1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    No other defense in NFL history was that dominant over a 5 year period. Four #1 rankings followed by a #3 ranking in points allowed.
     
    resnor likes this.
  2. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,329
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    That's true.

    But it's also not Tannehill's fault that they didn't call plays for Henry down there. It's not a knock on Tannehill. Know what I mean?
     
    mooseguts likes this.
  3. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    He was nowhere near elite in 2013 or 2014.
     
  4. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    Out of exceptions to the rule comes the potential for the discovery of better measurement.
     
  5. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

    362
    368
    63
    Jan 12, 2018
    Not saying it's anyones fault was simply saying Henry carried the workload.
     
    resnor likes this.
  6. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Dude.. he had a 101.2 rating when the league average was 86. Ended up #7. That was a major reason for their SB run.
     
    Irishman and mooseguts like this.
  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,329
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Right. Compare what Tannehill was being expected to overcome vs what a Wilson was expected to overcome. We're not talking about individual talent, just what the QBs were being asked to do.

    I remember looking at how many games Tannehill was asked to throw 25+ times, and looking at the opposing teams yards and points vs Wilson. It wasn't even close.

    It's easier to win games when you have a strong run game, and aren't asking your QB to throw 30 times and score 5 tds.
     
    Irishman and cbrad like this.
  8. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,329
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Yeah. I think all people are saying is that when Tannehill was asked to do things, he did it in spades for Tennessee.
     
    Irishman and mooseguts like this.
  9. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    Efficient, not elite. Not the first QB to do that. See Roethlisberger and Brady early in their careers as well.

    Ask yourself this question - If Wilson were considered an elite QB in 2014, does anyone question the play call at the end of the SB? Does ANYONE question that play call if it was Brady, Manning, Rodgers, or Brees in their prime? Come on......
     
  10. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    LOL..... Must. find. stat. that. discredits. Tannehill.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  11. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    There is no need for an outlier. The average correlation between passer rating and yards per rush, game-by-game, for the teams in the league in 2019 was a mere -0.06.

    Ironically, the outlier is the QB whose performance is associated with his run game, i.e., Tannehill in 2019, whose passer rating's correlation with Derrick Henry's yards per rush, game-by-game, was an astronomical 0.64, which was 2.2 standard deviations above the league average.

    In other words the correct understanding of what you're saying is precisely the opposite of how you're understanding it. Tannehill's performance was uniquely associated with that of his run game, far and away beyond that of the average QB.
     
  12. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Point is.. it wasn't just the defense and running game, Wilson was an equally important contributor to that SB and you left him out.

    And that stupid call at the end of the SB is no evidence of how good/bad a QB Wilson was. It was just one of the stupidest calls in NFL history (possibly THE stupidest if you take into account the importance). I mean you have Marshawn Lynch running really well, have one time out left, and don't run the ball at the 1 yard line. That says nothing about Wilson.. it says something about Carroll.
     
  13. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

    3,582
    2,579
    113
    Sep 12, 2015
    Like I've said, if you are built to be a passing offense and your gameplan going in is to throw 25+ times, your chance of a high QB rating and success at those numbers goes way up.

    It's not logical to compare two QB with entirely different offenses to one another. Especially when the team wasnt even built with Tannehill in mind.

    Put Tannehill with Andy Reid in KC and I'd guarantee his numbers and the perception of him are Mahomes like.

    The man made Alex Smith a legitimate QB threat with his offensive genius, yet we are only allowed to compare two QB and none of their circumstances?
     
    resnor likes this.
  14. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,329
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Again, rushing, in general, does not correlate to winning very well. What I am talking about, which I don't think stats show, is that without a solid run game, is how the QB is hindered. Not having a solid run game affects many things in regards to how the defense plays.
     
  15. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,329
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    I agree. I also don't think what you wrote is opposite of what I was saying. Tannehill was in a situation where he was being asked to throw a ton, in an offense not designed for that. Like, I don't think the gameplan was to abandon the run and throw a million times. Seattle was able to hold to their gameplan because their defense stifled opposing offenses.
     
