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Do we need to pick a Qb with our first pick?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by dolfan40, Dec 9, 2019.

  1. dolfan40

    dolfan40 Well-Known Member

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    Seing Carson Wentz getting outplayed makes me wonder, probably can get a Qb with our 3rd Pick un the 1st round.

    Only Tua would be worth it.
     
  2. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Do you really think the problem with Wentz is where he was picked? Like, he'd magically play better if he was picked in the 4th round?
     
  3. xphinfanx

    xphinfanx Stay strong my friends.

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    Joe Burrow!
     
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  4. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    The answer is no we don't, but not because of where the pick is located. Its no because I don't think that any of them are worth it this year. If we end up with the #3 or #4 pick and Chase Young is off the board, then I think our best option is to trade down and let someone else take who they feel is the best QB on the board.
     
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  5. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    I would take Burrow if he was available but no one else
     
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  6. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Although I have no basis for this, I have a strong feeling our starting QB next season is Josh Rosen. I do think we draft Tua if he's there and of course we'd take Joe Burrow, but I think we'd pass on anyone else with the first pick. And if we did take Tua, then that sort of reinforces Rosen will be the guy (or it's Fitzpatrick and all my guessing goes out the window).

    I still like Jalen Hurts in the 2nd round if he's available still...and come college playoff time many of you will see why. He's super fun to watch and can make a big play out of nothing- the kid's still raw but he's my kind of development QB prospect!
     
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  7. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    I am gonna take this post one step further. First of all, I share the sentiments that most posters do in which I would take Burrow with the pick; however, at this point, I would be shocked if he was available.

    At the beginning of the season, I thought that this QB class was gonna be fantastic. Now, I have really pivoted from my previous stance. This is where I begin to go against the grain. I think that if you are selecting a QB in the first round, you need to passionately believe in him. I want the guy that we are looking to move up to get. I really believe that to really understand someone, you should ignore their words and focus in on their actions.

    Let's just say that we have 6th pick when all is said and done, and let's also say that the front office likes Jalen Hurts. Let's just say, we draft another position, and try to get him with one of our other two first round picks. That simple action tells us everything that we really need to know. We are saying that if any team values him more than we do, they can go ahead and take him. You have to ask yourself the question, "Are you really committed to that QB?" Just think about those mental gymnastics that waiting entails. "He's not worth taking at the 6th spot, but he is the face of our franchise, but if anyone picks him ahead of us, that is fine too."

    We all know the legend of Stephen Ross telling Grier to trade back, pick up picks, and draft Lamar Jackson. In hindsight, we should have drafted him at 11. In fact, we should have been actively looking to trade up to get him. Who cares what the mocks say? Who cares if we wind up giving up more than we had to in order to get him? Lamar Jackson has transformed the face of the Ravens.

    I think the Bears had the right idea, but the wrong result when they traded their first, two thirds, and a fourth to move up a single spot to get Mitch Trubisky. Their evaluation was obviously incorrect, but they were aggressive when they felt passionate about someone. I don't think two thirds and a fourth will change the course of a franchise. I do think assuring yourself a franchise QB would change the course of a franchise.

    I'll give you guys one last thought experiment. Imagine the year is 2012, and you are the GM for the Dolphins. You believe what no one else believes - that Russel Wilson is a franchise QB and will turn the Dolphins around. You are positive you are seeing what presumably the reset of the NFL is missing. It seems like a consensus that he is a mid round pick.

    Without the benefit of hindsight, what would you do?

    A) Try to get cute. Take him with that the 11th pick of the second or third round. It could be highway robbery to get such a good player for essentially nothing. But you have to wonder, "If you are so sure that he is a franchise QB, you can't possibly be the only GM in the league that feels this way." All it takes is for one of those GMs to be a little bit more aggressive than you, and a franchise QB could slip through your hands.

    B) Take him at 11. Be bold. A QB like this does not come around every day. Yes, you are probably taking him early, but who cares? Again, all it takes is one person to realize what you realize, and the opportunity could pass you by.

