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My Mock Draft

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by tirty8, Apr 23, 2020.

  1. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    I'm gonna just briefly type out my mock draft with a few comments on each pick. Let me know what you think.

    2020 NFL Mock Draft


    Here are the rules that I have placed upon myself. I do not forecast trades in the mock draft because things will quickly get out of hand. In a highly unpredictable setting, I choose to deal with certainties and not uncertainties. I have made my picks based on whom I think each team will take, not who they should take. I have also taken the liberty to grade the pick based on a multitude of different elements including, but not limited to: fit, value, and need. This being said, do not consider the draft grade necessarily a grade on the player. In order to help you understand my thought process, let’s consider one of the more intriguing draft prospects of last year’s draft class, Kyler Murray.

    My general thoughts on Kyler Murray are that his size really does scare me. Despite exiting the combine with similar measurables to Russell Wilson, on the field, he looks much smaller. I truly worry that he may simply be too small to play the quarterback position. That being said, I do think that Murray has great athleticism and accuracy. His ability to improvise and put touch on his passes warrants a look from front office officials.

    In my mind, Kyler Murray is all about fit. First of all, with baseball constantly looming in the background, Murray needs to go to a place where he can play sooner rather than later. In my mind, developmental places like Pittsburgh, the LA Chargers, and New England are non-starters as Murray could defect to baseball. I also think that teams that want to run more traditional offenses would be best served to shy away from Murray. In my mind, a team like the Broncos, would receive an F because of scheme/offensive philosophy issues, and a team like the Chargers would receive a D because of the distinct possibility that Murray would choose to play in California, but for the Oakland A’s.

    On the opposite side of the coin, I think teams that have creative head coaches that understand what Murray can and cannot do, could excel with Murray. Moreover, drafting Murray requires a dramaticshift in team vision. Murray is not a plug-and-play guy. A team will need to build its roster around him. Instead of a powerful offensive line, a team will need mobile, finesse offensive linemen that can be an asset to a quarterback in motion. That being said, teams with coaching ingenuity like the Patriots or the Cardinals would score as high as a B for drafting Murray.

    The best way to handle this supplement is to look beyond the draft grade, and read the blurb explaining the grade and take that into consideration when viewing the actual team that drafts the player.

    Limited Edition Quarantine Analysis

    In recent years, I have toyed around with the idea of not only analyzing the player, but the pick itself. A lot of what goes into evaluating a pick is how a team uses the draft capital that it has. So for this year, I will not only be analyzing the players but the picks as well. If I get positive feedback on this, I may go on to continue doing it, but if people think that I am being needlessly analytical, I may revert back to my old methodology.

    1. Cincinnati Bengals–Joe Burrow, QB LSU

    Pick Analysis –There are a few things that the Bengals should actually consider before selecting Burrow. First and foremost, it is no secret that the Miami Dolphins covet Burrow. Part of due diligence is seeing exactly what the offer is as the Dolphins could theoretically make a historic offer. This is coupled with the fact that the Bengals have had internal friction as to whether or not Burrow or Herbert should be the pick here. The Bengals can look no farther than their own division to see in nasty weather strong-armed quarterbacks like Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco have led to Super Bowl victories. Herbert provides this in spades; whereas, this is a weakness for Burrow.

    Player Analysis –

    In the end, I do think the Bengals ultimately make the right decision. Burrow has exceptional short to intermediate accuracy. While watching his film, I actually grew bored. Before a pass had reached its target, I already knew that the pass would be delivered on time and on target. Burrow absolutely feasts on slant and crossing routes. He is more athletic than he may appear and is willing and able to be active in the run game. Burrow has been highly productive against elite competition in big games. I do worry that his longer passes along the boundaries are a cause for concern. Burrow has average to below average arm strength causing many of these deeper passes to hang in the air longer than desired. At the NFL level, this could give defensive backs time to recover.

    A+

    2. Washington Redskins –Chase Young, EDGE The Ohio State University

    Pick Analysis –The Redskins should be on the clock for no longer than 30 seconds on this one. Yes, there have been rumors that Ron Rivera likes Tua, and Dwayne Haskins certainly wasn’t his pick. That being said, Covid-19 has changed the game. They could either take the best player in the draft or draft an injured player that is unable to meet with their doctors. Teams may look to move up to select a QB, but doing so would ultimately prevent them from getting Young. It has been rumored that nobody after the Lions has even done a lot of work on Young because it is a foregone conclusion that he won’t be available past Detroit.

    Player Analysis - Look no further than Young’s former teammate, Nick Bosa to see what an elite edge rusher can do to a defense. Young is a highly, highly disruptive force that can take over a game. He has an elite blend of size, strength, and speed. Young can be mitigated if a tackle can get position on him, and disengagement is an area that he can work to improve at. Young also does not play until the whistle is blown, and I would like to see him improve his effort.

    A+

    3. Detroit Lions –Jeffrey Okudah, CB The Ohio State University

    Pick Analysis –The very fact that Matt Patricia is picking here with a mandate to win shows the level of dysfunction within the organization. Ideally, this would be the time for a full rebuild as almost certainly, they will be on the clock with a franchise quarterback available. But because they need to win now, they really aren’t able to fully realize the value of the pick. Trading for future picks seems out of the question for a coaching staff that may not be there to select the picks. The Lions cannot desire to move too far back either and miss out on elite talent. In my mind a trade with the Dolphins seems to be a matter of destiny with an outside chance of the Chargers and Panthers making a big offer. I just really couldn’t see them moving farther back from the 7thpick (Panthers). Ultimately, I think taking Okudah really would help the win-now mandate, and the risk of losing out on him may not be worth it.

    Player Analysis - Jeffrey Okudah is one of my favorite players in the draft. I nicknamed him “The Shadow”while watching him play because he was so close to the receivers that he was covering. My only concern with Okudah is his clocked 40 time. Although less than ideal, I never saw it become an issue. In fact, his burst of speed to close in on passes appeared exceptional. Okudah is a highly disruptive player as he is able to get his hands on passes and limiting the throwing window of his opponents. Okudah could very well evolve into a lock down corner as quarterbacks may choose to shy away from him.

