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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You are claiming that Tannehill is dependent on Henry running well. Even IF true, you'd have to show that other QBs aren't for it to have any validity In the discussion.

    I also think you'd have a hard time convincing anyone that when you say "high volume" it means as relates to overall plays.
     
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  2. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Also, a cursory Google search and looking through a couple articles shows me that the general understanding of "high volume passing" is QBs who throw the ball as lot, not QBs who throw more than the team runs.

    So you can use your own definition of "high volume" if you wish, but you'll probably encounter many arguments with regards to that definition.
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2020
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  3. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    In 2019, Cam Newton averaged 44.5 attempts per game, 1st in the NFL. Tannehill averaged 23.8 for 45th in the NFL.

    But you would argue that Tannehill could be considered a volume passer?

    I think you're confusing passing volume with being unbalanced on offense.
     
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  4. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The average percentage of pass dropbacks per game in the NFL in 2019 was 58.8%. Tannehill's percentage of pass dropbacks in 2019 was 2.14 standard deviations below that. That's a remarkable difference. Tannehill dropped back to pass the ball far less frequently than the average QB in the league in 2019.

    So Tannehill was a low-volume passer overall, but on the occasions when his passing volume was high, his performance decreased to a degree far greater than that of the average QB. And he's exhibited that pattern throughout his career.

    So, the finding is that Tennessee got him to play as well as he did in 2019 in part by limiting his percentage of pass dropbacks, by essentially having Derrick Henry shoulder the predominance of the offensive load.
     
  5. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I've already done that. Here is post #6769 from this thread, in which ironically you were a participant:

    When you get information, take it in and allow it to affect your thinking from then on. Don't come back weeks later and state the same stuff, saying somebody hasn't shown something.

    It gets frustrating when the message board is nothing but circular arguments, especially when the above information represented hours of work on my part, while you just sit there and spout off your personal opinion, with no work behind it.
     
  6. Phin McCool

    Phin McCool Well-Known Member

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    My prediction is that it will eventually be merged into the 'Titans to Bench Ryan Tannehill'; 'Titans to Trade Ryan Tannehill'; '(insert team name here) to Start Ryan Tannehill'; '(insert team name here) Cuts Ryan Tannehill'; 'Ryan Tannehill Retires'; 'HOF Snubs Ryan Tanehill'; 'HOF Snubs Ryan Tannehill Again' threads, by which time the single thread will have either developed such a dense mass, that it will have collapsed in on itself, forming a black hole, sucking in the entire solar system and causing the sun to go super nova Or it will have been able to assimilate every aspect of human culture throughout the history of the planet and will have developed its own collective consciousness and artificial intelligence and will be the hive mind, linked by a neural sub-space network to millions of former human drones as it desperately tries to acheive 158.3 .

    Either way, we're screwed..!
     
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  7. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Not surprised you're bowing out at this point. It was precisely the point at which you had to either 1) acknowledge a career-long weakness of Tannehill's that was highly compensated for in 2019, or 2) attempt to refute that with your (self-promoted) analysis of game film, which is where you typically retreat to when the numbers clearly don't comport with your position, and then have the validity of that analysis scrutinized with regard to its correlation with Tannehill's performance measures.

    In other words, you were in quite the corner.

    At any rate, take care. No hard feelings.
     
  8. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I sent you a PM that shows the Titans pass/run ratio was driven by the success or failure of the offense in the first half of games. It was not a driver of success. Using a low percentage of passing plays was not leading to success it was a direct result of the success. From weeks 7-16, their pass/run ratio in the first half of games was exactly 55/45 in both the games they won and the games they lost.

    Your theory is completely wrong.
     
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  9. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Originally sent this via PM to the guy, but here goes:

    Don't really want to continue the debate but I came across a few articles yesterday. Rather than continue to rehash old arguments, I am sending you the links here. I don't expect them to change your mind as much as explain my perspective. Bring on 2020.