    AGuyNamedAlex likes this.
  16. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

    3,582
    2,579
    113
    Sep 12, 2015
    Oh yeah, I was trying to agree not disagree so it should be relatively similar haha.

    Good point on Seattle too. When your defense can potentially shut out an offense any given day you're giving your offense a much easier situation to function in.
     
    resnor likes this.
  17. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    You left out the defense and running game initially...... I like Wilson as a QB and he deserves a lot of credit for sure. Unlike some participating in this thread, I don't completely discount what the QB still needs to do when they have a dominant running game. There are far more QBs that play average or worse with a dominant running game than those who play at a highly efficient level.

    I think the dominant defense played a larger role but no matter, Wilson did what he needed to do in 2013 and but for a great play by the NE defense would have again in 2014.
     
    resnor likes this.
  18. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

    362
    368
    63
    Jan 12, 2018
    Bro what?? Tannehill is pretty much an Alex Smith caliber QB and Alex Smith himself in the Andy Reid offense wasn't even close to Mahomes numbers even his peak numbers in his last year with the Chiefs. Numbers aside Smith was never even thought of as being in the same realm as Mahomes. Tannehill cannot be the focal point of your offense like a Mahomes, he does his best when the run game is the focal point. He's not a guy you can consistently turn to to carry more of the load if the run game isn't working.

    Furthermore one of the biggest reasons Mahomes and that offense is so special is Mahomes ability to improvise and scramble around to buy time for his guys to get down field. Improvisation and off script plays are Tannehill's kryptonite.
     
    The Guy likes this.
  19. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Dude.. I was responding to a false statement by The Dark Knight about the OL. So I didn't "leave out" anything. I never argued against defense and running game being important in Seattle's case. I just pointed out that YOU left out something.

    And yes I agree that the dominant defense was the most important of the 3, but I wouldn't say Lynch was more important than Wilson. That's either a draw or if I had to choose it's Wilson given the tilt towards the passing game in the current era.
     
    Pauly likes this.
  20. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

    3,582
    2,579
    113
    Sep 12, 2015
    That's a really interesting take. I respect your opinion, but I greatly disagree.

    Almost every QB under Reid has played well above their ability. I'm not saying Mahomes is bad or something, but he isnt nearly as effective without Reid.

    FWIW Alex Smith's best year passing with Reid was basically identical to this year from Mahomes. Yes his initial season starting was better, but he had a huge drop off this year with the same hype behind him.
     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2020
    resnor likes this.
  21. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    Yet you haven't argued the same for Henry and Tannehill......
     
    resnor likes this.
  22. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Correct. IMO Henry was the more important in 2019.

    I think I would change my mind and give more equal credit if Tannehill keeps playing at a very high level. Wilson has done that for so long it's much easier to ascribe a lot of credit to him independent of a running game than it is Tannehill. Again.. all opinion since I don't see how to resolve this with stats.
     
    The Guy likes this.
  23. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    All Andy Reid did was limit Alex Smith's percentage of the workload and give more of it over to KC's run game, which is exactly what Vrabel did with Tannehill in 2019.

    Notice there is no need for Reid to do that with Mahomes, however. Mahomes doesn't fall apart when he's in a high-volume passing game.
     
  24. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    And that may be true, but Wilson doesn't display anywhere near the decrement in performance Tannehill does in high-volume passing games. So when Seattle's defense doesn't stifle opposing teams and Wilson is therefore forced to pass more, Wilson's game doesn't fall apart.

    Wilson is not dependent on his defense, in general. Tannehill is.
     
  25. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,329
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Your position then is still that all high-volume games from all QBs are equal, and all high-volume games occur for the same reason?

    Despite you having had this exact line of thinking dismantled several pages back when you first brought it up?

    Further, the more times your offense has to become one dimensional, going away from your initial balanced gameplan, the more likely you are too see poor games from the QB. Wilson, especially is first 3-4 years, did not see even close to the same number of games where he had to throw over 25 times. In fact, I remember massive discussions revolving around exactly that. That as Wilson's attempts ballooned, his performance diminished.

