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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    What. A. Throw.

    Who honestly can make this throw in the NFL right now??????
     
  2. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    If this happened with Miami, there would be a HUGE contingent of Dolphin fans saying that was a bad pass or a fluke.

    Sad watching such a good quarterback doing well for another team. Fans just run people out of town.

    Go Titans!
     
    Hiruma78, adamprez2003, Fin D and 4 others like this.
  3. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Only idiots would say thats a bad pass. He dropped it in the basket. That pass was only AJ to catch or no one else.
     
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  4. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    60 yards in the air...insane.
     
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  5. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    But you have to realize...he was probably more hated here, than Mariota is in Tennessee.
     
  6. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    For some strange reason. I truly believe it's just people didn't like picking a raw QB with that pick, and just continue to blame him for everything wrong with the team for 7 years, unreasonable as that was.
     
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  7. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Thats sad because unlike Tanne, Marcus has never had good stats, even his average year wasnt so average.
     
  8. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    I really want to punch that guy in the face. I really don't know why. I just do.
     
  9. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    Mariotta. Oregon QB. Don't draft Oregon Qb's. I keep saying it over and over. There is never ever more overrated college Qb's than Oregon Qb's. They always fail.
     
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  10. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    But wait. I thought he couldn't throw a deep ball?

    I'm so confused.
     
  11. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    What the Titans need to do to beat the Pats is pretty much the same script. Defensively what we have seen to great success is bracketing Edelman. Double team him. One thing I saw yesterday the other Patriot receivers don't catch very well. Yes Edelman is dinged up but double him up anyway. Stop the Pats running game. Contain Michel and force Brady to throw. Frankly father time has caught up to him he is one of the three worst QB's in the league over the last month. He is dinged up, I've never seen so many errant throws from him as yesterday. And as always pressure him. That has always been the biggest thing when playing him in his prime and what you have to continue to do now.

    Offensively just keep doing what the Titans have been doing. Put Gilmore on the youngster AJ, thats ok. Tannehill just needs to throw him jump balls like Fitzpatrick did yesterday. It seems Gilmore has a hole in his game against tall receivers. Run Henry and wear out the defense by the end of the game they will have nothing left in the tank to stop him. Henry is a load. Roll Tannehill out in the pocket and let him use his ability to throw on the run. It will negate the Patriots pass rush.

    Overall, dont make the same mistake we have seen teams do over and over and over. Keep the pedal down all game long. Do not let up because I can assure you the Patriots never will in this game. Ask Atlanta how that worked out for them.
     
    PhinFan1968 likes this.
  12. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Great recipe.

    The thing is, they have other targets who are almost as capable as AJ Brown at making big plays. When the Titans smoked the Patriots last year 34-10, their other WR (Davis?) beat Gilmore like a drum...and he's still on the team. If the Titans can hold Michel to 31 yards again, they're in business...big time.

    Of course that game was in Tennessee...Patriots didn't have access to all their usual "tech."
     
    Tin Indian likes this.
  13. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member



    Is that what a balanced attack looks like? On a good overall team?
     
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  14. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I mean, if your nine game average is almost seven yards per play, does your team even need a punter anymore? Those are insane statistics for Belichek to try and figure out in a week!
     
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  15. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Brady is adamant right now that he has no injury. Anyone believe him?
     
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  16. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Not for a second.

    Tennessee should avoid hitting it though...their backup may play better.
     
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  17. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    Oh yeah, I know they have other targets. It's just after yesterday and watching Gilmore get beat like a drum by Parker I think I want Brown going after him. Not that the offense will really have much choice in it but I do hope the Pats go that way.
     
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  18. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    The Mike Wallace effect.

    Wallace would've dropped it. Got up shaking his head and pointing somewhere like the ball needed to be 5" this way or that way, then Blomar would've tweeted about it being a terrible pass.
     
  19. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Flores and Graham learned from Bill. Take away the opponents best asset and make them beat you with what's left.

    Brady has been a below average QB this season and his accuracy and placement were bad all game, but Edelmann is the straw that stirs that drink. He was held to three catches. Michel was also held to the lowest totals since the KC game. Flores and Graham forced Brady to try and beat them throwing even though Miami has no pass rush. Still, if not for the Pick-6, we likely lose that game as the offense kept sputtering out.

    Titans are going to have to play much better than Miami did and the Pats are going to be angry and focused. Tannehill doesn't have Fitz's elusiveness, nor pocket presence and that Right Tackle is a liability.

    Going to be an interesting game. Will be rooting for the Titans.
     
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  20. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    What also makes it hard to believe, is the fact his OL protected him much better in the 2nd half of the season, yet you can see a difference in his play, starkly toward the negative, in that time. Per analytics:

    "In the first half of the season, the Patriots ranked 25th in pass block win rate (PBWR). In the second half, they ranked 8th. PBWR = how often a team sustains all of its pass blocks for at least 2.5s."

