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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Tannehill's average passer rating in games in which he had a below-average number of pass dropbacks was 119.7.

    His average passer rating in games in which he had an above-average number of pass dropbacks was 90.1.

    That difference isn't statistically significant (p = 0.07), owing to small sample size (he had just three games with an above-average percentage of pass dropbacks). The difference observed is consistent with his previous career however.

    What isn't consistent with his previous career was his overall percentage of pass dropbacks in 2019 -- that was much lower, and a statistically significant difference.
     
  2. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    And he blocked me again for reminding him of his obsession getting him banned.
     
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  3. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    It means something when applied to both QBs.

    However, what would it mean to you if Wilson's career average passer rating in high-volume passing games -- i.e., games in which his percentage of pass dropbacks is greater than average -- was far higher than Tannehill's?

    In other words, when Wilson doesn't have a game like the one you mentioned, what typically happens?
     
  4. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Maybe a larger font size will help.

    No, what that graph shows is that YOUR argument is unsubstantiated: namely that there's no statistical evidence Tannehill's decrement is worse than would be expected for a QB playing at his level.
     
  5. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Watch some games - https://gamepass.nfl.com/schedule?redirected=true&icampaign=nfl-nav-gamepass

    Until I'm convinced you have some understanding of the game, this is pointless.
     
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  6. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You aren't understanding the following distinction:

     
  7. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    there's no statistical evidence Tannehill's decrement is worse than would be expected for a QB playing at his level.
     
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  8. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Good luck supporting that one with statistical rigor, when he played a mere three high-volume passing games in 2019, including the playoffs.

    The team intelligently limited his pass dropbacks, and so the sample size is limited. However, the pattern involved (a large decrement between low- and high-volume games) was no different from his career previously.
     
  9. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    there's no statistical evidence Tannehill's decrement is worse than would be expected for a QB playing at his level.
     
  10. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    lol.. you guys are hilarious.
     
    The Guy likes this.
  11. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    What exactly does that statement mean to you?
     
  12. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    You guys? I created a bot named "Jane" to answer his posts....
     
  13. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    I don't see a reason to look at QB's with a lower adot I'm comparing him with similar adot QBs.

    Nothing weird about the Titans being 30th in pass attempts from weeks 6-17 yet 7th in sacks given up? Btw 4 of the top 6 had 100 more pass attempts than the Titans.

    He was sacked a lot in Miami and he was sacked a lot for the Titans. In Miami you blamed the OL and now it's because the offense has long developing plays. If everywhere Tannehill goes he gets sacked a lot maybe the problem is Ryan Tannehill. Even with the 2nd worst sack% of his career despite having a borderline top 10 pass blocking OL you still can't admit his pocket awareness sucks and continue to make excuses as to why he takes so many sacks.

    Even if he was throwing far more intermediate passes that doesn't mean there wasn't an outlet receiver for him to throw to so as to avoid the pass rush. Usually most offenses have a dump off guy so the QB has an option other than eat a sack.

    But let's look at the numbers you theorized the reason he had the 2nd highest sack% in the NFL was because he threw far more intermediate throws and far fewer short throws. An intermediate throw is defined as being between 10-19 yds. A short throw is behind the LOS to 9 yds.

    Tannehill had 286 pass attempts of that 76 were which means 27% of his passes were intermediate throws
    Tannehill 286 attempts-163 short-57% of his passes were short

    Stafford 291 attempts-64 intermediate-22% of his passes were intermediate
    Stafford 291 attempts-167 short-57% of his passes were short

    Winston 626 attempts-174 intermediate-28% of his passes were intermediate
    Winston 516 attempts-321 short-62% of his passes were short

    Wilson-516 attempts-115 intermediate-22% of his passes were intermediate
    Wilson 626 attempts-302 short-48% of his passes were short

    Prescott-596 attempts-145 intermediate-24% of his passes were intermediate
    Prescott 596 attempts-362 short-60% of his passes were short

    Allen-461 attempts-92 intermediate-20% of his passes were intermediate
    Allen 461 attempts-275 short-60% of his passes were short

    Fitzpatrick 502 attempts-140 intermediate-28% of his passes were intermediate
    Fitzpatrick 502-295 short-59% of his passes were short