    A+


    4. New York Giants –Tristan Wirfs, OT Iowa

    Pick Analysis –This seems to be the pick that requires the most finesse. I am a strong believer in getting a playmaker with top five picks. The Giants have several holes, and a lot of #2 type receivers. They could elect to snag a playmaker or a top-flight receiver. That being said, this could literally be the biggest receiver draft in the history of the NFL, and strong talent will almost certainly be available at the top of the second round. Ultimately, the Giants should come to the conclusion that the offense runs through Saquon Barkley, and a strong offensive line will help the development of Daniel Jones. If ever there was a group of tackles that were different, it is this year’s group. Think of these guys like flavors of ice cream. Saying one is better than the other is a matter of taste. Personally, I think pairing Mekhi Becton with Will Hernandez would help build a strong, physical identity to the line. That being said, it is very early to be taking a lineman. Ideally, trading back to picks 6-9 makes so much sense. This should give the Giants a top-flight lineman and additional picks. It is entirely conceivable that the player they covet could be available at those picks and being willing to take less might yield them more in the long run.

    Pick Analysis –If you looked up offensive linemen in the dictionary, Tristan Wirfs is exactly what you would expect to see. He has a prototypical build. His game is predicated on his strength, but he lacks ideal mobility and struggles working in space. My guess is that Wirfs will be drafted as a tackle and wind up being a solid guard in the league. Ironically, years after releasing Erek Flowers, they may have a very similar storyline on their hands. In the end, getting a guard at the four spot is disappointing.

    C+

    5. Miami Dolphins –Tua Tagovailoa, QB Alabama

    Pick Analysis –After spending a full year of “tanking but trying,”the Dolphins have found themselves in quite the predicament. They are not bad enough to be guaranteed Burrow or any other quarterback for that matter. Tua is coming off of a severe injury, and they cannot be sure that the team doctors would pass his physical. It seems like the Dolphins have at least shown interests in all of the top four quarterbacks. Word has even circulated that Dolphins have played the hypothetical game, “How much does the talent around a quarterback lead to his success?” It sounds like Grier would like to walk away with a lot of talent in terms of quantity. So how does this all play out? Welp. Everyone has a boss. I don’t know how you could go through all that the Dolphins have gone through and just hope that their guy is there. Moreover, pundits are saying that the Dolphins have equal grades on Tua and Herbert. Chris Grier is the GM, and he is paid a lot of money to break the tie. Essentially, it is his job to know the right answer. Leaving the question does not look good in front of your boss.

    Pick Analysis –My gut tells me that the deal ultimately gets done, and Miami moves to three and makes the choice. To me, Tua is more of a media sensation than a great prospect. I often ask fans of Tua,“What about him is elite?” The only thing elite about him is his deep ball. He is accurate, but not historically accurate. I would say that he is less accurate than Baker Mayfield coming out of college. His team was noticeably worse when he was out injured, and he has produced at a high level. That being said, I nicknamed him “The RAC Master”because a ton of his short passes went on the stat sheet as big plays. I truly believe a quarterback like Herbert would have had similar success playing with the elite level of talent that Alabama has. Honestly, Alabama would have one of the best receiving corps in the NFL today. He has average to below average arm strength. When being contacted, he cannot make passes on upper body strength alone that other quarterbacks can make. He is widely regarded as a strong leader who is incredibly likeable. Tua has suffered more than his share of injuries, and his hip injury is the most concerning. There are rumors that teams have failed his physical, and it is incredibly risky and possibly irresponsible to take him without complete information. It is also entirely possible that the Tua you have seen on tape may never be the same player again. For the first time that I can remember, I am going to offer two grades. The first grade is if the Dolphins stay at 5. This reflects a calculated risk for a team stocked with capital. I will offer a second grade for the Dolphins or any other team that moves up to get him.


    Tua at 5 –B-

    Trading up for Tua –C+ or below depending on compensation

    6. Los Angeles Chargers –Justin Herbert, QB Oregon

    Pick Analysis –The Chargers represent the third team that I am 100% certain that want to obtain a quarterback in the 2020 draft. Problematically, the Dolphins are slotted one spot ahead of them with plenty of draft day ammunition. They may be eying Detroit’s pick too, but it seems like the only way to obtain that pick would be to grossly overpay. My guess is that they will enquire about moving up, but will eventually be forced to bail out once the price gets too high.

    Player Analysis –For much of the offseason, I have been asking myself, “If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, is it a duck (I couldn’t resist this pun)?” Justin Herbert is the prototypical NFL quarterback. He is a big man with an even bigger arm. He is athletic, and has inconsistent accuracy. Although he threw more screen passes that virtually any other prospect, it felt like a enough of his passes were pushed down the field similar to NFL style offenses. One of the pitfalls of many evaluations is looking for “it factors”and “winners.” I hate this on so many levels, and I think that it is a tool used to overdraft players. I do think that there is some cause for concern for Herbert’s intangibles. Herbert is an introvert. He is prone to throw errant passes inexplicably. At times he feels like he has a little Chad Henne in him and is robotic. I will never forget the game against Auburn when he threw up a last second Hail Mary with the game on the line and missed the end zone completely. I also wonder, “Why was he not more successful playing in a weak PAC conference?” Now there does seem to be light at the end of the tunnel in this story. Herbert did demonstrate maturity as he elected to come back to school last year despite being a consensus first round pick, he was the Rose Bowl MVP and the Senior Bowl MVP.

    In the end, Herbert turned out to be a player that made me a believer. I think that his physical tools alone warrant a first round pick. Much like I think the Tua story is oversold, I think the Herbert story is undersold.

