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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Would you take Ryan back for one of those first rounds picks?
     
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  2. fin13

    fin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    WTF your running back puts up 182 yards controls the clock and people are criticizing RT he won the game in the Pats home field and at night to boot.
    He did a beautiful job handing off the ball to Henry.
    The usual suspects putting RT down, I hope we pick up Mariotta when he gets cut and pass on Tua
     
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  3. fin13

    fin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I wouldn't want him to put up with the football savants like Miko Grimes but maybe we pick up Mariotta so we can flog his disciples
     
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  4. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    lol
     
  5. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    One thing I did lime about the Titans is that they kept running the ball even when they fell behind on the scoreboard. Tannehill had many games in Miami where the OC would abandon the run whenever they were behind on the scoreboard and opposing Ds could just sit back in pass prevent mode.
     
  6. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Just no to Mariota.
     
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  7. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    They were dancing with who brung them. Henry was perhaps the best running back in the league this year, and Tannehill had the fewest pass attempts per game in the league as a starter. No reason to change that formula when the margin on the scoreboard was never such that they had to pass.
     
  8. fin13

    fin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm sure you love Josh Allen too
     
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  9. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    The comparison is more than fair. Passer rating is passer rating and the league average is irrelevant.
     
  10. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    In a heartbeat!!!!!!!!
     
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  11. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The league passes the ball differently now than it did in 2001. Why else would the league average passer rating be so much higher.
     
  12. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    You can't EVER abandon the run...EVER!!! There are so many times a running back will rip off a 10, 15, 20 or more yard run...picking up more yards than a 5 yard swing pass in the flat or receiver coming across the middle and yet so many times, folks will say "they didn't have any choice but to throw". There is ALWAYS a choice and if you make yourself one dimensional and throw the ball al of the time, you're more often than not going to end up on the short end of the stick.

    Balance on offense is the key to success.
     
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  13. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    My point is that's not enough to discard him. No he's not gonna run around like Russel Wilson...lotta QBs have won the Super Bowl without it. How many Super Bowls does that type of QB have, currently? Ya...

    And "going off script" isn't in the Titans plans, so save it.
     
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  14. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    - AFC Player of the Month in December (a month he "can't play in" according to many here)
    - PFF Top QB for 2019
    - Pro-Bowl alternate after only 10 games
    - #1 Redzone TD%
    - #3 Completion %
    - #1 Passer Rating
    - #1 YPA and other yardage average stats
    - #1 Explosive plays
    - Highly rated under pressure (top 3)

    But he's not good enough for the Dolphins cuz he's not Wilson.

    Fun fact: Last 2 QBs to lead the league in YPA and passer rating were MVPs...can't have that crap around here.
     
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  15. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Relax dude.

    I don't know that there's been a bigger Tannehill proponent on this site than me. Don't start throwing stats at me.
     
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  16. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Oh I'm not throwing them at you...I know you back him up.
     
  17. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    The last time I checked, the player called the quarterback throws the ball in a forward direction to a player dictated as the receiver...and the opposing team has a player designated as the defender trying to prevent the catch by said receiver.

    Same way the ball's been thrown for the last 100 years
     
  18. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Last year in the SB, the Patriots held Goff to 19 of 38 attempts. 0 TDs, 1 INT, 4 sacks, and passer rating of 57.9
    Goff had no rushing attempts and struggled the entire game as the Patriots Defense stifled the Rams ground game (18 for 62 and a fumble) and dared to Goff to beat them passing.

    Brady meanwhile went 21 of 35. 0 TDs, 1 INT, and a PR of 71.4

    Patriots won the 2018 SB by kicking FGs and rushing for 154 yard and a TD.
     
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  19. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    What are you concluding on the basis of that?
     
  20. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Some things speak for themselves.

    By your analysis though, Brady's performance was indicative of a losing effort.

    However, being that football is a team sport, the Patriots won in spite of Brady's struggles by playing stout defense, kicking FGs, and running the ball.
     
  21. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    Its not that they pass the ball differently it's that for ratings the league created rules that made it far easier to pass, put more protections in for receivers and quarterbacks. Changed pass interference and neutered defenses. Passing the ball is exactly the same as it ever was.
     