    I mean excuse my french but gee golly whiz even a guy like Fitzpatrick who was on one of the worst teams in the NFL who played with the 32nd ranked OL whose deep%, intermediate% and shor% almost mirror Tannehill's and who had 0 run game to take any kind of pressure off which means defenses were free to focus solely on rushing the passer managed to be sacked less than Tannehill despite Tannehill having a vastly superior supporting cast. But good debate, I miss the Tannehill back and forth, it doesn't happen as much on the other board anymore.
     
    resnor likes this.
  14. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Not all sacks are created equal. This was acknowledged way back in 2013 when Russell Wilson was getting sacked a lot while taking a long time to throw and Tannehill was getting sacked a lot while being one of the quickest to throw (2.3 seconds).

    In 2019, Tannehill was sacked only 8 times in less than 2.5 seconds. 23 sacks came on plays where his time in the pocket was > 2.5 seconds. This is the exact opposite of what was happening in Miami. Also, take a look at the passer rating and AY/A in the dropbacks where he held onto the ball:

    upload_2020-4-9_15-58-38.png

    Irrelevant if the primary receiver is running the longer route and there is no reason (e.g. coverage) to come off of that route.

    What was Fitzpatrick's passer rating? Why the hell are you worrying about who took more sacks when one of the guys had a passer rating of 117.5 and the other had a passer rating of 85.5. You wouldn't trade a 2.4% increase in sack rate for 32 point increase in passer rating, nearly double the TD %, 0.5% decrease in INT rate, a 3.5 yard increase in AY/A, and a 9.6% increase in CPOE?

    I will take that all day, every day.

    BTW, does Russell Wilson have a problem with sacks?
     
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2020
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  15. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    One additional point, Tannehill had the 2nd highest TD % (behind only Lamar Jackson) and the third highest differential between TD % and sack %, behind only Drees and Lamar Jackson.

    That is a trade off between sacks and big plays and minimizing INTs.
     
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  16. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    Wilson took a long time to throw because he has pocket aware and can sense pressure therefore allowing him to scramble to buy time.

    In 2019 he was sacked 8 times in 2.5 sec or less and the other 23 came on >2.5? So another theory to debunk just like the he threw far more intermediate passes and far less shorter passes hence why so many sacks theory.

    2012 Tannehill: Sacks 2.5 or less-4--Sacks >2.5-31
    2013 Tannehill: Sacks 2.5 or less-4--Sacks >2.5-55
    2014 Tannehill: Sacks 2.5 or less 6--Sacks >2.5-40
    2015 Tannehill: Sacks 2.5 or less 11--Sacks >2.5-34
    2016 Tannehill: Sacks 2.5 or less 6--Sacks >2.5-23
    2018 Tannehill: Sacks 2.5 or less 11--Sacks >2.5-24
    2019 Tannehill: Sacks 2.5 or less 8--Sacks >2.5--23

    So if the primary receiver is running a longer route the dump off guy is irrelevant? Of course there is a reason to come off that route it has many names, pocket awareness, sensing pressure, having an internal clock, not staring down your WR until you get killed, feeling the pass rush coming. These are thing NFL QB's are supposed to do. You're not supposed to just stare at your primary target and be oblivious to what's going on around you come on man.

    Why am I worried about who took more sacks? That's what we're talking about--this current conversation stems from you're reply to my post #6801.

    What was Fitz passer rating? I could just take a page out of your book and point out how Tannehill was in a much better situation, better OL, better weapons, better defense and if Fitz was in the same situation his QB rating might go up about a dozen points or more but I won't do that.

    Hmm Russell Wilson and Tannehill have had pretty bad OL their entire career, it's hard to say what Wilson would do with the 11th best pass blocking OL in the NFL since he's never had one ranked that high. Would he still be sacked as much as he is now? IMO no but I could be wrong. What we do know is that with the 11th best pass blocking OL in the NFL and the 30th fewest amount on passes thrown in the NFL Tannehill was still 2nd to worst in NFL sack%. Which is the only point I was trying to make in post #6801, Tannehill has no pocket awareness.