    C) Trade up and assure yourself that you land your man. This would be the boldest and draw the biggest boos. Let's say it wound up costing us another 2nd round pick. Almost certainly, this would seem unnecessary. The only question is, "Could you ever be too cautious if you had the chance to land Russel Wilson?" A second round pick is not going to chance course of the franchise. Russel Wilson changed the course of the Seattle Seahawks. The 2nd round pick would be a historical footnote, and history would call your boldness and decisiveness to get a franchise QB a stroke of genius.

    I think that most people when originally asked this question would lean toward "A" as the answer, but as the draft approached, I think "B" and "C" start sounding better and better.

    If you are not willing to be aggressive landing a QB, you really need to question if going in an entirely different direction would be the prudent path.
     
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  8. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Answering who we draft with our first pick is moot until you have the answer to the following question...

    Who is Brian Flores?

    All that’s been discussed is this player and that player...we should get this player, need to get rid of that player. No one’s bothered to truly address WHO and WHAT is Brian Flores and what is his philosophical outlook on football.

    Until you know that answer and whether or not you support it, the question isn’t worth posing.

    I have a feeling however our draft is going to be quite surprising
     
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  9. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    i find it hard to believe that the team would gut the roster the way it did and allow the possibility of being trumped for a qb.

    cinci yeah I’m sure that ship has sailed. But pick 2 if we don’t get it with our own pick is easily available to the highest bidder and teams don’t pay that price to get up there for anything other than qb.
     
  10. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    At one point this season it seemed like this may be a deep quarterback draft.. it doesnt look like it anymore..

    theres only one quarterback being picked in the top 10 and cincy isnt going to let go of Joe Burrow..

    we are in the chase young race at the moment, with the giants being our main competitor..
     
  11. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    No one seems to talk about burrows arm around here.

    how nothing conceptually at lsu is breaking outside the numbers. Most of the concepts are hash to hash. Spread based hash to hash. Coincidence I think not
     
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  12. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    I think this draft has a lot of QBs to take a shot at but very few guaranteed starters. Depending on the round, Love, Eason, Herbert, Fromme, Costello, etc are all draftable.
     
  13. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    IMO, the draft has a lot of potential depth. Five or six guys who might end up being good starters in the NFL. But the problem is that none of them are anything close to being a surefire thing. They all have big question marks, and none deserve to be drafted in the top 10 in a vacuum, when compared to QBs from other classes. But of course, the way that the NFL works is that one or more of them will be drafted really high, because whoever is seen as the best QB often does.
     
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  14. mrbunglez

    mrbunglez New Member

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    I think Love, Eason, and Fromm go back for their senior years to build themselves up for the 2021 draft. If that happens I think that 2021 draft will be stacked with QBs if Fields and Lawrence declare as well.

    Edit: Was wrong about Love he just declared for the draft.
     

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    Last edited: Dec 10, 2019
  15. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Bingo. And that release . . . no thank you. Inconsistencies abound.
     
  16. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Stats aren't everything, but he chose to declare after a JR year that was MUCH worse than the one before it. 17/16 TD ratio, only 60.0%. And that's at a very small time D1 school. Have to wonder if even those DCs figured him out.
     
  17. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    Loves got a ton of upside and the nfl loves upside when it comes to early pick QBs. tools and upside
     
  18. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    Only if they have a real conviction about one of these guys. I still think the only two that are top ten worthy are Tua and Burrow and Tua may just be too much of an injury risk. I also like the idea of Hurts as a developmental type guy. I think he has more upside than anyone in the draft and he is certainly the most dynamic. Fromm is another guy I would consider in the 1st round but much later, not the top 10.
     
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  19. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Come college playoff time people will see why he won't make it to the second round. They will have to either pick him with the Houston pick or trade that pick to a team that wants him if they don't. If Hurt's goes any lower than 23 or so I'll be surprised.
     
  20. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    I don't think Eason will be back either. Just got a new head coach. Already transferred once and had a battle for his job this year. If he gets advice that he could be late first or 2nd rd pick he should declare. Not his fault the team did not meet expectations this year. Gaskins fault for going to the NFL. Eason should come join him.:)
     
  21. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    It pains me to say this, but with Tua’s injuries I don’t think there is a sure fire franchise QB in this draft. So, if that is the case we probably should go BPA. To me, that doesn’t mean we won’t draft a QB it might mean we just get one later. I also hope we are aggressive with our picks with trade ups for targeted players, and trade backs for extra resources. For example, trading our last pick in the 1st. to accumulate an extra 2nd or so, and then trade that 2nd for a 1st next year.
     