    A-

    7. Carolina Panthers –Derrick Brown, DT Auburn

    Pick Analysis –This pick is really interesting. Not only do I think quarterback is in play, but I could see them moving up to select one. I am a firm believer in follow the money. They gave Teddy Bridgewater a three-year deal, and he said something to the effect that he will be a starter for at least two years. I think that they have a bargaining chip in Christian McCaffrey that could make them as competitive as the Dolphins in terms of overall ability to move up. Additionally, in an odd turn of fate, Matt Rhule has one of the most secure jobs in all of football. I typed in Jordan Love here, and deleted it. I personally would pick him right here. I suspect that the Panthers will not have an opportunity to draft a quarterback this high next year, and they should strike while the iron is hot. Ultimately, I think the Panthers pivot is due to their many needs on defense.

    Pick Analysis –I seriously thought about opening up my evaluation on Christian Wilkins last year and copying it verbatim for Derrick Brown. Brown is a big man that is more slippery than strong. His ability to move around defenders can provide pass rush from the interior, and Carolina appears to be looking to run the 4-3 in 2020. I have real trouble grading Brown higher than Javon Kinlaw according to any sort of metric. I also think back to the 13thpick of the 2019 NFL. I really think if the Dolphins were given a do-over with Christian Wilkins, they would take it.

    C+

    8. Arizona Cardinals –Jedrick Wills, OT Alabama

    Pick Analysis –Upon getting DeAndre Hopkins, it appears that Arizona has really put itself on the right path towards turning the franchise around. Going into the 2020 season, the Cards have Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, and DeAndre Hopkins catching passes, and shoring up the offensive line could be the best way to ensure Kyler Murray’s development.

    Player Analysis –Remember when I compared the offensive line talent to flavors of ice cream? In Arizona’s case, there is a right answer to the question, “What is the best flavor of ice cream?” Putting a behemoth of a man like Mekhi Becton in front of such a small quarterback would be an awful choice. Jedrick Wills is one of my favorite players in the draft. He has exceptional footwork and is a cerebral player. He is a mover of men and can position defenders away from plays. With a mobile quarterback, this is precisely what Arizona is looking for. Critics may point to the fact that he was a right tackle in college, but I think that is because Tua was a lefty. I think that this could easily be the best player-team match in the draft.

    A+

    9. Jacksonville Jaguars –Javon Kinlaw, DT South Carolina

    Pick Analysis –This is another interesting pick as the Jags could look to go in several directions. Quarterback is a possibility here depending on if any of the big four fall. Jacksonville seemingly went all-in on Minshew when they traded Nick Foles. Additionally, Doug Marrone barely kept his job last year, and a rookie quarterback will not help his cause. The Jaguars have a lot of great #2 receivers, but lack an elite receiver. Their defense took a major hit after losing Ramsey, Bouye, and Dareus. Because this is a deep receiver class, and they do pick again in eleven picks, it appears they can wait to address the offense.

    Player Analysis - Javon Kinlaw is an elite talent who can dominate from the inside. He has both strength and elite closing speed on the quarterback. He has a muscular and athletic frame that almost makes him look like an end. I would like to see Kinlaw grow to be more consistent. At times he does disappear. Overall, I think Kinlaw has the potential to be a pro bowl type talent.

    A+

    10. Cleveland Browns –Mekhi Becton, OT Louisville

    Pick Analysis - I do not consider this to be a very complicated pick at all. Clearly, the Browns need to get better on the offensive line, and they are perfectly situated in terms of draft position to land a top tier tackle. There is a considerable drop off from the first tier to the second tier, and with a possible early run on the offensive line, there is a very real possibility that by the time the Browns draft again, there may not be any second tier players available.

    Player Analysis –Kevin Stefanski is in a precarious situation as he has the difficult job of installing a new offense in what could very likely serve to be an abbreviated offseason. It simply just makes sense to play to Cleveland’s strengths and run a simple(r) offense. To me, that means a lot of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Honestly, who could be better to lead the charge than the 6’7’’368 pound tackle from Louisville? He may very well be the strongest player that I have ever scouted. I have seen him literally throw grown men like rag dolls. At times, it almost appeared like something out of the Marvel Universe. Becton is actually as more nimble than you’d think for a big man. It appears that Becton has been playing a ton of football on natural size and strength alone and will eventually have to improve his technique at the next level. With the addition of Becton and Conklin in the offseason, you really start to see a physical, pound the ball identity developing in Cleveland.

    A

    11. New York Jets –Andrew Thomas, OT Georgia

    Pick Analysis –Jerry Jeudy seems to be exactly what Adam Gase wants in terms of a wide receiver. In what has been deemed the greatest wide receiver class of all time, Gase and company are shocked to not see a single receiver selected in the top ten. In a real life example of supply and demand, there has been a run at tackles. The Jets realize that this is the last chance to get a blue chip tackle prospect, and forego taking Jeudy.

    Player Analysis –The Jets land my second rated offensive line prospect with the 11thpick. Thomas is both balanced and polished, and should be able to slide into the starting role even in an abbreviated offseason. I really thought that Thomas showed a ton of consistency against top tier talent and did not have some of the more glaring holes that other prospects in this draft exhibited.

    A+

    12. Las Vegas Raiders –Isaiah Simmons, Defensive Playmaker Clemson

    Pick Analysis - Between John Gruden and Mike Mayock, there is a ton of intrigue with this pick. Even with the addition of Marcus Mariota, I am not convinced that they think that the quarterback position has been fully addressed. I do think that they have the potential to be a surprise team that jumps into the top five –they certainly have the ammunition to make such a move. After the Antonio Brown debacle, the Raiders still find themselves looking to solidify the receiver position. That being said, the Raiders are stunned to see that Isaiah Simmons has fallen to 13.

    Player Analysis - Isaiah Simmons is one of my favorite players in the entire draft. Honestly, I cannot believe that he is a real person as he feels like a create-a-player in Madden. He looks like a defensive end, has corner speed, has fluid hips, and excels in coverage duty. This guy is incredibly active and productive in the Clemson defense. The biggest knock on this guy is that people are concerned that he doesn’t have a clear position at the next level. I have witnessed him line up at linebacker, corner, and safety. Gruden is both creative and intelligent enough to get him out on the field, and I am thoroughly convinced that the rest will work itself out.

