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Dolphins may prefer Herbert to Tua at No. 5

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by The G Man, Feb 17, 2020.

  1. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    If I were forced to guess what the Fins' front office mindset really is, I would guess they desperately want Joe Burrow but would take Tua at number 5, but they're unsure about trading up to take him and might stand pat if he goes before them.
     
  2. RevRick

    RevRick Long Haired Leaping Gnome Club Member

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    If that is the case, and they are that desperate - Do it! Put the package together. I would rather be pilloried for taking a shot and missing than not taking a shot and regretting. [That is, if the shot is a considered and studied proposal and not just a SWAG!]
     
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  3. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    My guess is they want Tua or Burrow. They will consider Herbert or Love at 5, but only after everything went to hell with Burrow or Tua. I'm sure there's a price they won't pay to go up and get one of those guys, but they probably see them as a clear step above the rest of the class. Regardless, they will obviously do their due diligence with all the QBs.
     
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  4. Phin McCool

    Phin McCool Well-Known Member

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    I'd sooner take a punt on PJ Walker from the XFL rather than draft either Love or Herbert. Christ on a bike, if we miss out on Burrow or Tua after what we've just gone through, you just may as well move this franchise to London cos we'll never be relevant again.
     
  5. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    This is only true if you consider Tua and/or Burrow to be sure things.

    Personally, I dont think either is any safer a bet than Herbert. I do think Love is 2nd tier though.

    Whoever we draft I will support them even if I dont like the pick.
     
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  6. Phin McCool

    Phin McCool Well-Known Member

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    Indeed but it still won't make the frustration disappear.
     
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  7. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    True, it will only disappear if the player succeeds.
     
  8. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Winning makes the frustration disappear- and that won't happen with ANY of the QB's being discussed if we don't protect them. If we can't bring in 6-7 starting caliber linemen then we may as well stick with Fitzpatrick and draft defensive players.
     
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  9. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Honestly the line can be strange.

    Sometimes you think you need 5 guys but when you plug only 2 in, you end up with a consistent 5 anyway.

    So much has to do with knowing who you will be blocking, trusting the guy next to you to do his part, and not having holes everywhere so you can reliably use your extra protection (running backs, TE, so on) to create the illusion your entire unit is on point.

    We definitely need to focus on the line but I think a dominant center would be the best starting point, followed by the tackles and finally guards.
     
  10. RevRick

    RevRick Long Haired Leaping Gnome Club Member

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    That is what will usually happen when a team finds a offensive lineman that not only has the necessary equipment already onboard and knows how to use them to influence those around him in a worthy fashion. The usual objective of such a person is to knock the defensive person into next Tuesday, unless they play on Monday night, then that opponent should wake up on Thursday.
    We haven't had one of those types around in a long, long time. [Larry Little, etc., etc., etc.] Then the team needs to have a kick @SS center - one who will kick the opposition tukkis ahead of him, and in the huddle the tukkises or tukkies (or is that tukki) of those who aren't getting the job done...... usually after a well seasoned verbal posterior enlightenment in which that person will as gently as an offensive lineman knows lead the shortcoming one to understand better how to actually play the game. The O-line is the engine room of the vessel. Ours has acted like a rusty ancient Evinrude for the past several decades on average, and a canoe without any paddles in worse times. The best quarterback in all of Christendom cannot pass laying flat on the ground.
     
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  11. The G Man

    The G Man Git 'r doooonnne!!!

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    With neither Tua and Burrow participating in drills at the combine this week, it will be very interesting to see how Herbert does with the spotlight squarely on him.
     
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  12. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I expect he will look great. The Senior Bowl and Combine are designed perfectly to shine the light on the big, strong armed QB. It's all about physicals. I have no doubt that there are some who will move Herbert to the top of list after this week. IMO it's not good evaluation, but it is what many do.
     
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  13. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I think it's too simplistic to say it's all about physical attributes shooting guys up the board.