    I'm not saying he didn't have a great season, he did. If he has a similar type of season next year I'd even say he's a top 5 QB in the NFL. Good for him.
     
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2020
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  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Based on the above table, Tannehill's rate of sacks under 2.5 seconds after the snap in 2019 was 5.9%. His rate of sacks at 2.5 seconds after the snap and beyond was 12.6%.

    With the offensive line with the worst pass blocking win rate in the league in 2019, Ryan Fitzpatrick's rate of sacks under 2.5 seconds after the snap in 2019 was 6.2% (which I suspect is non-significantly different from Tannehill's). His rate of sacks at 2.5 seconds after the snap and beyond was 9.5%.

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FitzRy00/splits/2019/
     
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  18. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    About halfway down the following page, there is a table that includes DVOAs for 18 QBs when under no pressure, between 2012 and 2016:

    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/quarterbacks-and-pressure-2016

    Note that Tannehill is 0.5 standard deviations below the mean of the 18 QBs listed there.

    So between 2012 and 2016, when Tannehill was experiencing no pressure, he was below average in DVOA when compared to other QBs who were also experiencing no pressure.

    If his performance in Miami was so much a function of his offensive lines, then why didn't he perform better than below average at the times when his offensive lines in Miami did block well?
     
  19. Losferwords

    Losferwords Member

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    LOL the lengths the Thill fanbois go to defend him knows no bounds....
     
  20. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Let's stay away from proprietary metrics like DVOA. Same issue as with ESPN's QBR. You just don't know what they're doing.

    I'd also like to see clarification on how they come up with their pressure stats. All they say is they get it from Sports Information Solutions and ESPN, neither of which it seems like tell you how they define it (unless someone can find that info). It's really suspicious when people aren't transparent about how they create these stats so I'm even suspicious of the stats themselves. Is this just like a PFF operation except that they put a number to a subjective assessment and call it a "stat"?
     
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  21. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah on that I figured that whatever "fudge" may be in their system, if corrected, probably wouldn't vault Tannehill from 0.5 standard deviations below the mean in performance with no pressure to what would be expected if his performance had truly been a function of the offensive line.
     
  22. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL. So, Wilson is pocket aware when he takes long sacks and Tannehill is not pocket aware when he does the same? Right.... LOL.

    That's not how passing works. When the primary guy is the proper read, you don't panic and dump it off before the route has a chance to complete because you're scared to be sacked.

    It was also much lower than Tannehill's in an equally crappy situation.

    Of course you would think no, he's not Tannehill......

    And Tannehill had the 2nd highest TD % (behind only Lamar Jackson) and the third highest differential between TD % and sack %, behind only Drees and Lamar Jackson. And league best in CPOE, league best in AY/A. etc. etc. etc.

    He was not just standing in the pocket clueless. He was killing it all over the field. The pocket awareness knock is crap.

    And he is top 6 - 10 right now. Right where I predicted when he was getting screwed over in Miami.
     
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2020
  23. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Number of passes thrown is accounted for in sack %. That is irrelevant in this discussion.

    Here is a simple question. What should the Titans have been willing to give up for Tannehill to have a lower sack %? Lower YPA? Lower TD%? Lower completion %? Lower CPOE? What?

    That decision to abandon the play and check down does not come for free. You have no idea how many longer completions or TDs would have been lost in order to avoid the sacks. I could point you to numerous plays where Tannehill stands in to the last possible second, gets the pass off just before gettin crushed and completes it, often for big plays. How about the 91 yard TD to AJ Brown? Should he have sensed the guy who was going to smack him and check it down? Throw it away?

    What you fail to understand is that you cannot know in advance which drop back results in a sack and which results in the 91 yard TD. All you can do is play the system and track whether you are winning enough plays to win games. IMO, the stats are clear. The passing offense was terrific.
     
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  24. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    This

    All day This

    Send that message to guy...
     
