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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I'd like to see the proof that their line was bad. I remember watching one of the primetime game a couple seasons ago, either Sunday/Monday/Thursday night, don't remember which, where they put up a graphic showing that the QB with the highest% of sacks being his fault, was Russell Wilson. So, that would indicate that Wilson's style of play makes it more difficult for his line to block effectively for him, and actually, then, makes his line look worse than it would be with a different QB.
     
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  2. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Seattle won the SB with the leagues best running game and best defense by far. They played a style on offense that compensated for having an average pass blocking line by playing a system where the QB scrambles a lot to extend plays and WRs that break off patterns to find open spots for big plays. They traded sacks for big plays and avoided turnovers.

    If the 2019 Titans had the 2013 Seahawks defense, they win the SB, IMO. Peyton Manning was the league MVP in 2013 and the Seahawks defense destroyed the Broncos in the SB.
     
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  3. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Against the Patriots his EPA (expected points added) per play was 0.09, which is slightly below average. Against the Ravens his EPA per play was 0.26, which is above average but not even by a single standard deviation.

    So those games were nothing special in terms of playing in a way that's associated with points, and of course we know the team rode Henry heavily in those games. Percentage of pass dropbacks in both of those games was 28%, which was 6.3 standard deviations below the league average in 2019.

    So in two of the three playoff games in 2019, Tannehill's workload was extremely light, and his performance was nothing special in either game. In the third of the three games, his workload was heavier in the clutch due to Derrick Henry's diminished performance, and he responded to that with an EPA of -0.21 during that period of the game.

    So despite Tannehill's league-leading regular season passer rating, the Titans entered the playoffs obviously with a conscious decision to live or die with Derrick Henry, and when they died with him (against the Chiefs), they then died with Tannehill.
     
  4. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You won't find a single post in the hundreds of mine in this thread, or the thousands of them elsewhere in the forum, in which I've measured any quarterback's performance with wins.
     
  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    There's no "proof" you'll get in form of stats because there's no good OL stat. But it was a widely recognized facet of Seattle's offense that their OL was really bad. Almost everyone was saying that, take it for what it's worth.

    And sack% is not a good indication of OL ability precisely because scrambling QB's tend to have far more sacks. That's true whether the OL is "good" or "bad" per se. The QB's with the lowest sack% are pocket passers with quick releases, like Brees. That's also not an indication of whether the OL is good, just that the QB makes the OL's job a lot easier.

    I wasn't talking about Seattle's defense and running game.
     
  6. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Really? The OL is not involved in the running game? You claimed the Seattle OL was bad. IMO, that just isn't true.
     
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  7. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL.....
     
  8. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Henry scored two tds in the playoffs.

    2.

    That is what I'm referring to.
     
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  9. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yes I understand everyone said that. But Wilson caused sacks due to his play style. Of course, his play style also leads to some big gains, but it's still hard to block for him. We discussed this ad nauseum a season or two ago.
     
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  10. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I see.. I didn't know you were making that inference. Well, like I said, the great majority of commentators said Seattle's OL was bad – like I told resnor there's no real "proof" no matter what position you take. But "good OL" in the context of talking about the QB centers a lot more on pass protection than run blocking, and it's really hard to look at the tape and claim Seattle had anything close to a decent OL in pass protection. So I'm certainly agreeing with the majority view there that Seattle's OL was bad (esp: pass protection).

    Regardless, it's totally not true that EVERY team that makes the playoffs has a good OL. Another recent example is Houston. Made the playoffs while being widely considered to have a bad OL, which is why they paid a ton to try and upgrade last year.

    But it's not the sacks that led people to say they had a bad OL. It's the pass protection, or lack thereof.
     
  11. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    It is not scoring points that matter is the EPA estimates that matter. We MUST grade using the model predictions NOT what actually happened.

    I don't care if I'm wet, the weather forcast said NO RAIN!!!!!!
     
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  12. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Not in 2013 or 2014.
     
  13. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    TDs are a far less precise measure of point production than EPA. Consider the drive in which a QB throws a 98-yard pass to a receiver who is tackled at the one yard line. The running back then gets a one-yard TD run. Who deserves far more credit for those seven points? EPA divides that credit and gives far more of it to the QB, whereas a simple tallying of TDs does not.

    And of course the same thing can happen in reverse, where the running back carries the load and the QB benefits from it, which is what we're talking about here (the Titans in the 2019 playoffs).
     
  14. cbrad

    cbrad .

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  15. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    :yes:

    Every? Really? Hmm off the top of my head the 2011 SuperBowl NY Giants had the 32ND ranked rushing offense and 25th defense, the 2011 Detroit Lions had the 29th ranked rushing offense and 23rd ranked defense, the 2012 Colts 22nd in the run and 21st in defense, the 2014 Colts 22nd in the run and 19th in defense and lastly the 2010 Seahawks were 31st in the run and 25th in defense. If I actually researched I'm sure I can find more in the past decade or even go back past 2010.

    I guess I CAN objectively comment on Tannehill and every other QB in the league for that matter.
     
  16. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    For defense are you looking at yards or points allowed?
     
  17. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    Points.
     
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  18. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The issue with Wilson was classic confirmation bias. Tannehill was a top-10 overall pick and the supposed savior of the franchise, and Wilson was picked in the third round the same year. So when Wilson performed very well early in his career (starting in his rookie season), the view was that it must've been because his surroundings were so much better than Tannehill's. And because Tannehill was taking so many sacks, well then the difference had to be in the offensive lines. Couldn't be in the QBs.

    Of course when I proposed otherwise, I was hardly a popular guy.
     
