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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    VERY few. I just wish everyone understood that the very few are the extreme minority and not the majority.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 21, 2019
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  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    There are typically six quarterbacks a year that function in that manner, so yes, the small minority.

    The issue is the likelihood that you can get a QB the surroundings he needs to function at that level consistently after his salary cap hit becomes possibly prohibitive of assembling and sustaining those surroundings.
     
  3. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    So we’re back to the “he needs great surroundings to be successful argument?

    This has been debunked so many times. Like we never get anywhere because once we get through all the arguments, someone recycles an old argument. Frustration ensues, as we rehash the same things.

    It’s pretty simple. In Miami, Tannehill did not have:

    1. Dominant run game
    2. Average blocking
    3. Top 10 defense in points allowed

    (things people AGAIN are claiming he needs)

    So, knowing those things, HOW IS IT REASONABLE to conclude that Tannehill needs the leagues BEST in those categories for the team to be successful? It’s not a reasonable conclusion. A reasonable conclusion would be that he needs at least average help in those areas for the team to be successful. Of course, that is the case for every QB that is playing for a successful team. That, however, doesn’t fit the narrative of Tannehill being not good enough.
     
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  4. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    People are emotionally invested in Tannehill not being good enough. When he plays well they can’t help but try to explain it away.
     
  5. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    You didn’t mention him, but I’m going to use Brady as an example. I’m sitting here watching the Buffalo vs New England game and the Patriots are RUNNING the ball. All of this running just set up a nice play action by Brady so...

    Even the GREAT quarterbacks need a strong OL, a good running game and everything else you guys are saying that Tannehill needs...because he’s just not that good of a quarterback.

    Hell, if Tannehill has surrounding him what Brady has, we’d be all up in his jock strap
     
  6. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    upload_2019-12-21_18-11-5.jpeg
     
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  7. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    What you're saying (highlighted above) is easily testable. Tell me how you want to measure teams' running the ball, how you want to measure how great quarterbacks are, and I'll do the work of determining the relationship between those two variables throughout the league over whatever number of years you would like.
     
  8. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Definitive meaning regarding Tannehill's performance in terms of his ability can be made only with a good bit more data. Whether someone is biased for or against Tannehill is immaterial with regard to whether definitive meaning can be made of his performance with regard to his ability at the present time.

    One could just as easily say that people who are emotionally invested in Tannehill's being good enough are in a rush to make definitive meaning of his ability from too small a sample of his play.
     
  9. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL. Nobody needs your definitive meaning. His play is confirming what the Tannehill supporters said about the situation in Miami holding him back. You have conveniently moved the goal posts from "can he play at a high level and elevate his teammates?" to "can he do it again? how about again? again? again? again?................"
     
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  10. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I completely disagree- it falls on Grier. Flores could have won 6-8 games this season with the talent we ended last season with so in my opinion, this season has nothing to do with him other than a couple of surprising wins. Next year Flores will be at Grier's mercy as well....what if we draft Tua and he rides the bench for the year? What if we don't bring in 4 starting-caliber linemen? Or any semblance of guys that can get after the passer? That's not on Flores at all.

    You can make lemonade out of lemons....but so far Flores has a few rocks, a paperclip and a pile of dirt. You have to actually give him the lemons first....

    But here's the ultra-frustrating part. Flores gets a pass this season, next season and maybe even the season after that. After all, it's why we gave him a 5-year guaranteed contract. So we might not know what we have in a coach until 2021 or even 2022 if Grier picks all the right talent every time. What happens if Tua doesn't develop though? Or what if we don't even draft Tua...who do we roll the dice with at quarterback? There are so many variables in play here and I don't think any of them come back to Flores and his staff for at least a couple more seasons.

    And let's pretend for a moment we decide in 3 years Flores is definitely the guy. The only way that happens is if Grier also does great and we're not moving into our newest rebuild after cleaning house. That would be amazing....but I think we'd have to have a few playoff wins to make that statement in 2022.

    The other problem comes in when we're not sure what we have....we're a pretty good 8-8 or 9-7 team that maybe plays a wildcard game or just misses the playoffs. Then what...how do we assign blame? Grier definitely gets fired and we'll still have no idea if Flores is the right guy or not. It's all a roll of the dice and it's going to be that way for quite some time UNLESS Grier has two unbelievable drafts and free agency hiring back to back. Because if there's still holes next season and we can't block, rush the QB, etc. then it's going to be just like evaluating Rosen this season....we'll have no idea where we stand.
     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2019
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  11. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    If the question is "can he play at a high level and elevate his teammates," the answer to that question is yes for almost all starting quarterbacks in the league. Tannehill has played at a high level and elevated his teammates in the past, in fact.

