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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    And do you know what is weird? In the first playoff game for Wilson that year, he was 9 of 18 for 103 yards with a passer rating of 67.6. What would your stats have said about his chances....LOL.

    In fact, Wilson has had passer ratings of 67.6, 44.3, and 63.3 ALL IN PLAYOFF WINS!

    Oddly, he has had passer ratings of 109.1, 110.6, 91.1, and 105.9 IN PLAYOFF LOSSES!

    Whoa..... that does not compute.......
     
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  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Well then whatever it is dependent on is going to want to get paid as well. Now you're talking about five offensive linemen.

    Again, not easy to maintain the surroundings around the QBs who need them to perform individually at a winning level.

    There's a reason why just a single Super Bowl in the last 15 years has been won by an average QB who wasn't on his rookie contract.
     
  3. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    For some, it is purely to troll.
     
  4. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I'd say those reasons are named Tom Brady and Peyton Manning for the most part, along with Brees.

    Also like I've said I dont believe they will replaced in the league necessarily. The QB incoming have a much more even talent level and have for almost a decade.

    I do see a shift back towards building a strong team unit in the league coming.
     
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  5. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL. I think you actually believe that......LOL.

    Your world is so binary that you cannot conceive of a situation where QBs get most of the praise/blame but still need an adequate supporting cast. LOL. Jesus.......
     
  6. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    And that was accompanied by HISTORIC LEVEL OF QB EFFICIENCY AND BIG PLAYS. Why is it difficult to imagine that a drop-off i surrounding talent on offense will only result in a similar drop-off in passing game efficiency? What is wrong with passing game efficiency in the 100 to 110 range?

    I notice that you have NEVER ASKED if Henry can keep up his rushing because it is so hard to maintain a top pass blocking OL and a historically efficient QB to challenge the defense. You only have to look at the first 6 games of the year to see the effect of the QB....
     
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  7. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That's entirely possible, but I think that approach will always be hampered by the salary cap. You just can't pay everybody. The shift I see coming is in decreasing the importance of the QB's passing ability if he can compensate for that with his running ability. Lamar Jackson is the prototype for that obviously.

    But even if that were to happen, you're still talking about rare birds at the quarterback position who will be associated with the best teams in the league, and those teams will similarly need less production from their surroundings because of the QBs they have, thus making those surroundings easier to maintain.
     
  8. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    There was one won by a below average QB.....not on his rookie contract.
     
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  9. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I have a challenge for you. Review the 15 drop backs by Tannehill against the Chiefs and critique his play. Describe each play and what he did well and not so well. Talk FOOTBALL instead of stats for one post. Can you do it?
     
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  10. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Nope, I've never said that nor have I ever hinted at any such thing. All I've said time and time again is that football is a team sport and that the quarterback NEVER does it all by himself
     
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  11. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    OK, and I certainly don't disagree with that.

    However, if QBs differ in individual ability, then the degree to which they are dependent on their surroundings to perform at a winning level individually also differs, and consequently a QB like Drew Brees doesn't need his surroundings to be as good as does a QB like Josh Rosen.

    Neither of them is doing it all by himself, but Brees needs his surroundings to do less than Rosen does, for both of them to play individually at a winning level.
     
  12. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    If you REALLY think that, then you really know very little about football.
     
  13. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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  14. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    If you don’t agree that Drew Brees would’ve performed much better than Josh Rosen did for the 2019 Miami Dolphins, then we can certainly agree to disagree about the topic and end the discussion at this point. Thank you for making your position clear.
     
  15. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Ok, stop the madness. You are comparing a 2nd year quarterback with one of the greats of all time. You are comparing at best, a back-up quarterback with one of the greats of all time.
     
  16. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I’ve said it before, skill wise, I don't think there is as big a gap as people think between the best QB in the league and the"worst" backup. The"worst" backup is still "elite," as compared to every other QB from DI college. That's why they're in the NFL. Put them out there throwing at targets, etc, they can all make the throws. It's absolutely about how they handle adversity. It's absolutely about the team around them, for the vast majority of QBs.
     