    A+

    13. San Francisco 49ers –Jerry Jeudy, WR Alabama

    Pick Analysis - To me, it has become an annual right of passage to see the 49ers eyeing receivers in the draft, look at free agent pass catchers, and looking to make a move at the trade deadline to find Jimmy Garappolo a little more help. The time has come for the Niners to make a serious plunge.

    Player Analysis –In my mind, this is another fantastic player-team match. Kyle Shanahan is going to absolutely love having one of the best route runners in recent history on his squad. Jeudy have the versatility to line up both inside and outside. He has exceptional footwork and is able to move defensive backs without even touching them. His ability to stop, pivot, and change direction quickly is remarkable. My biggest criticism of Jeudy is that he drops passes that elite receivers would catch all too frequently.

    A+

    14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers –Josh Jones, OT Houston

    Pick Analysis - If I could show one team this mock draft, it would be the Bucs because I feel like this pick has them in the middle of no man’s land. They just landed the GOAT, and I am 100% certain that they are looking to find a lineman to protect his blindside. I find this mock draft to be very reasonable, and it is quite evident that they simply may not be able to get their hands on one at 15. They could select Jordan Love here, but getting Tom Brady means you are trying to win now, and they need to select players that accomplish that goal. They also need help at running back, but again this feels early. My advice to the Buccaneers would be to take this mock draft as a litmus test. If receivers are late going off the board, they may need to be aggressive and move up to get a more plug-and-play tackle. There is a ton of talent in terms of receivers still available, but with Evans, Godwin, Howard, and Brate, there is a diminishing return on adding another receiving target. The Bucs also need to get better at running back, but there is not a Todd Gurley or Ezekiel Elliott in this draft.

    Player Analysis - I am a Josh Jones fan. I think he has a solid frame and very light feet. His most recent tape does show him evolving as a pass protector. He seems to do a good job of positioning himself to stop incoming defensive ends. Jones is still working on his technique, and for a win-now team selecting a developmental guy this early in the draft is questionable. Which compounds this problem is that we live in a Covid-19 world and are realistically looking an abbreviated offseason that is driven more by virtual practices than ever before. I don’t see how this particularly helps to get him up to speed especially when he needs to start week one. Again, I cannot stress enough that Tampa needs to land a player that can start right away, and this feels like a forced marriage. I think Jones can develop into a solid starter, but in order for this pick to be successful, it needs to happen sooner rather than later.

    C+

    15. Denver Broncos –CeeDee Lamb, WR Oklahoma

    Pick Analysis –As of the time of writing this, there appears to be rumors circulating that the Denver Broncos are looking to move up to take a linemen. If you are reading this straight through, as opposed to skipping around, this has become a theme. Elway is not easily parted with his draft picks, and I feel like this trade does not wind up getting executed. I think there are several teams that are more desperate and would be willing to give up more to move up. I also wanted to throw this spot out as having a potential for a surprise pick. John Elway has “a type”when it comes to quarterbacks, and I do think that one quarterback is going to take a draft day plunge. If Justin Herbert is the guy that falls, he fits the Elway mold of a big, strong-armed quarterback. Drew Lock lit up the final games of the regular season and looked really good. I do think that Elway could see this as a hedge on that bet.

    Player Analysis - In the end, the Broncos get the best receiver in the draft and an area of need –a double bonus. Whereas a skilled draft technician can explain to you that Jerry Jeudy does the technical, nuanced things, a guy in the bar can tell you why Lamb is gonna be special. He plays very big, and his ability to go up and catch contested balls against multiple defenders is special. Lamb is incredibly hard to bring down as a runner. He has amazing lateral movement that causes multiple tacklers to miss him, and has the strength to take on tacklers by brute force. Watching his tape reminds me a lot of Dez Byrant. In the end, the Broncos get my #1 receiver with the 16thpick of the draft.

    A+

    16. Atlanta Falcons –K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE LSU

    Pick Analysis –I have never seen a team with so much talent on the offense struggle to win games as much as the Atlanta Falcons. It feels like a near certainty that the Falcons will look to improve the defensive side of the ball. I think much of their problems are rooted in their inability to rush the passer, and if given the opportunity to get better in the trenches, they will do so. CJ Henderson could be an option here as well. It appears that the Falcons are aggressively trying to move up the draft board and obtain a big time defensive talent. I would expect this pick to be dealt.

    Pick Analysis - My initial impression in watching Chaisson was that he looked very small for a defensive end. I suspected that this would cause him a world of problems in attacking the passer, but honestly, I never really saw my worries grow to fruition on the tape. In my mind, he is far more suited to play 3-4 linebacker than defensive end. That being said, Chaisson has elite speed and does a great job at finding spaces and quickly closing in on the quarterback. He is a high effort player and will stay with a play until the whistle is blown. He finds a way to get involved in plays that he was seemingly taken out of. Chaisson is still a bit raw after losing his sophomore season to a torn ACL, and does have some “one year wonder”label attached to him. I like the player, but I am not a fan of the fit.

    B-

    17. Dallas Cowboys –Henry Ruggs III, WR Alabama

    Pick Analysis - Dallas has been shelling out money left and right. It seems like every offseason, they are handing out another big payday. Eventually, they are going to have to start parting with players. They experienced this first hand by losing Byron Jones in the offseason and could be looking at CJ Henderson or possible safety help. Amari Cooper just got $100 million, and Michael Gallup at points has looked like the best receiver on the team. He has two years left and will almost certainly be a cap casualty. Behind him, the cupboard seems to be empty.

    Pick Analysis - Going into the draft, the Cowboys probably felt like this pick would be a defensive back. That being said, Jerry Jones is shocked to see the speedster, Henry Ruggs available. Many times, the incredibly fast receivers wind up finding the harsh reality that being fast simply is not enough to be successful at the NFL level. I think Ruggs is an exception to that rule. Although never materializing, Ruggs was rumored to run a 4.2 flat on the 40-yard dash. Additionally, Ruggs has demonstrated consistent hands and above average route running at the college level. Starting him in the slot and kicking him outside when Gallup leaves feels like a great plan for success. Moreover, Ruggs is a game changer that the Cowboys could really use in their win-now mentality.

