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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Mahomes's z-score was 1.41, so yes I'd consider him as having performed significantly above average.
     
  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    First, I've never even said the Titans' surroundings in 2019 were exceptionally good in a definitive sense. I've said that's a possible explanation for Tannehill's performance.
     
  3. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Or just call him Shouright and he will block you so you don't have to
     
  4. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    And I've demonstrated that it was not. Can you agree to stop raising it as a possible explanation unless you can provide some support?
     
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  5. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    :sidelol: :sidelol:
     
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  6. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    What will you attribute last year's performance to if your prediction that his passer rating will drop by about 12 points in 2020 is correct?

    12 points is substantial. It likely wouldn't put him down into the average range in 2020, but something would have to explain the 2019 performance if it stood apart to such a degree.
     
  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Well first we would have to adjust his score.
     
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  8. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Same thing that I attribute the fluctuation by Mahomes to, normal fluctuation. That is why I asked. Your inclination is to ignore the Mahomes fluctuation and question a Tannehill fluctuation.
     
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  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    If a 12-point fluctuation in passer rating from one season to the next is indeed normal, we need a better measure of quarterback performance.

    A 12-point fluctuation is roughly two points greater than the 2019 standard deviation among teams. If a measure is that unstable normally, it's garbage, at least in terms of reliably measuring a quarterback's ability.

    The question of course is whether a 12-point fluctuation is indeed "normal." If it isn't, then again, something would have to explain the extremity of Tannehill's 2019 performance.

    So you either have to find a new measure or you have to explain 2019 in terms of passer rating. You can't do neither.

    This is partly why I've been toying with other measures during this thread. Not in some effort to discount Tannehill, but to explain 2019 in more accurate terms.
     
  10. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I can see how fluctuations are strange, when you look at football players like robots, and not like humans.
     
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  11. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    Both; in each case it was the team that made the difference.

    One allowed him to demonstrate his worth, the other held him back.

    The biggest exception was the end of his first year with Gase. He was lighting it up until he was injured and stayed injured for two years out of the next three.
     
  12. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Says the guy who uses Tannehill's 2019 passer rating as evidence to support his beliefs.

    If you're going to consider passer rating a valid measure in support of your beliefs, you can't ignore fluctuations in it that question whether it's measuring what you're saying it's measuring. Can't have it both ways.
     
  13. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You love strawman arguments.

    2019 was vindication of my beliefs, not proof.

    You said prior to 2019, that 2019 would show what Tannehill was. When the results came in opposite of what you expected, you pivoted, and are now saying 2020 will tell us who Tannehill is.
     
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  14. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    There is nothing wrong with the measure. It is still one of the best predictors of wins.

    I find it remarkable that you didn't already know that passer rating at the top of the scale fluctuates that much. This is evidence that you are only looking at Tannehill and are holding him up against standards that just don't exist.

    Here are some year to year fluctuations from guys considered great QBs.

    Wilson - 2015 to 2016: 18 point variation
    Brady - 2015 to 2016: 10 point variation
    Mahomes - 2018 to 2019: 8 point variation
    Brees - 2009 to 2010: 19 point variation
    Rodgers - 2014 to 2015: 20 point variation
    Roethlisberger - 2008 to 2009: 24 point variation
     
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  15. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You'll have to pull up that post. I've never restricted the measurement of a QB's ability to just one season.
     
  16. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Fluctuation is expected for all QBs, so it's not a problem when Tannehill had fluctuation.

    Again, this isn't Madden where the rating determines the outcome. Even the worst starting NFL QB is elite.
     
  17. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Really? Now you're going to argue that you didn't say that 2019 would settle the Tannehill debate?
     
  18. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    It doesn't measure a QBs ability. It measures the efficiency of the passing offense. That fluctuates based on many things, including QB performance, other offensive personnel performance, scheme, OC performance, opponent, how well your defense is playing, etc, etc, etc.

    But, in order to achieve elite level efficiency, the QB needs to be playing at a high level. So, we can use a passer rating of 117.5 as evidence that the QB is playing well, but we cannot necessarily use a rating of 92 as evidence that he is not or that his play isn't being negatively influenced by things outside of his control. You have to look at context. There is no other choice. You WILL NOT find a single number that isolates the QBs performance in all cases, let alone his ability.
     
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  19. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Okay, brad, you know I'm not a fan of your z-score method, but never have I ridiculed the work you put in to it. With that being said, I ask that you too show the same respect for the work I just put into this.

    Below is a year by year comparison of Drew Brees in San Diego and Ryan Tannehill in Miami. I'm not computing any formula, just doing a comparison of HARD numbers...WHAT each of them had done.