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2019
  22. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    One big problem right now is that the draft is in flux. We could be picking 4th, or we could move much further back, so our first pick could be significantly different than it is now.

    Here are the top 15 teams in the draft as of today:

    upload_2019-12-11_14-14-51.png

    How many of them are likely, do we think, to target a QB with their first pick?

    Bengals seem a lock.
    Redskins are questionable.
    Detroit...probably not.
    Arizona no.
    Jacksonville no.
    Falcons no...?
    Jets unlikely.
    Chargers maybe...
    Denver yes.
    Panthers maybe.
    Philly no.
    Raiders...no.
    Colts maybe.

    So we could be looking at a scenario where only two teams other than Miami are going QB, maybe 5. Even that's significantly different.

    If Miami drop further - and they almost certainly will - I don't bottom half of the top 10 hurts their chances at a QB much unless a bidding/trade war ensues. If they want Tua, they might need to just drop their #1 pick to be sure to get him. Better that than multiple picks...right?

    Then again, what is the Bengals want to multiply picks? They might sacrifice the #1 pick for that purpose. Do we sell the farm to get Burrow?

    Right now I don't see how we can look at this in any real way until the draft order becomes more fixed AND the college players all declare. Tua isn't guaranteed to enter the draft. Burrow is. Only Love has declared so far...

    Right or wrong, in Flores and Grier we're going to have to trust. Let's see what they come up with.
     
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  23. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Release is probably the least important thing in a QB unless its ridiculously bad and long. Consistency is the most important thing.

    Have you ever watched Mahomes throw for instance? He has potentially the ugliest throwing motion I've ever seen on a QB in the NFL.

    Does it impact his ability to play QB? Nope. There are a ton of QB with bad throwing motions. Normally they arent even made over entirely but just slightly tweaked.
     
  24. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    I know we need a QB, but my hope is we don’t force it.
     
  25. Striking

    Striking Junior Member

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    I hope they build the foundation and choose a QB later, 2nd 3rd round because there seem to be several that could fall to this range who have some potential.
    Adding a 3rd first round pick for 2022 would be ideal because I want to have the ability to choose Lawrence if the opportunity is available even if it means giving up 3 1sts to do it.
    Tua has surgery on both ankles and now on the hip in essentially two seasons as a starter. Scary.
     
  26. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Are you joking? Please, tell me you're kidding.

    Where do you think consistency comes from? By nature a longer throwing motion allows for more error and inconsistency. A compact throwing motion, as well as proper lower body movement, is essential for accuracy and consistency. Do not confuse this with arm strength and throwing off platform where occasional play is made. The one area I give credit to Lazor is that he coached up Tannehill's footwork and tightened his throwing motion which allowed him to be even more accurate.

    Let's also address that Mahomes is not consistent with his throws and is not one of the more accurate passers in the NFL. Fact is he is middle ground in the league concerning accuracy. He benefits greatly from a great offensive mind in Reid and wide open offense surrounded by a lot of complimentary receiving options.
     
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2019
  27. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I'd much rather have a QB that does well because of his throwing motion than one who does well in spite of it.
     
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  28. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    I don’t have an issue with burrows release I just wonder how much defenses can clog the middle of the field between the hashes and take away burrows bread and butter.

    probably be smart to bring his college oc with him.
     
  29. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    And I’m a hell no on jalen hurts
     
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  30. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Agreed, they need a QB, and Burrow seems to be it, unless someone high up already has a love for Tua? Doubtful with the injury.

    Yeah, I think they like Haskins enough to go OT or DE

    Do they want to move on from Stafford? A fairly new coach wanting his own QB is always possible.

    Agreed.

    With the salary cap hit, they will need to keep Foles another year, as backup to Minshew. They might as well see how 2020 goes before looking at QB in 2021 if needed.

    I think they'd love to get a project QB, but a trade down first would be needed.

    They need a DE or OL help. Hopefully Gase has ruined the Jests by the time he is fired in the middle of the 2020 season.

