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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Somewhere in Nashville you have Mariota apologists claiming he should still be the starter.

    Internet message boards in a NUTshell.
     
  2. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Questioning his motivation really seems out of left field. I cannot think of anyone doing so before you. His heart has never been an issue. Plenty of other things have been pointed at, but I don't ever remember seeing that.
     
  3. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Speculating that he could be more motivated now than ever before because he wants to keep his job and earn a bigger future contract, which will likely be his last in the league, doesn't necessarily imply that his motivation prior was lacking or deficient.

    If someone you love is trapped under a car and you get an adrenaline spike and lift the car off of them, it doesn't mean you were a useless pile of jello beforehand.
     
    AGuyNamedAlex and Two Tacos like this.
  4. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Not really a valid comparison to my mind. The day in and day out preparation and planning involved to have many weeks of great play vs an adrenaline spike. I'm trying, but not seeing the validity of your point.

    Tannehill rehabbed two devastating injuries. He grinds. Far more likely that he actually was starting to come on in 2016, after he said the game was finally starting to slow down, and had that derailed by injuries that took longer than a season to comeback from. That seems like the simplest explanation. I like simple.
     
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  5. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Aaaand what was Adam Gase’s offense predicated on?
    Screens and bombs downfield and neglecting the intermediate routes.
     
    Tin Indian likes this.
  6. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    I can accept that.
     
    Fin-O likes this.
  7. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Ya, I mean, god forbid somebody else on the team have to do their job for the offense to have high-level success...much easier to put it all on the QB...it's the Dolphin Way.
     
  8. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Stats show his the best season QB ever. Stats also says he was a huge choker in the playoffs.
     
  9. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Great coaches gets their teams 3 points just off brain-trust

    There's not alot of good/great coaches in the league. Its honestly a crapshoot.
     
  10. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Alot of Titans fans think of Mariota like how Dolphins fans think of Tannehill.
     
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  11. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    On the few Titans boards I've been on recently...this is most definitely true.
     
    Cashvillesent likes this.
  12. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Right, wasn't implying that Tannehill is experiencing the equivalent of an adrenaline spike, only that surges in motivation don't necessarily mean a person's baseline level of motivation is lacking.

    And that's entirely possible; however, it's inconsistent with the fact that he "came on" very similarly in 2014, and then dipped in 2015.

    We'll know far more in about a year.
     
  13. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    But what if the best QBs in the league are the best largely because they experience similar quantities and qualities of pressure, but are able to evade it and extend plays and hit passes downfield at a much greater rate?

    If that's true, then it doesn't really matter who we're putting the blame on for QB pressure. The point is that the trait the great QBs have of evading it and extending plays distinguishes them from the lesser QBs.
     
  14. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I think that’s an oversimplification. Had Tannehill struggled the was Mariotta has and Matt Moore came in and took us on a huge long winning streak after being dumped by his former team, I think we Dolphins fans might realize that it should have been Moore from the start.

    Tennessee fans I believe are awakening to the realization that for them it should have been Tannehill all season. They’re a heart beat away from the AFC South and the playoffs under Tannehill...something that wasn’t even remotely feasible after week 5 under Mariotta
     
    resnor likes this.
  15. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    FYI Texans have a top 5 run defense this year
     
  16. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Very true, when I was in the GM League the Titans were my team so I signed up on one of the message boards for some extra insight. It really is very similar to the debates we had here. Extreme positions either way, not much middle ground.
     
    Tin Indian, PhinFan1968 and Irishman like this.
  17. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    And a raggedy *** pass defense. Could be a squirrely game.

    Out of curiosity, what's that top 5 run defense based on?
     
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2019
    Fin-O likes this.
  18. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Then the QBs performance would not vary as their OL play varies and we know that isn't true. I can point you to article after article after article that discuss the impact of poor OL play on elite QBs (Brady, Wilson, Rodgers, etc). Are some QBs better able deal with pressure? Sure. Just like some are more accurate, some are better at certain passes, etc.
     
    The Guy and resnor like this.
  19. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    When capping games I always differ to YPA for rushing. Especially once you get to weeks 10+ where the sample size/relative opponents are a little less murky.

    That being said, I think Henry and will be just fine today. Try and load that box and you will get Tannehill to AJ Brown up ur behind.

    Texans have no true #1 CB they could possibly trust. So they have some matchup problems in my opinion.
     
