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No QB in 2020? Grier Presser

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Dec 30, 2019.

  1. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  2. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Grier will be out of a job if he doesn't get us a franchise QB, so all this talk about maybe not getting a QB this year is most likely smokescreen and isn't really believable anyway. What's he going to do? Bank on getting the guy in 2021? Can't trade up for Lawrence (no QB starved team is trading the #1 spot away for a great prospect like that) and we won't be bad enough to get him without a trade anyway. Better to gamble this year and give yourself an extra year to evaluate.

    I mean.. just look at the playoff teams and who their QB's are. Of the top 8 rated passers this year 7 are in the playoffs (Stafford is the lone exception) and 10 of the top 13 are in the playoffs. The only "not so good" QB's to make the postseason this year are Brady and Allen, and Brady is an all-time great that just happened to have his worst statistical season ever.
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing.htm

    So as far as I'm concerned, we're drafting a QB this year. And if not.. HUGE gamble Grier is taking with his job.
     
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  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, it's funny hearing the owner scream "Get Us a Franchise QB!" while Grier says there's no need for one right away. While I do agree that we're fine with Fitzpatrick for another season and he's quickly becoming one of my favorite Dolphins QB's ever, I don't want to tank for Lawrence in 2020 and root for us being even worse than this season....because that means we bombed in the draft, nobody develops and this is ultimately a five-year rebuilding plan with no true end in sight.

    The only exception I see to that is Rosen...could they think he's still possibly the guy? That's been our best-case scenario all along and the route I'd love to see come to fruition. Or maybe they're just letting Fitzpatrick enjoy the wins a few more months until they reveal the true goals for 2020. The man definitely deserves that!
     
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  4. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    If they want butts in the seats, they'll draft a big-name QB.
     
  5. Not So Fast

    Not So Fast Well-Known Member

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    I am taking it as a smokescreen. You don't want to show your hand this early with regard to the draft/draft strategy.
     
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  6. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Theres only one big name qb and hes going to Cincinnati..

    The rest is Herbert, Love, Hurts, and if you really want to reach with a late first round pick then theres Tua.
     
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  7. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    No no no! We need to draft a quarterback this year. SOMEONE...A prospect needs to be drafted at that position. I'm fine if that prospect sits behind Fitzpatrick or whatever. I am firm on Josh Rosen NOT being the guy. Like...At all unless he's just a late late bloomer, but a lot of his flaws for a quarterback are incurable. Maybe i'm wrong? Wont be the first time. Still, I see no harm with taking a quarterback with one of our first round picks.
     
  8. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    The Washington QB is coming out. I think he could be a very good pro QB.
     
  9. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Im fine if we dont take a first round quarterback this season.. if theres a possible way to trade a first round pick for a 2021 first rounder, im good with that.. i rather have all the resources we need in 2021 to trade up for Trevor Lawrence..
     
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  10. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    That sounds good ... except nobody will trade that pick. If you want Lawrence, you need to be the worst team in 2020, and that is that. Trading for Lawrence would likely take a record setting amount of capital to pull off, and then more on top. You'd bankrupt your team talent-wise.

    Also, the only way Tua goes late first round is if the medicals aren't coming back good and he is behind or struggling with rehab. Otherwise, it is likely he goes top 5.
     
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  11. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    If Tua's healthy we have to take him. I was worried we'd win too many games this year to get a top rated QB, but it actually worked out quite well for us with the teams in front of us unlikely to take a QB (except Cinci). And while no one can predict which college QB's will succeed in the NFL, you'd rather take a highly rated QB and Tua is precisely that (when healthy).

    Of course the injury risk is real, but you don't sacrifice quality at the QB position just because a guy might be more injury prone. I mean what's the use of having an average QB?? Most playoff teams have above average QB play, and the SB winner tends to have well above average QB play (not always of course). So you swing for the fences, and if you miss you try again until you finally find your franchise QB.

