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Question About Buying a Car

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Mar 2, 2020.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I went to a dealership today and the salesman told me he had what he believed to be the best Ferrari ever produced in his showroom. He let me view the car up close and it was beautiful, but then he made all kinds of excuses why it wasn't available for a test drive. Then he told me that that car wasn't actually for sale- to have it in my collection, I'd have to trade in three of my rare exotics- a Porsche, a McLaren and a limited edition Viper.

    Okay, so I just made all of that up...but that's essentially the "trade" many of you want to make to draft Tua at #3 overall. It will cost us three dominant starters for a site-unseen quarterback that may be able to start in one season or never at all. And even when he does start, he's playing on two surgically repaired ankles and a surgically repaired hip....which may or may not actually make a long term difference.

    I liked Tua as a prospect pre-injury but had questions if he was the real deal behind that high-octane offense in Alabama. He will likely be an above average NFL quarterback at some point but we have no idea if that will be six months from now or five years from now. And no matter how hard I try to get behind drafting him, I keep going back to that car scenario...we'd be trading the best LB or CB in the draft, the best RB in the draft and one of the top three offensive tackles....to move up two overall spots.

    And for those of you who say it won't be that expensive, remember that it's a seller's market and multiple teams want that #3 pick. It's going to take at least two 1st rounders and a 2nd or more- we could potentially get Burrow for not much more than that.

    What I'm saying is, if we're going to bet the farm on one QB, then let's try to buy the sports car we can actually kick the tires on and test drive. Burrow had an absolutely incredible season and he looks like an NFL veteran in the pocket already...he's years beyond what we'd get from Herbert or Love. Tua simply doesn't make sense no matter how you try to justify it unless he falls to us at #5....but even then we're giving up a guaranteed 7 year starter at another position.

    I just don't see it.
     
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2020
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  2. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Given that Burrow is almost certainly out of market, I think the most realistic trade is our #5 and one more 1st for the Lions #3 (possibly an extra mid/low round pick, but not an extra 2nd IMO). Given the historical probabilities of picking consistent starters in the 1st round, that means we're most likely giving up only 1 solid starter at a non-QB position, not "3 dominant starters".

    Of course, the probability that Tua (most likely pick.. other possibilities are likely smokescreens) turns into a franchise QB is fairly low, maybe at best 20-25% assuming "franchise QB" means consistent above average starter and not necessarily elite. But that's MUCH higher than if we don't use our first pick on a QB. In other words, the opportunity cost of not picking Tua is also very high (assuming he's healthy).

    Knowing that, would I make the trade? Yes.

    We need to find our franchise QB, and giving up 1 solid starter for a small but by far the best chance we'll have in years at finding a franchise QB is one I'll take. And I think Grier and Flores think the same way. We'll find out.
     
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  3. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    Does that 20-25% chance of being a franchise QB only apply to Tua or can we say that other QBs we might select in the top 5 like Herbert or Love share the same or similar probability? In other words, you aren't being QB specific with your analysis, right? It's just based on QB's that were taken high in the 1st have a 20-25% chance of being a franchise QB, correct? If you are determining specific QB probabilities then I would be interested in what you have for the other QB's.
     
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  4. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    I was going for a run last night, and I had an interesting thought. It feels like the entire trade market surrounding the 3rd pick in the draft is far more about jumping the Dolphins than it is about Tua.

    So here was a simple thought that I had. What if Grier casually told a beat reporter, "I don't envision us moving up to three because I am confident that the guy we want will be available at five?"

    I seriously wonder if this would crater the entire market for the third pick. In my mind, that would be a giant tell that the pick would be someone other than Tua. The Chargers might be thinking that they too could stand pat and get their guy. If teams covet a guy other than Tua, perhaps they get spooked, jump us, and take Herbert or Love, and ultimately push Tua further down to us.

    Now, I know that this whole thing could be ballzy, but here is the caveat. We could still call the Lions with 4 minutes left of the clock, and just say, "Mr. Ross really wants to get our guy. What is the price to get up to three?" With such little time, it would be hard to drum up a market. This is where a relatively fair take-it or leave-it could be tossed around by either team.
     
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  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah I'm not being specific in the analysis. I'm just assuming Tua is our QB of choice if we pick at #3.
     
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  6. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I know some picks don't pan out....even in the 1st round. But the part that you're missing here is that our team is so devoid of talent that those 1st rounders will almost surely be starters in 2020. Part of what makes players bust is not being able to crack the starting lineup (due to talent, injury, whatever) and that's not much of a problem in Miami at the moment. So if we trade three early round picks, we're almost certainly trading 3 potential starters.

