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Caution, fair warning.

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by my 2 cents, Apr 7, 2020.

  1. my 2 cents

    my 2 cents Well-Known Member

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    As the draft approaches, and we start to share our opinions and discuss players, I have been a big "draft guy" for a long time....and would warn everyone....DON'T fall in love with a player.....there is a lot that goes into a guy being a good pick or bad pick and we are not responsible for assigning a value to a player at a pick.

    Again...A LOT goes into a player being a good or bad pick.....the pick value (example RT17 great pick at 35 terrible pick at 8), the situation, the opportunity, the scheme fit, the depth of the position in that particular draft (this year OT's are everywhere) the culture of the room he will enter, the path to playing time, ..the value of the position versus the pick value (i.e. a punter from SE Hawaii State at 18 is not good value...)....Mocks are useless but fun because we don't know who will slide we don't have access to interviews and we can only judge what we see on usually what is not coaches film.

    With that said you can target guys that you might have a skill set that you can fairly easily project to be under drafted or over drafted....QB's will always be overdraft and generally guards and DT's will be under-drafted. Positional depth will generally cause a guy to slide or fall. This is one reason personally In advocate taking BPA because Miami has so many holes to fill.,...generally I think this will be an offensive draft but if Kinlaw were there at 18 you think twice....

    In the end we all see and value what we WANT to see and value, but the great part is that in a couple or few years we will see how it turned out.
     
  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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  3. my 2 cents

    my 2 cents Well-Known Member

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  4. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    There's only one player in this draft who I'll be incredibly pissed if we have the chance to take him and don't, and that's Joe Burrow.
     
  5. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    I wanted to throw in a warning of my own. This might sound obvious at first, but the ramifications somehow don't seem as obvious.

    Mock drafts are not real. Mel Kiper Jr. pioneered them, and we have gone on to see every Tom, Dick, and Harry put out their own. But what happens is that these mocks seem to go on to have a life of their own.

    Invariable, we will see a guy who was in the first round fall out of it. Just take a minute to think about the verbiage "fall." How could he fall out of the first round if he was never in the first round to begin with. Just because Kiper, McShay, and Riddick said they were first round picks does not make them first round picks. In fact, the only way to be a first round pick is to be selected in the first round.

    Now, many of you are probably thinking, "Cool point, but this has no practical value." Like I was saying before, invariable some player that a lot of people mocked going early on the first day will be available in the second round. People on this board will clamor, "We gotta take player X. We would be so lucky to get this first round pick in the second round." Again, this is mock drafts seemingly "becoming real." The reality of this situation is that every team with a first round pick did not take him. The market decided that he is not a first round pick, and he never was a first round pick. What you should really be saying is, "We gotta take player X. We are so luck to get a second round pick in the second round." That doesn't have quite the ring to it, does it?

    Strength in numbers. Contrarians may argue, "But if all of these people who are seemingly experts agree, essentially they have to be right to a certain extent. Furthermore, if the players went in a different order, player X could have very well gone in the first round." I would give this response partial credit. I agree there is a certain level of butterfly effect that does occur, but I also believe that mock drafts are inherently flawed. What inevitable happens is that a false narrative breeds itself. Kiper and McShay usually start the party off with a mock draft, big board, and positional player rankings. Once they do that, the template has been created. As other people begin to make their mock, they are influenced whether consciously or subconsciously by these "template mocks." The mock community has essentially established that the first round QBs are going to be Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love, and maybe Eason. Now let's say you are making your board, and you have done your evaluations, and you have come to the conclusion that Jalen Hurts is elite. As you make your draft board, you have the Miami Dolphins select him at 5, and you actually think that is a steal because he is #1 on your big board. Just wait. You are going to get crucified. Why? Because you have a guy going in the top 5 that most people do not have going in the first round. You have deviated too far from the template, and you have lost all credibility. Suppose you try and defend your stance. What happens? People will point to other mock drafts which, remember, are not real real. They don't point talent evaluations. If nobody has Hurts going in the first round, and the Dolphins take him at 5 then he is a top 5 pick.

    Remember, mock drafts are real. Don't reference them like they are.
     
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  6. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I see what you are saying, but I dont fully agree with the logic.

    EJ Manual was never a first round talent, which is what people are speaking of in mock drafts, not that they are literal first round picks. So regardless of his actual selection spot, most people did not consider him a first round QB and he was a reach.

    So what they are actually saying is that first round talent has fallen to a round it normally wouldnt usually be available in. There are many reasons this could happen.

    Maybe a couple teams made really bad reach picks due to team need, causing more talented players to drop.

    Maybe there are more than 32 guys with the upside of what would be considered a first rounder other years.

    So in other words, we are talking about perceived talent not using the term literally.
     
  7. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    It would be interesting to look at the top 5 "experts" and their mock drafts over the last 5 years to see:

    1. How accurate they picked where a player was going
    2. How accurate their assessment of the pegged top 50 guys they had actually performed.

    I know it takes a couple of years to sometimes see a players potential but #1 could be easily done.
     