  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Here are z-scores from 2019 for EPA per play for pass attempts under pressure, for players with at least 40 attempts of that nature (Tannehill had 50):

    Patrick Mahomes 1.88
    Derek Carr 1.79
    Drew Brees 1.34
    Matt Ryan 1.23
    Lamar Jackson 1.23
    Jimmy Garoppolo 1.09
    Aaron Rodgers 0.84
    Dak Prescott 0.84
    Russell Wilson 0.80
    Baker Mayfield 0.65
    Ryan Tannehill 0.63
    Kirk Cousins 0.52
    Deshaun Watson 0.49
    Matthew Stafford 0.43
    Joe Flacco 0.41
    Philip Rivers 0.36
    Daniel Jones 0.23
    Carson Wentz 0.12
    Ryan Fitzpatrick 0.00
    Kyler Murray -0.09
    Case Keenum -0.10
    Sam Darnold -0.35
    Dwayne Haskins -0.36
    Jared Goff -0.40
    Kyle Allen -0.64
    Tom Brady -0.92
    Gardner Minshew -0.94
    Jacoby Brissett -1.09
    Mitchell Trubisky -1.15
    Devlin Hodges -1.28
    Mason Rudolph -1.34
    Josh Allen -1.40
    Andy Dalton -1.51
    Jameis Winston -1.57
    David Blough -1.76
     
  26. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    z-scores for EPA per play for passing under pressure, from the years 2015 to 2018, for players with 40 or more season attempts (z-scores derived from the whole sample):