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  17. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I will say I think there is a big difference in talent between the top and bottom myself. A lot of guys cant make all the throws at a high level due to accuracy and arm strength which do exist.

    What I dont think there is, is a massive gap between the average starting QB and his peers.

    I dont for instance think Andy Dalton is a bad QB despite what others may think. I think hes basically a league average to solid starter that can get you to the playoffs.
     
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  18. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    The honest truth is that none of us can really predict with certainty where the league will go until it's already moving.

    Too many variables to do anything but give an educated guess IMO

    When I say building a strong team that doesnt imply you have to pay everyone though. There are always positions that require less to get similar results or where solid veterans can be found cheaply.

    It comes down to making proper roster decisions, not so much paying everyone.
     
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2020
  19. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    But that's the point, that there are individual differences in ability among NFL QBs. And if some QBs are better than others, then by extension the better QBs don't need as much from their surroundings to play at a winning level on an individual basis. Drew Brees doesn't need as much help from his surroundings as Josh Rosen does to play at a winning level individually. You could say the same thing about Drew Brees in comparison to Cam Newton, for example. We don't need to use an example with such a stark difference individual ability to make the same point.
     
  20. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I dont think Brees is the example you should use since much like Tannehill it took moving to a new team to fully unlock his potential.

    Manning or Brady would suit your cause more. Even Rodgers or Wilson.

    Not debating your point, just saying.
     
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  21. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I agree with that. The question then becomes whether Dalton can play at a level associated with winning in the playoffs, when he's very likely to face the best defenses in the league and be in clutch situations where he has to perform at a higher-than-normal level to succeed. If he can't do that, he can't get you to a Super Bowl, let alone win one.

    And that's precisely where we are with Tannehill at present, determining whether he has that ability, since he's in the playoffs for the first time in his career, and he's had difficulty performing well against better pass defenses in and clutch situations for six of the seven years of his career.

    The larger question is whether any quarterback who has been historically average and isn't on his rookie contract can win a Super Bowl. If not, then that tells us what kind of resources we need to put into the quarterback position.

    Here is Andy Dalton's career postseason performance by the way:

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DaltAn00/gamelog/post/

    And here was Tannehill's the other day:

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TannRy00/gamelog/post/
     
  22. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Except Dalton had some pretty stacked teams around him.
     
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  23. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Care to explain why Brees' passer rating of 89.2 in his last year in SD is the lower than any rating he has posted since? Brees had one season above 90 in his four years of starting in SD. He has one season below 90 in his 14 years starting in NO. Was it a coincidence that this change occurred at the same time as he changed teams? Furthermore, is it a coincidence that he has had the same head coach and a stable situation during the entire 14 years in NO?

    Are you trying to say that these stat lines for yearly averages are not heavily influenced by the surrounding situation?

    With SD - 62% completion %, 209 YPG, 6.8 YPA, 85 passer rating
    With NO - 69% completion %, 301 YPG, 7.8 YPA, 101 passer rating

    If we had been having this discussion about Brees at the end of the 2006 regular season, you would have been CONVINCED that Brees would never be able to maintain his sudden increase in efficiency. You would have analyzed the crap out of why this change occurred. You would have been wrong in all of your assumptions, assessments, stats usage, etc. etc.
     
  24. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Lie.
     
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  25. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I wouldnt say they were necessarily stacked. Better than us, yes.
     
  26. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    From an article on theathletic.com on QBs throwing catchable balls. Just some additional nuance to the game that some of our stats heads will never get unless they pay more attention to the sport itself.

    Here we see Tannehill as the 3rd most accurate QB while still throwing the ball down the field.

    upload_2020-1-8_15-32-54.png
     
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2020
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  27. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    same team same teammates (arguably Mariota had better team mates because of injuries)
    Mariota 92.3 passer rating
    Tannehill 117.5 passer rating.
     