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  8. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    But here is the thing. EJ Manuel was a first round talent. It was not his winning personality or the majestic feeling that he gave the GM when he locked eyes with the GM. The actual reason that he was chosen was that the GM thought that he was talented enough to be a first round pick.

    Think about this. If Manuel truly was not a first round talent, the GM could have, without fear, waited until the second round and moved up to get him early. The only reason to take him with pick number 16 is the fear that he is not gonna last much longer.

    Ultimately, he was talented enough to be selected in the first round. Would I have? Nope. Would you have? I assume not. But all it really takes is one to believe that you are talented enough, and if they do not take a player, someone else will (relatively soon).
     
  9. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    That's a great post. I have often thought that the draft boards are largely mental masturbation exercises. I've always felt that Kiper/McShay lead the charge in pumping up some player, or dropping some player, and everyone else followed right along. It's like the emperor's new clothes.
     
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  10. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    I think that the marrying of players with teams is more of a fun activity than an exercise of skill. Some of these teams have a history of doing wonky things. Half the fun is trying to guess what they will do. Heck, sometimes the teams that are known for doing the craziest of things will make a conservative pick.

    It turns into a game of dominos very quickly. Think back a few years ago when Sam Darnold was widely considered the #1 prospect. Cleveland, another one of those wild teams, went a little wonky and took Mayfield. Because of this many draft picks were messed up in people's mock drafts. Does that make them bad at assessing the draft? Probably not. You thought what most people thought. Let's say Mary Kay Cabot released a mock with Mayfield going #1. Does that mean she is exceptional at draft evaluation? Hardly. It is likely that she had inside knowledge of one team, and was able to make one really good guess.
     
  11. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    I would not say Ryan Tannehill was a bad draft pick at all.

    He was on a **** team, with **** coaches.

    By the time he was 25 in his third NFL season he was throwing for 4000+ yards and had a QB rating of what 92... more than 2 touchdowns for every pick... He was one of the better young QB's in football... and he did it on a bad team.

    If whoever we pick by their third season has a QB rating over 92 throws almost 30 touchdowns has over 4000 yards... We will not consider them a terrible draft pick... Be it Tua, Burrow, or whoever.... Even if they are a first round pick

    If the QB you pick develops and turns into an above average Starting QB they were worth the first round pick.
     
  12. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    With mock drafts, I think the big problem is that it represents ne person’s wishful thinking. The person making the mock makes an assessment of what he perceives the team needs to be and then fits the player he assesses to fit that need to the team.

    As for drafting generally I want to see three things on a player’s highlight reel
    1) defeating opponents physically - being faster and stronger
    2) defeating opponents mentally - being more intelligent, more determined, more disciplined.
    3j defeating opponents technically - being able to succeed through a variety techniques.
    If one of these areas is missing on the highlight reel it is a big red flag for me. For example Ted Ginn’s college highlight reel didn’t have any contested catches in it. Dion Jordan’s highlight reel didn’t have any plays where he was able to get through a blocker to make a play, Mike Hull highlight reel showed him getting beaten to the corner by college RBs.
    I make no claims to be able to understand the nuance or demands of positional play at the college level, let alone the NFL. However, if a player can’t defeat opponents physically, mentally or technically at the college level then it’s certain they won’t be able to at the NFL level.
     
  13. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    The Ted Ginn pick was terrible. Mike Hull was a free player. ( Undrafted free agent...) A hard hitting linebacker that was solid against the Run. He was not a first-round pick... He was a good player on special teams and was able to get on the field spot starting... Unfortunately he got hurt and was never able to physically recover... but not a terrible player or anything. As long as you do not severely overdraft it is okay for a player to have some holes in their game... The rosters are huge on an NFL team. Plenty of places for guys that are smart, hard-working, and can lay the lumber.
     
  14. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Slightly left of center
    I kinda feel the same way about Derrick Brown.
     
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  15. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    A lot of people talked Mike Hull up as an opening day starter at MLB when we signed him, which tells you more about our neglect of the LB position at that time. It was obvious to me after watching his highlight film that he’d struggle to be more than a contributor on special teams. He was never athletic enough to make it as a starter or even a regular backup in the big boys game. So we wasted a roster spot on someone who never was going to make it.
     
  16. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Pauly

    At worst Hull was a special teams monster and a decent depth player at linebacker who could come in and stuff the run
     
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  17. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    On an individual level you are 100% right, someone did think his talent warranted a first round pick. I personally believe that is because QB is a position than gets overdrafted due to the importance.

    So let's phrase it this way...certain players have a consensus first round talent. Doesnt mean they will succeed, but when a guy is a consensus top 15 pick and he falls to #34 or something, to me that is falling.

    The draft is tricky. Talent alone isnt what gets you taken. Certain positions get set aside while others get overdrafted. Heck, sometimes it's off field issues or character concerns that do it.

    Regardless of whether we want to label them "first round" talents, I dont think anyone disagrees that players more talented than others get drafted later.
     
  18. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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  19. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    Flat B. I am just not as high on Tua as the rest of this board. I do think the rest of the picks are good players. I think if you spend an additional 1st to go get Tua, you forego taking a RB early.
     
