Hopefully you don't need the math done on that when this is the case: https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/nfl-mvp-futures-odds Do you really believe the difference between Tannehill's MVP odds and those of Mahomes, Jackson, Wilson, and even Kyler Murray, are a function of the difference in how their teams are expected to perform in 2020, when Tannehill's team is coming off a loss in the AFC Championship?
Rather than continue with your distraction techniques, why not address this directly: Let me boil it down for you. In the regular season since leaving the Dolphins: 1. Joe Philbin - 18-29-1 as Assistant HC, OC, and interim HC. 2. Adam Gase - 7-9 as a HC 3. Mike Sherman - can't get a job in the NFL. Was fired by the Montreal Alouettes of the CFL. 4. Bill Lazor - 19-28-1 as QB coach and OC. 5. Clyde Christiansen - 7-9 as a QB coach. Coaches - 51-75-2 - 0.40 winning %, 0 playoff appearances, 0 playoff wins. Tannehill - 7-3 - 0.70 winning %, 1 playoff appearance, 2 wins.
When there is no more wiggle room for "FinFaninBuffalo," stay tuned for the empty forthcoming "LOL" post.
Sounds like a bona fide 2020 MVP candidate, eh? Certainly not someone who'd be regarded as only middle of the pack in that regard.
What you don't seem to understand is that I'm regarding 2019 as inconclusive regarding Tannehill's individual ability, whereas you seem to be regarding it as conclusive.
This just gets better and better: https://titanswire.usatoday.com/2020/04/10/tennessee-titans-ryan-tannehill-odds-nfl-mvp/ "Only time will tell if any of them reach the peak level of success to reward those who take an early gamble on them to win league MVP honors (which quite frankly doesn’t seem all that logical at this point), though."
I think it plays in. I also think that playing in Miami for 7 years has wrongly colored perception of Tannehill also, and that factors in to it also.
Well, just how credible should anyone consider you to be given the fact that you argued for years that the surroundings in Miami weren't bad. Now you are unwilling to debate that point.
But certainly you realize there are folks out there making a living off of angles like these. Why aren't they setting Vegas straight en masse, and/or with huge bets, and having it move the odds? The parsimonious explanation of course is that the typical person isn't anywhere near as sold as you are on Tannehill.
I'm not sure, I don't study Vegas and betting. But you feel free to watch the games via the betting wire, and I'll watch the actual games on TV. They're are many reasons someone might not win MVP, that have nothing to do with their actual level of play.
When the credibility of a single nobody poster on a message board is at issue, we're probably dealing with a subject that's inconclusive.
If someone held a gun to your head and had you bet some percentage of your belongings on Tannehill's performing significantly better next year than he did overall in Miami, what percentage of your belongings would you bet?
Why would we care about the popular opinion of people (the masses the odds are based around) who for the most part probably didnt watch a Titans game all year or if they did only saw a couple performances? Especially when you've said you dont care about the popular perception our fans have of previous iterations of the team who they actually watched every week.
I can conclusively say that Tannehill is capable of leading the league in passer rating and several other important passing statistics that are regularly used to evaluate QB play.
Please explain this: 1. Joe Philbin - 18-29-1 as Assistant HC, OC, and interim HC. 2. Adam Gase - 7-9 as a HC 3. Mike Sherman - can't get a job in the NFL. Was fired by the Montreal Alouettes of the CFL. 4. Bill Lazor - 19-28-1 as QB coach and OC. 5. Clyde Christiansen - 7-9 as a QB coach. Coaches - 51-75-2 - 0.40 winning %, 0 playoff appearances, 0 playoff wins. Tannehill - 7-3 - 0.70 winning %, 1 playoff appearance, 2 wins.
For all we know every average quarterback is capable of that if afforded the circumstances Tannehill had in 2019. That's why the issue regarding his individual ability and the effect of his surroundings on him (historically and in 2019) is inconclusive at present.
You should be able to support this theory by showing the huge number of seasons by average QBs that match Tannehill's performance. There should be a lot of them for you to propose such a theory, right? Or, do you have some evidence that the situation in Tennessee far exceeded anything the league has ever seen before? Not inconclusive to the Titans.
Those same people also likely didn't watch a Chiefs game, or a Saints game, or a Ravens game all year, yet they believe the quarterbacks of those teams have far better odds of winning the league MVP in 2020. The point is, why has Tannehill's 2019 season done essentially nothing to adjust the perceptions of his ability, such that he'd now be considered more than a mere average QB in predicting his future performance? Of course the only possible answer is that 86% of his career (six seasons of his seven as a starter) was markedly different than the other 14%, whereas the other QBs noted above have no such histories. People aren't sold on the basis of 14% of the sample of his work, nor should they be.
ESPN’s Jeff Darlington got the details on Tannehill’s contract, and it is a fairly big one. Tannehill’s new deal is for four years and is worth a total of $118 million, which comes out to $29.5 million per year. A whopping $91 million is in the form of total guarantees. Sure..... no changes to the perceptions of his ability ....... Or, the answer could be that the perception has changed where it matters most.