    And we're talking specifically about a defense that averaged like 16 points allowed per game for like Wilson's first three seasons. That's a massive help to the QB.
     
  26. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

    362
    368
    63
    Jan 12, 2018
    Maybe he wouldn't be near as effective without Reid but Reid's offense also wouldn't be nearly as effective without Mahomes. I mean it literally went from 6th with Smith in 2017 to 1st with Mahomes in 2018. Reid himself went from 1 playoff win with Smith in 3 years to 4 wins with Mahomes in 2 years and a long awaited SB. I don't think it's a coincidence that Reid finally won a SB after acquiring an elite QB.
     
    The Guy likes this.
  27. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    The point is that Wilson isn't dependent on his defense and/or running game's functioning in such a way that it limits his workload. When those other parts of the team don't function that way for whatever reason, and his workload increases significantly, he plays comparatively well nonetheless.

    So, the point that Wilson is dependent on his team's functioning that way -- or he'd be a significantly worse quarterback -- isn't supported by the data. If his running game and/or defense falter for whatever reason, he's nonetheless able to play well when his workload increases.

    This was not the case for Tannehill in 2019.
     
    mooseguts likes this.
  28. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,329
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Maybe now. Again, I don't think anyone is arguing where they are today. However, Wilson, when with his superior athleticism, and with the other mentioned advantages, did not rule the league better than Tannehill did last season. That tells me that Wilson is better on crappy teams, but Tannehill can play to a higher level when given decent talent around him.

    I also think that the narrative strings Tannehill is so bad because he played for 7 years on garbage Miami teams. Had he played for say KC his entire career, the narrative around Tannehill would be far different.

    Just my opinion.
     
  29. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    Take a look at the article (linked below) from which the following table was taken:

    [​IMG]

    What you see there is that Wilson was able to play at a very high level in 2019 despite that he had perhaps the worst "team support" (offensive line, running game, and defense) of the six QBs noted.

    https://theathletic.com/1409182/201...s-crowning-the-2019-nfl-most-valuable-player/
     
  30. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    Fair enough, we can agree to disagree. I have the two exactly reversed.
     
    resnor likes this.
  31. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,329
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Aren't those the stats you were ignoring from FinFan?
     
  32. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

    682
    685
    93
    Mar 4, 2020

    Mooseguts

    What about the games where Tannehill played out of his mind and was the difference maker? The guy is money in the regular season and skeptics kept saying it was a fluke... could not last... etc... The guy goes and puts up incredible numbers... 4th highest QB rating of all time... leading the league in yards per pass and completing over 70 percent of his passes.. ( A truly elite level ) #1 red zone QB last year.

    So when the Titans beat the defending super bowl champs in their house... All of the credit goes to Henry.... The Titans then go back out on the road and beat the #1 team in football.... again you want to give all of the credit to Henry... They come up just short against the Chiefs again on the road and then the blame gets put on Tannehill because he just is not capable of winning.

    ..... Right.

    Drew Brees playing at an elite level for twenty years most of them with top head coaches surrounded by ridiculous amounts of talent on offense and he has one ring.... One...

    This you have to win the superbowl or you suck type of argument is getting ridiculous. You can throw phrases out there to cover your tracks like: "And there is nothing wrong with that." It is not fooling anyone. Your premise is still to diminish the accomplishment of Tannehill.
     
    resnor likes this.
  33. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    I looked at the EPA on PASSING ATTEMPTS from top 5 QBs by passer rating (Tannehill, Brees, Jackson, Cousins, and Wilson). Tannehill had the highest rating (of course) but also the highest EPA and the highest percentage of pass plays with positive EPA. We already know he had the highest CPOE by a wide margin.
     
    resnor likes this.
  34. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    The difficulty I have with Tannehill's 2019 CPOE stat is the following:

    https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/12/ryan-tannehill-titans-franchise-qb-new-contract
     
  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,329
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    How do you then combine that with the data that shows Tannehill is throwing into some of the tightest windows? How do you reconciled that with Mariota, throwing to the same receivers, being pretty much terrible?
     