    A+

    18. Miami Dolphins –Xavier McKinney, S Alabama

    Pick Analysis –I roughed up Tampa Bay for reaching to draft Josh Jones at tackle at the 14 slot, and now the Dolphins find themselves in a very similar position. The Phins spent a ton of money in the offseason, but really neglected the tackle spot. Realistically, they probably need two tackles. Right now, it would be too much of a reach to grab the next tier of prospects. The Dolphins want a running back, but most of the guys that they are eyeing will probably be available at 26. I think they would have considered Ruggs if he lasted. Unless they got a monster offer from a team moving up to draft Love, trading back does not seem smart. If they move up to get Tua, it may prohibit them from moving up from this spot as well. They cannot have all this draft capital and only wind up with Tua and a tackle.

    Player Analysis –In a twist of fate, the very pick that they acquired from the Minkah Fitzpatrick trade is used to select another Alabama safety. I don’t think that McKinney has the upside that Fitzpatrick had. McKinney is exactly what you’d expect from a strong safety. He is very strong at run support and his a hard hitter who excels at finding the ball carrier. What is interesting about McKinney is I feel like he is fast and explosive when moving toward the quarterback, but is slow when running down field. I have been spoiled in previous years when seeing safeties go in the first round, and I am not used to seeing a safety with 4.63 speed going in the first round. That is linebacker speed. McKinney would certainly start right away, but asking him to do much beyond run support would be a mistake. When drafting this early, I like to select players where I can see them evolving into game changers. I do not get that feeling with this pick.

    C+

    19. Las Vegas Raiders –Jordan Love, QB Utah St.

    Pick Analysis –Do you remember some guy talking about the Raiders really needing to grab a receiver but were overjoyed to see Isaiah Simmons fall into their laps? I think going into the draft, the Raiders had a plan but really proved to be flexible. The Raiders do not have any second round picks, but they have three third round picks. They likely have the ammo to get back into the second round in order to snag a receiver that they like.

    Pick Analysis - I really think that this is an optimum place for Love to go. With Covid-19 likely interrupting the offseason, it has essentially made a developmental guy even more developmental. That being said, he could sit back and learn without the pressures of getting into live games that other rookies will have. Love is a big, strong-armed kid with a fiery personality that will probably mesh quite well with Chuckie. When comparing him to Herbert, I think it goes to show just how much being likeable can affect the way that you are perceived. Essentially, his biggest fans ultimately will tell you to more or less disregard the entire 2019 season –basically pretend that it doesn’t exist. Essentially, everyone left Love, and his production cratered. I think that this has become overdone. He was flat out missing open guys, and this is concerning. That being said, there are moments in which you can absolutely see all of his tools coming together and him making next level throws. I do think that Love eventually becomes an NFL starter, but I am doubtful that it is in 2020. Luckily for the Raiders, it doesn’t have to be in 2020.

    A

    20. Jacksonville Jaguars –CJ Henderson, CB Florida

    Pick Analysis –If the draft fell in this order, I think the Jags would be on the clock for all of 30 seconds. By snagging Kinlaw earlier in the draft and now Henderson, they seem to have plugged their biggest holes and have correctly prioritized the rebuild with top-level talent.

    Player Analysis –The Jaguars really do get a steal to find a guy with such talent still available at 20. Henderson is actually faster than Okudah. He is 6’1’’but appears smaller on film. He has elite top and speed and has done a solid job in coverage. Henderson does need to work on transitioning to a tackler in both terms of aggressiveness and form once a pass has been completed. I am not sure that Henderson is the guy that I would really want in run support.

    A

    21. Philadelphia Eagles –Denzel Mims, WR Baylor

    Pick Analysis - Despite swinging a trade for Darius Slay, the Eagles are sitting a fairly decent stockpile of draft picks. They could decide to start the run on the second wave of tackles, but I suspect that their draft will probably begin with them trying to rebuild their receiving unit. A pretty talented unit a few years ago, now seemingly appears to be old and injured. Howie Roseman is a solid GM and probably realizes that he is not just adding a third receiver to the unit, but he is really drafting a guy that will probably take on an even bigger role in 2021 when someone becomes a cap casualty.

    Player Analysis –Okay, Howie Roseman tries to hit this one out of the park. At 6’3’’and a sub 4.4 forty, immediate visions of a dominant, pro bowl receiver are conjured. Now, I have been doing this for years, and it feels like there are regularly guys like this that bust. I think that I am starting to realize the common denominator. It seems like guys who pick up their speed later on in a route do not fair as well as guys with the initial burst. Mims does share this attribute. That being said, he seemed to be a guy that was very trusted at Baylor when the game was on the line, and it was obvious that they did their best to get him the ball in key situations. I feel like there is time for Mims to develop, and probably will have the best opposing corners face Jeffrey and Jackson. I think there is balance of risk and reward at this pick.

    B

    22. Minnesota Vikings –AJ Epenesa, EDGE Iowa

    Pick Analysis - The cupboard certainly seems to appear empty in terms of receivers, and I fully suspect that unless a trade for a veteran receiver gets done prior to the draft that the Vikings may look to take a receiver with one or both of their first round draft picks. Everson Griffen opted out of his contract seeking greener pastures elsewhere; however, those greener pastures never really came into fruition. Now Griffen is available and seemingly in limbo as he muses over a possible return to Minnesota.

    Pick Analysis - I do think that there is a lot of value in getting a plug and play starter this late in the draft. Epenesa is a powerful defensive end that rushes the passer with strength. He does a solid job in run support. The problem with Epenesa is that he does not have speed and quickness off of the snap. Because of this, I do not think that Epenesa has the ceiling that other pass rushers in this draft. I think that the combine is generally overrated and too much is drawn from it. That being said, a five second forty time is really a cause for concern. I envision Epenesa being a good player but never a great player.