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  22. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I agree. Those are essentially the reasons the league passes the ball differently. Obviously I wasn’t talking about the mechanics of throwing and catching the ball.
     
  23. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    I have no problem with DJ personally.

    The rub with me is fact that I find it annoying to continually read guys in the mold of Manziel, Tyrod Taylor, Kaepernick, Mariota, Alex Smith and Fitzpatrick being drooled over while we had Tannehill throwing for damn near 4,000 yards and 25 TDs annually.

    It is damn near amazing that we were as competitive as we were with those garbage first time coaching staffs that brought no identity, GMs with no long term vision and the clear misuse of personnel (especially in Tannehill’s case).

    And now it’s undeniable that Tannehill has PROVEN himself to be a QB that can take you to the playoffs and win.

    He did just that in the most hostile of places against the best defense in the NFL. It wasn’t pretty but if you’ve been around you’ve seen much worse from all time greats, Manning and Brady included. How did Brees do today?
     
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2020
  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Let me just add one thing about the statistics for win% given passer rating. It's not just the expected win% (average win%) for a given passer rating that matters, it's also the variance. It turns out that variance in win% is larger the lower the passer rating is (until you get to extremely low passer ratings). In other words:

    The lower the passer rating, the less reliable passer rating becomes for predicting win%

    You can see this in the graph below. Look at the vertical spread of team win% for each passer rating. It tends to get larger with smaller passer ratings. So when a QB has a high passer rating, it's MUCH less likely for the rest of the team to do anything to change expected win%, while with lower passer ratings it's much more likely that the rest of the team EITHER vastly increases the probability of winning or vastly decreases the probability of winning.
    [​IMG]

    And of course on a separate note, that best-fitting purple line there with the equation Win% = 1.04*PR - 46.75 gives you the equation needed for calculating the probability of winning for any passer rating, once you adjust to 2018 ratings. Just pointing this out so people can actually calculate expected win probability if they want.

    For the 2018 SB no adjustment is necessary since it was in 2018, and plugging Brady's PR = 71.4 into that equation gives you an expected 27.5% probability of winning, while Goff's 57.9 rating corresponds to 13.5% win probability.

    If you want to compare to Brady's first playoff game in 2001 where his rating was 70.4 you need to first adjust ratings to 2018. Easiest (approximately correct.. so without z-scores) way to do that is to go look up the average rating for 2001, which was 78.5, and the average rating for 2018, which was 92.9, from here:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm

    Now calculate 70.4/78.5*92.9 = 83.3 adjusted rating in 2018-numbers, and that equation in the graph tells you that corresponds to a 40% probability of winning. Note that without adjusting for era you'd get a VERY different result (and not accurate statistically).
     
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  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The onus put on Brady in that game was similar to the onus put on Tannehill yesterday. The opposing quarterback (Goff) played very poorly, even more poorly than Brady, and Brady's running game produced at a much higher level than that of the opposing team. Consequently Brady could have a poor passer rating of 71.4 and still be a part of a winning effort.

    However, just like with Tannehill yesterday, Brady's contribution to that game was that of making his team more likely to lose than to win, and his team compensated for that and won the game.

    I'm not sure why you keep making the point that football is a team game, when what I've said about Tannehill's game last night is that the rest of his team compensated for his performance and won the game. Obviously that requires a team effort. Are you fully understanding what I'm saying?
     
  26. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Consequently Tannehill could have a poor passer rating and still be a part of a winning effort.

    You finally get it. Awesome. :up:
     
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  27. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Based on the above, Tannehill's passer rating of 61 last night gave his team an 83.3% chance of losing the game.

    This is what I've been saying all along here about how his performance was associated more with losing than with winning, and that the rest of his team compensated for that and produced a win.
     
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  28. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I've been saying that all along. So apparently you finally get it.
     
  29. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    His best plays didn't light up his rating, with the exception of the TD...but people would have to actually watch what was going on to get that.
     
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  30. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    I told you yesterday that we were in agreement on Tannehill being part of a winning effort n helping to win the game.
     
  31. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    When a player's overall performance is associated with 83 losses in every 100 games played in that manner, he's not helping his team win. If you see it differently, that's fine, and I'll leave it at that.