    So whatever Grier says, I'm going to be real pissed if we pass on Tua and pick someone else at #5 because there are a bunch of other GM's that are likely to pick him before we pick again at #18.
     
  12. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Cool some other team can draft that bust, ill gladly trade down one spot and let the chargers have him
     
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  13. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Everyone gets enamored with names this time of year, and disregard everything else.

    It's a silly way to draft, imo.
     
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  14. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Frankly, I'm ok with no QB.

    Miami is still very far from being able to compete with a physical team like Baltimore. Focus on the trenches this draft. Go heavy OL. Solidify the DL. Pick up an edge rusher... or two. Grab a safety.

    Miami does not need to go all in on the skill positions. I prefer Miami trading down and amassing more pics than trading up. Give Flores a roster full of high draft picks.
     
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2019
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  15. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    I know we all get our personal attachments and everything, but your opinion is shared by an extreme minority. That's not to say you won't ultimately be wrong, but Tua is a legit high level prospect.
     
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  16. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    At the start of the year, I would have said Lawrence > Tua > Burrow. Now I'd say Burrow = Lawrence, both > Tua. They're two completely different quarterbacks but if I could take any of the three today, I think it would be Burrow by the smallest of margins.

    If we did trade out of our #5 pick, then we'd likely be looking at a later 1st rounder this season and a 1st next year. That's probably the best path to Lawrence and I wouldn't fret if we did the same with the #18 pick as well. However, Tua is no consolation prize if he heals up and looks like he'll make a full recovery. Despite what the "experts" say though, I don't think we'll know that before draft day....it's going to be a complete guess on how far Tua will slide.

    Another factor is actually Chase Young...if he returns to college for another year then that's another top-5 player taken off the board. That means the names we'd expect around #5 may actually go 2-4 instead...which could throw off everyone's draft boards on where top talent will fall. Maybe that creates a panic and someone would overpay for the #5 pick?
     
  17. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    So what. Joey Harrington was a legit high level prospect. So was Jawalrus. So was Ryan Leaf. And on and on. I don't pretend to be a QB guru or anything, I'm just some dude who likes watching football. I'm an Alabama fan, and I've watched most of their games, and honestly, I was never watching games thinking, "Man, Tua is freaking amazing! I wish the Dolphins would pick him!" Given the talent that Alabama always has, it never seems that Tua is putting up dominant numbers.

    Maybe I'm wrong.
     
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  18. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Ive seen the cult following of tua and its mostly by dolphins fans.. literally the same path by Mariota, you guys are blinded by ESPN who works for the SEC.

    Quote me on this, aj mccarron will have a longer career as a backup quarterback than Tua. Tua isnt going to walk in a franchise with 4 first round pick receivers and a first round running back. In the NFL, hes going to be forced to throw in tight windows, not the bubble screens and deep wide open passes to Smith, Waddle, Jeudy and Ruggs.


    Hell Mariota in Oregon had less to work with and produced big numbers just like Tua with his 42 touchdown and 4 INT season in 2014.

    These two players are both the same prospect. Same high school coach, same high school, same lame offense in college football.
     
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  19. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Joe Burrow plays with talented players. So does Lawrence. So does Justin Fields. So does Jalen Hurts. Joe Montana played with Jerry Rice. Great players help make others great as well.

    Nobody says you have to like a guy. But as a "regular guy" myself it helps with perspective to see when a majority are sold on a person and why. Does that mean every prospect works out? Of course not. But it at least generally gives an idea of how a draft may somewhat unfold. People just dismissing Tua because of arbitrary stuff like "he plays with good receivers" and saying he will go in the late first because of it are just projecting personal bias onto it.
     
  20. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Honestly, I think GMs and pundits get enamored with QBs on great teams...they do exactly what some of us have been saying people on this site do. They give far far too much credit for team wins to QBs, and get enamored with names. The pundits start talking up certain players, and it creates buzz. Fans pick up that buzz, and GMs fall into it too.
     
