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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    2nd in the league in TD % with 7.7% and that number INCREASED in the playoffs to 8.3%, which was SECOND HIGHEST in the playoffs.

    Wild card game:
    IAY - 10 (2nd ranked)
    Aggressiveness % - 26.7 (1st ranked)

    Divisional round:
    IAY - 8.9 (1st ranked)
    Aggressiveness % - 19.4 (1st ranked)
     
    Hiruma78, Irishman and resnor like this.
  2. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I'll just leave these here:

    upload_2020-4-10_9-51-19.png

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Nobody's arguing that Tannehill doesn't play well when you limit his percentage of pass dropbacks to an absurdly low 6.3 standard deviations below the league norm (i.e., the first two rounds of the 2019 playoffs).

    What I'm arguing, rather, is that his regular season passer rating in 2019 was largely a function of exactly that limitation in his performance volume!
     
  4. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You're looking at the limiting as being because you believe Tannehill can't handle it. Others look at it as a team playing balanced football.
     
  5. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The question is, does the team have to play extremely balanced football to keep Tannehill out of high-volume games, in which he's played historically very poorly.

    There are teams that don't have to do that, because their quarterbacks don't play historically anywhere near as poorly as Tannehill in high-volume passing games. They can play unbalanced football and still get good performances out of their quarterbacks.

    This is why what we're talking about here is a scenario in 2019 in which the stars aligned, allowing Tannehill to play precisely the kind of game that gets the most out of him.

    The question is, how likely is the team to get the stars to align like that again, and so will he be like Andy Dalton and Nick Foles and have just one season of his career like 2019, or will there be more?
     
  6. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    And I disagree. So great.
     
  7. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    No
     
  8. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Another similarity among Tannehill in 2019, Dalton in 2015, and Foles in 2013, similar to the above -- all three played incomplete seasons. Tannehill started 10 games and played in 11 (he did nothing but kneel-downs in another game), Dalton started and played in 13, and Foles started 10 and played in 13.
     
  9. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Irrelevant
     
  10. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    Dude I am not going to sit here and even pretend like I read 173 pages of this crapfest. I read back 3 pages from when I started posting. Come on dude you talk often about people moving the goalpost or staying consistent with what they say. You have throughout the years referenced OL rankings when making your point in how awful Tannehill had it in Miami. Doesn't the fact the Titans were able to run deep routes and Tannehill was able to hold on to the ball to let those plays develop kinda insinuate that the Titans OL was pretty good at pass blocking? I can't imagine on offense like that working without a good OL.

    Yes and I posted the average depth of the top 7 QB's some of whom had significantly worse OL's and Tannehill somehow still took more sacks which PROVES its a Tannehill issue moreso than an OL issue IMO.

    You're right the truth probably does lie in the middle somewhere. I'd like to think I'm objective but if you told me my subconscious made up it's mind on Tannehill back in 2018 I wouldn't argue with you. I'm biased and so are you, the only people who maybe aren't are Titan fans, and the only opinion that truly matters is the Titans coaches and GM.

    To me the part I can't get over is a guy had issues with sacks in his time with a bad team with a bad OL. The guy goes to another team with a significantly better OL. Even if you don't want to believe they are 11th in pass blocking they are still the best OL he's ever had in his career and those sack issues don't go away. Not only did they not go away he had the 2nd worst sack% of his career, that's not even a slight improvement. If the same issues you had on team A follow you to team B even though team B has a better roster than the issues lie with you imo. Does that mean he can't be great and have success? Nope, he very much can.
     
  11. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Not sure how else I can explain it to you. Not all sacks are the same. You already agree with that since you don't consider Wilson to have a sack problem. Wilson has a HIGHER career sack % than Tannehill. Does he have bad pocket presence? It is hilarious that you can use stats to blame Tannehill then use the same stats and not blame Wilson.
     
  12. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    Yeah dude I get it not all sacks are the same but when you watch a player from his 1st snap until his last day with your team. Then continue watching him in at least 7 games with his new team you tend to notice that a lot of his sacks are the same. Well if Seattle ever fixes the OL and they give Wilson a borderline top 10 pass blocking line and he continues racking up the sacks at his usual pace than we'll know for sure that Wilson was the issue. It's not just using stats to blame Tanne and not blame Wilson...I've seen them both play, I've seen the difference in the context of their sacks.

    Yeah I guess about as funny as you using OL rankings to prove your point for years but now not disagreeing with them because they don't line up with what you want to believe.
     
