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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    I just think it’s sticks driven heavy pa based which I could have told ya in Miami Ryan could run at a really high clip.

    helps also that that kid aj brown is a man. He’s seriously put together and can run thru contact.
     
  2. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    He signed to be and entered the season as a backup QB. He is certainly playing at a starters level, but I digress.

    R Wilson and Tannehill's resumes are not the same.
     
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  3. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Try to think outside your normal way of thinking. Think about how Tannehill is playing right now, and why, and now imagine what Tannehill’s resume could look like if he had had a good coach and decent team from day one? I think it’s obvious at this point that had Tannehill had the benefit of being drafted by literally anyone else, his resume would look much different.
     
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  4. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Neither are their team histories or coaching staffs.
     
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  5. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. Tannehill fakes well, gets his head around quickly and locates his target quickly. He also has a quick release.
     
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  6. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    I like the fact that he really wants to be a stud of a QB by staying in the pocket until he damn near has to take a sack or throw the ball, but.... wasnt he a WR? I think the Titans should game plan a much better plan on trying to get him in the outside. He can be deadly with his legs as well...
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 24, 2019
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  7. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Tannehill has the highest QB Rating;
    Brees 2nd
    Jackson 3rd
    Wilson 5th
    Mahomes 6th
    The highest average yard per pass
    Mahomes 4th
    Wilson 7th
    Brees 11th
    Jackson 12th
    The third highest completion percentage behind Derek Carr and Drew Brees...followed by:
    Wilson 9th
    Jackson 10th
    Mahomes 11th

    So in a nutshell...Tannehill is completing more of his passes for more yards and scoring more TD's per completion than all of these other "elite" quarterbacks

    So yea, Tannehill is playing better than the elite.
     
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  8. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    But reasons I used during his time in Miami as to why he isn't playing elite
     
  9. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    That is true. It is also true that he likely wouldn't be as good as R.Wilson.
     
  10. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Is he playing in Miami or Tennessee? Where he's playing doesn't matter. The fact that he is playing ELITE does matter
     
  11. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I already illustrated above that he's playing better than Wilson
     
  12. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    The trendy phrase "it is what it is" applies here.

    Wilson has had equally as bad OL's, and bad WR corps. I think he has had as many obstacles but he has the skillset to overcome them.
     
  13. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Kenyon Drake has been playing better than Saquon Barkley. Who would you take and who is the better player?
     
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  14. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    I was being sarcastic. My bad. I should have mentioned that. I agree with you 100%
     
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  15. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Along with an elite defense and elite running game...both of which can keep a team in games by themselves, and provide luxury as far as possession time and opportunity.

    We'll never know.
     
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  16. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Not saying he would.
     
  17. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I never said anyone was. I just said everyone can argue about stats and numbers all they want to support whatever argument they want. I also said if anyone wants to use numbers to say that his play right now isn't good is ridiculous. I never specifically said anyone was, I was responding to another poster who posted his stats from the last two losses which was in response to someone else making a ridiculous statement about the Titans losing the last two down the stretch trying to win their way into the playoffs. Not sure what your issue is with that, other than the fact you're one of the "stats guys".

    I'm just making a general statement to the lengths some go with statistics to try and prove one thing or another as fact. My response to that is that it's not. Tannehill has put up fantastic numbers any team would drool over for a starting QB, and they have two losses to show for it. That just goes to show, numbers really don't tell the whole story, just like the original post made that prompted chuch to show those stats from the last two games just doesn't make any sense to claim "have we seen this story before" in regards to Tannehill being the QB for a team in a losing effort in a playoff push. It's ridiculous IMO.

    Not sure what the issue is here... Some apparently need a fantastic stretch of play and statistics to concluded he's playing well. I'm just not really that surprised, because I think in his time here it was quite obvious he was capable of it if in a good situation... like any player who plays in this league.
     
  18. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Nobody is saying he's isn't playing better right now than he did in Miami, but there's a reason why the team that's first in the league in passer rating, yards per play, and yards per pass attempt is only fifth in the league in total offense and scoring offense. And that reason, primarily, is what plagued Tannehill in Miami as well -- sacks.

    That may not seem like a significant problem, but let's see how that's played out when Tannehill and the Titans have faced stiff competition.

    To date Tannehill has played against three quarterbacks of the kind he's likely to face in the playoffs and beyond this season -- Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, and Drew Brees.