    As I said earlier, I like Tua the person and I believe he's a solid QB prospect. Those three surgeries give me pause though when you're talking about multiple picks for one person. I'd be fine with Tua at 5 or 18....it's a roll of the dice without throwing away what we gave up in Tunsil and Minkah. But I don't think we have the luxury of gambling on a single player with (1) a lengthy medical history and (2) never won a national championship as a starter on one of the most dominant college teams in history.
     
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  7. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Two of the surgeries were optional and should help alleviate any potential future issues - the only real concern is the hip and by the draft there should be enough info to make an informed decision. We are highly unlikely to actually make a trade prior to the draft itself.

    Your second concern I noticed you had to add in that qualifying word (starter) to make your point. Because he did save Bama's title game coming in for Hurts against Georgia. In 2019 and 2020 they just ran into other teams that were as dominant or moreso (Clemson/LSU). You can't make "winning a national championship" in a team sport a big concern.
     
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  8. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Whatever Grier and Flores do with our first pick is going to be the most important signal yet regarding how they want to build this team. Any team that wants to follow in KC or Houston's steps will prioritize getting that franchise QB (focus on the huge opportunity cost of missing out on your QB of choice) over maybe 1-2 starters at other positions, while any team that wants to follow in SF's steps will do otherwise.

    The game has changed to such a degree that it favors getting a dual-threat QB that's the centerpiece of your offense, and I prefer swimming with the current than against it, so I'm hoping Grier and Flores either stay put at #5 to pick Tua or move up to guarantee it. Well we'll see. Very informative decision coming up about who we have at GM and HC.
     
  9. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    Dude, I apologize for not keeping up with your thoughts on this or anyone else’s, but if we stick at #5, if Burrow and Tua are both gone are you going Herbert at #5? What if Tua is there at #5? Also, would you consider it a failure if we do not come away with one of the big 3? How would you feel about Fitzpatrick holding down the fort for a couple of years if we surround him with a decent OL and a better than average RB?
     
  10. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Normally, I would absolutely agree with you...but Alabama these last 3 years is literally one of the biggest college powerhouses ever. I mean, they'll have 15+ starters in the NFL from those teams and that's virtually unheard of.
     
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  11. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    They should just say they are out on Tua as his medicals are a real question mark. Make everyone question if we saw something they didn't.

    Then draft him.
     
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  12. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I posted in another thread- if Miami thinks they have their QB in Rosen, we will not draft a quarterback at all this year in the first two rounds. That's going to be the biggest tell for Rosen's future.

    Miami is sort of leaking that they may prefer Herbert over Tua and at the end of the day, I personally feel like they're already getting their excuses in order to explain why they don't jump up to #3 on Tua. There's no sense in moving to #4 since you could get leapfrogged there as well, so Tua could take #2 or #3 to be a definite lock (although Washington seems locked on Chase Young at 2). I honestly don't think Miami will make that move and I'm not positive they take Herbert either since his weaknesses are Tannehill's weaknesses (see "MY 7 Round Mock" analysis there...I went in-depth about halfway down the 1st page).

    So despite what others are saying, if we don't land any of the Big 3 QB's it's going to be intentional. Herbert will likely remain available throughout the top 8-10 picks...he's ours if we want him. But if someone does jump ahead of us for Tua/Herbert, then you're looking at the best CB, OT or LB suddenly falling to us at #5...three players who are graded much higher than the rest of the players in the draft. So no, I don't think it's a failure if we take one of the top talents in the entire draft over Herbert, personally I think that's the smart move IF YOU BELIEVE ROSEN IS THE GUY.

    It all comes back to Rosen for me and how confident the front office is in him. If they think he's the starter, then you don't waste 2-3 picks on Tua in a loaded draft just for an insurance policy. As fans we can't make that call though- we have no idea where the team stands on QB needs. Draft day will tell us though.
     
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  13. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Your analogy isn't quite perfect due to the rarity of elite QB prospects and the disparity between elite talents and non-elite at the position. You miss out on a super rare vehicle, you can always buy another fancy car that gets you around. You miss out on an elite talent at QB, your chances of being a competitive team go way down.
     
