on the forum has absolutely no bearing on how much potential a player has...especially at offensive line (the position actively watched least by fans). The real problem was that we were starting players like Billy Turner far before they were ready because the conditioning wasn't there and our starters spent most of their season on IR.

    Using chess analogy, the front office sacrificed all their pawns because they were incapable of realizing they had actual value.
     
  18. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    9,149
    9,868
    113
    Dec 9, 2012
    Pretty sure Incognito also sexually harassed a female golf course employee. He is/was a talented guy, but so is Antonio Brown.
     
    Pauly likes this.
  19. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,533
    33,035
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    Don't forget the the ethnic slurs.

    He is a POS.
     
    Pauly likes this.
  20. FphinFantastic

    FphinFantastic Member

    82
    75
    18
    Aug 25, 2019
    Put him on an island in a vacuum and then grade him. Nobody has mentioned the X factor of having a good or mobile qb. A quick release. A good center who can make good line calls? It’s not all coaching. Good for him for finally taking advantage of a system that can support his play. Other than that. It was a good move at the time by this org. Same goes for the other moves. Do what’s best for the team at the very moment the decision is to be made. That’s why all of us are on here analyzing years of moves with marginal at best data and not in the front office getting paid, provided with infinite data to make now decisions.
     
  21. JIGGAJOE

    JIGGAJOE Active Member

    159
    112
    43
    Sep 28, 2015
    As a chess enthusiast, I appreciate your analogies.

     
    KeyFin likes this.

Share This Page