    Then again...he primarily feasted on scrub teams early on for most of his few 100+ rating games (MIA 124.7, NYJ 103.9, WAS 106.1). They had the 4th easiest strength of schedule in the NFL, behind Buffalo, Philadelphia and Green Bay.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2019
  21. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Tammy doesnt have to throw "jump balls" to A.J -- no need to force it, he has alot of other options like the new emerging TE Jonnu Smith, or a solid recievers like Sharpe and Davis. We all know the genius Belichek will stop their best player, he is either going to be shadowing A.J. all game or go after Tennessee's running game Henry.
     
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  22. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Well I have to admit I was wrong about Tanny.

    I thought he could be a top 10 QB with a solid OL and good run threat.

    I honestly didn’t think he could lead the league, even if you gave him perfect surroundings.
    I thought he needed a decent to good OL to produce, not the bunch of scrubs that Tennessee has.
    I thought his leadership was questionable and that it would be dangerous to rely on him in a tight playoff race.

    He has well exceeded what I thought he was capable of.

    The only real question is whether he can sustain thus level of performance, but his game to game rating appears much less variable in Tennessee than on Miami. I’ve previously run some numbers and thought poor playcalling (specifically abandoning the run when behind) in Miami was a partial cause of low ratings in losses.
     
  23. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    If the Patriots do win the SB this year it will be their greatest win. The offense is a joke and Brady has struggled all season. Defense isn't great, but has been holding together the entire team.
     
  24. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    People might claim this as a knock against Tannehill, but I think they need to give him help early with heavy runs. It is his first actual playoff game, and he might need to settle down before they air it out. Give him a couple designed runs, let him take a few hits, it always does wonders for calming people down.

    ....or he might just have ice water in his veins, nobody really knows yet. All I know is I'm hoping the Tannehill train has a few more stops on it, cause this has been almost as fun as having the Dolphins make the playoffs.... ALMOST :)
     
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  25. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    I appreciate the Mea Culpa. Always hard for a person to admit when they are wrong.

    Props.
     
  26. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    The beginning of the season the media was all gaga over the Pats D and all. Anyone with a brain knew they played no one. That they are still so highly rated defensively is they are still riding those padded stats from the beginning of the year. I'd love to see a comparison of numbers from the 1st 8 to the last 8. I would bet they are nowhere near the same.

    On another note, I woke up thinking this morning of how awesome it would be to send Brady into retirement on a 62-7 loss.
     
  27. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    No, but my point is that Gilmore looks very vulnerable to balls that are thrown high to taller receivers. Make no mistake Gilmore is about as good as it gets and if you attack him in a conventional manner he will get his.
     
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  28. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Titans last two games have been playoff type games. He was under pressure, sacked, and knocked down a number of times against the Saints and played without Henry in the game. They lost, but it that was on the defense and OL. It was probably his biggest test of the season for him.

    Houston was also a playoff type game, and he played well, but that defense struggled against the backup QB and with several other Texan starters on the bench.

    I think he'll be the same guy he's been since taking over. It's the rest of the team, apart from Henry, you have to wonder about.
     
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  29. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yup, I personally do. He's just old and incompetent...schemes can't cover that up anymore.
     
  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Aside from the emotional aspect of that, it would be good to do that with Tannehill regardless, because, excluding the Denver game this year that he did not start, there is a -0.88 correlation between his passer rating and his number of pass attempts in 2019. In other words, there is an extremely strong, inverse relationship between his passer rating and his number of pass attempts; as his number of pass attempts goes up, his passer rating goes down.

    There is a staggering difference in that regard between Tannehill and the league as a whole, for which the game-by-game correlation in 2019 appears to be about -0.03, indicating virtually no relationship at all between those two variables. So for the league as a whole, increasing or decreasing pass attempts has virtually no effect on passer rating.

    Also, the average number of pass attempts per game throughout the league in 2019 was just under 35, whereas Tannehill’s number of passes thrown per game in 2019 (again excluding the Denver game) was 27. That was the lowest in the league.

    So you can see here why, aside from other more common reasons, there is a question about the sustainability of his recent performance beyond this season.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2019
  31. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    That was the dumbest argument of all time. I by no means was a Tannehill homer but the deep ball controversy was 99.99 percent Mike Wallace and media tools like Omar Kelly and Orlando Alzuegary.

    One thing Tannehill has always had was incredible accuracy and an amazing arm.
     
  32. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah it's good Pauly said that because there's not a poster here that came remotely close to predicting what's happening right now. Some said he would win the starting job in Tennessee and possibly do well, but no one predicted what we're seeing now.