    2015 Drew Brees 2.42
    2017 Tom Brady 2.38
    2015 Blaine Gabbert 2.37
    2017 Jimmy Garoppolo 2.13
    2018 Patrick Mahomes 2.09
    2016 Cody Kessler 1.85
    2015 Marcus Mariota 1.77
    2018 Brock Osweiler 1.73
    2018 Matt Ryan 1.65
    2016 Aaron Rodgers 1.65
    2015 Ben Roethlisberger 1.52
    2017 Carson Wentz 1.48
    2016 Sam Bradford 1.45
    2018 Mitchell Trubisky 1.30
    2016 Drew Brees 1.23
    2015 Tyrod Taylor 1.22
    2018 Jameis Winston 1.22
    2018 Carson Wentz 1.19
    2016 Josh McCown 1.16
    2017 Philip Rivers 1.10
    2015 Josh McCown 1.10
    2015 Blake Bortles 1.02
    2018 Nick Foles 0.98
    2016 Matt Ryan 0.98
    2018 Deshaun Watson 0.94
    2015 Teddy Bridgewater 0.92
    2016 Tom Brady 0.91
    2017 Case Keenum 0.87
    2018 Philip Rivers 0.86
    2016 Andrew Luck 0.79
    2018 Marcus Mariota 0.79
    2018 Ryan Fitzpatrick 0.73
    2018 Dak Prescott 0.72
    2015 Tom Brady 0.70
    2018 Kirk Cousins 0.67
    2018 Drew Brees 0.66
    2018 Andrew Luck 0.63
    2015 Russell Wilson 0.63
    2016 Matthew Stafford 0.62
    2015 Carson Palmer 0.61
    2016 Derek Carr 0.57
    2015 Jay Cutler 0.56
    2016 Jameis Winston 0.56
    2018 Lamar Jackson 0.55
    2015 Ryan Fitzpatrick 0.55
    2015 Ryan Tannehill 0.49
    2017 Russell Wilson 0.46
    2017 Tyrod Taylor 0.46
    2017 Matt Ryan 0.42
    2018 Russell Wilson 0.41
    2018 Andy Dalton 0.38
    2017 Jacoby Brissett 0.37
    2018 Cody Kessler 0.36
    2018 Matthew Stafford 0.33
    2015 Philip Rivers 0.33
    2017 Aaron Rodgers 0.33
    2017 Carson Palmer 0.30
    2015 Eli Manning 0.30
    2016 Kirk Cousins 0.29
    2017 Jameis Winston 0.29
    2017 Jared Goff 0.26
    2016 Dak Prescott 0.25
    2016 Ben Roethlisberger 0.24
    2017 Ben Roethlisberger 0.22
    2017 Ryan Fitzpatrick 0.21
    2018 Jeff Driskel 0.19
    2015 Matt Ryan 0.13
    2016 Jay Cutler 0.11
    2017 Drew Brees 0.07
    2017 Alex Smith 0.07
    2016 Russell Wilson 0.06
    2018 Baker Mayfield 0.02
    2016 Andy Dalton 0.00
    2015 Andy Dalton -0.02
    2015 Johnny Manziel -0.02
    2017 Kirk Cousins -0.03
    2015 Alex Smith -0.05
    2017 Jay Cutler -0.06
    2015 Matthew Stafford -0.09
    2018 Case Keenum -0.10
    2016 Tyrod Taylor -0.11
    2015 Jameis Winston -0.11
    2017 Marcus Mariota -0.11
    2018 Ben Roethlisberger -0.14
    2016 Colin Kaepernick -0.15
    2017 Brian Hoyer -0.15
    2018 Jared Goff -0.17
    2016 Brian Hoyer -0.23
    2018 Cam Newton -0.23
    2016 Philip Rivers -0.25
    2017 Blake Bortles -0.25
    2016 Trevor Siemian -0.29
    2017 Matthew Stafford -0.30
    2016 Eli Manning -0.33
    2018 Aaron Rodgers -0.35
    2015 Cam Newton -0.35
    2016 Carson Palmer -0.35
    2016 Jared Goff -0.38
    2017 Josh McCown -0.41
    2018 Eli Manning -0.42
    2017 Tom Savage -0.43
    2017 Dak Prescott -0.47
    2018 Blake Bortles -0.50
    2017 Deshaun Watson -0.50
    2015 Sam Bradford -0.52
    2015 Aaron Rodgers -0.54
    2017 Eli Manning -0.55
    2016 Ryan Tannehill -0.55
    2018 Nick Mullens -0.55
    2016 Carson Wentz -0.56
    2017 Cam Newton -0.56
    2018 Josh Allen -0.57
    2018 Tom Brady -0.60
    2017 Nick Foles -0.62
    2016 Joe Flacco -0.63
    2018 Ryan Tannehill -0.64
    2017 Drew Stanton -0.66
    2017 Matt Moore -0.67
    2017 Mitchell Trubisky -0.72
    2017 C.J. Beathard -0.77
    2017 Derek Carr -0.82
    2018 Joe Flacco -0.85
    2016 Alex Smith -0.85
    2018 Derek Carr -0.86
    2016 Marcus Mariota -0.88
    2017 Andy Dalton -0.93
    2016 Cam Newton -0.99
    2017 Trevor Siemian -1.00
    2015 Kirk Cousins -1.01
    2016 Blake Bortles -1.06
    2015 Derek Carr -1.15
    2017 Joe Flacco -1.17
    2016 Case Keenum -1.22
    2015 Brock Osweiler -1.27
    2016 Brock Osweiler -1.29
    2018 C.J. Beathard -1.40
    2017 Mike Glennon -1.43
    2015 Andrew Luck -1.50
    2017 Brock Osweiler -1.50
    2018 Sam Darnold -1.54
    2015 Nick Foles -1.55
    2018 Josh Rosen -1.57
    2016 Ryan Fitzpatrick -1.61
    2015 Peyton Manning -1.78
    2015 Joe Flacco -1.83
    2017 DeShone Kizer -1.84
    2017 Brett Hundley -1.85
    2018 Alex Smith -1.90
    2016 Matt Barkley -2.69
    2015 Colin Kaepernick -2.79
     
  27. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    How many here have considered that Tannehill was learning to be a better QB after Gase arrived, then was out for 2 1/2 years with injuries. Could it be that Tannehill was able to apply what he had learned in his last three years here to great effect with the Titans.

    I think if you want to rate Tannehills play last year, it has to be done without the clouded judgements of the past, but on his performance for each complete game he played for the Titans.

    I know the Titans valued his play enough to renegotiate his contract for more years and with more money for him. That has to count more then some previous teams fans opinions; even mine!
     
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  28. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    [/QUOTE]

    One takes a long sack because he's scrambling around after the OL breaks down and unfortunately you can't scramble forever hence he gets sacked. We've all seen Tannehill for years and manipulating the pocket or scrambling to buy time was not something he ever did at least not with any consistency. Go look at how often Wilson scrambles compared to Tannehill I'd post the numbers but why bother.