    Brees vs Tannehill during their previous teams’ tenures

    Year 1 Att Comp % Att/G yds Avg Yds/G TD TD% Int Int% QBR

    DB 526 320 60.8 32.9 3284 6.2 205.2 17 3.2 16 3.0 76.9

    RT 484 282 58.2 30.2 3294 6.8 205.9 12 2.5 13 2.7 76.1



    Year 2 Att Comp % Att/G yds Avg Yds/G TD TD% Int Int% QBR

    DB 356 205 57.6 32.4 2108 5.9 191.6 11 3.1 15 4.2 67.5

    RT 588 355 60.4 36.8 3913 6.7 244.6 24 4.1 17 2.9 81.7



    Year 3 Att Comp % Att/G yds Avg Yds/G TD TD% Int Int% QBR

    DB 400 262 65.5 26.7 3159 7.9 210.6 27 6.8 7 1.8 104.8

    RT 590 392 66.4 36.9 4045 6.9 252.8 27 4.6 12 2.0 92.8



    Year 4 Att Comp % Att/G yds Avg Yds/G TD TD% Int Int% QBR

    DB 500 323 64.6 31.2 3576 7.2 223.5 24 4.8 15 3.0 89.2

    RT 586 363 61.9 36.6 4208 7.2 263.0 24 4.1 12 2.0 88.7



    Year 5 Att Comp % Att/G yds Avg Yds/G TD TD% Int Int% QBR

    RT 389 261 67.1 29.9 2995 7.7 230.4 19 4.9 12 3.1 93.5



    Year 6 Att Comp % Att/G yds Avg Yds/G TD TD% Int Int% QBR

    RT 274 176 64.2 24.9 1979 7.2 179.9 17 6.2 9 3.3 92.7



    First year with new team

    Year 1 Att Comp % Att/G yds Avg Yds/G TD TD% Int Int% QBR

    DB 554 356 64.3 34.6 4418 8.0 276.1 26 4.7 11 2.0 96.2

    RT 286 201 70.3 23.8 2742 9.6 228.5 22 7.7 6 2.1 117.5

    Now certain numbers that stick out to me, when it comes to quarterback production is completion percentage and average yards per completion. Are you accurately throwing the ball and how far are you moving the ball each time you throw it. Now there are variances in the comparison above but all in all, Brees and Tannehill are nearly identical.

    For the naysayers of Tannehill who always seem to assert there isn't enough data to accurately evaluate Tannehill, well there you go. A comparison of one of the greatest quarterbacks in the league versus Ryan Tannehill during their early years.

    --CRAP, I just KNEW those tabs weren't going to carry over....damn it
     
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  20. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Whether the z-scores bear out or not, your point is well taken. Brees in SD was no where near the player he became in NO. He may have performed a bit better than Tannehill, but not by a huge amount and, IMO, under far better circumstances. He was playing with a HOF RB and TE. He was getting sacked roughly half as often as Tannehill.

    Will Tannehill have the career that Brees has had? Probably not, but it is not impossible.
     
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  21. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    How are those anywhere close to identical?

    For example, in year 3 both had 27 TD's, which you highlighted. But Brees did that with 3159 passing attempts while Tannehill needed 4045. You conveniently didn't highlight the TD% difference of 6.8% vs. 4.6%. Same issue with all the other years really.. look at TD%, which is far better than looking at TD's because it takes into account attempts and there's a vast difference, sometimes better for Tannehill, sometimes better for Brees.

    And the Y/A aren't similar either. Also, why do you only highlight some stats but ignore others that argue against what you're saying? You're just deceiving yourself by doing that.

    And I'll say it again: raw stats without adjusting don't allow for a decent comparison. The nature of the game changes over time and you shouldn't ignore that. If you think raw stats are sufficient, then what about this raw stat: Tannehill's passer rating in Miami = 87, Marino's passer rating in Miami = 86.4. Therefore, Tannehill in Miami = Marino!

    Finally, it's not much work to just link to the stats:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TannRy00.htm
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BreeDr00.htm

    So I'm going to dismiss this due to cherry picking and not adjusting for era.
     
  22. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Coming in 3rd in passer rating (Brees in 2004) is NOT anything close to what Tannehill did. No, they're not comparable.
     
  23. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Sorry disagree. Passer rating is a measure of the whole passing offense (and the context in which they are operating). I consider the achievement of a 93.5 passer rating on the 2016 Dolphins a similar achievement to a 104.8 passer rating on the 2004 Chargers. The Chargers were a far far better overall team. They had a better running game, better OL, better defense, and better coaching.
     
  24. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    And looking at the stats and assuming the reflect only on the QB doesn't allow for a decent comparison either.
     