  36. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    He wants to focus on the handful of deep throws early in the season and completely ignore the fact that he may have been the most accurate QB in the league at the critical intermediate throws. The throws that win you games.

    In addition, I've already showed him that Tannehill was the third most accurate QB in the league while also being third highest in average intended air yards. He had the 3rd lowest percentage of bad throws. He was also tied for first (among starting QBs) in average yards per scramble attempt.

    I guarantee that if Tannehill were mediocre in most passing stats and top only in deep ball passing, he'd argue that there aren't enough deep throws to be significant.

    At this point, all he is left with is cherry picking some stats and misrepresenting the rest.
     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2020
    resnor likes this.
  37. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

    362
    368
    63
    Jan 12, 2018
    Again he is not a guy who can shoulder the load of an offense consistently, nothing in his career has shown that he is that guy. He is a guy who needs the run game to be the focal point of an offense. Having games where he played out of his mind doesn't make any of this not true. I never said he hasn't had good games.

    Nick Foles has the 3rd highest QB rating in NFL history and I didn't want Foles here even after the SB win.

    I never said all the credit goes to Henry but he definitely carried the workload on offense, I don't see how that's not a fair assessment. If Dan Marino played in 2 playoff games in which we won, with the offense rushing for 400+ yds and Marino throwing for less than 100 yds in both games how can one not say the ground game carried the workload, the ground game deserves the lions share of the praise.

    I never said he is not capable of winning I said he is not a guy you can depend on to the carry the offensive workload (at least not consistently) and needs the run game to be the focal point. I mean the fact that in the 1 playoff game in which the Titans don't break 100 yds and lose kinda proves my point. You CAN win with Tannehill hell you can win a SB with Tannehill easily as long as you don't make him the focus of your offense and your defense can prevent a shootout. Like some one in this thread said in defending Tannehill...if the 2019 Titans had the 2013 Seattle defense the Titans win a SB. I 100% agree with this.

    I don't see how saying the Titans offense goes through Henry and if you stop Henry Tannehill isn't good enough to pick up the slack is blaming Tannehill for the Chiefs loss. That's just reiterating every I've said about him and what he needs. If I said to stop the Pats offense you need to stop Brady because the offense goes through him thats not putting blame on Sony Michel. Sony Michel is simply not someone you can consistently depend on to carry the workload of your offense.

    Where did I say you have to win a SB or you suck? What are you talking about? My premise is to give my opinion of Tannehill same as you. I think he's an above average QB who can excel when not the focal point but cannot be trusted otherwise. I've said it a bunch of times I'm not mincing my words or trying to be slick when I say there's nothing wrong with that. I've said what I think of him and said it bluntly he is an Alex Smith type of QB. There IS nothing wrong with that, Alex Smith had some good years would still be playing if not for injury. Just because you think Tannehill is some elite QB does not mean the Alex Smith comparison is some backhanded compliment. You could do a lot worse at QB than Alex Smith.
     
  38. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    I think that's accurate, but it's easy to read that without realizing the difficulty and improbability of the player acquisition involved in accomplishing it, especially against the teams likely to be faced in the playoffs.
     
    mooseguts likes this.
  39. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    I mostly agree, but still think your assessment of how much Tannehill relies on the running game is overstated. It is not black and white (i.e. you need a running game or you don't). IMO it is a continuum from least dependent and most dependent. Tannehill would, IMO, be somewhere in the top half, but when he has a decent running game and/or protection, he (as he has shown) can put up elite numbers. In addition, I don't think the running game needs to be elite. It just needs to be effective.

    I also think the running game greatly benefited from Tannehill being able to attack all over the field. That, I think, is a key difference between Tannehill and a guy who relies on a running game but is unable to make teams pay for focusing on the run. So while Tannehill may not be Rodgers or Mahomes, IMO, he is more dangerous than Cousins or Garoppolo and on par with Wilson.

