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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    We can revisit all this during the 2020 season. No sense in continuing it here now. Everybody knows what everybody else's position is.

    Take care folks.
     
  2. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I vote we not bring it up during the 2020 season.
     
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  3. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    IMO it's about having certain elite traits. I generally find that at any given time there are probably 10-12 QBs capable of play at an elite level for an extended time (say more than 6 games or so). If you're talking about one game then the number would be much higher.
     
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  4. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    IMO that's what too many people don't understand (numbers and stats don't always tell the full story). When he was in Miami there was so many instances where he did everything right on a play and it still went to ****. There were too many times he made passes that were both perfect and difficult. Plays that only two or three other QBs could have made. That's why it was easy to predict that if he went to a better situation his production would improve. When I watched Tannehill in Tennessee last season, I didn't see him playing better. He was basically doing the same things he did for Miami. The production was better b/c the situation improved. It was far from ideal or a perfect situation as I expect some will claim. He was just put in lose/lose scenarios less often.
     
  5. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    If that's accurate then that's quite a substantial percentage. You're talking between 31% and 38% of the league who are capable of putting together a stretch of games of the kind Tannehill had in 2019, if afforded the necessary surroundings and circumstances. By definition, then, the feat doesn't distinguish elite from average QBs, since nowhere near 31% to 38% of the QBs in the league are elite.

    That's consistent with the statistical data, mentioned previously, that an 11-game stretch of Tannehill's kind in 2019 doesn't reliably distinguish elite from average QBs.

    So folks, I'm afraid the premise of the thread has been shot, in that what some of us are regaling as a distinctive feat on Tannehill's part, indicative of his ability at the elite level, isn't really distinctive in that regard, as indicated by the relevant statistical data and by the resident football authority.

    Again, the feat is certainly distinctive with regard to Tannehill's own individual history (i.e., it's far better than anything he's done before), but not with regard to the comparison between him and other QBs (i.e., it doesn't establish him as elite).

    As has been said many times here, we need more data.

    Anyway, I'm done for now. There's nothing more to be said at this point.
     
  6. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Nobody ever claimed Tannehill was elite. All along I've said he was above average. That he was a top 10 QB capable of putting up top 5 production in a better system. The only premise that's been shot is that Tannehill was just an average QB and that his production in Tennessee was unlikely.

    For me an elite QB would have multiple elite traits. Tannehill has elite accuracy. But his processing speed is about average. He makes above average decisions. His pocket sense is about average. He has an above average release. His mechanics are above average. His arm strength is above average. In the end he's an above average QB who can produce at an elite level in a better system.
     
  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I always find it odd that that you will claim that 20-30% is substantial, while ignoring that 70-80% is more substantial.

    3 out of 10 is is way different than 7 out of 10.
     
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  8. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Well, and that hasn't been shot, because according your appraisal, what Tannehill accomplished could be accomplished by roughly a third of the QBs in the league. When the percentage of QBs in the league for whom such performance is deemed possible is as large as a third of them, we've certainly entered the territory of the merely average ones at that point.

    Right, but the key part of what you said is that that makes him no different from 31% to 38% of the QBs in the league. That isn't distinctive.
     
  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You can't ride the coattails throughout the thread of the finding that Tannehill's 2019 was distinctive for him at a certain level of probability (< 0.05) and then change the level of probability to be far greater (< 0.20 to < 0.33) when the findings don't suit your purpose.
     
  10. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I think if the stats show that 70-80% are worse than Tannehill, that's significant.

    I don't use the stats to show anything. YOU use the stats, so we have to try to use the stats that you are using, because you don't watch games, and can't talk about what is actually happening on the field.

    YOU try to use stats to show that what Tannehill did last season isn't significant.

    1/3 of the QBs in the league would be how many? When you find that answer, you'll realize that that would put him in the...top 10.

    Which is what WE have been saying all along. In a DECENT situation, Tannehill is easily a top 10 QB.
     
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  11. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL. For a "stats guy" he sure does come up with some seat of the pants nonsense. Next season, I will not have any discussions with him about Tannehill that do not involve film review.
     
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  12. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I'm certainly open to hearing and reviewing an analysis of film that attempts to distinguish Tannehill from the average QB on the basis of his 11-game stretch in 2019. For that of course you'll have to make a comparison between Tannehill's film and the film of the average QBs noted earlier in the thread who accomplished the same thing (Rypien, Bledsoe, Testaverde, DeBerg, Kramer, etc.).
     