    Another team needing a project QB (if Rivers comes back) or a potential starter for 2020.

    Nope, they are thrilled with the play of Lock and that will carry over till next year at the very least. They go OL.

    A real wild card. They need a coach first, then he'll probably want his own QB to build around.

    Agreed.

    I think Gruden is okay with Carr.

    Is there someone better in the draft than Brissett at where they'll pick? I think they give him one more year as he plays out his contract.
     
  31. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    You never mentioned anything about footwork previously.


    Arm angle isnt particularly important. It's been proven in Baseball as well that what matters in terms of pitch accuracy is consistency within the release itself.

    Again of course there are rare exceptions like Byron Leftwich who took seemingly an hour to get through his motion.

    I did say as long as it isnt too slow, but the speed can generally be improved more easily and effectively than entirely changing the arm slot with minor tweaks.

    Footwork I'd agree is highly important.
     
  32. plc001

    plc001 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't think I've ever seen a draft where someone was a lock to be an NFL starter since Luck. All QBs have weakness or need development. Heck, look at Mahomes, he rode the bench for a year. My point is, the real problem with Miami over the past couple of decades has been player development. Having draft picks without player development won't mean squat. We'll be right here in 5 years complaining about the same stuff.

    We can be less concerned about the QB we draft if we can shore up our development/coaching skills.
     
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  33. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    That's blatantly false. Most exercise scientists and kinesiologists will tell you that throwing a football at an elite level is the most complex motor skill in all of sports. It's nothing like throwing a baseball as pitchers aim for a static target a mere 20 yards directly in front of them. Now, imagine a pitcher trying to hit his target while it moves 20+ mph up to 50 yards downfield. Not to mention how easy it is to grip a small spherical ball compared to the much larger oblong shape of a football.

    Footwork is only a small part of a QB's throwing mechanics. The entire body motion is of vast importance to achieve consistent accuracy. While there are also other very important factors, such as hip, torso, and shoulder torque, etc. let's just focus on the area you lack knowledge in by declaring it not particularly important.

    Here's a breakdown of 4 key positions of the arm motion in the kinetic chain:

    1. Pre Pass Triangle – The kinetic chain in the arm starts in the Pre Pass Triangle position. With the elbows level at the base and a loaded wrist in the “cocked” position off the back shoulder, the triangle shape provides for a powerful position to launch the football. If the body was going to throw a punch it would load the arm instinctually in the same position. The Pre Pass Triangle position reduces tendency to internally rotate (wind up) on the throw, aligns arm in a power position, and reduces wasted motion for a faster release.

    2. “L” Transistion
    – The next position in the kinetic chain during the throw. The move to this position is done by using the 4 rotator cuff muscles that surround the scapula. The infrasprinatus and teres minor externally rotate the arm back into the “L” position. When the arm is in the “L” position it elongates the suprasprinatus and subscapularis which allow the muscles to accelerate the elbow to the lead position.

    3. Elevate to “Zero” – The lead position the elbow has to be in to support the wrist. You may have heard coaches say “get the elbow up”. The elbow only needs to go high enough to get over and ahead of the shoulder on the throw. The smoothness and efficiency of this move is the key to consistent power and accuracy on a throw. With the loading of the suprasprinatus and subscapularis muscles in the “L” position the elbow can now elevate and move ahead of the shoulder aided by the deltoid to get to “Zero”. “Zero” is orthopedic term given to the elbow in the lead position because the rotator cuff muscles are neutral with no strain on them. The “Zero” position places the elbow 6 inches ahead of the shoulder 45 degrees up and out and loads the tricep in a position to fire the ball down the target hallway.

    4. Extension – The kinetic chain of power that occurs as the tricep fires energy up through arm and out through the wrist/fingers into the ball. If the wrist fires early before the tricep the kinetic chain is out of order and the ball will sail or wobble. A quarterback that pulls down on the football does not extend and therefore is not getting the full benefit of the tricep. When trying to understand the power of extension on a throw, think of the difference between a pistol and a sniper rifle. Which one is more accurate and can shoot the bullet further? The sniper rifle. Why? It has a longer barrel that allows the force and spin to act longer on the bullet which in turn puts more accuracy and velocity in the bullet as it comes out of the barrel.