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2020
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  28. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I'll add that that was while increasing the AY/A from 7.8 to 10.2!!!!

    The TD% also jumped from 4.4% to 7.7% That is huge.

    Finally, the red zone TD % went from bottom of the league to best in the league.
     
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  29. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    The doubters should really take a look at those numbers and the video in this post - https://thephins.com/threads/titans-to-start-ryan-tannehill.94693/page-87#post-3241602 and rethink what they think they think about Tannehill.....
     
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  30. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Speaking of that video, I counted 15 times where Tannehill moved within or out of the pocket to avoid pressure. Can the doubters please stop saying that he never does it?
     
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  31. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

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  32. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Yes. Looks like he could have been a good successor, although I haven’t seen much of his play.
     
  33. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Question: Do both Drew Brees and Josh Rosen require a receiver to catch the ball for the pass to be successful?

    The answer is yes, so don't try to twist it some weird way. So, yes, both QBs are COMPLETELY dependent on their surroundings to have successful pass plays.
     
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  34. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Culpepper, largely not a great QB, threw what, 49 with Moss on the team? I bet Culpeper would have thrown more than Brady that year in that offense. I bet John Beck would have looked much better in that offense. I mean, Cassel got a big deal out of running that offense for a season. Brisett looked pretty good running that offense and turned it into a starting gig in Indy.
     
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  35. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    "Pick a guy and let it fly."
     
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2020
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  36. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Some info about quarterback play in the playoffs between the 2010 and 2018 seasons (99 total games).

    The era-adjusted (adjusted to 2018) average passer rating of winning teams in the playoffs is 103.7; standard deviation 24.7.

    The era-adjusted average passer rating of losing teams in the playoffs is 82.6; standard deviation 26.2.

    Using a two-sample t-test, these groups are significantly different at a probability level of 0.000000027.

    So if we define a "winning quarterback performance in the playoffs" as something within a standard deviation of what typically wins in the playoffs, a quarterback must have a passer rating of at least 79.

    A passer rating below 79 gives a quarterback only about a 16% chance of being part of a winning team in a playoff game. A passer rating below 54.3 gives a quarterback only about a 5% chance of being part of a winning team in a playoff game.

    If we define a "winning quarterback performance in the playoffs" as something that gives a team at least a 50% chance of winning a playoff game, a quarterback must have a passer rating of at least 103.7.

    Feedback from #cbrad would be appreciated if and when he has the time.
     
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2020
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  37. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don’t follow?
     
  38. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I’ve been very clear over the years so I’m still gonna wait.. I will be the first here to admit it if I see the individual performance that would garner trust.. jmo
     
  39. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You forget all the context and parameters that came with those names.

    For example, pre draft I said we should take Taylor in the 6th round and that he would be a steal for a qb taking in the 6th Round, when mostly everyone else mocked that he would even make it as a backup, he has proven that evaluation big time..played well over his draft stock, that is how I judge..

    Kaepernick I was always a fan and amidst the majority saying the dude couldn’t play in this league I projected that he could, dude played his best game in the Super Bowl, should of win it, and has a nice run relatively speaking.

    Fitzpatrick I don’t know what you mean, I never talked about him until he became a dolphin, but I sure like how he plays the position at his age,smart enough to know he has to use his entire skill set to beat defense, I did say for one game I would take him over Tannehill.

    Alex smith Not sure why you are referencing him..

    Anyways, you are not clear on any of these it seems, Mariota yes , geez, y’all make me admit that every week, it’s pretty funny, and interesting, how you and a few others won’t let it go..Tells me a lot.

    This is a Tannehill thread so I’m not sure how it turned into pointing out things that some of you don’t like about me, so maybe we should stay on topic...
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2020
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  40. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Question, do you think Tannehill could of had as good as year with this offense as Fitzpatrick had with the offense?
     

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