    In the first of those games, against KC, Tannehill's passer rating was 133.9, his YPA was 9.5, and he killed four drives with sacks. The team had 225 rushing yards (Derrick Henry had 188), and the Titans won by three points. Granted Tannehill contributed mightily to the win with two completed passes at the end of the game, one of which was for a touchdown, but the final score was inconsistent with the passer rating differential of nearly 15 points, and that was because of sacks.

    In the second of those games, against Houston, Tannehill's passer rating was 92.2, and his YPA was 7.75. Those figures are roughly average, which gives a team about a 50% win probability from the quarterback position. The Titans lost the game 24-21. Sacks didn't contribute to the loss, but neither did Tannehill's performance contribute to a win.

    In the third of those games, against New Orleans, Tannehill's passer rating was 133.6, his YPA was 10.1, and he again killed four drives with sacks. This time there was no Derrick Henry, and the team rushed for almost 80 fewer yards than it did in the KC game. The Titans lost by 10 points, despite again being on the winning end of a passer rating differential of roughly 15 points.

    So, what's happening here is that when Tannehill faces the league's best QBs and he finds himself in a quarterback duel, the kind any quarterback is likely to experience in the playoffs, he has the ability to play well in terms of arm talent (completion percentage, YPA, passer rating), but not in terms of the entirety of the quarterback position (sensing and evading pressure, avoiding sacks, and extending drives). This puts the Titans at a disadvantage against those quality teams with quality quarterbacks, unless the Titans can overcome that with a massive ground attack.

    Keep an eye on how the above dynamics play out next week and in the playoffs.
     
  19. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Well let’s see...

    Drake is playing in the NFC West, against the San Francisco 49ers, the LA Rams and the Seattle Seahawks.

    Barkley is playing against the Cowboys, the Eagles and the Redskins.

    Drake’s playing against better teams and putting up better numbers.
     
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  20. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Only? ONLY 5th in a league of 32 teams? C’mon, you’re really reaching in your anti-Tannehill argument.

    You do realize that Tannehill and the offensive unit doesn’t play defense, right? The teams the Titans have played have scored their points against the Titans defense, not against Tannehill.
     
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  21. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The point is that the team with the highest passer rating, the highest YPA, and the largest number of yards per play should also be first in the league in total offense and scoring offense. Otherwise, when that team plays against the teams that are first through fourth in the league in those categories -- as it's likely to in the playoffs -- it's at a disadvantage.

    And as I pointed out above, that's primarily due to sacks, which have been a problem for Tannehill since 2012, across numerous head coaches, offensive coordinators, offensive systems, surrounding skilled position players, and offensive line personnel configurations.
     
  22. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    This thread has literally become worthless. Just saying.
     
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  23. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Okay. Sure.
     
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  24. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Why?

    You've pointed out it is primarily due to sacks???? LOL. You know nothing about football at all.
     
  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The point is that his performance with regard to those categories isn't resulting in the dominance in the league it normally would for his team, because of Tannehill's career-long problem with sensing and evading pressure.

    It's easy to view this issue with levity because you're a Dolphins fan, but if you were a Titans fan and your team lost a playoff game due to this issue, it'd probably feel different. Tannehill's passer rating and YPA wouldn't mean as much. You'd want him to start sensing and evading pressure to give your team a better shot at beating the Drew Breeses of the world.
     
  26. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Did you ever even consider that sacks are not included in passer rating because it's a team stat more than just a QB stat?

    In the KC game, arguably the best out of the three teams, the Titans won. So there's no argument to be made there that sacks cripple Tannehill.

    In the Houston game, a receiver fumbling a TD pass (that went down as an INT) sealed that game. Without that fumble/INT, Tannehill has an extra TD on the day, no picks and he's right back around his impressive 130 mark with another win.

    In the Saints game, Tennessee was without their workhorse RB and still remained competitive. Also, Brees was sacked 3 times so I think it's a tough sell to claim that one additional sack on RT led to a 10-point differential in scoring. If that's how it works, then we need to focus solely on D-linemen and ends in this draft...then run the Wildcat on offense 100% of the time.

    After all, avoiding sacks + creating sacks = guaranteed win, right?
     
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2019
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  27. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Tannehill didn't start the season Guy. He didn't start until week 7. With Mariotta under center, the Titans averaged only 16.33 points per game. How does a complete comparison pan out?

    With Tannehill under center, the Titans have averaged 29.88 points per game.