    In any case, I was looking through QB's that ended #1 or #2 in passer rating and unless I'm missing something there is only one other case in NFL history that's comparable to what's going on now, where a QB was #1 in passer rating the first year he was with a new coach after having at least 6 seasons of approximately average statistical production: Tommy Kramer beat out Marino for that #1 spot in 1986 with rookie coach Jerry Burns (on the same team however):
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1986/passing.htm
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KramTo00.htm

    Kramer wouldn't sustain that level of production in the years that followed even with Burns as coach, actually doing worse in those years than his pre-Burns years. So if Tannehill can produce at a "top 10" level for even a 2nd year, then as far as I can tell this particular sequence of events will be unprecedented. Other QB's like Gannon and Smith that started off mediocre but ended up with a year or two of being either #1 or #2 in passer rating didn't do so their first year with a new coach/team and instead took several years to get there.
     
  33. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Seriously?

    There's a few of us on here who have argued for years that Tannehill had elite potential, he just needed some players and a good coach. We've been ridiculed and maligned for years for that stance. We've been told we drove posters away.

    Stop with the revisionist stuff please.
     
  34. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I gotta admit, I had a high standard set for him once they traded him, but not THIS high. I expected him to win the job in camp, post a 100 rating and be top 5, in the process of making the playoffs with the Titans. Told my wife (Titans fan) as such the second he got traded. Took 6 weeks for the Titans to wake up, but he surpassed it...and I love it. Not in my wildest dreams did I think he'd finish #1 in several key categories.

    And what's that they say about great QBs making those around them better?

    AJ Brown is PFF's Offensive Rookie of the Year

    Benefiting from Tannehill at quarterback
    Brown was good but not great at the start of the season with Marcus Mariota at quarterback for the Titans, grabbing just 14 receptions over the first six games. He ranked 64th in overall grade during the first six weeks, and though he did flash with Mariota at the helm, once Tannehill took over, it was a different story. In fact, since Week 7 — when Tannehill became the full-time starter in Tennessee — Brown is the third highest-graded receiver in all of football, trailing only Julio Jones and Michael Thomas and seeing a ridiculous set of numbers in the process.

    PFF's top-graded receivers since Week 7
    Receiver Grade TGT REC YDs TD Y/REC YAC/REC MT YPRR
    Julio Jones 90.8 98 65 927 2 14.3 3.6 7 2.91
    Michael Thomas 90.1 114 96 1,093 6 11.4 4.0 7 2.73
    A.J. Brown 90.0 61 38 778 6 20.5 9.0 12 2.98
    DeAndre Hopkins 87.8 90 64 763 5 11.9 3.8 7 2.18
    Mike Evans 85.7 62 40 693 4 17.3 4.4 2 2.65

    Brown firmly planted himself not just among rookie receivers but among the best at the position in the league, as he dominated with the ball in his hands. He saw the fewest amount of targeted passes to reach the 1,000-yard plateau, clearly benefiting from his 10 games with Tannehill at the helm as he secured the fifth-most yards since Week 7. In fact, 25 receivers gained over 1,000 receiving yards this year, and Brown needed only 84 targeted passes to do such a thing. All but Stefon Diggs, Mike Williams and Brown needed at least 100 targets to gain 1,000 or more yards.

    https://www.pff.com/news/tennessee-titans-a-j-brown-selected-as-pffs-offensive-rookie-of-the-year
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2019
  35. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    First thing I'd note is that you probably don't want to exclude the Denver game for this analysis because Tannehill had 16 passing attempts in that game and his passer rating isn't being mixed with Mariota's. When you include the Denver game you get a correlation of -0.4525 which, as you point out, is way larger in magnitude than league average. However.. doing a hypothesis test on the correlation (which takes sample size into account) the p-value is 0.1622 and is not statistically significant. Not sure if you have software that does a hypothesis test with the correlation, but that's really important to do with small sample size.

    Second thing I'd note is that the p-value probably shouldn't be compared to the traditional 0.05 threshold because it's not clear why you'd look at passer rating vs. attempts rather than any other pair such as passer rating vs. rushing Y/A or passer rating vs. points allowed. The reason that's important is because the more possible comparisons you can make, the smaller that p-value threshold becomes for statistical significance. Specifically, the threshold goes down to 0.05/N if you use something called the Bonferroni correction meaning that you need a much smaller p-value for statistical significance. What precisely that N is or should be depends on the theory you are testing, and I suspect it will be hard for you to find a theory that ONLY a priori looks at passer rating vs. passing attempts.

    In any case, even with the 0.05 threshold that stat isn't significant.
     
  36. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    We certainly did...and those arguments often got heated and ended up with bans/suspensions. I stopped visiting the mains and only browsed/posted in Club for a few years because of a few particular trolls...haven't seen anything from them lately.
     
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  37. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    #1 in passer rating? Show me the post.
     
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  38. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    Now you’re going to nuance the **** out his post, right?
     
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  39. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I hope not. I don't remember ANYONE predicting what we're seeing now in Tennessee.
     
  40. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Sorry about the numbers soup there...it was lined up before I posted it. Here (look at how disgusting his YAC and YPC are...)

    [​IMG]
     
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