    Teams are heavily weighing the physical traits, but good teams are also looking for coachable weaknesses vs weaknesses that are harder to iron out.

    The bottom line is a guy with elite physical tools and coachable weaknesses has a far better chance at success than the reverse. If it wasnt the case, Ken Dorsey and Matt Leinart would be HOF players.
     
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  14. Wilkimania

    Wilkimania Well-Known Member

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    Here's my take on the top 3 QB's as far as the fanbase seems to go
    Burrow - Nobody seems to have really strong feelings towards Burrow. He's the guy that wasn't in the conversation to go #1 when we started the season and so nobody really started talking him up, and by the time that he started to emerge as a real prospect, we had begun to play ourselves out of the conversation to go at 1 which led to nobody really every fixating on him as a prospect other than a what could've been.

    Tua - I fear for this man. Not because of injuries, but because parts of the fanbase have talked him up to such a degree that he'd have to win more super bowls than Brady and break every QB record of all time to not be labeled as a bust. Slight hyperbole but my point stands that a good portion of the fanbase can no longer be in any shape considered objective when it comes to Tua and their exuberance towards him has even infected the casual fanbase. Now sure that's been boosted by the media and their tanking for Tua rhetoric, but still, we've reached a point where I think there will be a large blowback if he's not the pick unless somebody loses their mind and trades ahead of us whilst offering some deal so crazy that we can agree that we shouldn't match it. Well, that or some unforeseen medical setback.

    Herbert - He's Ryan Tannehill. Not in a player comp way but he's the reminder of what could have been. When Tannehill was drafted, there was a portion of the fanbase that was immediately against him because he wasn't Luck or RGIII and I think that regardless of what other pro's and cons that the man had over the years, I think he struggled to ever shake off the fanbases almost unconscious disappointment in him. That's Justin Herbert this year. He's the runner up prize to the teams that don't get the guy that was the pre-season reason to tank or the Heisman winner. Sure he might emerge to be the best quarterback in the class, but I think in Miami he'd face an uphill task to win over the fans, especially if Tua and Burrow live up to the hype.
     
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  15. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Accuracy is a clear weakness and not a coachable one. Herbert has not been anywhere as accurate as Burrow or Tua. Herbert has decent stats b/c of the unusually high percentage of hitches and screens his offense throws (top 10 in the country), but he's well below the other two in terms of accuracy. Herbert isn't even as consistently accurate as Tannehill was. According to PFF, Herbert was only 50% in accuracy on passes 1-9 yards down the field. And his passing grade was also below average in the country for intermediate passes.

    Now Herbert is not a horrible prospect. He is in that Tannehill range as a good QB you can probably win with. But he's not an elite level prospect like Burrow and Tua. Herbert has been in the top 20 in terms of passing from a clean pocket, which is historically one of the most stable metrics going from college to the pros. That's not bad, but well below Burrow and Tua who are never worse than top 5. Anybody who pushes Herbert past them is doing so on physical tools rather than what they all showed on film. Which is what I was saying in the post you responded to.
     
  16. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Accuracy is probably one of the most coachable of all physical tools if a player is a hard worker IMO because it is mostly just recognition of where and when to throw the ball and maybe mechanical at times.

    I also kind of take college accuracy stats with a grain of salt. As I've already said in either this thread or another, it is infinitely easier to throw a completion to a stud WR that creates massive separation than it is a bunch of guys who are well below NFL caliber and either late picks or UDFA types.

    Even just knowing your WR can come down with it if the throw is a bit off can mentally impact your game positively. There is a big difference when you know you need to throw the ball perfectly all the time.
     
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  17. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    With Burrow, he was consistently beat out for a starting role in his first two years of college...so he wasn't even a top 20 QB prospect entering the college season....he was a nobody that would have gone undrafted. He made the move to LSU for a chance to start and literally made the most of it every week- the kid had a very solid season and he was clearly one of the top 3 QB's last year (Lawrence and Tua also belong in that conversation).