    The question for me about Tannehill is whether he has the ability of one of league's best QBs, and that requires more data to answer. I respect that that may not be the question for you, however.
     
  12. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    Not to Butt in, and with all due respect....It's just simply so hard to trust him (Tannehill). I think that's why people keep moving the line further and further back. We've seen him bail countless times during this stretch of the season. 2016 being the injury, while the others were just him no elevating his play.
    I've watched him extensively playing for the Titans this year. He's the same guy, but he's got an elite running back and a solid offensive line keeping him up. His play reminds me of his 2016 season before he was injured and that play was absolutely good enough for me at that time. Until this season, 2016 was by far his best season in terms of stats and those numbers correlating to wins. We were winning, and he was playing well. Same thing is happening in Nashville and there's no reason to think he can't continue to put up solid numbers along with winning games as long as the stability at those positions are in place. I am a huge fan of what he has done this year for that team and I couldn't be happier for him as a former player of Miami. Still rooting for them to somehow find their way into the playoffs.
     
  13. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    5-year guaranteed contract just means he is guaranteed 5 years worth of salary, nothing else. Ross can fire him tomorrow if he wants.

    In any case, it's worth noting some statistics for HoF coaches that coached ONLY in the SB era:
    1) The average win% in year 1 is 34.43%
    2) The average win% in year 2 is 55.75%
    3) The average win% in year 3 is 65.51%
    4) The average win% in year 4 is 69.23%

    So that stat tells you that it's totally fine for Flores to have a losing record this year, but that we should already expect 8-9 wins next year and there's no excuse for not being a strong winning team by year 3 or year 4. For reference, 65% win% is 10 wins and 69% is 11 wins.
     
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  14. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I agree with you but at the same time, how many of those HOF coaches had their roster completely stripped down to nothing for year 1? This has never happened before in the NFL, to this degree anyway, so we're sort of in uncharted territories on how to analyze success. For instance, I'm not expecting 9 wins next season just because we have so many needs up and down the roster. Our three wins this season were on heart alone...guys playing above their pay-grade to get a 2nd audition next year. I don't know if Flores gets that level of effort from veteran free agents and drafted rookies if the team talent level is still the worst in the league.

    I hope I'm wrong...that would be awesome...but I have a feeling that we'll really be testing that "5 year guarantee" a few seasons from now. And I know that the guarantee is financial only, but from that initial press conference I had the feeling that Ross was saying that he'd give Flores 5 years to prove himself since we would definitely stink this season. Nobody would take the job otherwise since it would be career suicide.
     
  15. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    How "stripped down" a roster is is subjective. It's better to just look at win% for the first year and compare to Flores' first year. I mean.. these are some of the best coaches in NFL history so you should expect they'll get the most out of the roster they have.

    Out of the 8 HoF coaches that coached ONLY in the SB era, half of them did really poorly their first year:
    - Chuck Noll went 1-13 his first year
    - Bill Walsh went 2-14 his first year
    - Marv Levy went 4-12 his first year
    - Bill Parcells went 3-11-1 his first year

    I think that's fairly indicative of how "stripped down" a roster is. Parcells was a winner by year 2, Walsh by year 3, Levy went 8-8 in year 3 and then 9-7 in year 4, and Noll took till year 4 to post a 11-3 record. So while you might not expect 8-9 wins in year 2 for coaches with such a "stripped down" roster, you still do expect a winning season by year 3-4.

    And I doubt all those coaches had the wealth of draft picks we have for years 2-3.
     
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  16. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    This team's first two games shattered the all-time record for score differential. The 2019 Dolphins, by many accounts, are unprecedented. Not only did they ship off a majority of the "talent" on the roster, but other talent was injured/unavailable, and almost a quarter of the roster joined the team the week before the season started. Yes it's subjective, but those records for those four coaches scream "coach installing his system" more-so than just talent level.

    Vegas had Miami at 4 wins'ish before the season, and that was before injuries to key players (some of the few remaining talent), and the shipping off of some major talent. The point spreads they started applying to Miami games after the first few weeks were college-like.

    I think that comparison is green apples to red apples.
     
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  17. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    People are forgetting a lot of NFL history when suggesting that the 2019 Dolphins are in a situation so bad it's "unprecedented".

    You want my vote for weakest roster in NFL history? Try the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Expansion team and the expansion draft was full of washed up vets. Did that team have ANY talent worth mentioning? Dolphins have at least SOME talent. They were the first team to go 0-14 and had a whopping -287 point differential across 14 games, which translates to on average losing by 20.5 points per game! For comparison, despite a terrible start the 2019 Dolphins are at -194 point differential after 14 games.

    And what about Cleveland? In 2016 they go 1-15 and then follow that up with an 0-16 season. There is no better barometer of how good or bad a team is than their record over larger sample size, and 1-31 across 2 seasons trumps anything we're going through.