  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Sure, but something can be a great predictor of team wins, without necessarily being a valid measure of quarterbacks' ability. To illustrate that distinction with an extreme example, points allowed are a great predictor of wins, but they're likely an extremely poor measure of quarterbacks' ability.

    Right, but we know the QBs above are great because their performance varies at a level significantly higher than the ones not considered great, over several seasons (in Mahomes's case however it's because he's done nothing but great, for more than one season).

    Andy Dalton's performance fluctuated roughly 23 points upward from 2014 to 2015, and roughly 15 points downward from 2015 to 2016, yet we don't consider him a great QB because his career performance overall has varied at a far lower level.

    What you're doing above is putting Tannehill into the "great" group and then explaining a fluctuation in his performance on the basis that other great QBs have fluctuated similarly. We don't yet know whether Tannehill is in the "great" group or the "Andy Dalton" group.

    The problem with Tannehill for a while will be that he had seven seasons (six as a starter) in Miami that act as a ball-and-chain on assessments of what he did in 2019 and what he does going forward. If and when he drops 12 points in passer rating in 2020, then based on his career in Miami, how do you know you won't get another 12-point drop in 2021?
     
  26. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I didn't even think Tannehill would play in 2019.
     
  27. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    When you can predict passer ratings based on looking at the roster, then I'll give your view some merit. But you've never demonstrated you can do this. And the goal of statistical analysis is to determine what can be logically inferred from the stats, not to see if you can conjure up some hypothesis for the stats that supports your view when there are tons of other hypotheses consistent with the same stats that disagree.

    Point is.. from the stats alone Tannehill in Miami is very different from Brees in SDG. What the reasons behind that are can be debated, but the stats are not similar to each other.
     
    Last edited: May 6, 2020
  28. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL........ Tannehill MUST BE THE PROBLEM!!!!! WE MUST PREDICT THE WORST!!!!!!

    Bottom line, Tannehill has shown the ability. Period. Let's see what happens.
     
  29. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I didn't say the stats were similar. I said the achievements were similar.

    We you can isolate the QB completely from the rest of the team, we can talk.

    Until then, we can agree to disagree.
     
  30. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You were disputing my argument against TDK, and HE argued the stats are similar. So you need to make clear you're not arguing against what I said before pointing out there are different ways of interpreting the stats.

    Point is.. the stats aren't similar.
     
  31. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    And when he started to play, you predicted a drop off week by week by week. You were even doing some play by play critiques..... Eventually you stopped and switch to trying to explain away the success, then decided that "we" needed another year.....
     
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  32. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    A. I didn't respond to you, you responded to me. If you want to argue my point, then you should have addressed what I wrote, not what you interpreted.

    B. Sorry if this was unclear:

    Sorry disagree. Passer rating is a measure of the whole passing offense (and the context in which they are operating). I consider the achievement of a 93.5 passer rating on the 2016 Dolphins a similar achievement to a 104.8 passer rating on the 2004 Chargers. The Chargers were a far far better overall team. They had a better running game, better OL, better defense, and better coaching.

    It is not unclear to me.
     
    Last edited: May 6, 2020
  33. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    When you say TDK's point is well taken.. and his point is that the stats are similar.. the inference is clear.
     
  34. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    The NFL record books don't adjust for eras.
     
  35. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    They will someday, just like baseball now uses WAR and all kinds of adjusted stats. In fact, WAR is the ultimate in adjusted stats and that is so influential now that guys like Trout become MVP's even when their teams don't do well.

    Don't attack z-scores just because NFL statistical analysis is behind the curve. These are standard methods of statistical analysis and they'll eventually change the way people view things, just like it's happened in many other fields.
     
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  36. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Well brad, I have always been respectful of you but that was quite rude of you. I didn’t cherry pick anything. Had I cherry picked I would have posted JUST identical stats which I didn’t do. I ousted it all and highlighted a few things that were striking in my mind. So again, thank you for being rude, something I’ve never been to you.

    Secondly, adjusting for era? I guess the game changed leaps and bounds in the 4/5 year difference between Brees’ drafting and Tannehill’s drafting
     
  37. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    It changed about 5-10 passer rating points on average, and about 5% increase in completion percentage. And yes it's cherry picking when you don't even mention TD%.

    As far as being rude, it's not deliberate. I'm just pointing out obvious flaws in your argument.
     
  38. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    They still don't adjust the records in the record books.
     
  39. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    And that's a slight on them, not something you should be getting behind as an indicator of the validity of something.
     
  40. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    So, you ignored the rest of the post...... so that you could respond to a straw man. Okay. You also ignored the rest of the years.....

    Drew Brees passer rating in SDG (on a better team) - 84.9
    Ryan Tannehill in Miami - 87.
     
    Last edited: May 6, 2020
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