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  14. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I mean, I called Tua potentially the best Ferrari example that was ever made....it's simply not ready for a test drive and it's going to cost three really nice vehicles to own it (likely LB Simmons, OT Jackson and RB Swift or Taylor). Considering those picks have already cost us Tunsil and Minkah, I just can't see ultimately trading 5 day-one starters with Pro Bowl potential for Tua.

    There are definitely some Porche's and McLarens in there we'd be passing on. =)
     
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  15. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    They are good, but there are teams that have caught them now. They aren't head and shoulders better than EVERYONE like they used to be. Clemson has been as good the past several years, Ohio State is excellent, LSU had an incredible year, Georgia is a powerhouse. These are all teams that can absolutely challenge or exceed the talent of Alabama - it hasn't been automatic for several years now. And Tua does have a championship win - I don't really think you can fault him for getting it despite coming off the bench to do it.
     
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  16. ripper1961

    ripper1961 Active Member

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    I don't know what the odds are of a first round QB are of winning a championship. The odds that concern me are the lefties who have won championships. Stabler, Young and Brunell. Brunell wasn't even a starter. I don't like to play against the odds.
     
  17. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Are you saying that lefties for some reason have less chance than righties to win?
     
  18. muskrat21

    muskrat21 Well-Known Member

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    bad analogy, you don't have a porsche, LE viper, or Mclaren. you have 3 boxes that you have no idea if it's a porsche or ford pinto and with this FO regime it's more likely to be 3 pintos
     
  19. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Minkah was a McLaren and Tunsil was a Porsche...and those are now two of our first round picks. And there are plenty of pure studs in the first round of this draft; maybe not fully proven on the NFL level yet, but much less likely to be Pintos a year from now. I'd agree if we were talking about trading 4th rounders, but we're not.
     
  20. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Look, I’ve said this time and time and time again...we need to build the TEAM before we go getting all stupidly crazy about a quarterback. All of you (figuratively speaking) are so quarterback crazy that you’re missing the BIG picture.

    We discuss quarterbacks all of the time...this quarterback, that quarterback...Rodgers, Brady, Rivers, Mahomes...on and on and on. Tannehill can be included for the purpose of this post. You guys are so hung up on quarterback that you overlook the one important factor as to WHY these quarterbacks have had such success...they started playing on teams that were already established and needed a quarterback as the final piece.

    Rodgers was drafted the heir apparent to Favre and started on an already established team. Favre’s days were over but the team was still established.

    Brady was forced into the starting position following Bledsoe’s injury, taking over an offense that had been built by Parcells and maintained by Belichick. The team was already established.

    Rivers took over following the departure of Brees, a team that was not playing bad football at all. The Chargers just wanted to go in a different direction other than Brees.

    Speaking of...the Saints weren’t really a “bad” team...they just needed a quarterback...and once Brees came to NOLA, the rest is history.

    And the same can be said for Tannehill. He started after Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Mariotta was benched. The exact same team...but needed a quarterback.

    There are so many other examples of great quarterbacks who were drafted/started on established teams...teams that built the team FIRST then went out and got their “driver” to drive.
     
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  21. Triggercut

    Triggercut Well-Known Member

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    I'd give up a Gurley, or Barkley for Tua, definitely.
     
  22. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I think the big difference in the analogy and real life is that we have seen the car drive. It's more like a car we have seen driven many times but was totalled and rebuilt.
     
  23. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Some of this is just not true.

    First, we WILL see Tua, before he's drafted, in a "test drive".

    Second, if the need is there to trade for Tua, we aren't trading a Porche, McLaren, or Porche. We would trade potential. Nothing more and nothing less. Basically, we'd be playing "Let's Make A Deal". Behind pick #18 we could get a stud or a bust.

    Third, Tua does NOT have 2 surgically REPAIRED ankles. He had elective procedures in order to heal faster. These procedures will also help to stabilize and PREVENT any further ankles sprains.

    Last, it won't take giving up 2 first round picks to move up to #3. It will take SWAPPING #3 for #5 and then giving up one or more picks.
     
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  24. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    The 3rd pick in the draft is worth about 2200 points. The Jets, who actually gave up 3 second round picks, paid 3100 points for Darnold. For a net of -900, and for your franchise QB, that's a steal in my book. The question is, however, is Darnold a franchise QB? But, that's always the question with any pick. It's a game of wait and see. If Darnold turns out to be elite no one will care about that loss of 900 points (which weirdly enough equates to around the 18th pick in the draft). The Dolphins currently hold 3300 points in their first 3 picks, and 4150 in their first 5 picks. If the Dolphins gave up their #5 and # 26 (2300 total points) for the Lions 1st round pick (2200 points) that would be an awesome deal and only a loss of 100 points. Even if they had to also throw in a second rounder the Dolphins would "only" be giving up between 2600-2800 points for a 2200 point spot. Still better than what the Jets did.
     