    These two explain my opinion of Tannehill nicely.

    https://www.thephinsider.com/2018/8...ll-be-limited-to-30-passing-attempts-per-game

    https://www.musiccitymiracles.com/2...playoff-run-cant-be-measured-in-passing-yards

    Here are a few that are just interesting in general:

    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/finding-optimal-passrun-ratio

    https://thepowerrank.com/2018/09/24/the-surprising-truth-about-passing-and-rushing-in-the-nfl/

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/you-called-a-run-on-first-down-youre-already-screwed/

    And here is a link to a dynamic chart of run/pass ratios along with their effectiveness. Since not all QBs played every game, you have to filter out the correct weeks to get data when specific QBs are playing but it is interesting to compare Tenn in weeks 1-6 vs 7-16.

    1-6

    [​IMG]

    7-16
    [​IMG]

    What you see is a shift from a 56/44 pass/run ratio to 51/49. IMO, that shift is because the offense was so much more effective with Tannehill at QB. The 52% effectiveness on passing plays in that span was tied for second in the league with by far the highest YPA. The two factors combined: the passing success rate/YPA and the rushing success rate/YPC combined to form a very efficient offense. Tenn ran the third fewest plays in the league in 2019. Only two terrible offenses (Pitt and Wash) ran fewer.

    BTW, in the first two quarters with Tannehill, they passed the ball 55% of the time. In the 2nd half it was 48% of the time. They were getting the lead with more of a passing attack and sitting on the lead with the run.

    For games 7-16:
    In their wins, it was 55/45 in the first half and 40/60 in the second half.
    In their losses, it was 55/45 in the first half and 64/36 in the second half.

    The difference is that in the losses, the first half passing success rate was only 35% and 8.5 YPA as compared to 55% success rate and 10.3 YPA in the wins. Similarly, the running game success rate in the first half of losses was 38% and it was 51% in the first half of wins.

    It was the offense's first half performance that set the stage for wins and losses. The complete game run/pass ratio was a result of offensive effectiveness (or lack of it), not a driver of it.

    https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/situational-run-pass-ratios--off-.html
     
  10. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Anytime you let a team come down from a 17 pt lead and let the enemy score 35 on you. It isnt the QBs fault, its the defense.
     
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  11. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    This video proves your argument wrong.

     
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  12. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That's a lot of good research and work and I appreciate contributions of that nature, as opposed to personal opinions with no objective support of them.

    However, take a look at what the Titans did in weeks 7 through 17 (Tannehill's regular season starts, factoring in the bye week) in the second halves of games, when trailing by more than one score (at least 9 points).

    Their pass-run ratio was 57/43. The league average in that situation in 2019 was 71/29.

    When tied or trailing in the second halves of games during that period, their pass-run ratio was 61/39, whereas the league average in 2019 was 67/33.

    The point is that the Titans had the luxury -- whether leading or trailing -- of having one of the league's most effective running backs shoulder more of the offensive load than is typical in the league.

    When leading in games, they weren't forced to continue to pass the ball to keep the lead, as are some teams that have no effective running game to take over. When tied or trailing, and especially when trailing by more than one score, they could still keep the onus off of their quarterback to mount a comeback anywhere near as much as the average team, by virtue of the effectiveness of their running back.

    All of the above enables Tannehill to play within a role in which he isn't expected carry the offense, which is what, historically, has enabled him to play far better (i.e., low-volume passing games).

    Nobody is arguing he didn't play well in 2019. But he played well within that role, one in which the burden of offensive performance for the team was distributed well beyond just him. The question becomes, can they sustain that role for him in future years, because his performance very likely depends on it.
     
  13. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Your conclusions are wrong. You won’t convince me otherwise.
     
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  14. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I tell you what it shows, Tannehill is a tough SOB. There is no chance in hell that he fails to tackle the LB on a fumble recovery like the play that Tenn scored on. He runs over a defender on another scramble. Then he trucks the DB on the 2 point conversion.
     
    Last edited: May 9, 2020
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  15. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    All of this talk of high passer volume versus low passer volume and that make “this” quarterback better than “that” quarterback is getting pretty stupid and I’m going to illustrate why and hopefully put this idiotic debate to rest.

    The Miami Dolphins just said goodbye to our legendary head coach Don Shula this week...but what made HIM a legend? He didn’t play with the Dolphins. He wasn’t on the field, in the huddle, taking snaps and handing off or throwing the ball. He was the head coach...on the sidelines, calling plays and sending in personnel. So why was he a legend?