    The problem is that to grade him past this previous season, you have to go all the way back to high school...where he was also a backup a good part of the time. So everything on Burrow comes down to a dozen games of football and whether or not you believe what he did is sustainable at a higher level.

    Personally, I watched almost every LSU game and he certainly looked to be the real deal...his poise in the pocket is as good as I've seen in college over the past 10-15 years. At the same time though, LSU was never really challenged this season and he was able to attack the field vertically on any given down....he had a solid line and amazing receivers. I would want him on my team for sure but at the same time, I don't see how anyone could try moving to #1 overall based on 12 games of film. I love Burrow as a prospect but it's impossible to say that he's a day one starter....we just won't know until we see it. And the same could be said on any college QB but in most cases, you're looking at 30+ college games and 30+ more in high school.

    If I were the GM of the Fins, I think I'd try to trade out of #5, pick up an extra 1st rounder next year, and then push all my chips in on Lawrence in 2021. Then I'd focus on offensive line and RB, ride Fitz-Magic for another season and give Rosen a 2nd audition as well over 3-5 games. As much as I love Burrow, I can't get past him losing the starting role for 6+ years...there has to be a reason for that and I'd be talking to all his former coaches. And I would be okay with Tua at #5 but at the same time, is he injury prone? We don't have either of those questions with Lawrence and that's why I'd pass.

    Sadly though, I think Burrow was clearly the best QB in college football last season and he appears to be a great kid as well. He just doesn't check enough boxes for me to pull the trigger on a trade-up if I'm in the front office...that lack of experience scares the poo out of me, despite appearing to have every tool an elite QB needs.
     
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  18. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    We're just going to disagree on that. The stats have shown that QBs rarely improve their accuracy going from college to the pros. And I've spoken to several coaches who have said the same thing. If it was just about hard work then Tebow would have been an NFL success.

    And I'm not talking about accuracy stats. I'm talking about ball placement. That's a function of mechanics and processing speed and a player who has gone through HS and college has usually capped out. The fact of the matter is that accuracy rarely improves after that.
     
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  19. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    The only way getting Lawrence is realistic is if he's NOT considered a premier prospect. Because if he is, the team with the #1 is most likely NOT trading that pick no matter what you offer them. Just like with Luck where Indy said there's no possibility of a trade.

    And that means that to get him you need to tank, which isn't happening.

    So you need to ask yourself how realistic your strategy is. I think it's highly unrealistic to think you can rely on a most likely QB starved team with the #1 pick trading away that pick when they could get a premier prospect at QB.

    We need to get our QB in THIS draft, can't bank on some ideal situation occurring in 2021.
     
  20. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I agree in theory, but I think Burrow could be a bust based on lack of starting experience and Tua might not be a long term answer due to injury...I would not trade up for either one. And again, I freaking LOVE, LOVE, LOVE Burrow...I've been singing his praises here since week 2 of the college season. I would not want to bet a starting lineman and starting CB or RB, plus a later round role player on moving up for him though. I'd say the exact same on Tua if we need to jump to #2 to get him.

    So if it's not Tua at #5 and it's not Burrow at #1, your theory suggests we draft Herbert or Love. Herbert looks good...I wouldn't mind having him....but I don't see the same potential as a Burrow or Lawrence. But let's say we could trade up to #1 for Burrow this season...we'd pretty much have the same odds of trading up for Lawrence next season. There's really no difference except that we'd have a much better stocked team going into 2021 and pieces to protect that franchise QB.

    Because the absolute last thing I want to do is bet the farm on somebody and then have them beaten senseless like we saw with Fitzpartick the first month of last season. That's a sure-fire way to call our next QB a bust and possibly land him on injured reserve. I'd rather take Hurts in the 2nd this season and get those key pieces in the trenches.
     
