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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    Jesus who the **** cares about Tannehill!!
    He is a going into his second year as a Titan.
    Last I heard this was a dolphins forum.
     
    Bumrush likes this.
  2. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah. I mean, like to generalize this stuff.

    In reality, we had some of the questions dolphins teams of all time, had 3 head coaches for Tannehill, and how many offensive coordinators?

    You've got to stop making this argument man. We installed a new offense every other year. We were a dumpster fire, even if your averaged out statistics say that it's improbable. You're still resorting to averages and probability that tell you what's most likely to happen, and ignoring what actually did happen. We don't need formulas and zscores to know that Miami was a coaching carousel for Tannehill's entire tenure.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  3. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That's actually an argument against the team's being a ball-and-chain on him, because the greater the variation in his surroundings during his tenure, the less likely that all of it was bad to roughly the same degree.

    It's not like Rich Kotite was the head coach for all seven years and all of the surrounding personnel remained the same. There was lots of variation, but Tannehill's performance didn't vary significantly as a function of it.
     
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  4. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Again.

    3. Head. Coaches. Multiple OCs.

    If they were good, they wouldn't have gotten fired.

    Again. Reality vs what stats say is the most likely.

    We don't need stats to tell us what most likely will happen. We all saw the coaches come and go.
     
  5. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Maybe they didn't have enough talent. And maybe Tannehill was the main part of that problem.

    There's no way to determine the chicken or the egg in that scenario. The issue we have here is that there were people on a message board who speculated that the surroundings were the problem, and so that explanation acquired "truth" status simply because there were people who agreed about it. Your current position now assumes that to have been "truth," whereas we really don't know that.

    You need to realize that what you're assuming to be true is nothing more than a narrative constructed by some percentage of individuals on a message board. It has no truth status independent of that.
     
  6. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    And where are those coaches now? Besides Gase, who is muffing up another team, that happens to be our rival so "good on ya." Philbin was lucky to get an OL coaching job after what he did here.

    Yet that QB went on to all-pro level of play with a new team. He must have been a big part of the problem...

    I also look at it this way...what if Tannehill was Tampa's QB last year, with Godwin and Evans...can you imagine?!?!?!
     
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  7. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Adam Gase - 7-9 with the Jets and out of the playoffs. Potentially already on the hot seat.
    Ryan Tannehill - 7-3 with the Titans and a trip to the AFC Title Game. Comeback Player of the Year. #1 in QB efficiency in the league.

    I'm scoring that 1-0 in favor of Tannehill.
     
    Pauly likes this.
  8. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    It's entirely possible that the surroundings in Miami, including Adam Gase, were a ball-and-chain on Tannehill.

    How do you explain that the odds of Tannehill's being the league MVP in 2020 have been set at merely the mediocre level, among quarterbacks who performed far worse than he did in 2019, and that those odds have stayed at roughly that level since he signed his contract a month and a half ago?
     
  9. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Why do you assume change means the surroundings got better? Didn't I show you the OL carousel that continues to this day? Can't you take into account that:

    1. Philbin is on his third team since the Dolphins.
    2. Mike Sherman has never returned to the NFL.
    3. Bill Lazor was fired by the Bengals.
    4. Dan Campbell is a tight ends coach.
    5. Adam Gase (and Dowell Loggains) led the 32nd ranked offense last season.
    6. Clyde Christensen was the QB coach for the QB who threw 30 INTs last season (more than double his career average before last season). That QB is now a backup.

    Meanwhile, Tannehill tore it up.......
     
    PhinFan1968 likes this.
  10. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, it's almost we have (or had, depending on how well Flores does - I'm optimistic on him) a record of making bad coaching hires.
     
  11. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    It's not that the changes automatically meant something better. It's that in a league geared toward parity among teams, it's unlikely that teams can be consistently bad for extended periods of time.

    So if we don't know the degree to which the variation in surroundings was good or bad -- and again we don't, outside of a message board narrative -- we should err on the side that it's improbable that they were consistently bad.
     
  12. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Possible? LOL.....

    Now we're judging QBs by odds makers? This quote seems oddly prophetic:

     
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  13. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    The odds are irrelevant given the FACT that they WERE consistently bad for an extended period of time. They had the 5th pick in the draft and are revamping the OL AGAIN.

    Once again, you are standing in the rain without an umbrella discussing the long odds of 5 consecutive days of rain.

    Or, we could look at what actually happened. I listed the HCs and OCs that Tannehill played for. Which one has done better than Tannehill did in 2019?

    Aren't you sick of getting wet?
     
    resnor likes this.
  14. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Let me boil it down for you. In the regular season since leaving the Dolphins:

    1. Joe Philbin - 18-29-1 as Assistant HC, OC, and interim HC.
    2. Adam Gase - 7-9 as a HC
    3. Mike Sherman - can't get a job in the NFL. Was fired by the Montreal Alouettes of the CFL.
    4. Bill Lazor - 19-28-1 as QB coach and OC.
    5. Clyde Christiansen - 7-9 as a QB coach.