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  21. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Eh perhaps, but it's important to remember that scouts do most of the legwork. Looking at draft history though, at least with QBs, you see a good mix of guys from different schools. Sure you had a Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold from blue chip schools, but you also have Daniel Jones from Duke and Josh Allen from Wyoming in the last few years. I think scouts and GM's can separate individual performance and focus on a player's specific attributes outside of any overall team success. It's why Tua is considered a higher ranked prospect than Jalen Hurts for instance. GM's don't just peruse a box score and call it a day. They will compare the throwing motion, biomechanics, ball placement, results under pressure, mobility, pocket awareness, etc. I'm not going to spend hours and hours breaking down game film like that, but when a majority of both team and independent sources all come to the same conclusion, it's usually not just because "media like them" or "they have a good team".
     
  22. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    With Tua the issue is less about the talent he has (and the talent around him) and more to do with his health. Does the evidence suggest that he'll struggle to stay on the field in the NFL? Or does the evidence tell us he is durable?

    We already know the answer to that though. That doesn't mean Tua can't add some muscle and weight and increase his durability, but some players are just naturally less prone to injury. The best ability is availability.
     
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  23. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Trade up to go get Burrow?

    https://dolphinswire.usatoday.com/2...-have-the-loot-to-make-a-push-for-joe-burrow/

    "The Miami Dolphins have been locked into the 5th overall pick and the 18th overall pick in the 1st-round of the upcoming 2020 NFL draft. At 5, there’s little hope that the Dolphins will find LSU quarterback Joe Burrow on the board — he’ll have long been a Cincinnati Bengal by the time the Dolphins are on the clock. But what if that was not the case — what if the Dolphins still found a way to manufacture the #1 pick?

    The Dolphins are poised to have a successful future with five 1st-round picks over the next two seasons, but the key to success in the NFL is still undoubtedly the quarterback position. Could the Dolphins use that ammunition to prompt the Bengals to trade out? It’s unlikely, but yes — it should be considered a slim possibility for Miami to package picks to move up to first overall. And given their assets, the Dolphins could potentially do so without mortgaging their future like the Washington Redskins did for Robert Griffin III earlier this decade.

    It will require a big package of picks for a team to move to the 1st-overall pick. The Redskins traded up from the sixth overall pick, to the second overall pick with the Rams in their deal for Griffin. The trade distance (four spots) cost the Redskins three first rounders (2012/2013/2014) and a second round pick (2012).

    The Dolphins have the 5th overall pick and would have to move up that same distance, four spots, to get the first overall pick. And unlike the Redskins, Miami has so many picks in 2020 they could maneuver picks without hurting their future draft classes. Miami could offer up their three first round picks this year and a second this year in a deal and still have a second round pick this year, two first round picks next year and two second round picks next year left over. The Redskins were set back by a trade of this magnitude —the Dolphins would be to a much lesser degree.

    Currently, the value for the first overall pick is 3000 points according to NFL Draft trade value charts. Miami’s three 1st-round picks (5th, 18th and 25th – tentatively) are worth 3,320 points. That’s not quite enough really to push the for a QB hungry Bengals team. For good measure, general manager Chris Grier could throw in a third round pick (70th overall) — worth an extra 240 points.

    Grier could also manipulate a deal to keep one of the 1st-round picks this year and part ways with a 1st next year, instead.

    Getting Cincinnati to accept an offer? That’s the tricky part. But history and past trades indicate Miami could at least have the ammunition to manufacture a trade for Burrow with the first overall pick and not give up any picks beyond 2021 or even 2020.

    Smile Dolphin fans, brighter days are ahead. The Dolphins have never had this much buying power before."
     
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  24. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    News of new OC Chan Gailey coming to Miami and his obvious ties to Ryan Fitzpatrick might give credence to the idea that Miami like Fitzmagic and are going to roll with him.