    B-

    23. New England Patriots –Zack Baun, LB Wisconsin

    Pick Analysis –Dare I say it. The Patriots are a bigger mess than you’d think. The Patriots should be making moves to find Tom Brady’s replacement. At pick 23, they are drafting early for them. Here is the problem. The Patriots have a ton of draft picks, but many of them are in the 6thand 7thround. The biggest problem is that they don’t have a second round pick. Because of that, moving up this year will be challenging. The Patriots really need to get better at receiver as well, but let’s talk about that. The Patriots are a living example of the sunken cost fallacy. They spent a first round pick last year on N’Keal Harry, and they have already spent a second round pick this year Mohamed Sanu. Let’s be honest, after all of their investments at the position, their best receiver is the 33-year-old Julian Edelman. Oh, by the way, the former Belichick disciples raided their defense in the offseason. At the end of the day, I think the Patriots will tell themselves that they addressed the position.

    Player Analysis - If I could describe Baun in one word it would be “responsible”(ironic because just recently it has been reported that Baun has tested positive for a diluted urine sample). But on the field, he is seemingly always doing what he is supposed to be doing. Baun is “good”at a lot of different things but is not exceptional at anything. He has nice pass rush skills, with a decent collection of moves (some of them can be unorthodox), he can cover, and he has quick feet. He has adequate speed and good strength. I really do think that Baun will be in the league for a long time.

    A-

    24. New Orleans Saints –Kenneth Murray, LB Oklahoma

    Pick Analysis –A casual observation that I have noticed over the last few years is that that the Saints simply do not value draft picks like other teams do. The really seem ambivalent about overpaying to get a guy that they like. The Saints have a stacked roster, and with the evaluation process being cut short by Covid-19, I could see Sean Payton telling Mickey Loomis, “Go get me a good player, and I will make it work.”

    Pick Analysis –I think Kenneth Murray is a steal right here, and is more of a matter of circumstance and less about him as a player. One of the things that I really grew to like about Murray is that he is a rangy player that can close in on people in a hurry. He has a solid frame and is a physical tackler. Murray is also fast enough to cover the modern day tight end.

    A

    25. Minnesota Vikings –Tee Higgins, WR Clemson

    Pick Analysis –Like I said before, the Vikings are looking to get better at receiver. They held off at pick 22, and now is the time to strike.

    Player Analysis –Much like the Eagles, the Vikings are going for a home run. Higgins is a tall guy, but does not quite have the speed of Denzel Mims. What is interesting is that it felt like Higgins got off the ball quicker than Mims. Higgins is a guy that I really grew to like in the draft process. He is exceptional at going up in traffic and catching contested passes. What makes me like him more than Mims is his ball tracking ability and ability to catch balls that are imperfectly thrown based on pure athleticism. There has been a pretty good history of these types of receivers really working out in Minnesota.

    B+

    26. Miami Dolphins –Isaiah Wilson, OT Georgia

    Pick Analysis –With the 18thpick, the Dolphins deviated from their plan to snag a tackle. At 26, it appears that now might be the time to start looking at that second wave of tackles. To be honest, I really would be surprised if the Dolphins actually wind up still holding this pick by late Thursday evening. In my mind, the tea leaves are telling me that the Dolphins will be doing what they can to slide up the draft boards to get either Tua or a premiere left tackle –or both.

    Player Analysis –A guy with experience playing right tackle may suddenly hold a little bit extra value if you happened to have a left handed quarterback. Wilson has a real chance of being an underrated player that could surprise a lot of player. The first red flag is that he played right tackle as opposed to left. But let’s think about whom is playing left tackle at Georgia –Andrew Thomas. He is easily a player that could go in the top ten. So, it may just happen that Georgia was loaded at offensive line. Wilson is a massive human being who is surprisingly light on his feet. He moves out of his stance and can slide into position as well as most people in this class. He does have the benefit of playing in the SEC, but I would have liked to see him play more against team’s top pass rushers.

    B+

    27. Seattle Seahawks –Yetur Gross-Matos, EDGE Penn. State

    Pick Analysis –I remember back in the day when the late, great Al Davis and the Raiders were on the clock. I would always have a mixed feeling of laughter and anticipation waiting to see the Raiders pick because they could seemingly draft anybody. Well, I think the Seahawks are the team that the Raiders aspired to be. Their net seems to be much wider than most teams, and they also tend to not be particularly concerned with value. If they get their guy, they are happy. I have grown to respect and enjoy their picks over the last few seasons.

    Player Analysis -

    Jadeveon Clowney had visions of breaking the bank in the offseason, and that simply has not happened. Perhaps he returns to Seattle on a one-year prove it deal, but I just don’t see Seattle having the cap space to give him a monster deal. I don’t really think that Gross-Matos is the guy to replace a true pass rusher like Clowney either. Gross-Matos has a big frame with long arms, but is slow, slow, slow off the ball. I just don’t see him as a pass rusher. That being said, I think Gross-Matos is exceptional in the run game and does exceedingly well at setting the edge. I think we are in a pass heavy league, and Gross-Matos likely translates into a situational guy.

    C+

    28. Baltimore Ravens –Justin Jefferson, WR LSU

    Pick Analysis –It feels like every few years the Ravens defense gets purged via free agency, and you could see them look to upgrade their front seven. Going into the 2021 season, Mark Ingram will have one more year left on his contract, but he is on the wrong side of thirty, so it is possible that this could be his last year in Baltimore. The Ravens rely heavily on the run and could see this late pick as a chance to grab another back. Finally, the Ravens might just consider grabbing another pass catcher especially after trading away Haden Hurst in the offseason.

    Player Analysis –When watching Justin Jefferson play, the first thing that went into my mind was, “This guy belongs in Baltimore.” Jefferson is purely a slot guy that has some nastiness to him. He is physical and loves getting involved in the run game. I could see him fitting their system perfectly. Jefferson also runs solid routes and can find holes in the zone quite well. Moreover, Jefferson has the ball tracking ability and athleticism to catch off-target passes. I don’t exactly see him as a boundary receiver, and he may have had the benefit of playing with other talented receivers and an elite quarterback in a historic year. I think that the fit is so strong with these two that I am really going to raise the grade significantly.