    Coaches - 51-75-2 - 0.40 winning %, 0 playoff appearances, 0 playoff wins.
    Tannehill - 7-3 - 0.70 winning %, 1 playoff appearance, 2 wins.
     
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  15. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    One more thing. I think it is safe to say that since leaving the Dolphins Tannehill has not only out performed every HC and OC that he had, he has also outperformed every offensive teammate that he ever played with.

    Think about that when trying to determine who weighed down who.
     
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  16. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    IF Tannehill was great there wouldn't have been that level of turnover. This is how the NFL works now. Great QB's mask mediocre coaches. Funny how Sparano looked like the savior when Chad Pennington finished 2nd in MVP voting and Gase was a rising star when Tannehill and Ajayi started playing at elite levels.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Certainly Vegas is aware of all that, and so why are Tannehill's odds of winning the league MVP in 2020 only mediocre?
     
  18. Phin McCool

    Phin McCool Well-Known Member

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    What went wrong.... :chuckle:
     
  19. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    This is finally your last stand? LOL. League MVP odds? Ha, ha, ha.....

    Tannehill has out performed every HC and OC that he had and every offensive teammate that he ever played with.

    But, but, the MVP odds!!

     
    Irishman likes this.
  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Apparently you’re aware that explaining that in the only way possible would force you to state a truth about the situation that’s incompatible with your position.
     
  21. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    And what exactly is my position? I have a feeling that you have created another straw man.
     
  22. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Or Tannehill was good enough to make those terrible teams be almost average, despite the bad coaching.
     
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  23. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Who cares?
     
  24. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Well perhaps I have it wrong. Your position as I understand it is that the vicissitudes of Tannehill's history allow us to determine his individual ability, which we can now definitively regard as above average.

    If that's indeed your position, then obviously it's inconsistent with the 2020 Vegas odds, which suggest that his ability is only mediocre.
     
  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Of course no one has to care, but you won't find a better predictor of future performance than Vegas odds, nor one with greater stakes involved.

    Compare that with what we're doing here, where nothing is on the line.

    In other words, when the stakes are highest and the greatest amount of information is considered by the greatest number of people, the verdict is that Tannehill's future performance is predicted to be nothing more than mediocre.

    There is a reason for that.
     
  26. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I'd argue that isnt how Vegas works.

    It has nothing to do with predicting his performances it has to do with manipulating perception of what a good bet is so that either way the house wins.
     
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  27. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Sure, and the odds regarding Tannehill's performance in 2020 haven't changed significantly in the past month and a half, since he signed his contract.

    So, obviously Vegas hasn't had to adjust the odds based on incoming cash flow that's inconsistent with the prediction that Tannehill will be nothing more than mediocre in 2020.
     
  28. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Sure, but it's based off of popular perception and not some underlying truth. Honestly it seems like the type of thing youd shy away from in an argument because it's not really based on hard stats.
     
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  29. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    But there's a reason the popular perception is what it is.

    When you venture outside of this message board and take a look at the popular perception associated with the highest possible stakes (Vegas), the perception is that Tannehill's future performance is most likely to be nothing more than mediocre.

    That's not the case for quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and Drew Brees. Their future performances are predicted to be stellar by comparison.

    So, the meaning ascribed to Tannehill's 2019 performance by some people on this message board vanishes as soon as we raise the stakes and incorporate a far greater number of personal opinions.

    Said differently, when the sample size in the "experiment" increases, and something valuable becomes at stake, the "effect" disappears.

    The flipside of that of course is that it's easy to conclude something favorable about Tannehill based on 2019 when nothing is on the line.
     
  30. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL. That is what you draw from the odds? LOL. What a simplistic view of the world.
     
  31. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Well clearly you have no idea how odds work...... If it were truly about predicting future performance, the odds wouldn't change with the amount of betting.
     
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  32. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Another post that suggests there's exciting enlightenment in store, with none provided....
     
  33. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    This is my most accurate prediction ever:

     
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  34. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Already done. It is tedious to have to educate you....
     
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  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You'd have to be able to show that his odds of winning MVP are drastically different from anyone elses odds. You'd also have to factor in that the team absolutely factors into winning an MVP. If you're on an average team, or below average team, it's going to be much harder to win MVP. So, if Vegas doesn't think the team is going to be a significant playoff contender, then I wouldn't be surprised to see his odds of winning MVP as being low
     
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  36. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah well, don't think that being cryptic has any real effect other than a weak attempt at obscuring your own fallacy.
     
  37. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    100% wrong.
     
  38. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    You also have to account for the fact that the bettors do not have equal knowledge and exposure to all the players. Tannehill was stuck on a crap team for years and got limited exposure. Much of the exposure he got was negative. Last season, he was on another smaller market team. The sudden switch to MVP odds as the new measure is a complete joke and further proof of his desperation.
     
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  39. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    100% correct.
     
  40. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL

     
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