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  20. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Same for me as well, but I will be happy if we take Tua at #5 because it means we didn't trade up to take him at #2 or 3. That's the doomsday scenario for me...spending multiple 1st rounders on a guy who may not have longevity in the league. So if we spend one pick on Tua I'm satisfied with it...and I do like the other selections in that mock.

    Edit- I just saw Tua was picked 3rd instead of 5th...and that changes everything. I hate that draft board!
     
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  21. my 2 cents

    my 2 cents Well-Known Member

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  22. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Pretty solid imo, though ideally we sit at 5 and take whomever falls to us. All depends on how much Grier and Flores really value the top QBs. They get the benefit of the doubt for the moment.
     
  23. M1NDCRlME

    M1NDCRlME Fear The Spear

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    While I agree with your general position I think you could have chosen somebody other than EJ to use for your example.
    I’m an FSU guy and I watched this clown’s entire career at FSU. There so times where he threw some garbage that never should’ve been thrown and id sit there and wonder WTF he thought he saw. I’m not sure he knew what he thought he saw. He was a product of the talent around him, those WRs and RBs made him look way better than he actually was. He’s a nice guy who had a decent arm, that’s the best thing I can say about him. When Buffalo picked him I laughed my *** off because I knew that they had made a huge mistake.

    EDIT- After typing all of this out I realized that you did in fact pick the perfect example to use.
     
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  24. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I would grab myself by my hair and RIP it out. That draft is absolutely terrible IMO and the only one I like is Isaiah Wilson, who is a prototypical RT prospect.

    Josh Jones is fine, but I dont see him as a #18 overall talent either.

    Trading up for Tua is the absolute worst thing we can do. If we are trading up we may as well go all in and aim for Burrow, but I dont want that either.

    Edit: Most of the negative is from the trade up. If we stood at #5 and took Tua I'd be more forgiving.
     
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2020
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  25. my 2 cents

    my 2 cents Well-Known Member

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    I went back through and looked at some mocks and I just think you either have to trade back up from 18 if you want a tackle and don't take him at 5 or you have to go another position at 18 either DB or WR for two opposite reason.....lack of depth at DB when you get down the line or the quality depth at wR at the top will push one one down........you might have one spec idic guy that slides and you can get him there ...might be Kinlaw the way the board seems to be lining up two weeks out...but also could be a lot of misinformation out there.
     
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  26. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    I am starting my want list for picks #18 and #26. As 2 cents pointed out, I am not trying to get my heart set on anyone, but it's a little slow right now, so I am letting myself dream a little bit while still being realistic... How about you?

    18) Austin Jackson (LT): We need a LT and are sort of forced to pull the trigger here. Personally, I would prefer Becton, but he might be too rich for our blood. If we were able to trade up a little bit to get him I would be ecstatic!

    https://www.nfl.com/prospects/austin-jackson?id=32194a41-4304-1754-a4d4-5902e423feaa

    26a)Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR): He is my first choice if his injury history pans out. He has a big range from floor to ceiling, but I am confident that our WR coaches can get the best out of him.

    https://www.nfl.com/prospects/laviska-shenault jr.?id=32195348-4545-8893-4e8b-5724302de088

    26b) Tee Higgins (WR): Another big guy for our passing attack (and insurance for Parker). He has some drop issues, but I am confident they can be corrected.

    https://www.nfl.com/prospects/tamurice-higgins?id=32194849-4738-7791-9f89-d556c4b59b9a
     
  27. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

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    Mel Kiper's Brady Quinn rant comes to mind.
     
  28. M1NDCRlME

    M1NDCRlME Fear The Spear

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    Kiper is an assclown. Always has been. LOL.
     
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  29. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Not a big fan of Kiper either.... I am not sure why he has a job on Television.
     
  30. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    He's not paid to be right, really. He's paid to get people to watch and does that pretty well. He's a fairly decent TV personality, and something different than the usual. It's always nice to see him go off the Jets lol.
     
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  31. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    I am not much of a fan either because I don't like how he gets all bent out of shape when a team picks a guy higher than where he has him valued. I will admit though, I may have misunderstood what he really does. I thought he evaluated and ranked all the players himself. However, recently I thought I heard him say that he is in constant communication with his sources throughout the league and uses that information to rank and adjust where he thinks the players will go. He also seems to have a very good memory. I am not sure what he remembers really has value to a non-football nerd like myself, but I can certainly appreciate it considering my memory is mostly crap.

    On the national level, I usually prefer evaluators who have actually been scouts themselves like Daniel Jeremiah or guys like Bucky Brooks who were players. On the local level, I really like Travis at miamidolphins.com. Even though he didn't play, he does his homework. The guy works his butt off and I believe he is sincere. He will call it as he sees it. His podcasts are informative and he does a great job with his interviews when he has a guest on. Around here, I appreciate everyone's input. Most everyone has more experience than me, so I know where I stand. I am on the bottom looking up. That's okay though, lol. You can learn a lot from that vantage point.
     
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2020
  32. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    In defense of Kiper, he gets a lot wrong but there is no such thing as an analyst who gets it all right.

    They are paid to point out which players have strong potential and could work out. Not because a player is a sure thing.

    A lot of people here liked Quinn too. Obviously not all.
     
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