    Thats not how passing works? So you're NOT supposed to sense pressure/have an internal clock/feel the pass rush? Is that what you're going with? So sensing pressure and having pocket awareness is now called panicking? Did you go to the Ryan Tannehill school for pocket awareness?

    Tannehill has never been on a roster this void of talent LOL at equally crappy. Fitzpatrick's leading rusher had 243 yds and it was Fitzpatrick.

    No different then of course you think Tannehill is not responsible for the sacks and it's the OL or receivers running deep routes. It CANNOT be Tannehill thats impossible. Surely it must be because he's throwing more intermediate passes and less shorter passes...wait I debunked that. Well surely it was because he was getting sacked more often in Miami in <2.5 seconds and in Tennessee it was the exact opposite...oh wait wrong there too.

    Yes he had a great season I agree I acknowledged it in my previous post. I guess brining up his TD%, A/Y, CPOE, etc etc is better than offering up another incorrect theory as to why he was 2nd to last in sack%. No theory needed Ryan Tannehill with the right pieces is going to play well or in 2019's case great but no matter how good those pieces are he is never going to be great in pocket awareness. You take the good with the bad, I'd definitely gamble on him if I was Tennessee but I'd also realize that pocket awareness might rear its head at a most inopportune time ie crunch time in the playoffs but I'd gamble all the same because it's better than being stuck with Marcus Mariota.
     
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  29. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You mean like here?

    At the start of the fourth quarter of Tennessee's playoff game with Kansas City, the Chiefs were ahead 21-17 and were 89% likely to win the game. Here are the plays involving Ryan Tannehill from that point on:

    Ryan Tannehill pass complete short right to Corey Davis for 15 yards (tackle by Bashaud Breeland)
    Ryan Tannehill pass complete short right to Derrick Henry for -2 yards (tackle by Damien Wilson)
    Ryan Tannehill pass complete short middle to A.J. Brown for 5 yards (tackle by Daniel Sorensen)
    Ryan Tannehill sacked by Tanoh Kpassagnon for -8 yards
    Ryan Tannehill pass complete short left to Derrick Henry for -6 yards (tackle by Daniel Sorensen)
    Ryan Tannehill pass incomplete short right intended for Corey Davis (defended by Bashaud Breeland) (defended by Daniel Sorensen)
    Ryan Tannehill pass complete short left to Jonnu Smith for 8 yards (tackle by Tyrann Mathieu)
    Ryan Tannehill pass complete short right to Jonnu Smith for 8 yards (tackle by Bashaud Breeland and Rashad Fenton)
    Ryan Tannehill pass complete short right to Corey Davis for 22 yards (tackle by Daniel Sorensen)
    Ryan Tannehill sacked by Tanoh Kpassagnon for -2 yards
    Ryan Tannehill pass complete deep middle to Anthony Firkser for 22 yards, touchdown
    Ryan Tannehill left end for 6 yards (tackle by Daniel Sorensen). Penalty on Chris Jones: Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards
    Ryan Tannehill pass complete short right to Adam Humphries for 9 yards (tackle by Tyrann Mathieu)
    Ryan Tannehill pass incomplete short left intended for Adam Humphries (defended by Tanoh Kpassagnon)
    Ryan Tannehill pass incomplete short middle intended for A.J. Brown (defended by Tyrann Mathieu)
    Ryan Tannehill sacked by Frank Clark for -17 yards

    EPA per play for the above was a very low -0.21. Three sacks in one quarter.

    He had 16 plays there, and so during that period of time his performance was associated with 3.36 expected points for Kansas City.

    Is this what we'd expect from the player who led the league in passer rating in 2019, or is this what we'd expect from the guy who played for the Dolphins from 2012 to 2018?
     
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  30. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    The decision to take a sack instead of checking down also does not come free. You have no idea how many drives ended and potential points put on the board because he took the sack and didn't just dump it off. You have no idea how many drives coulda have been saved had he just dumped it off and the HB or whoever actually gained a 1st down. I could point you to numerous plays where Tannehill stands in and takes a sack, when yes he should have sensed pressure and yes he should have taken a checked it down. Was losing 212 yds (5th most in the NFL from weeks 6-17) a better trade off?