  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/quarterbacks-and-pressure-2016

    In the table about halfway down the page at the above link, there are 18 QBs listed with regard to performance under pressure and without pressure, in the five seasons between 2012 and 2016. Here are the z-scores for the QBs in the table, in terms of performance under pressure:

    Ben Roethlisberger 1.84
    Russell Wilson 1.59
    Aaron Rodgers 0.83
    Matt Ryan 0.81
    Tom Brady 0.71
    Andrew Luck 0.42
    Matthew Stafford 0.19
    Carson Palmer 0.11
    Colin Kaepernick 0.11
    Ryan Fitzpatrick 0.09
    Cam Newton -0.35
    Philip Rivers -0.46
    Drew Brees -0.59
    Eli Manning -0.66
    Alex Smith -0.66
    Joe Flacco -0.96
    Andy Dalton -1.32
    Ryan Tannehill -2.22

    With the exception of Drew Brees, we see the QBs typically regarded as elite clustered at the top, meaning that they outperform the others under pressure. Tannehill on the other hand is by far the worst of the QBs listed.

    So it's true that performance varies as a function of pressure, because as the table clearly indicates, the performance for all QBs was suppressed under pressure. However, the best QBs in the league show less a suppression of performance under those conditions.

    The take-home message is that Tom Brady, despite that he plays worse under pressure as do all QBs, hasn't needed as good an offensive line as Ryan Tannehill.
     
  21. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    If I was signed up in a Titans message board, I’d let them know how happy I am for them and congratulate them on getting Tannehill.

    As Miami is definitely way out of the picture I’m hitching my wagon on the Titans the remainder of the season. Closest thing I can get behind to cheer for this year
     
  22. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Guess it’s a good thing that football is actually a TEAM sport. If I want to cheer an individual athlete, I’ll choose a boxer or a golfer or any other individual sport athlete, not just a quarterback
     
  23. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Whether any of us cheers for a team or an individual in football has no bearing on the importance of the performance of quarterbacks in today's game. The teams selecting at the top of this year's draft certainly aren't going to pattern their draft strategy after what any one of us cheers for.
     
  24. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Simply not enough info here. Despite what you keep trying to peddle, you cannot separate the play of the OL just by looking at the numbers. There are far too many variables, including type of pressure, number of people applying pressure, time to pressure, down and distance, etc, etc.

    You CAN note the difference in play of a single QB in a single season with and without a good performing OL as injuries happen, the line gels, etc.
     
  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    What that would mean, given the data, is that virtually all of the best QBs in the league were experiencing something fundamenally different with regard to those pressure variables than the other QBs, during the five seasons of play between 2012 and 2016.

    Do you figure that's true, or do you figure the best QBs in the league are simply just better at performing under pressure?
     
  26. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I’ll be rooting for them also, they get the win today and a division title looks really good.
     
  27. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Define importance of quarterback play because if you’re talking about say yards thrown, Prescott, Winston, Rivers,Ryan and Goff leads the league in passing yards and yet, every one of these teams have losing records.

    Touchdown passes, well Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson top that category but scrub Jamie’s Winston and Dak Prescott are right up there as well.

    While I admit the importance of the quarterback, my position has been and always will be a better overall TEAM will beat an elite quarterback every time. If that overall team includes an elite quarterback so be it but that quarterback didn’t do it all by himself and is an insult to the other 52 players on the team
     
    resnor likes this.
  28. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Don't waste your time bro...eyeball comparisons are inferior and unworthy of credit.
     
    resnor likes this.
  29. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    I don’t really know but they are stout in the middle. Last game I saw they said they were ranked #3 vs it.

    that dt reader guy is carrying it I think.
     
  30. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    As previously stated no-one is questioning his heart or dedication.

    However, certain things in life can drive us to new levels we didnt know existed. That is the implication.
     
    The Guy likes this.
  31. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You should always use rushing Y/A and not rushing attempts or rushing yards per game because the primary difference between winning and losing teams in rushing attempts (on average of course) is in the 4th quarter when the team with the lead is trying to run out the clock.

    In other words, causality is: more rushing attempts or rushing yards because you have the lead, not the other way around.

    And Tennessee is tied for #7 in rushing Y/A on defense right now:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/opp.htm

    Same concept here: it's efficiency that matters, not volume stats, at least for QB's and RB's. And the best simple measure of that is passer rating. The leaders are: Tannehill, Jackson, Cousins, Brees, Wilson, Stafford, Mahomes, Garroppolo, Rodgers, Watson, all on winning teams except Stafford.