  21. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    IMO there will be more QB needy teams next draft. The lure of Lawrence will prompt some of the potential QB suitors this year to put off trading up this year in hopes of getting Lawrence next year. I've already seen articles discussing that. Not to mention that due to contract situations and other considerations teams like Detroit, Carolina and Jacksonville are more likely to be in the QB sweepstakes next season. Basically I expect more buyers/more competition for QB next year. And if Lawrence has the year most expect then I do not believe whomever has the top pick will trade back at any cost. So I do not agree that trying to trade up to #1 next year will be just like trying to trade up to #2 or #3 (more likely) this year. And I expect that Miami, in the second year under Flores and with a more comfortable Fitz will have a better record next season. I see almost zero chance that Miami will be in any position to get Lawrence next year.
     
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  22. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I agree that trading up for Burrow is extremely unlikely (same with Lawrence) so it's really Tua or bust. We have the draft capital to ensure we get Tua and I'd do it. We also have the luxury of sitting Tua for a season. So I don't see the issue with surrounding cast here.

    Trade up if necessary to get Tua and let Fitz start for a season. That would be my plan.
     
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  23. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Okay, but I think to be guaranteed Tua, we're going to have to trade with Washington for the #2 overall pick. They want Chase Young and moving back to #5 means they don't get him, so I'd imagine moving to #2 will basically cost the same as moving to #1.

    And as much as I don't want to move up AT ALL, I'd rather move up for Burrow than Tua. We could tie Rosen into the deal as well so Cinci gets a young QB prospect, a few extra #1 picks and possibly Tua at #5...or they could use our picks to move back up for Tua or anyone else they're in love with. I'll repeat...I DON'T want this scenario to play out! But if we have to move up, then let's grab the QB who's healthy anyway and coming off a record-breaking year.
     
  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Tiny chance Washington lets go of that #2 pick. I know enough Redskins fans to know they were SOOOO happy they won that Chase Young bowl (the loss vs. the Giants). Talent-wise I don't think there's another player like Young in this draft. So I think the probability Cinci or Washington trades their pick is nearly 0%.

    So you want to guarantee Tua? Move up to #3 in a trade with Detroit. 99% certain that should be sufficient, and we can outbid everyone.

    Again.. dose of realism suggests Burrow is not in play.
     
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  25. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    They said he's in play for a "King's Ransom", which means they've thought about it anyway. I think 3 firsts and Rosen would likely seal the deal (maybe with a 4th or something thrown in as well). I mean, if they had a legit shot at Tua and two other day-one starters, I don't see how they don't seriously consider it anyway. In many regards, Tua is the most proven QB in this draft and may deserve to go #1 overall.

    Again, I absolutely do not want to trade up for Burrow yet I'd probably be thrilled if we did...it's just a strange draft in that regard since we have so many options.
     
  26. Wilkimania

    Wilkimania Well-Known Member

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    I don't follow him and my laptop freaks out if I try and load up the article online, but has Armando really just repeated that the Dolphins have Herbert at the top of their board?
     
  27. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Tua's still in rehab and Burrow is extremely unlikely, so from that point of view "top of the board" might be technically correct.

    If Tua's healthy and back in form I don't see how any competent staff would not pick him if Burrow is off the board. So I'm not worried.
     
  28. Wilkimania

    Wilkimania Well-Known Member

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    Right because from the way some of the people I follow were reacting, they were making it sound like we had Herbert ahead of Burrow and Tua regardless of availability.
     
  29. DOLFANMIKE

    DOLFANMIKE FOOTBALL COACH 32 YEARS Luxury Box

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  30. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Not surprising. Despite what a lot of people say in here, Tua is a risk. Maybe worth taking, but a big risk.
     
  31. DOLFANMIKE

    DOLFANMIKE FOOTBALL COACH 32 YEARS Luxury Box

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    Yeah. I love Tua the leader, person, and player. I hope regardless of who selects him that he makes it big in the NFL. But that said his injury is really scary for a team in our situation.
     