    In any case, Vegas put us at 4.5 wins right before the season started, so after the key trades. They also had us at +300 (25% probability) to go winless after the first 2 games. In other words they thought it was extremely unlikely we'd go winless.. something I kept pointing out after those first 2 games to posters saying there's no way we'll win a game this season.

    No.. we're nowhere near the "worst" in NFL history, not talent-wise (which is subjective but try arguing against the 1976 Bucs) nor record-wise nor point differential-wise (those are objective). So from that point of view I agree: it's green apples to red apples.
     
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  18. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    The Titans OL has widely been considered trash for at least 2 years. The only people I see claiming the Titans OL is strong are the people wanting to fit what has happened into the pre-written “Tanny needs a strong OL” narrative.

    As for (2) the Titans D is currently ranked 8th in points allowed and 19th in yards allowed. If you dig into their defensive rankings on things like yards allowed per pass, turnovers, yards per drive they are middle of the pack, ranking between 10 and 20 for most indicators. They certainly aren’t a strong D, more like quietly competent.
     
  19. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Oh I can definitely get behind "not the worst ever," but those four coaches/teams you listed most certainly had more talent. Not a chance they had a better draft future, but they had talent. The "unprecedented" I'm talking about is the amount of ditching talent they did...I don't recall ever hearing of a team doing that, to that extent.
     
  20. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I see.. that kind of history I'm not as familiar with (roster purge), but one recent one I am: Jets in 2017.

    Jets in the 2017 offseason got rid of the following players:

    Darrelle Revis
    Nick Mangold
    Brandon Marshall
    Ryan Fitzpatrick
    Eric Decker
    David Harris
    ..
    and some others in what was actually called "The Purge" in NY. Not sure it's clear our purge is worse.
     
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  21. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah I wasn't suggesting he was getting any of that at present. The post you quoted was only theoretical, in terms of what would be needed to compensate for his primary weakness. What's happening now I think is attributable to entirely different, situational factors that aren't replicable, and so it makes little sense to say that Tannehill "needs" those things to perform at this level.
     
  22. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    It’s not a matter of statistically measuring how much a team runs the ball. It’s a matter of whether or not you do that’s the factor. I’ve repeated myself so many times that I’m beginning to feel like a broken record.

    Defensively, if I don’t know if you’re running the ball or passing the ball, as a coordinator I have to be prepared for either one. If I send in a cover 2 thinking you’re going to pass and you run, I’m going to get burned on the run. If I send in a stacked heavy 7 or 8 in the box thinking you’re going to run, I’m going to get burned on a pass. So as the opposing offensive coordinator, what am I going to do? Exactly what Daniels did on that very first drive. I’m going to run run run the ball. Because I have the great Tom Brady in the backfield you’re afraid I’m going to throw and you’re going to run cover 2 and outside blitzes and I’m going to keep pounds the ball up the middle...and once I have you sucked in, I’m going to run that play action for 30 yards and throw you off balance yet again.

    Balanced offensive attacks are ***CRUCIAL*** for successful offenses. If you aren’t balanced, you’ve painted yourself into a corner in which there’s only one way out
     
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  23. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Everything you’re saying can be proven or disproven statistically.
     
  24. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    That works both ways unfortunately for the mods here in this forum.
     
  25. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Would be a decent study.
     
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  26. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    The dual contrasts of Tannehill with the Dolphins and Titans and the Titans with Mariota and Tannehill are very telling.

    Tannehill had shown the ability with the Dolphins to play at a high level in stretches during the 2104, 2015, 2016, and 2018 seasons. I'd say he peaked at being ranked around 10th. Those stretches generally corresponded with better play on the OL. The OL play (IMO) never got above average. It ranged from putrid to just okay. It could never be counted on in the crunch. Whenever I was watching the Dolphins at crunch time, I was expecting a massive OL failure, not a failure by the QB. Now with the Titans, the supporting cast has been very good. Whether the running game is elite all by itself is up for debate. Interestingly, we have a very good way to look at it (see the next paragraph). Tannehill has been elite. Top 5, at least, level of play over 8 games. Seems to me like this is just the natural progression from his play in Miami. As Cam Wake said, "There's no surprise for me.". Will he average a 114 passer rating going forward? Probably not, but, I can see him record a passer rating above 100 on a regular basis. That is good enough.

    Now take the contrast of the Titans with Mariota and Tannehill this season. All the implications by some that it is not really Tannehill. It is the running game and OL. Constant attempts to deflect credit for truly elite play. The change was immediate. Swap out the QBs and the Titans offense goes from bottom of the league to top of the league. Not sure how you can credit the difference to anyone but Tannehill.

    upload_2019-12-22_8-45-0.png

    upload_2019-12-22_8-52-27.png

    He has shown the ability to take a below average supporting cast and make it good and then take a very good supporting cast and make it elite. Why are we still debating this?
     