  19. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Come on....... from the article you posted:

    Summary: This is something of a false ranking. The team has got back both it’s starting tackles and will be better for it, while the hope is switching McQuistan back to guard and getting the line that played last year on the field will kick Max Unger out of his funk.
     
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  20. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Except that TWO INDEPENDENT SOURCES REVIEWED EACH AND EVERY SACK AND CONCLUDED USING MORE THAN ONE MEASURE THAT TANNEHILL TOOK THE FEWEST NUMBER OF AVOIDABLE SACKS IN THE LEAGUE AND THAT WILSON HAD THE LONGEST TIME TO SACK IN THE LEAGUE........
     
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  21. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    lol.. 27th is where they ranked them for 2013. All they're saying is that the projection for 2014 might have to take a few extra things into account. You said Seattle didn't have a bad OL in 2013, and as far as pff and almost everyone else I remember commenting on the issue is concerned, they had one of the worst OL in 2013.
     
  22. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Not to go down the rabbit hole again...but there is literally no way to argue that Wilson wasn't in a far better situation his first couple years than Tannehill. The better the environment, the more a QB can develop. It's also ignoring the level of development that both QBs came in to the league with. It's also ignoring natural ability possessed by both that allowed them to deal with bad situations. In other words, Wilson is Barry Sanders who can throw, but Tannehill isn't able to run like that. So you need things like audibles or commitment to run for Tannehill to deal with bad situations.
     
  23. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    The problem here isnt Tannehill.

    It's that everyone has their own idea of how to build a team and how difficult it is to do so. Also, like I've said the last 15-20 years are skewed by the Patriots/Colts domination of the AFC with two QB who are up there for the greatest of all time.

    I think everyone should just share their team building strategy.

    Mine:

    Tier 1 Positions: QB, OLB/DE, OT, C

    Tier 2 (Slightly less important but still very key to success): CB, WR, Free Safety, Guard

    Tier 3 (An elite player still impacts the game in a way you want, but having just a solid consistent player is fine): HB, TE, Strong Safety, DT, ILB

    Tier 4 (Necessary and have a big impact, but you arent drafting these specifically day 1 or 2 generally): Kicker, Punter, KR/PR and the ST unit in general.
     
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  24. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Football Outsiders and I disagree.

    upload_2020-4-8_10-19-28.png
     
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  25. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    And here is 2014:

    upload_2020-4-8_10-20-35.png
     
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  26. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    What about pass blocking? Are you deliberately not showing that given that we're talking about the effect on the QB?
     
  27. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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  28. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Are you now arguing that a strong run game doesn't positively affect the QB?

    And you can't ignore that Wilson's style causes unnecessary sacks, which negatively affected the olines pass block numbers.
     
  29. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Strawman again? Are you arguing that pass blocking doesn't affect the QB more than run blocking?

    Football Outsiders ranked Seattle 32nd in pass blocking:
    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/offensive-line/2013

    FinFaninBuffalo deliberately didn't show that. I wonder why...
     
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  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    No the problem is Tannehill and QBs like him, in that when your QB is that caliber in today's NFL, you have an extremely small margin of error in building the rest of your team to Super Bowl-caliber.

    Said differently, when your QB is that caliber, your probability of building a Super Bowl-caliber team is far lower, because you're likely to make errors in assembling the other personnel (and keeping them), and your QB doesn't leave you room for as many of those errors.

    The top-notch QB allows you far greater room for error in building the rest of your team. This is why these guys are clamored for with such desperation in each and every draft.
     
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  31. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    This is the exact statement I was responding to - "Seattle won a SB and has been in the playoffs many times with a bad OL."

    I am showing what the OL did to contribute to winning the SB in 2013 and getting to the SB in 2014. You claimed that Seattle won the SB and got to another with a bad OL. I disagree, especially for the style of offense they played those two years.

    What was the single biggest take away from the 2014 SB? Why the hell didn't then run the ball at the end of the game??????
     
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  32. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    No-one is disputing that a top QB gives you more room for error. The debate is how much room for error is necessary.

    I dont think it's nearly as hard to build a team as you're suggesting with a competent GM. The issue is that many teams dont have that, they are screwed from the start regardless of QB.
     
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  33. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Well damn, then he better get that QB rating up then......

    You were the one touting passer rating differential as the be all end all for a long time. LOL. What happened to that line of argument?
     
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  34. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You can't play the game without the OL, so obviously the OL "contributed". That's beside the point. The majority view was that Seattle's OL was bad, and even football outsiders says that when you take both run blocking and pass blocking into account.

    Seriously, you just need to look at the games to see Wilson was running around in large part because of bad protection.
     
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  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I actually wasn't arguing anything. I was asking a question.

    I think good run blocking affects different QBs to a different extent. However, all QBs benefit from a strong run game (now I'm sure someone is going to find some outlier to disprove that).
     
  36. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Then won the SB with a dominant running game and defense. Period.
     
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  37. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah, I mean, I know it was like 8 years ago, but we absolutely should not be disregarding that Seattle defense that was holding teams to 16 points a game.
     
  38. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    AND with an elite QB but without a very good OL.
     
  39. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    You can't score points if you're not moving the ball.

    Imagine being Derrick Henry who was responsible for 2 TDs and 409 yards on 68 touches and being told you didn't carry the workload vs the guy who had 184 yds 4td and 1int (3 of which came inside the 12 after the Henry and co carried them there).

    That's like giving more credit to the goal line back because he has more TD's than the primary HB who has more than double the yds and is the primary reason the offense is moving up and down the field.
     
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  40. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    they were last in pass blocking in large part due to a QB and offense design that relied on hanging onto the ball and running around trying to hit the big play. Combine that with the league’s best running game and an elite defense and you win the SB.
     
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