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  32. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I thought from very early in the season that Burrow was more impressive than Tua and the kid just kept getting better, more confident, etc. He almost has an arrogance in the pocket in that he sees everything around him and can slide with ease, sort of like a Cam Newton in that regard (no, I'm not comparing him to Cam...just his pocket mobility!). He throws beautiful passes as well and to my eyes, he's the surest thing to come out of the draft since Luck.

    Yet I don't trust my eyes in this one circumstance because it was one season with a very elite team around him. How does a player with one year of starting experience go #1 overall? I just can't wrap my head around that.
     
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  33. The G Man

    The G Man Git 'r doooonnne!!!

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    From NFL.com...

    Winners
    Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon: Nothing surprising about Herbert's athleticism or his throwing prowess Thursday night. The ball came out very well and the placement was plus. The arc on his deep throws was impressive. Receivers didn't have to work too hard to bring in his passes, whether on in-routes or speed outs. The Oregon product was also smiling and joking during the workout, showing plenty of personality. Yes, everything was against air, but I've seen other talented passers look far less polished in the same situation. Mission accomplished.

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...ng-combine-winnerslosers-justin-herbert-stars
     
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2020
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  34. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    You know, I may be wrong about Herbert. He may be a great pro. But when I watched guys who became great pros in big college games, they always seemed to be the one in charge. They were out on the field firing the team up and taking them on their shoulders. I did not see that from Herbert in big games. He won some of them, but I never got the impression he was carrying the offense on his back for those wins.
     
  35. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    MVP of the Rose Bowl and Senior Bowl.
     
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  36. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Senior bowl is close to meaningless. I watched the Rose Bowl. He did well, but he wasn't the one firing those guys up.
     
  37. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    There have been reports for a long time now that Herbert isn't a natural leader, more of an introvert, etc. Herbert and those around him have gone out of their way to dispel those beliefs of late, but you certainly don't get the impression that Herbert is anywhere as much of a leader as Burrow or Tua.
     
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  38. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    I realize this is out in left field, but I wonder if the Redskins will do what the Cardinals did and go QB at #2 and then try and trade Haskins. I know the fans are very high on Young, but isn't the goal for every team to try and get a franchise QB? With Burrow gone, I think Tua or Herbert would be an upgrade over Haskins, wouldn't he? If so, we could be looking at a scenario where Burrow and Tua are gone, and the Lions not willing to trade because they could take Young. That leaves the Giants at 4. With basically every top player available, would they even risk trading with the Chargers so they could get Herbert? If we miss out on the top 3 QB's then surely we are going to go BPA and grab someone like Okudah. I have read the Giants need an LT, too, so they would probably go there, but for what they gain from trading with the Chargers, would it be worth missing out on the top CB with the way the league is right now?
     
  39. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Snyder (the owner) loves Haskins. It's why there was almost no talk during the season among Skins fans on using a high pick on a new QB. Everyone wanted Young. Also, despite starting poor, Haskins finished the season real strong. So their recent "interest" in Burrow and Tua is probably just to see if some QB needy team gets desperate and gives up a massive pick haul for the #2. I doubt it happens though.

    Like I said, it's not absolutely certain but if we want Tua I think with 99% probability you only need to trade up to the #3 spot.
     
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  40. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Snyder's kid went to high school with Haskins iirc. And after a rough start, Haskins played well down the stretch. Also, Rivera isn't an offensive guru - he's likelier to want defensive weapons. The Cardinals' chances of taking Murray increased mainly when they hired Kliffy, an offensive guru who had a long history of praising and liking Murray.

    I agree with you CBrad, the Skins are feigning QB interest to drum up trade offers. Chase Young would be a great pick, but they do have a good line already - they may prefer to trade back and grab Simmons or Okudah (or some WR help) plus another few picks.
     

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