  27. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    But what's he doing on the defensive side of the ball...huh...HUH?!?!?!
     
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  28. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    In my opinion for a couple reasons. One, there are differences of opinion about the quality of the surroundings, both in Miami and in Tennessee. Two, there seems to be a difference of opinion about the question of relevance regarding his performance.

    The best QBs in the league vary from year to year at a level significantly higher than that of the lesser QBs. Take for example the hypothetical season passer ratings of the following two groups of QBs, both of whom (hypothetically) have exactly the same surroundings, which are of average quality:

    Group A
    105
    98
    103
    100

    Group B
    89
    91
    85
    88

    Now take the same two groups of QBs and change their surroundings, giving all of them the best ones in the league:

    Group A
    115
    108
    103
    110

    Group B
    99
    101
    95
    98

    So as you can see there, when both groups had average surroundings, group A performed significantly better than group B. When we changed their surroundings and gave all of them the best surroundings in the league, group A still performed significantly better than group B. Better surroundings didn't magically make group B equivalent to group A, because group A has better ability than group B.

    This is what happens in reality in the NFL. If you give Tom Brady Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, and Wes Welker, for example, it vaults his performance into the stratosphere. If you were to give Teddy Bridgewater that same receiving corps, it wouldn't boost his performance anywhere near as much.

    Again the question for me (and I respect that it may be different for others) is whether Tannehill is part of group A or group B. And that can be known only with more data, because the level at which variation in performance occurs from year to year (not over eight or ten games in the same year) determines that.

    Andy Dalton for example performed at a level nearly 20 passer rating points higher (106.2) than his career level (87.4) in 2015 and has never repeated that. No one is calling him an elite QB because of that one season, because his performance varied upward to that degree for only that season, and has been otherwise roughly average.

    Tannehill's performance next season for example will be very telling.
     
  29. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    There shouldn't be.


    Andy Dalton had the same excellent supporting cast and a stable coaching staff for YEARS. He was surrounded by a quality team for almost his entire career in Cincy. That is the difference. Even then, his best season was not as good as Tannehill has played this year, on a NEW team. Dalton's first year with a team like Tannehill's in Miami results in an 1-10 record and a passer rating of 75.2.

    I cannot make it any clearer for you.
     
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  30. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    So what’s our rooting interest today? Both for tannehill and for us? Lol
     
  31. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    That's easy --- WINS!
     
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  32. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    Yeah sorry boss. I’m playing for a pick at this point. Especially when I’m still looking for a qb.

    I see the difference in pick 3 and pick 5 as being a large one when it comes to draft assets for a qb.
     
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  33. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    No derrick Henry? Dion Lewis doesn’t cut the mustard.

    they need another between the tackles piece at rb. Where is the depth?
     
  34. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Well hell, Miami should just forfeit the game then and not even show up. Why “play” if you’re not even going to try and win?

    :pity:
     
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  35. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Root for us to lose out and Cinci to win out (they play the Browns to end the season so it's possible). That's the most important part.

    Giants and Redskins are playing in the "Chase Young bowl" today if you listen to their fans. Neither team seems likely to take a QB so it really doesn't matter which wins, though Giants are ahead of us in SoS so you can root for them if you want. However, Washington might end up beating us in SoS since we play NE so I don't think we have a preference there.

    Otherwise, root for the Lions to beat the Broncos. I think texanphinatic said it's unlikely they'll pick a QB but better to be safe.

    As far as our QB chances, a lot depends on Tua making a full recovery. If he does recover, we don't need to pick #1 and #4 will do. Otherwise, we need to pick ahead of Cinci, and as stated the only way that's happening is if we lose out and they win out.
     
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  36. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    If tuas cleared you think he comes to you at 4 brad?

    I think that’s real risky. Real real risky you get trumped
     
  37. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Either Tua or Burrows will be there at #4 IMO assuming the Giants and Redskins are the other teams in the mix. Don't forget that the top 3-4 spots require tremendous amounts of draft capital to move up to. And we have the draft capital to outbid anyone.

    So personally I don't think that's risky.
     
  38. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    Fair enough but I think assuming we finish behind them that any of those teams lions included are prime candidates to move out for someone coming up for a qb.

    although I do think they’d all prefer to stay top 5 where they can get young or thomas in a trade out. So that helps us.
     
  39. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    If that's true, then it begs the question of how he was able to achieve a season with a very high passer rating, 20 points higher than his career number. What was going on for him that year, and why hasn't it been replicated?
     

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