    Last edited: Apr 10, 2020
  13. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    From 2018:

    upload_2020-4-10_12-49-16.png
    8TH best pass blocking OL.

    Russell Wilson sack % - 10.7%. HIGHEST OF HIS CAREER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    You were asking?????

    We done now?
     
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  14. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    This is found league-wide:

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index3801.html?p=4395

    This is why pass block win rate, and not sacks, is probably the best statistic for measuring offensive line play at the present time. Problem is, there is very little variation across the league pass in block win rate (the sixth-best team in the league isn't even a standard deviation better than the sixteenth-best team, for example), and the statistic itself in 2019 accounted for only a very small percentage of the variance in common passing game statistics across the league:

    Passer rating: 7.8%
    PFF Ratings: 1.8%
    QBR: 1.2%
    CPOE: 1.4%

    All of this stands to reason, because the league is geared toward parity among teams, and the larger the unit on the field (the offensive line's being the largest -- five players), the more parity there will be among teams (and therefore the less variation) in those units across the league.
     
    Last edited: Apr 10, 2020
  15. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Not that we have SETTLED that, let me show you a few other points. In 2018, Wilson had a 110.9 passer rating (highest of his career), 8.1 YPA (very good, just below his career best), 35 passing TDs (highest of his career), 8.2% TD % (highest of his career), and a very low INT % of 1.6% (near a career low).

    The 51 sacks were the highest of his career despite having the 8th best pass blocking OL.

    Given the style of offense they play, THIS IS NOT THE LEAST BIT SURPRISING. IMO, it has been very successful for his whole career.
     
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  16. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    So you don't agree that the Titans were 11tth in pass blocking essentially saying the OL ranking are irrelevant because in YOUR WORDS "there's no universal stat or RANKING for that". Yet here you are using a ranking because it works in your favor to prove your point. Is that what's really going on here?? LMAO! Wow the hypocrisy. Russel Wilson sack% last year was 8.5% BTW so incorrect AGAIN kinda like when you said the Titans had the 2nd best offense when they had the 5th. Check your sources man.
     
  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I doubt Seattle's offensive line that year was even a standard deviation better than it was in its worst year with Wilson.

    What's likely the case is that Wilson has had pass block win rates by his offensive lines that aren't significantly different from each other across his career.

    Regardless, pass block win rate isn't strongly associated with statistics commonly attributed to quarterbacks, so it doesn't matter. Quarterbacks across the league are performing independently of their offensive lines, at least in terms of the statistics we have that are commonly attributed to both.
     
  18. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Go back to the first line of the post............

    FROM 2018:

    upload_2020-4-10_13-10-55.png

    Give it up, you lost this argument.
     
  19. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    Oh my mistake it was 10.7%. LOL I lost because this argument because you used a ranking even though in your words "there's no universal stat or RANKING for that" in reference to OL's. Yet you are using a ranking to prove your point....do you not see it?? No of course you do you're a smart guy you just don't want to see it.
     
  20. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    Which is it man? Let me guess you only agree with rankings when it works in your favor? Too funny!! Now let's watch the back pedal. Let me take a page out of your book...I don't agree with the 8th best pass blocking, I dont think there is a universal ranking for that.
     
  21. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Here's another issue that pertains to the above:

    In 2019 the percentage of the variance in sack rate, team-by-team, associated with pass block win rate was a mere 3.2%.

    So quarterbacks are functioning independently from their offensive lines with regard to not only passing statistics, but sack rates as well.

    It's probably about time to stop using statistics to infer anything about the relationship between offensive lines and quarterbacks. They function almost completely independently of each other, at least with regard to what we are measuring statistically at the present time.
     
  22. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    You convinced me you can rank OLs. Now.....

    Well if Seattle ever fixes the OL and they give Wilson a borderline top 10 pass blocking line and he continues racking up the sacks at his usual pace than we'll know for sure that Wilson was the issue.

    PBWR is a way to rank pass blocking by the OL and....

    upload_2020-4-10_13-22-34.png

    and

    upload_2020-4-10_13-23-44.png

    So........ Do we know for sure that Wilson is the issue? A simple yes or no will be sufficient. No need to deflect.
     
  23. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    To someone who doesn't understand the game, this would make sense.
     
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  24. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Then there is this from 2018:

    https://www.espn.com/nfl/blogs/insi...-russell-wilson-new-stat-shows-proof-2018-nfl

    What if we told you that wasn't actually the case? Yes, Aaron Donald & Co. will likely cause problems for Seattle, but according to analysis based on new player tracking information, the much-maligned Seahawks offensive line might actually be decent at pass blocking -- and it might not have been bad last season, either. It might just be an unfair victim of more traditional statistics.