    Statistically, the correlation between passer rating and win% across NFL history is 0.633, which means that 0.633^2 = 40.07% of win% is explained by that stat. So that shows you how important that passing stat is for win%.

    btw.. I should also mention that there's an even simpler passing stat that's almost as good as passer rating: NY/A which is (passing yards - sack yards)/(passing attempts + times sacked). Its correlation to win% is 0.6067 which is nearly as good as passer rating without including TD's and INT's. So that's also something you can use. Again though it's an efficiency stat.


    Here's the interesting thing though: efficiency matters for measuring QB's and RB's, but not so much for WR's. Look at the list of top WR's based on career yards and career TD's, both of which are volume stats and you get a high correlation to them being in the HoF. Look at that list based on efficiency like yards per reception and the correlation is fairly low (in fact total TD's seems to work best).
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/all_td_career.htm

    So it's not always efficiency that matters, but for QB's and RB's that's what you should look for: for QB's because of correlation to win% and for RB's because of the confound with running out the clock.
     
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  32. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Interesting finding there regarding receivers. Is it possible to look at yards per target as well?
     
  33. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I don't see the search option immediately, but PFR has a post on it:
    https://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2016/01/find-nfl-yards-per-target-leaders-since-1992/

    Leaders since 1992 are Jordy Nelson, DeSean Jackson, Malcolm Floyd, Rob Gronkowski, Julio Jones, Marques Colston, Vincent Jackson, Calvin Johnson. Better than yards per reception, but still not as good total receiving TD's or total receiving yards.
     
    The Guy likes this.
  34. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    No it doesn't. In addition to Brees, who you have already noted, there is also Rivers and Smith with negative z scores and Matt Ryan with a score the same at Rodgers and Brady.

    So you have a mix. Some are very good at escaping pressure and making plays (Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Wilson), some have situations where blitzes are required to get pressure (which opens up opportunities). Similar numbers simply do not mean the same situations exist.
     
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  35. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Is your big take away that Brady is better than Tannehill? LOL.
     
  36. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    https://www.bostonherald.com/2014/08/07/how-offensive-line-protects-tom-brady-key-to-success/

    upload_2019-12-15_13-4-8.png


    https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/...torm-nicely/Z2gHxTVWr975NdJKBa48nK/story.html
     
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  37. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    What a throw from Tanny to AJ Brown again from the endzone. Shesh
     
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  38. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Here again are the z-scores for performance under pressure, accompanied by career passer ratings:

    Ben Roethlisberger 1.84; 94.0
    Russell Wilson 1.59; 101.2
    Aaron Rodgers 0.83; 103.0
    Matt Ryan 0.81 ; 94.7
    Tom Brady 0.71 ; 97.0
    Andrew Luck 0.42; 89.5
    Matthew Stafford 0.19; 89.3
    Carson Palmer 0.11; 87.
    Colin Kaepernick 0.11; 88.9
    Ryan Fitzpatrick 0.09; 81.1
    Cam Newton -0.35; 86.1
    Philip Rivers -0.46; 95.3
    Drew Brees -0.59; 98.0
    Eli Manning -0.66; 84.1
    Alex Smith -0.66; 87.3
    Joe Flacco -0.96; 84.1
    Andy Dalton -1.32; 87.9
    Ryan Tannehill -2.22; 89.1

    An analysis of variance reveals that the top five QBs on that list have an average career passer rating of 97.98 (SD = 15.78). The other 13 QBs have an average passer rating of 88.35 (SD = 19.98).

    That difference is significant at a 0.00067 level of probability, meaning that the top five QBs on the list have performed significantly better with regard to career passer rating than the other 13.

    So again, the finding is that the QBs typically regarded as elite, and who also have significantly higher career passer ratings, generally perform better under pressure than other QBs.

    If that were explained entirely by the kinds of pressure they experienced, we'd have to say that the top five QBs on the list -- as a group -- also experienced significantly less difficult pressure variables than the other 13 QBs.

    Again, how likely is that, versus how likely is it that those QBs are simply better at performing under pressure?
     
  39. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That's a different study. The results of this one show that Brady and many others perform far better under pressure than Tannehill, and that it's highly unlikely due to the kinds of pressure they experience.

    And of course that's entirely consistent with many of the comments made in this thread, centering on Tannehill's difficulty with sensing and evading pressure, by people who've presumably watched him play a great deal.

    So not only is there objective statistical support for the idea, but there also appears to be consensus with regard to the "eye test" in this regard.

    It doesn't get much more convincing than that on a message board.
     
  40. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Nothing in football is explained entirely by one thing.......nothing.
     
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