    He was a legend because of HIS abilities...his football schemes, systems and leadership that made his teams a success. Early in his career Shula was a hard nosed, run the ball, smash mouthed defensive type of coach. He obtained players that suited HIS scheme and as a result, he was in 4 Super Bowl appearances in 8 years with 2 different teams. And after Miami’s loss to the Redskins in the Super Bowl in 82 and after the Dolphins drafted Marino, Shula was smart enough to draft Duper and Clayton to team up with Nat Moore and build the IL with Stephenson, Webb and Simms to adapt his scheme to suit the remarkable once in a lifetime talent he had in Marino. Shula did that guys, not Marino and if you think Marino would have been successful with receivers like Bess, Hartline...with an IL anchored with Cognito and Martin, you’re fooling yourselves.

    So the reason for the Shula rant? You’re praying or condemning Mahomes, Tannehill, Brees, Jackson et al without taking into account the success these players have had has been based on their COACHES schemes and systems. These coaches went and got players that fit THEIR schemes and who fit into THEIR systems. Think I’m full of it? Please, somebody tell me that if Tom Brady was a Miami Dolphin he would be as successful in Miami as he was and I’ll direct you to the Narcotics Anonymous hotline.

    These players are playing their coach’s system and the system is what is being successful or failing, not so much the individual players. Great coaches bring out great talent and crap coaches can destroy great players.
     
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  16. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I just took a look at red zone pass/run ratios in the first half. The league average is 56/44. The Titans with Tannehill in the regular season were 66/34 with an astonishing 68% success rate. The league average success rate was 39%.

    So in the most critical and difficult area of the field to throw in, When the game outcome is still very much in doubt, the Titans decided to put the ball in Tannehill’s hand the second most often. The most often was Chicago at 70%. Tannehill was, by far, the most effective QB. The second highest was 57% success rate.

    If a team with a good running game were trying to protect the QB, the red zone is where they would do it. The Titans did the exact opposite. They completely trusted Tannehill and were rewarded for it with a top red zone offense.
     
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  17. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    Hey Mods why the hell is this thread still in Dolphins? he’s not been on the team for over a year now, He’s not a dolphin, he’s not a fan favorite even. Please move this thread so tired of seeing this as top post when he’s not a dolphin!!!!

    let’s focus on the new team and let this thread go to other AFC or somewhere outside my beloved Dolphins Forum!!
     
  18. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The situation you're talking about above constituted 19 pass attempts and 10 runs -- 29 plays -- for Tennessee in 2019.

    I strongly doubt something approaching statistical significance, as opposed to random variation, could be determined on the basis of that low a number of plays.

    On the other hand, the situation I mentioned above -- Tannehill's starts in 2019, second half, trailing by 9 or more points (two or more scores) -- constituted 106 plays, 60 passes and 46 runs. Again the Titans' 57% pass rate in that situation was well below the league average of 71%.

    So when the average team turned the game over to its quarterback to help mount a comeback through the air, as we've all seen time and time again in the NFL, the Titans instead relied far more on their run game.

    That's a pretty clear message about the confidence a team has in its QB's ability to carry the team, and it was implemented even more strongly in the first two games of the playoffs, when Tannehill's percentage of pass dropbacks was six standard deviations below the league average.

    So as the stakes got higher in terms of winning -- whether trailing by 9 or more points (at least two scores) in the second half in the regular season, or in the playoffs in general -- the Titans behaved less and less like the average team in terms of the emphasis on the quarterback and the passing game.
     
  19. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    One minute and 36 seconds of one game out of 13 certainly doesn't disprove the point that the Titans in 2019 relied far more on their run game than they did Tannehill, in comparison to the average team.
     
  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Those are good points, and they fit quite nicely as well with the point I'm making -- the Titans' coaches were smart enough to prevent Tannehill from experiencing a role on the team (high-volume passing, with the burden on him to carry the offense) that was historically associated with a far larger than normal performance decrement on his part.

    Again, however, the question becomes, regardless of the Titans' coaches' intent in 2020, will they be able to replicate that role for Tannehill? His success depends on it.
     
  21. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    By the way, the above is no different for Lamar Jackson than it is for Tannehill. The difference with Jackson is that his low-volume passing throughout 2019 was facilitated by his own running, whereas Tannehill's was facilitated by the running of Derrick Henry.

    Either way, they both face a situation in 2020 in which their continued success hinges on being able to pass the ball in a low-volume manner.