Your point is completely wrong. 2018 end of season QB Ranking on NFL.com: 2019 end of season QB Ranking on NFL.com: Even you have to admit that a QB ranking is an opinion of a QB's ability. You also have to admit that 6 is a higher ranking than 30. The only thing in between those two rankings is Tannehill's 2019 season.
Not atypical for QBs who haven't established themselves as significantly above-average: https://overthecap.com/player/matt-stafford/1060/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/jaypar...ichest-guarantee-in-nfl-history/#58cdf9e111f0 https://overthecap.com/player/carson-wentz/4715/
There is no one questioning whether his 2019 season was significantly better than his overall previous career. The question is, what is his individual ability? Individual ability is established over more than one season, so the question becomes, how will he perform in 2020 and beyond? His individual ability can't be established definitively until that future performance occurs. The point here is that the only place in which predictions in that regard actually have some stake in them (Vegas) place Tannehill well below where he would be on the basis of his 2019 performance alone.
Again, Vegas only cares about the split of bets and not whether their actual assessment is accurate. That alone makes any use of their lines for individual players, in my opinion, useless.It doesnt matter what they base their betting on, because it isn't meant to represent real numbers or the likelyhood of a future outcome. What people would bet on happening has no impact on what actually happens, is the point. It's all about manipulating the doubts people have, not accurate predictions.
I'd say the Titans have a significantly larger stake. I've consistently said Tannehill is a top 5-10 QB. Let's take a look at what the salaries say: 1. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson: $35 million 2. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger: $34 million 3. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers: $33.5 million 3. Rams QB Jared Goff: $33.5 million 5. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins: $33 million 6. Eagles QB Carson Wentz: $32 million 7. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott: $$30.1 million 8. Falcons QB Matt Ryan: $30 million 9. Titans QB Ryan Tannehill: $29.5 million 10. Colts QB Jacoby Brissett: $27.98 million
What do you think would happen if Vegas placed the odds of Patrick Mahomes's winning the league MVP in 2020 where Tannehill's are? Do you think money would come pouring in on that and Vegas would adjust its odds accordingly, or would Vegas just sit there unresponsive, with the same odds? That's the point here -- people's perceptions when there is something at stake on them (money) have done nothing to move the odds regarding Tannehill's 2020 performance since he signed his contract a month and a half ago.
I'm willing to hear a case that Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, and Matthew Stafford have established themselves as significantly above-average. I don't see you making one, however. The null hypothesis is that they're average, so I'll go with that.
I'm still waiting for your explanation of the performances of the ex-Dolphins coaches, OL, and other offensive players relative to Tannehill's success. Why won't you address it?
Looking at the full odds of everyone, there is no way I'd take it as any sort of definitive list or supporting evidence for anything. The odds as they stand now are laughable for more than just Tannehill.
You're a stats guy Brad. Look up the numbers. Take emotion completely out of the equation and just crunch the numbers. Drew Brees during his tenure in San Diego vs Ryan Tannehill's tenure in Miami. I think the basic numbers are going to surprise you.
We've addressed that repeatedly, implicitly, throughout the thread. It could be that his surroundings in Miami were average, and his surroundings in Tennessee were exceptionally good. The overall extra-Tannehill performances of the coaches you outlined above aren't significantly different from average, for example.
Any player's odds that are "laughable" should move quickly, as the people who make a living betting on sports discover an angle with which to exploit Vegas. Again, if you placed Mahomes's odds where Tannehill's are, so much money would pour in on Mahomes, and so quickly, that the odds would change dramatically overnight. Tannehill's poor odds remain stationary, however. This really isn't very complicated and doesn't warrant much analysis. People simply aren't sold on Tannehill based on his 2019 performance alone. It's that simple.
40% winning % is average? They have a LOWER winning % than Tannehill had in Miami. 1. Joe Philbin - 24-28 in Miami. 18-29-1 Post Miami. 2. Adam Gase - 23-25 in Miami. 7-9 with the Jets. 3. Bill Lazor - 12-14 in Miami. 19-28-1 as QB coach and OC. 4. Clyde Christensen - 16-16 in Miami. 7-9 as a QB coach. Every single HC and OC that Tannehill had owns a BETTER record with Tannehill than after they left Miami. Tannehill has a better winning % since leaving Miami. The ONLY logical conclusion is that coaching. not QB play, was the problem in Miami from 2012 - 2018. Period.
Yeah there was no emotion involved in what I said, and what I said is true, at least since 1978 when the passing game changed. Here are the z-scores (you know that was coming!) for Brees with San Diego vs. Tannehill with Miami: Brees 2002: -0.3741 2003: -0.9548 2004: 1.6826 2005: 0.8364 Tannehill 2012: -0.8259 2013: -0.3630 2014: 0.3940 2015: -0.1698 2016: 0.3739 2018: -0.0167 Brees played at an elite level or close to it depending on your definition of "elite" in 2004 with SDG (he was ranked #3 in passer rating that year). So there's no comparison from the numbers alone between the two QB's. Remember, during Brees's time with SDG the average passer rating was around 80 while it's closer to 90 for much of Tannehill's tenure (since 2014).