    A

    29. Tennessee Titans –AJ Terrell, CB Clemson

    Pick Analysis –The Titans have quietly put together a solid roster. I was trying to find a glaring need, but it appears like the Titans have a lot of flexibility at the 29 spot. The emergence of Derrick and his bruising style of running puts the Titans in a precarious situation. Do they give him a monster contract or let him walk? I expect them to at least draft a backup for depth, but they could consider one here. They also lost Jack Conklin, and Logan Ryan is still available via free agency.

    Player Analysis –Ultimately, I think that the Titans select the best player available in a position of need. I like AJ Terrell more than a lot of people and would honestly be surprised if he fell this far. Terrell is a rangy corner with long arms and plenty of speed. He is smooth and agile. I feel like you also get the physicality that you hope to find in a bigger corner. By adding Terrell, the Titans immediately add depth in an already pretty nice stable of defensive backs.

    A

    30. Green Bay Packers –Brandon Aiyuk, WR Arizona State

    Pick Analysis –Where there’s smoke, there might just be fire. The rumor was last year that Green Bay was looking to draft a quarterback and were even looking to trade up in the second round to get Drew Lock. It appears they are still searching for Aaron Rodger’s replacement this year. At the end of the day, I just cannot see them packaging multiple picks to move up. Based on draft position and recent success, they are in win-now mode. Aaron Rodgers is throwing to a bunch of guys that are only good because Aaron Rodgers is throwing to them and need to upgrade.

    Player Analysis –In the Covid-19 world, Aiyuk can offer immediate value on special teams if he does not crack the starting lineup. Aiyuk is a “blend type receiver”where he is not the biggest or the fastest guy, but has a nice blend of both. He is twitchy and agile. He earned the nickname YAK (Yards After King) in college, and like many of the receivers in this draft, looks to see this as a big selling point on draft day.

    B+

    31. San Francisco 49ers –Antoine Winfield Jr., S Minnesota

    Pick Analysis –As I am writing this, rumors are picking up steam that the 49ers are shopping both of their first round picks. Obviously, they are looking to acquire more picks. That being said, if Jeudy was on the board earlier, I couldn’t see them passing him up. I am not sure that teams would be willing to trade up here either to get a fifth year option on a quarterback. The Niners feel similar to the Titans in having a pretty solid roster that should allow for them to have pick flexibility.

    Player Analysis - The Niners get my favorite safety in the draft. Winfield comes from a solid pedigree, and I think of Winfield as a true playmaker. He is a hard-hitting safety with a true nose for the ball. He has a knack for getting interceptions in the timeliest of situations. I think that the biggest knock on him is that he is undersized. That being said, I still feel like he is rangy enough. Winfield offers position flexibility as he can play both free and strong safety.

    A

    32. Kansas City Chiefs –D’Andre Swift, RB Georgia

    Pick Analysis - The Chiefs have been perpetually needing to get better at defense since Andy Reid has taken over as head coach. The crazy thing is that they could essentially pick any defensive position, and they would fill a position of need.

    Player Analysis - With all of that being said, Andy Reid says, “Who needs a defense? We’ll just score more points!” Damien Williams simply cannot stay healthy, and Shady McCoy is old and likely won’t return. Many people have Swift as the top running back available this year, and honestly, I don’t see it. He is not physically impressive. He is undersized, he is not particularly fast, and really does not have that initial burst that I look for in a running back. I think he benefited by potentially lining up between two first round picks at tackle. I do think that anyone that works with Patrick Mahomes is going to feast, but I think there are better backs available, and he is not a first round talent.

    C-

    Big Board

    1. Chase Young, DE The Ohio State University

    2. Jeffrey Okudah, CB The Ohio State University

    3. CeeDee Lamb, WR Oklahoma

    4. Joe Burrow, QB LSU

    5. Isaiah Simmons, DEFENSIVE PLAYMAKER Clemson

    6. Javon Kinlaw, DT South Carolina

    7. Jedrick Willls, OT Alabama

    8. Henry Ruggs III, WR Alabama

    9. Jerry Jeudy, WR Alabama

    10. Andrew Thomas, OT Georgia

    Top Quarterbacks

    1. Joe Burrow, LSU

    2. Justin Herbert, Oregon

    3. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama

    4. Jordan Love, Utah St.

    5. Jacob Eason, Washington

    Order in Which the QBs Will be Drafted

    1. Joe Burrow, LSU

    2. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama

    3. Justin Herbert, Oregon

    4. Jordan Love, Utah St.

    5. Jacob Eason, Washington

    Two Most Overrated Players (True Value in Parenthesis)

    1. Jalen Hurts, QB Oklahoma (4th)

    2. Austin Jackson, OT USC (3rd)

    Okay, this is the first time in a long time that generally speaking, I am in agreement with the draft community. I usually do three overrated players, but I honestly struggled to find one. In fact, my most overrated is a guy that sounds like he is going in the second round that feels like a stretch. I am not gonna name a guy just to name one either.

    10 years from now, we will say the best player in the draft in the draft was Chase Young, EDGE The Ohio State University.

    10 years from now, we will say the biggest first round bust was Austin Jackson, OT USC.

    The annual hidden gem of the draft is Van Jefferson, WR Florida.


    Odds and Ends


    Just like many basic aspects of American the lifestyle, Covid-19 will fundamentally disrupt the draft process. Good teams will adapt, and bad teams will remain stagnant. The draft has always been a bit of a gamble, but this draft seems like a good old-fashioned game of Texas Hold ’Em. I think that this metaphor is particularly apt considering the circumstances. The scouting season ended abruptly shortly after the scouting combine. Teams were in the early stages of meeting with players and independently checking medical reports. With some players the process was farther along than with others. Poker, at its core, is a game of incomplete information. Sometimes, you know you have a great hand on the flop, and other hands might not hit until that final card is turned over on the river.