    Please don't expect any more communication from me with you about this topic. Have a nice evening.
     
  32. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    Ryan tannehill joins peyton manning as the only QBs to beat Tom Brady 5+ times including playoffs
     
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  33. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    You are looking at it backwards using hindsight though in saying "they won the game therefore he was part of a winning effort." It's circular logic. They likely won more in spite of him than because of him is the point. For an alternate example, look at that crazy Rams/Chiefs MNF game last year. You would be arguing that a Rams defense that gave up 51 points was "part of a winning effort n helping to win the game". Yes, it's technically correct, but in reality. They just got fortunate with a few big plays and an offense that overcompensated. THill had a few nice plays in an overall not great game, but a running game and defense that overcompensated.
     
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  34. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You could just as easily say that with his several good plays here and there, Tom Brady helped his team win last night, and that would reflect the error in logic you’re talking about.
     
  35. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    How many times did Kirk cousins run witb it today? Or Drew Brees? Different QBs do it different ways and have different ask of the QBs in tbe offense
     
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  36. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Last thing I'll say about it and I'll shut up, especially since Tannehill has proven the haters wrong all on his own.

    For YEARS...a few of us have said over and over ad nauseum, "I want a good overall team...not another Marino that won't be able to have sustained success because the rest of the team sucks"...having a horrible OL is not the QBs fault...having a sub-standard, last in the league against the run defense, is not the QBs fault...have "Quesy" as HC is not the QBs fault...having scrubs like Hartline as your #1 playmaker is not the QBs fault...having RBs/TEs that can't block to save their lives is not the QBs fault.

    The one time this team was looking as if it was coming together during Tannehill's time was in 2016. Good run game, slightly better protection, and they were winning routinely...and by all accounts of coaches, analysts, fans, etc, Tannehill looked like he'd turned the corner and the game had slowed down for him in that Arizona game, before his knee got butchered. At that point, all the faith the people that backed Tannehill up was showing to be well-placed...then the injury, subsequent injury, and shoulder injuries happened, and he got ran outta town for scraps, we even paid Tennessee to take him!

    This team has been mediocre for decades...before and after Tannehill...but he shouldered a trainload of the blame during his 7 years, and he took it in stride. Never dogged out his line in public, never blamed anybody else, just took it, like the hits, and kept getting back up and at it. This team's problems run far deeper than Tannehill...hopefully its turning around, we'll just have to wait and see. And Tannehill is showing what we always said he could...given better surrounding cast. He's not that GOAT...he's not on Manning's, Brees', Marino's level...but very few in history have been. You have to catch lightening to get that...it's not sustainable. A very good overall team is. Now we get to try to get a new QB, while Tennessee is very happy with their new one.
     
  37. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Statements like this have always bugged me. Ryan Tannehill (Or Manning for that matter) didn't beat Tom Brady. They beat the Patriots defense. Tom Brady was not on the field playing defense, so they didn't "beat Brady"
     
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  38. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Right?

    Or the QB vs. QB head to head stuff...

    I'm not going to say that QB's don't feel pressure when they see the other guy doing a good job, but I very much doubt NFL QB's see themselves as in a battle against the opposing QB. Maybe I'm wrong?
     
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  39. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Well my whole thing is quarterbacks are literally playing against each other. They're playing against the defenses. If Team A's quarterback is shutdown by Team B's defense, then did Team B's quarterback beat Team A's? Of course not, that's silly and yet so many discussions, here and in sports media are portrayed just like that!

    Did Kirk Cousins miraculously beat Dree Brees yesterday? Nope, Cousins and the Vikings offense beat New Orleans defense. Drew Brees had nothing to do with it.
     
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  40. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    You're smart enough to know this isnt true.

    I mean yes, what you said is true, but if that were everything how would you account for the much different passing statistics and careers of modern QB?

    The rules have evolved to favor offense and the passing game specifically. It's why Griese could be a great QB back in the day with #'s that would have him as a backup today. Not because QB were lmk ess inherently talented but the rules of the day prohibited them.

    It's been a constantly evolving set of rules too rather than a sudden one, so while the 2000's had it better than the 70's or even 90's, they still arent 100% comparable to today.
     
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