    There are a handful of guys (Wilson, Mahomes, Rodgers, Watson, Jacson) that have less of a drop off when their OL is not good, because of their ability to improvise and extend plays. But, of those guys, only Mahomes and Rodgers throw the ball better than Tannehill.

    Finally, can we stop pretending that Tannehill didn't lead the Titans to a 35-32 win over the Chiefs?
     
    resnor likes this.
  40. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    And to answer the people who will get their panties in a bunch over the number of passing yards that Tannehill had, there were four critical points in the game.

    The first was when KC took a 10-0 lead. Here is the first scoring drive to put them back in the game:

    1-10-TEN 27 (11:57) R.Tannehill pass deep middle to K.Raymond for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN [A.Hitchens]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. R.Tannehill pass deep middle to K.Raymond to KC 21 for 52 yards (C.Ward) [A.Hitchens].
    1-10-KC 21 (11:34) D.Henry left end pushed ob at KC 18 for 3 yards (C.Ward).
    2-7-KC 18 (11:06) (Shotgun) R.Tannehill pass short right to J.Smith to KC 9 for 9 yards (T.Mathieu, A.Hitchens).
    1-9-KC 9 (10:28) R.Tannehill pass short right to A.Firkser for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    The second was falling behind 19-13 in the third:

    1-10-TEN 26 (6:48) R.Tannehill pass short middle to D.Henry to TEN 32 for 6 yards (A.Hitchens).
    2-4-TEN 32 (6:10) D.Henry up the middle for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    The Titans fell behind again 29-20 in the 4th:

    1-10-TEN 25 (11:54) D.Henry left guard to TEN 29 for 4 yards (D.Sorensen). PENALTY on KC-C.Jones, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 29.
    1-10-TEN 34 (11:37) (Shotgun) D.Henry left tackle to TEN 35 for 1 yard (C.Jones).
    2-9-TEN 35 (11:05) (No Huddle) D.Henry left tackle to TEN 39 for 4 yards (D.Sorensen; C.Jones).
    3-5-TEN 39 (10:25) (Shotgun) PENALTY on TEN-N.Davis, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 39 - No Play.
    3-10-TEN 34 (10:07) (Shotgun) R.Tannehill scrambles up the middle to TEN 46 for 12 yards (R.Fenton).
    1-10-TEN 46 (9:27) D.Henry up the middle to KC 42 for 12 yards (J.Thornhill).
    1-10-KC 42 (8:52) D.Henry left guard to KC 39 for 3 yards (K.Saunders).
    2-7-KC 39 (8:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) R.Tannehill pass short left to A.Brown to KC 22 for 17 yards (A.Hitchens).
    1-10-KC 22 (7:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) R.Tannehill left end to KC 15 for 7 yards (F.Clark).
    2-3-KC 15 (7:06) (No Huddle) D.Henry left tackle to KC 1 for 14 yards (C.Ward, J.Thornhill).
    1-1-KC 1 (6:30) (No Huddle) D.Henry left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Finally, the Chiefs extended their lead to 32-28 late in the 4th:

    1-10-TEN 39 (1:21) (Shotgun) R.Tannehill scrambles left guard to KC 43 for 18 yards (D.Sorensen; C.Ward).
    1-10-KC 43 (:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep left to A.Brown (R.Fenton) [T.Kpassagnon].
    2-10-KC 43 (:53) (Shotgun) R.Tannehill pass deep right to A.Firkser to KC 23 for 20 yards (D.Sorensen).
    1-10-KC 23 (:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) R.Tannehill pass deep middle to A.Humphries for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Tannehill contributed both throw the air and on the ground. The Titans were balanced and part of that balance was due to not falling too far behind. Two TD passes and two TD runs. Tannehill played key roles on three of the four drives.

    136 yard passing by Tannehill
    37 yards rushing by Tannehill
    111 yards rushing by Henry
     
    Irishman likes this.

Share This Page