    You're pretty much implying that it's better to take the sack because there might be a chance to complete a long pass but the difference between a good QB and a great QB is KNOWING when it's worth it and making the right decision. That's a big part of playing QB making good decision and if you're 2nd to last in sack% despite having the 11th best pass blocking OL it looks like maybe you don't know when to make the right decision in terms of knowing when to take the sack, and when to dump it. Imo the stats are clear the passing offense was terrific in spite of Tannehill's pocket issues.

    I said before had he played 16 games he woulda been sacked 45 times which is on par with his 1st 5 years in Miami. He's already taken quite a beating in the early part of his career. Now at over 30 years old and having to deal with prior injuries how much longer you supposed he'll last if he keeps at this pace? It's in his best interest to not take so many sacks if he wants to play out his current contract, otherwise I wouldn't be surprised if he was cut in 2023.
     
  31. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL
     
  32. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    That's a good summary of this thread.
     
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  33. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    117.5 passer rating combined with 9.6 YPA, 8% CPOE #2 scoring offense, top red zone QB, near the top in points per drive, AFC championship game, etc etc etc. to argue anything other than the decisions made by Tannehill and the coaching staff paid off in spades is just silly. Seriously it was one of the best combinations of efficient, low turn over, but highly explosive passing games that the league has ever seen...

    but he took too many sacks...... W. T. F.......

    Two "guys" that can't get over being wrong about Tannehill......
     
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  34. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    What you're implying in that question doesn't even make sense when those variables were negatively correlated game-by-game in 2019.

    If Tannehill's sack percentage had been lower, his YPA would've been higher.
     
  35. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    ...so explosive that the team had it drop back to pass on 28% of plays -- 6.3 standard deviations (that's so extreme it's even funny to read...) below the league average -- in the first two games of the playoffs, while riding its running back instead. Then when the running back got shut down in the third game, the explosive passing game registered -0.21 EPA per play when the team needed it most.
     
  36. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    All that you said can be true in conjunction with Tannehill having pockets issues. You of all people should have no problem with me pointing out one of Tannehill's flaws seeing as how during Tannehill's tenure in Miami you made it a point to point out others flaws no matter how minor so you can prop up Tannehill. Luck had a better supporting cast and played in an easy division (ironic since Tanne is now in that very division), Wilson and his run game and defense etc.

    Well hopefully he keeps it up it would be a shame if you went into self exile on this site like you did the other, no-one else has your tenacity. Btw they had the #5 scoring offense from weeks 6-17.
     
    Last edited: Apr 10, 2020
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  37. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    What are we talking about here... half a dozen sacks? Because if he had 6 less You would be arguing he only played due to being obducted and enhanced by an alien race? ( I mean after all of this foolishness, that surely is coming next. LOL )

    So what if there is a total breakdown and there is pressure in the backfield as Tannehill gets the ball.... A mature QB could decide that the best thing to do is wrap your elbows around the football and make sure you do not do something stupid and turn it over.

    What is the amount that the Sack rate is too high to satisfy you? Out with it!!! 4th highest QB rating in the history of the NFL lead the league in yards per pass... Completed more than 70% of his passes...#1 red zone QB in football last year and ran the #2 scoring offense in football. But come on, tell us how much too high was the sack rate exactly and how did that keep Tannehill from being a top 10 QB in the NFL last year?
     
  38. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    We're talking about Tannehill having the 2nd highest sack% in the NFL despite having the 11th best pass blocking OL. We're also talking about his lack of pocket awareness...are you caught up?

    In a total breakdown yes protect the ball and take the sack, was he sacked 31 times last year because of 31 breakdowns? I doubt it so why even bring this up? Because the faithful simply can't say...Tannehill takes too many sacks and it's his fault or Tannehill struggles with pocket awareness. There's always an excuse in this case yours.

    4th highest QB rating in the history of the NFL lead the league in yards per pass... Completed more than 70% of his passes...#1 red zone QB in football last year and ran the #2 scoring offense in football AND also had the 2nd highest sack% in the NFL.