  25. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    When people point out they were elective....they are missing the entire point and why its not relevant whether they were mandatory or elective.
     
  26. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    And what point is that?
     
  27. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    To me, the point was that he had ankle problems. And even though it didn't sideline him from injury, there was something wrong with both ankles.
     
  28. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Sadly one of our first round picks will not be enough to trade up for Tua... The Redskins or the Lions will want both of the additional first round picks.

    So we would be gambling... giving up three first round picks to move up 3 spots in the draft to take an injured QB

    Instead of taking Hurts in the 3rd round or Anthony Gordon in the 4th...

    Or hell even Herbert at the 5 spot if you believe in him

    But giving up three first round picks for Tua is one hell of a gamble.
     
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  29. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Well, they were sprained.

    upload_2020-3-4_11-11-43.png


    Nearly 100% of all players who had the above happen to them would have sprained their ankles. Nothing was wrong with his ankles before a 300# guy landed on them.
     
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  30. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    They may WANT both, but they will not get both and I'd be extremely surprised if they even ASKED for both.

    Using 3 first round picks on any player is a gamble. Using your 5th pick on any player is a gamble. The Draft is, you guessed it, a gamble.
     
  31. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    If there is any other player than Miami for Tua... We are not getting him for just one additional first round pick.
     
  32. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    A team can’t give what they don’t have, but since we have them won’t they ask for them?
     
  33. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Doubt it. You don't want to piss off a team who you want to trade with. I explained the point system up above. And yes, sometimes people WILL pay over the worth of a particular draft spot (i.e. the Jets with Darnold) However, asking for a swap (5th) and 2 more 1st round picks for a 3rd won't happen.

    If anything, the Dolphins would swap their 5th for Detroit's 3rd and then give up their 26th and one of their 2nd's. If that happened, the Dolphins would have overpaid by about 400 to 600 points depending on which 2nd they gave up. And, IMO, losing 400-600 points is well worth a franchise QB.
     
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  34. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    I just don’t want us to get fleeced.
     
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  35. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    We can throw the point system out the window.

    If I am the redskins or the lions I ask for more than three first round picks.

    If there legitimately are other teams trying to trade up for Tua.. Like say the Chargers... You throw that in the face of the Dolphins and tell them that they are getting 2 firsts and a couple of other picks from the Chargers and if they want to be the team that gets Tua it is time to step up or go home.
     
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  36. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    The Chargers don't have 2 firsts unless they give away next year's. A first this year is worth more than a first next year.

    And throwing away the point system sounds good, but it won't happen. A team is either willing to (and has the ammo) to overspend..or they don't. The Chargers don't have the ammo. And I doubt they'd overspend when they know they can get Herbert or Love.
     
  37. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    You cannot know that.

    You cannot just assume the chargers or the Raiders will not just agree to top whatever offer the Dolphins make to the Redskins/Lions.

    We can hope that there is no other team interested in Tua... So if the lions want to make the trade we can have some leverage.

    But if Tua gets cleared Monday and has a clean bill of health... and he kills it on his pro day.... You can bet there will be 4-5 teams wanting to trade up.
     
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  38. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Yes I can. The same way that I can assume I can't buy a $20mil house. I don't have the money. I can't just "agree" to buy a $20mil house and not have the means to do so. lol

    The Chargers don't have the ability to offer 3 firsts unless they want to swap their 6th for a 3rd, and proceed to give Detroit their 1st round picks in 2021, 2022, and 2023.

    Miami has all the leverage. They can out "spend" any other team in the draft.
     
  39. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    The way I see it, we don't have the ammo either though- those extra picks represent two Pro Bowlers in Tunsil and Minkah. We need 20+ players to round out our roster and I can't see getting overly trade-happy just because we do have two extra 1st rounders. If we do that and Tua is a bust, then we essentially had a 5 win season and gutted the roster for nothing- to me that's a doomsday scenario for the franchise.
     
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  40. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    This is one of the reasons I am against trading up.... Too much risk

    If Tua falls to us at 5.... Great!

    The most I would pay to trade up is something like swap pics this year give them a third this year and a second next year...

    Anything more than that I would roll the dice and draft Okudah in the 5 spot.
     
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