    In fact, one bet I would make (with actual money) is that Lamar Jackson comes nowhere close to winning the league MVP again. The stars aren't going to align for him once again.
     
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  22. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    And when trailing by 9 or more in the 4th quarter of OT, the Titans threw 71% of the time with the highest success rate and the highest YPA. So as the stakes got HIGHER they relied on the QB more and led the league in success. Sorry you’re still wrong.
     
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  23. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    The difference you miss is that Tannehill’s success rate And high YPA reduced the number of pass attempts necessary. You are criticizing him for his own success. LOL.

    here is your math: Team 1 takes 3 throws to travel 30 yards, team 2 takes 5. Mixed in the middle is 2 runs for 10 yards. They both travel 40 yards. Team A uses 3/2. Team B uses 5/2. You claim team B has the better QB......

    makes no sense.
     
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  24. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That was still 8% less than the league norm of 79%.

    Again, at the times when teams typically turn the game over to their QBs, the Titans were making damned sure to maintain greater balance than the average team, despite having the league leader in passer rating.
     
  25. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    If that were their intent, why would the pass ratio be higher in the first half? Why not use 52/48 or 51/49 from the start of the game? Your logic is fatally flawed.
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2020
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  26. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Easily made up for by the EFFECTIVENESS of the plays......
     
  27. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Now I’m done. I’ve posted enough facts to refute your erroneous conclusions. Carry on.
     
  28. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    When the number of plays is considered (we're talking 42 passes for Tannehill in this situation), we can identify several QBs whose efficiency wasn't significantly different from Tannehill's, but whose teams used them far more heavily.

    Drew Brees for example was no less efficient than Tannehill in that situation (fourth quarter, down by 9+) in terms of YPA, yet the Saints threw the ball 93% of the time to Tennessee's 71%.
     
  29. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL..... down to Brees now are we? I win.
     
  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Tennessee's percentage of passes was lower than the league norm in the first half as well. The league norm was 59% for weeks 7 through 17 in 2019, and Tennessee's was 55%.

    I'm not sure why you can't just admit that Tennessee had a strategy of limiting Tannehill's pass dropbacks. That strategy permeates their games, regardless of situation and regardless of the stakes involved.

    The guy has a weakness historically of having his performance plummet far more than that of the average QB in high-volume passing games. For Tennessee's coaches to have the strategy of keeping him from shouldering the load and being the focal point of the offense at all costs was brilliant.
     
  31. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Why should the difference between Brees's usage down 9+ in the fourth quarter and Tannehill's be a stark 93% to 71% when Tannehill's passer rating was higher than Brees's?
     
  32. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Again made up for by EFFECTIVENESS. No need to throw 5 passes when 3 will do.
     
  33. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL. I can’t make you understand greater efficiency. You’ll just have to move on.

    random variability? How many throws difference are we talking about 5? 10?

    Again, we are down to Brees......
     
  34. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Couldn't help but notice he ignored this post.
     
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  35. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Brees's efficiency wasn't significantly different from Tannehill's in that situation (down 9+ in the fourth quarter), yet the Saints had him pass the ball 93% of the time to Tannehill's 71%.
     
  36. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Wasn’t significantly different in this case is code for worse, I’m guessing.....
     
  37. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL. He’s frantic right now.
     
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  38. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    What you all don't seem to get is that he performed in that manner within the role of having his load limited, even in situations in which teams typically dial up the load on their QBs.

    So when you say something along the lines of "but he played in X manner," well of course he did. He was functioning within a system that was limiting his load, thereby enhancing his performance.

    When the load increased, his performance plummeted to a degree well beyond that of the average QB.

    Put the player's performance into the context in which it occurred.
     
  39. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    More like his EFFECTIVENESS reduced the need for so many throws. That's what happens when you lead the league in passer rating and YPA.

    Then there is down and distance consideration, personnel groupings, defensive formations, etc, etc..... the game is far more complex than you are willing to admit.

    If an offense has a pass called and the QB checks into a run because of the defense's personnel and formation, is that a sign that the coach didn't trust the QB?

    You cannot get to what you want. You just can't.
     
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  40. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    But when the number of throws was high-volume, his performance plummeted to a degree well beyond that of the average QB, as it has throughout his career.

    Explain that in terms of "effectiveness."
     

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