    And last but not least, here's a few statistics to ponder about proper throwing mechanics. With even a minor hitch in a QB's release of even one-tenth of a second in a throwing motion is enough time for a defender to move a full yard, and a football traveling 30 yards, spinning or wobbling more than 4 degrees off its axis, will wind up 5 feet off its target.

    Every part of a QB's throwing motion is very important, all the way from the toes to the fingers.
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2019
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  34. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Its hard for me to understand how any person could spend time throwing a football around with friends and not realize how important it is to do everything in the process correctly.
     
  35. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    No kidding. Like you better have a case of ice cold beers ready for when the game of catch is over
     
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  36. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    That's all well and good, but I still disagree.

    Again you started talking about a hitch which I never mentioned. You are bringing things into the argument that have nothing to do with what I said.

    Should a QB throw underhanded? Of course not.

    What I'm talking about is there not being ONE SPECIFIC angle your arm can come from to deliver a good pass.

    I really doubt the validity of those accuracy measures because I know people who throw side arm basically and can hit people in stride consistently.

    Of course they arent NFL level players, and throwing side arm in the NFL isnt a good idea, but it isnt due to accuracy.

    There isnt one and only one "correct" way to throw a football or else ever coach from Pop Warner up would be teaching it to a QB.

    I'll maintain in that consistency within the release has more to do with accuracy than anything else with the caveat that delivery should fall into a certain range, not have a hitch, and not be too slow.

    You're also damning him for one of the easiest things to change in a QB. You can teach a better throwing motion, you cant teach the ability to read a defense on the fly, finding your second option, extending a play, so forth very easily if at all. So even if I were to concede the point, I still wouldnt agree with your assessment which is really the point at the end of the day.
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2019
  37. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Most people arent going to choose some wacky motion that hurts their arm.

    Not counting a hitch in the delivery or poor footwork, most other arm angles are going to fall into a range where consistency is more important than the angle itself.

    If you can develop a slightly better angle CONSISTENTLY that's great. My point is that when you try and overhaul a motion that doesnt need an overhaul because it falls into an acceptable range you are just going to create further inconsistency. In the arm slots and motion.

    You're also both confusing the term "Least Important" with "Not Important" which isnt implied at all.

    Things that can be fixed, adjusted, tweaked, ect will always fall into the least important category. It doesnt mean I'm saying it has 0 impact.

    What I'm saying is that there are 100 more important things than the exact angle he releases the ball because:

    1) Consistently using the same motion, your accuracy will be better within the motion. The same way by doing puzzles you will get better at them. That doesnt imply his motion is technically better, it implies it works for him due to repeated repetition.

    2) If its beyond acceptable limits it can be tweaked more easily than the ability to read a defense on the field or feel pressure.
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2019
  38. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Seems like a lot of what I’ve read is most of the top tier QB’s weren’t selected in the top 5 so I’m fine with building a defense or OL with our top picks or all of our picks this year if we don’t love anyone. Being real, this is gonna be a 2 year process minimally and we’ve got the picks to move around if our staff finds someone this year or next.
     
  39. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    While I do agree this is a process and it is possible to find a QB later, what you are really doing is relying on other teams to scout poorly.

    It does happen because they are human, but the reality is that human sentiment about irrelevant things is what makes these guys drop.

    Wilson dropped because he isnt 6'1 to 6'4

    Rodgers dropped because of where he went to college IMO

    Brady dropped because well hes an exception, he never showed anything in college that would lead you to believe hed be a great QB.

    Mahomes -needed- to sit a year which is why he dropped along with terrible mechanics. I know I pointed him out as someone with bad mechanics that has succeeded, but at first it was beyond even my ability to accept it.

    All examples of poor scouting and human intuition about what makes a QB being wrong. It does happen and will continue to, but usually those guys should have been taken earlier.
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2019
  40. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I'm personally anti-wacky motion. That was my point. The cleaner that you are with your feet, legs, hips, shoulders, arm, wrist and at least four of your fingers (depending on grip), the better the throw is going to be. Quarterbacks who get away with poor form always frustrate me, because then people think its ok for others to get sloppy.
     
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