    I would advise teams to actively pursue players that they think that they have enough early information on to make a confident conclusion that they are good players. I have worked with Zoom, and I know teams have used Skype to “meet”with players, but I am not exactly sure that you can get what you are looking for in those sessions. I don’t really know how you can get a guy on the white board and see his football intelligence. There may be information that could be flushed out from in person meetings that you just may not be able to flush out. Invariably, I think that this will lead to a lot of assuming which could obviously lead to bad assumptions.


    I think that teams will ultimately rely more on film, which could be a good thing.


    I also think that Covid-19 will put a new premium on more polished players from more competitive conferences. Teams have no idea what the offseason, training camp, and the preseason is going to look like, but I am guessing that it will be abridged.

    The NFL is notoriously ruthless. If some rookie tackle from No Name State Community College is selected early, is forced into a starting role, and gives up three sacks in the first week, the media is going to ask questions. The kid’s confidence is going to get rattled. There will be college tackles coming out in 2021 with good tape and measurables. Coaches’jobs will be on the line, and they will be looking to find new players that block. It is the circle of life.


    This draft is very top heavy. Many positions have one or two guys that I really like, but after that, it is kinda iffy. The receiving class may be historically deep, but I really think Lamb, Ruggs, and Jeudy could be special. I did my top ten, and quite honestly, after that, there may only be one or two more blue chip players.


    So what does this all mean? The waters are so murky right now. This is the year to trade up. Go get a guy that you know is going to be good. Overpay. This is the year to do it. Go back to the poker analogy. This will be a game of incomplete information. Find the guys that you have seen enough to be aggressive about.

    Late round picks are worth less than ever before. Remember how I was talking about an abridged offseason? That kid from No Name State Community College who has tons of raw talent might not have time to learn the system by the time the regular season begins. Usually, the final few roster spots favor the younger players. I think that this year, those spots will go to veterans with system experience.


    Okay, one guy that I wanted to be on the record about was Jalen Hurts. I am not a big fan of his. I have never watched film on a quarterback and thought to myself, “This guy does not want to pass the ball.” Then I watched Jalen Hurts. I honestly think that his instinct is part of his DNA, and I really would be surprised if he ever became a guy who sits back, reads a defense, and goes through progressions. He is athletic, but he is not in the same universe as Lamar Jackson.


    Now, don’t confuse my criticism with hatred. I have long said that I am surprised that more teams do not carry an athletic quarterback as a second string guy. For a short period of time, I think teams can run a gimmicky offense based on RPOs. I am not sure that I would want a starter getting hit that much, but for a four game window while a starter is out, I think it is manageable. I really do think that Hurts could go 2-2 in a backup role.


    On the other side of the coin, there is a guy that I really grew to like that I did not get to write about. I really think that The Ohio State University’s J.K. Dobbins could be a really good player on Sundays. Although, Dobbins did not run a forty due to an ankle injury at the combine, I feel like it is safe to say that he is fairly fast. He is slightly undersized, but what I love was his agility and ability to change direction in tight spaces. He has terrific vision and great anticipation. He has great balance and body control and is surprisingly strong.


    Last but not least, if you understandably did not read the entire draft all the way through, the Sparknotes say that you should draft an offensive tackle early. I fully expect a run to happen quickly.



    Okay, that is all I have. I wish your team a great draft. Be safe and maintain social distancing.
     
    KeyFin, Surfs Up 99 and Puka-head like this.
  2. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Don't agree with all of it. Can't disagree with any of it. Well done.
     
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  3. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Thus must have taken a lot of time and effort.

    Personally I'd be pretty bummed if our draft ended up this way. I like McKinney but I'd rather take Winfield Jr. at #26 and use #18 on an OT of a higher caliber.
     
    Striking, hitman8 and Surfs Up 99 like this.
  4. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I was not thrilled with the pick myself. It felt like a lot of the top guys just got swooped up in the picks before. I think the great part of it being a mock (which I hope the Dolphins have done themselves) is that you can see that you probably are gonna need to move up a few spots to get a better player.
     
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  5. firedan

    firedan Well-Known Member

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    I'm afraid you may have nailed it.I hope not.
     
  6. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Honestly, if Simmons fell that far it might be prudent to trade up to a spot we could grab him from #18.

    I wouldnt consider it our biggest need but hes a talent I wouldnt mind going after regardless.
     
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  7. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    It seems odd to me to give a grade to a team for making a pick they didn't make yet. You're the one making the picks.
     
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  8. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Haha I get what you're saying but I took it like this:

    The pick is what he thinks they will do. The grade is what he would give the team for the pick if it happens.
     
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  9. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    I understand that, I just think it's weird.
     
  10. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    The ole double hypothetical - hahaha.

    Lemme just give you my thought process.

    Suppose that I really think that the Dolphins are gonna take Fromm at 5. If I put him at 5, people will be like, "I can't believe that you think he is the second best QB in the draft. Well, I don't think that at all. I just think that is going to happen.

    Think of it kind of like this, "I think Team X will take Player Y. I think that would be a _____________ pick.
     
  11. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    He is gonna be so good!
     
  12. Striking

    Striking Junior Member

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    That's the kind of draft which has way too much bust potential for my liking. Good news, 2021 we should be in the top 5 to try again.
     
  13. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    If we get the offensive line figured out and grab one of the top RB's, I genuinely think we're winning the division this season with Fitzpatrick at the helm.
     
  14. Striking

    Striking Junior Member

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    Let's say management feels the same. Would you draft Tua at that spot? I would think not and with other QB hungry teams right behind good value should be achievable with #5. And still get a top OT at 6, 7...9.
     
  15. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Incredibly unlikely. Which is why they need to take a QB in this draft. They will be no higher than 10-12 next year.
     
  16. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Personally, I'd trade back and not draft Tua in the top-10 at all. Some mocks are showing him there with our 2nd pick and if so, then it makes more sense to roll the dice there. I have a feeling that the theme of the night for Miami will be value and we're going to play this draft as safe as possible- I think all the mega-move rumors are all BS.

    I could certainly be wrong, but nothing that I've seen from Grier or Flores makes me think they'll overpay for anything in this draft.
     
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