    The Patriots under Brady have averaged 26.4 points per game
    The Bills under Allen have averaged 20.53 points per game
    The Texans under Watson have have averaged 24.26 points per game
    The Chiefs under Mahomes have averaged 28 points per game
    The Packers under Rodgers have averaged 22 points per game
    The Vikings under Cousins have averaged 25.2 points per game
    The Saints under Brees have averaged 27.73 points per game
    The Seahawks under Wilson have averaged 25.6 points per game

    Only 2 teams have outscored the Titans under Tannehill

    The 49ers under Garrappolo have averaged 30.2 points per game
    The Ravens under Jackson have averaged 33.53 points per game

    If you extrapolate the number of touchdowns he's thrown with what he could have thrown had he played the entire season, his touchdown total goes from 20 to 33, behind only Lamar Jackson and Jameis Winston and ahead of all of the "elites"

    Tannehill hasn't left points on the field. He's put them up on the board. He's leading in every relevant category and doing EVERYTHING a head coach and offense could want a quarterback to do and yet..."yea, but Tannehill still isn't elite...he sucks"
     
  28. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The argument isn't that sacks are crippling Tannehill's performance. It's that they're deflating the typical relationship between passer rating/YPA and scoring/winning. The Titans are getting extremely good play from Tannehill with regard to passer rating and YPA, but that isn't translating to the offensive dominance it normally would, again because of drive-killing sacks. The Titans' opportunities to score are being diminished.

    In the Saints game, Brees had two drive-killing sacks, and Tannehill had four. Both teams had 13 possessions.
     
  29. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    You're pretty much arguing with yourself now...and these were two sentences apart. Sacks aren't crippling Tannehill, he's playing great and all, but those sacks cripple the offense from being dominant. So now I think you're saying the sacks are everyone's fault but Tannehill's?

    I called this out because you're literally talking in circles to keep arguments going here. There's simply no reason for it to continue. I think about half the posters here have you on ignore and pretty soon, you'll solely be arguing with yourself. It might be a good time to stop finding new angles for hating on RT and just let the rest of the season play out.

    I couldn't take it anymore so I blocked you as well. No reason to reply since I won't see it.
     
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  30. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I think the reason is simpler: they didn't record sacks until 1982 and the passer rating formula was created in the early 1970's based on data from 1960-1970. Whether they would have included it had they invented the formula in the 80's I don't know because you can easily improve on passer rating by modifying the weights they place on the different components (COMP%, Y/A, TD%, INT%) so that it best predicts the data, and they obviously didn't even do that. So who knows, but one way to improve on passer rating is to include sacks.

    There are various ways of doing that, such as using NY/A = (passing yards - sack yards)/(passing attempts + sack attempts) instead of Y/A, but that requires re-calculating the weights on the different components of the (new) passer rating, and since they don't seem to have optimized that part anyway, let's do this a different way: add an extra term to passer rating.

    It turns out that you maximize correlation to win% by adding -0.5*(sacks allowed) to passer rating:

    passer rating - 0.5*(sacks allowed)

    Traditional passer rating has a correlation to win% across NFL history of 0.6330 while that formula increases that correlation to 0.6833. What's interesting is that it's the number of sacks that matter more than sack% IF you add it as an extra term to passer rating. The highest correlation you'll get with sack% added or subtracted to traditional passer rating is 0.6527 using the weight: PR - 1.5*sack%.

    So if you guys want you can use PR - 0.5*sacks as a slightly better measure of how QB-related events impact the game (i.e., each sack is worth about 1/2 a passer rating point if you combine it with passer rating this way).
     
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  31. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    He can argue in circles all he wants...its his M.O., and the reason he's been banned several times from this site. The league and its affiliates are taking notice, that's enough for me.

    Per PFF:

    "PFF's NFL Team of the Week series features game grades and advanced statistics for the NFL's top players at every position in a given week. All of PFF's ELITE subscribers have access to game grades, advanced statistics, positional snap counts and more in Premium Stats. All of PFF's grades and advanced stats from this week and every other week this upcoming NFL season are made available to ELITE subscribers within 24 hours of the final whistle.

    QB Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
    Despite the loss to the New Orleans Saints, Tannehill continued his tremendous season throwing the football, as he finished with three big-time throws and no turnover-worthy plays. He was pinpoint on a deep ball to wideout A.J. Brown, and his tight-window red-zone touchdown kept the Titans in the game in the fourth quarter. Tannehill’s downfield accuracy was excellent once again, and he finished 7-for-10 for 151 yards and two touchdowns on throws of 10-plus yards downfield."