    I never said his sack% kept him from being a top 10 QB last year, hell I said if he keeps up his play he's probably top 5 but good attempt at trying to prove a point no one is arguing.

    Once more all I'm saying is he lacks pocket awareness. If you don't agree with me cool.
     
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  39. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    A few things.

    First, I had already admitted several times in this thread that Tannehill takes too many sacks. Second, I don't agree that it was the 11th best pass blocking OL. There is no one universal stat or ranking for that. Third, his average depth of target, and average time in pocket PROVES they were near the tops in the league at how aggressively they were attacking defenses through the air.

    I have held the same position on sacks since 2013. They are not all the same. I readily acknowledged that the type of sacks on Wilson and Tannehill in 2013 were different, despite the similar sack %. This year, they were the same. You are the one that needs to have different rules for different players to make your case. Holding on to the ball shows a lack of pocket awareness for one and good pocket awareness for the other? Please.

    Finally, I'm sure the truth lies in the middle. The sack rate was partially driven by scheme and partially due to Tannehill sometimes holding on to the ball too long. Here is a case where only film analysis can give the breakdown. In the cases where he did hang on to the ball too long, I'm sure we will disagree to the extent that it was due to pocket awareness and due to a willingness to stand in and make plays.
     
    Last edited: Apr 10, 2020
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  40. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Some more interesting findings here.

    Again here are the correlations between passer rating and yards per rush in the running game, game-by-game, for the 32 NFL teams in 2019:

    0.27
    0.27
    0.46
    -0.31
    -0.07
    -0.01
    -0.40
    -0.18
    0.16
    0.17
    -0.19
    -0.42
    -0.23
    -0.15
    0.13
    -0.18
    0.18
    -0.02
    -0.07
    -0.36
    -0.05
    0.00
    0.13
    -0.17
    -0.20
    0.48
    -0.07
    -0.22
    0.41
    -0.46
    -0.45
    -0.30

    Now consider, again, that the correlation between Tannehill's passer rating and Derrick Henry's number of yards per rush, game-by-game, in 2019 was 0.64, which is by far the highest in the league and 2.7 standard deviations above the 2019 league average.

    Additionally, if we exclude the Denver game because Tannehill didn't start the game and Henry had a mere four carries during Tannehill's time in the game, that correlation increases to a whopping 0.78, which is 3.2 standard deviations above the 2019 league average.

    Here's what's interesting. There are two other QBs in recent history who posted season passer ratings well above their career averages and at or near the top of the league -- Andy Dalton in 2015 and Nick Foles in 2013.

    In 2015 Andy Dalton posted a season passer rating of 106.2, 16 points above the league average of 90.2 that year.

    In 2013 Nick Foles posted a passer rating of 119.2, 33.2 points above the league average of 86 that year.

    Neither player has come anywhere close to those figures during any other season of his career.

    In 2015 the correlation between Dalton's passer rating and the Bengals' yards per rush, game-by-game, was 0.47. That would've been 2.04 standard deviations above the league average in 2019.

    In 2013 the correlation between Foles's passer rating and the Eagles' yards per rush, game-by-game, was 0.34. That would've been 1.5 standard deviations above the league average in 2019.

    Previously in Tannehill's career (88 games with the Dolphins), the correlation between his passer rating and the Dolphins' yards per rush, game-by-game, was a mere 0.15. So obviously 2019 was an outlier for him.

    Likewise, elsewhere in Dalton's career (77 games, before and after 2015), the correlation between his passer rating and his team's yards per rush, game-by-game, is a mere 0.05. 2015 was an outlier for him.

    Elsewhere in Foles's career (56 games started, before and after 2013), the correlation between his passer rating and his team's yards per rush, game-by-game, is a mere 0.06. 2013 was an outlier for him.

    So here we have three different QBs, all of whom posted one season passer rating that was extremely different from their career norms, and all of whom experienced at the same time very strong correlations between their performances and those of their running games, when compared to their norms in that regard.

    Does this mean Tannehill, like Dalton and Foles, will have only one season of his career in which his passer rating is extremely high? No, but it should probably help determine how much money you'd want to bet on his replicating his performance in that area in the future.
     
    Last edited: Apr 10, 2020

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