    BTW, I agree with their analysis but disagree with their conclusion. Sacks are just one part of a very complicated situation. Every team is trying balance all the things that can happen on a passing play - Completion for a TD, completion for a first down, completion, incompletion (including throw aways), interception, and a sack.

    Passing game scheme, number of blockers, number of pass rushers, down and distance, score, how your defense is playing, how your offense is playing, time left in game, etc, etc, etc, all influence how a team balances the potential outcomes.
     
    Last edited: Apr 10, 2020
  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Of course Wilson is the issue, because he senses pressure early, escapes it early, avoids sacks, and extends plays, thereby making sacks more likely as defensive players have more time to defeat the players blocking them before Wilson has passed the ball.

    Tannehill on the other hand is oblivious to pressure and starts moving too late when it arrives, making sacks unavoidable.

    They have high sack rates for different reasons, and neither of them are offensive line-related.

    I'll bet Wilson's time to throw the ball has been significantly longer than Tannehill's throughout his career.
     
  26. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    From the above article:

     
  27. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    It's interesting how in almost every retort of that nature you provide, there is no accompanying enlightenment about the game.
     
  28. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    All while playing behind the OL with the 8th best PBWR............................
     
  29. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I've tried to explain things to you many times over the years. Didn't work. Waste of time.
     
  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The eighth-best offensive line in PBWR is no better than the 18th-best one.

    The article you linked above explains Wilson's sack rates, and it has nothing to do with his offensive lines.
     
  31. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    No ****...... that has been my point for years. Tannehill was near the top in that this year, but I'm sure it will be different and indicative of some flaw with Tannehill.... LOL.
     
  32. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    But the thing is you convinced me there is no universal stat or ranking for OL and just like you said about the the Titans ranking 11th...I don't agree with the 8th best pass blocking. See how that works? Neither of us apparently agree with the rankings.

    Here's the thing you used whatever website you found your ranking and I used PFF. They are both different rankings but I use pff for mostly everything and I'm pretty sure you went out of your to find a ranking to fit your narrative.

    The second you said you don't agree with the 11th best ranking and stated there is no universal stat or ranking for OL you gave up the right to use any kind of OL ranking in this argument. To try and use one now for sole purpose of pushing your narrative is severely hypocritical and disingenuous. Don't be that guy.
     
  33. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Correlation between pass block win rate and expected points contributed by the passing offense across the league in 2019:

    0.20

    4% of the variance in expected points contributed by the passing offense across the league is explained by pass block win rate. 96% of it isn't.
     
  34. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    So, no OL rankings? Good. The Titans OL sucked at pass blocking in 2019 and Tannehill saved them.

    BTW, it would be a much better look for you if you just admitted that you had no idea that in 2018 Seattle had a decent pass blocking line and Wilson still took a bunch of sacks. It is clear that is the truth.
     
  35. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    Yes you've already stated you don't agree with the rankings, but thanks for reiterating I guess. But hey just in case you were wondering here's the ranking from the same site you got your information from. I assume since you don't agree with them being 11th by PFF you certainly don't agree with them being 4th on your preferred website.

    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...s-rushing-rankings-2019-pbwr-prwr-leaderboard

    Team Pass Block Win Rate
    1. Green Bay Packers, 72%
    2. Baltimore Ravens, 69%
    3. Indianapolis Colts, 65%
    4. Tennessee Titans, 63%
     
  36. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Too late...... they sucked and Tannehill's spectacular season is all because of him.
     
  37. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That's accurate.

    In 2019 Tannehill was 1.07 standard deviations above the league average in time to throw (indicating taking longer to throw).
    In 2018 he was 0.12 standard deviations above it.
    In 2016 he was 0.26 standard deviations below it.

    So Tannehill indeed took more time to throw the ball in 2019.
     
  38. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    The second you used rankings for the sole purpose of trying to prove a point after stating there's no universal ranking it was too late. Game set match. It was fun. I'll see you in September. Well hopefully September if the season starts on time.
     
  39. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Wow, crazy......

    2019 - 9.8% sack rate, taking longer to throw
    2018 - 11.3% sack rate, taking less time to throw

    What ever could be happening. After all, the OL has nothing to do with it.......
     
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  40. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    The second you claimed that Seattle never had a good line, I knew you didn't know what you were talking about.
     

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