    Yep...all his fault they lost. "QBs get credit for the wins and losses"...one of the dumbest phrases in sports.

    They pick ONE player at each position each week for this feature. I'm not saying PFF is 100% perfect, but they're better than this dude.
     
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2019
  32. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Exactly. Thats a dumb argument.

    Tennessee was without their top two corners, Butler and Adoore. Their secondary is banged up.
     
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  33. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Offensive dominace? What the hell are you talking about? Tennessee is averaging 30 ppg with Tammy under center, while their only averaging 16ppg with Mariota under center.

    What is offense dominace to you? 40 ppg? Smh. Lol
     
  34. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Who?
     
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  35. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I've addressed this in several posts already. The point is that in terms of point production and wins and losses, the team isn't performing at the level expected of a team with its passer rating differential. The reason for that is its very high frequency of sacks.

    You sound like a reasonable person. Certainly you don't think that having the second-highest sack percentage in the league at 10.4% is harmless, when a single sack kills an offensive drive and results in zero points on that drive 84% of the time? When those sacks occur, they aren't reflected in Ryan Tannehill's passing statistics, yet they do significant damage to your team's ability to score and win.

    Excluding the Denver game, the Titans' record during Tannehill's historic level of play is an unexpectedly modest 6-3, despite that its pass defense plays at an average level. That doesn't compute, and it doesn't compute because sacks destroy the equation.

    This is a thread primarily about Ryan Tannehill's performance and improvement. His overall level of play is most definitely better than it was with the Dolphins. However, there is an area of his game that is no different (sensing and evading pressure), and in terms of scoring and wins and losses, it's keeping your team from reaping the benefit it could from the other parts of his performance. That could spell trouble when you face the better teams in the league, as it has already.
     
  36. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    For a "stats guy", you sure do make a lot of unsubstantiated claims.....


    And you don't think that the level of competition has anything to do with it?

    This is another unsubstantiated claim.

    It must have been an incredible "ah ha!" moment for you. After weeks of searching, you could finally blame Tannehill for something...... if you were any more transparent, you'd be invisible.

    And you've continued to demonstrate your extremely poor understanding of statistics.
     
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  37. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    He is the most passive aggressive poster ever. All the feigning of impartiality. Just looking at the stats..... LOL. He has spent the last 9 weeks trying to figure out how to deny giving credit to Tannehill for his resurgence. Now he has latched on to something that he thinks he can blame Tannehill for......
     
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  38. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    And I disagree with your opinion of what he is doing. That okay with you?

    To put a finer point on it, he is a fraud. He understands very little about stats, is almost completely devoid of logic, and knows even less about football. On top of all that, he lies about his motives.
     
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2019
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  39. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I already debunked this. Only the 49ers and the Ravens have a higher per point per game average than the Titans. If you are trying to convince someone that having the 3rd highest point production per game isn't performing...or shows a lack of production, you're as nutty as a fruitcake.

    I commend you for sticking to your guns and refusing to let go, but you've hitched your wagon on a losing argument. You've gone all in and its too late for you to fold. You've been called and you've lost to a better hand.
     
  40. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The argument isn't that the Titans' number of points scored is low or that their record is bad.

    There is the expected number of points scored and win percentage associated with Tannehill's passing statistics, and there is the actual number of points scored and win percentage. The actual doesn't match the expected for Tannehill and the Titans, and that's because of sacks.

    A hypothetical example may help make the point more understandable. Imagine that a quarterback posted a perfect passer rating in every game in a season, and his team's pass defense played at an average level. That team would be expected to lead the league in points scored by a fairly wide margin and have virtually a perfect record.

    What would you think if instead that team was merely fifth in the league in points scored and had a record of 11-5? Something would have to explain that difference between what was expected and what actually occurred. In the case of the Titans this year, that explanation is sacks.

    Again, this isn't likely to register as a problem for the team until they play against the stiffest competition in the league. Against New Orleans and Drew Brees last weekend for example, the four drive-killing sacks interfered with the scoring opportunities the team needed to beat a quarterback and a team of that caliber.

    A 10-point loss certainly is nowhere near expected from Tannehill's passer rating of 133.6, his YPA over 10, and a passer rating differential of roughly 15 points, but of course drive-killing sacks aren't reflected in passer rating, YPA, and passer rating differential.
     
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