    Of course, if that's true it doesn't mean they aren't thinking of drafting Tua or a project QB to replace Rosen and who might take the reins after a year or two. It could well indicate that Fitz is the guy for the 2020 season, they're aiming to win, and could look at drafting around Fitz, and taking a QB later than expected...

     
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  25. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Honestly, I wouldn't hate seeing us give up #5 and # 18 this season plus a 1st next season for Burrow. It is a gamble and it would cost us a starting player this season (losing the #18 pick), but that's really a small price to pay if you think Burrow is legit. Personally, I feel like he's one of the better prospects of the past decade and I'd be all over that if Cinci would entertain it.
     
  26. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    Rosen is cheap so I don’t think they will get away from him. Unless they draft say Tua and keep him to later trade him.
     
  27. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    Would love to see Tua declared healthy and bengals take him and Burrow falls to us.Probally won't happen though.
     
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  28. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

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    I lean more towards Burrow than Tua, but I wouldn't mind the latter. But we really do need a QB in this draft.
     
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  29. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    The natural rehab part of Tua's injury is six months...that's when he'll be walking normally again and we're about 6 weeks into that so far. So come draft day, we'll be able to see if he can walk without a limp...which tells us nothing about changes to his throwing motion, speed, mobility, etc. We won't know that stuff for another year so somebody is drafting him 100% in the dark.

    Someone will overpay for Tua and he will go in the 1st round, but he's honestly a 4th or 5th round pick based on the uncertainty of the situation. It's a big gamble to use our 5th overall pick for a guy who may never play a down in the NFL...and then you have to figure out if he's an NFL-level starter or not.
     
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  30. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Lots of Twitter talk today saying that the strong feeling is that Tua doesn't declare this year.
     
  31. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    He may not...although I think it would be dumb for him not to. If he's not back to form then he may not be drafted at all in 2021, and if he plays great then he's exactly back to where he is today (maybe #2 overall instead of #10-20 overall). I really hope he declares and makes some kind of payday instead of letting greed potentially cause him to end up with nothing.
     
  32. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Mariota cant even complete bubble screen passes.

    Although I dont think Tua is great, he isnt as bad as Mariota is.

    He could be decent in a good roster. I dont think his anywhere worth a top 10 pick.
     
  33. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    If they want butts in seats, they have to win. Nobody cares who your quarterback is so long as you’re winning
     
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  34. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    If this team doesn't take a QB this year, it's just going to solidify the reputation they have for being crappy drafters. Take a look at the teams with star QBs right now, the ones either already in the playoffs or headed that way. They didn't, for the most part, just luck into the perfect QB the first one they drafted. They drafted one loser after another, one disappointment after another, until they found the right guy. We have floundered around with trades and free agents and only once spent a high draft pick on a QB and then didn't draft another in the first round for SEVEN YEARS. We need to spend a first rounder on a QB this year and if he doesn't work out, we should draft another next year. And another in two years and whatever it takes to get the right QB.
     
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  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    We HAD one of those QBs. So no, we didn't need to draft another QB.
     
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  36. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Then why didn't we keep him?
     
  37. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Bad coaching/management?

    I mean, your post is actually kind of a contradiction. We drafted a QB in the first round, and he's now in the playoffs. The Titans definitely lucked into him being available. Their first round pick is terrible.
     
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  38. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    It's not a contradiction. Obviously, they didn't think he was the right QB, but they kept giving him chance after chance with no competition. They should have drafted another QB in the first round 2-3 years ago.
     
  39. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    K. Happy New Year.
     
  40. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Honestly it might be best if we dont take a QB until Gailey gets out of here.

    I dont expect him to be around long after he flops miserably, that means our new QB will be stuck in the same cycle of learning new systems each year until we find someone.

    I dont think people realize how important it is to keep good staff members like O'Shea for stability.
     
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