  13. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    No reasonable assessment considers a top 10 QB average. If that’s your argument then it feels like you’re just trying to be argumentative for the sake of arguing. Or trying to justify why your prediction was so wrong.
     
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  14. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    What is it that establishes a top-10 QB as something other than average? The number 10? How do we know it isn't only the top five QBs in the league for example who are significantly different from average?
     
  15. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Way to completely misconstrue his post.....
     
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  16. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    What The Guy fails to realize is that even elite QBs are not elite in every trait. Being elite in one or two and average to above average in everything else puts a QB very far up the list. Add above average mobility to the list. I would also add elite arm talent, which I define as the ability to be accurate from different platforms and different conditions (e.g. running to the left and right, etc).

    I have contended all along that Tannehill was top 10 and that the QBs ranked 6 - 15 are aren't all that different than one another. Differences in passing efficiency between the teams quarterbacked by those QBs is likely due to supporting cast, coaching, scheme fit, and opponent not the capability of the QB.
     
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  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Well unfortunately we can't rely on you here for the "proper" construal, since you've provided nothing other than a critique of my response.
     
  18. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    For a stats guy, he sure is easily confused by numbers.
     
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  19. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Welcome to the discussion. Usually it take posters much longer to figure him out. He used to argue that anyone outside the top 5 was average.....
     
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  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Whether he is top six or something different is exactly what's at issue here. He had 11 games that were of top-six caliber, but 11 games of that nature aren't distinctive enough to determine that reliably.
     
  21. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Well, luckily for 2019, that is a moot point since Tannehill was #1 in every important statistical category.
     
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  22. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I'm still waiting to hear what establishes a QB as significantly different from average and where among the league's QBs that occurs from the resident experts such as yourself.
     
  23. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Which is why people who know what they are talking about look at the film. These are the same people who correctly predicted Tannehill's 2019 success based on his film from 2012-2018. You, OTOH, were utterly and completely wrong. So, there is that.
     
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  24. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL, he had 11 games that were TOP ONE caliber. That is certainly enough to put him in the top 10.
     
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  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    And if that would've happened in a mere one game, it would've been meaningless. What we've found out here recently is that 11 such games are meaningless as well.

    You don't seem to grasp the idea that you're talking about a mere 11 games here. It makes you look awfully desperate to prove something about Tannehill on the basis of a mere 11 games, when it's already been shown that QBs' performance within such a sample size doesn't distinguish average from other-than-average QBs.

    This should've been the first question asked at the end of the season -- does what he just did distinguish him from average QBs. It took us a while to get the relevant question, however, because apparently we were so hung up on the finding that what he did distinguishes him from his own history. Of course the distinction from his own history has as its context how poor his history really was! LOL....
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2020
  26. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Holy Guacamole.

    Are you going to pretend getting out of Miami and away from Adam Gase and one of the worst O lines in football do not matter?

    You want to keep going back to numbers where he was in a bad situation and say that the 10 starts where he was absolutely dynamite mean nothing.

    This is just Bias...

    Stop doing this Guy... How many times have you been outed in this thread for it... Hundreds and Hundreds.
     
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  27. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    When you can definitively determine that Tannehill's situation in Miami was what you say it was, then you can accuse people of bias who don't believe the same thing.
     
  28. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Bottom line, here are the only numbers that really matter.

    2018 Tennessee Titans
    9-7, 3rd AFC South

    2019 Tennessee Titans
    Games 1-6 with Mariotta starting; 2-4
    Games 7 through end of season; 7-3
    2nd AFC South

    Wildcard playoff win in New England vs number 1 rated defense

    Divisional playoff win in Houston vs number 3 rated defense

    Loss in AFC Championship in Kansas City

    On the season, Tennessee was 9-4 with Tannehill as their starter, including 3 road playoff games.

    These ultimately are the only numbers that really matter, wins and losses
     
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  29. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL

    LOL at the "I'm desperate" comment.....

    The Guy four years from now - "How do we KNOW that he isn't the first average QB in the history of the league to lead the league in passer rating five years in a row?"

    LOL
     
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  30. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL
     
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  31. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah and isn't it a shame that you don't have that data and you're sitting here clinging to a mere 11 games.

    Here's a great experiment: go spend some time on the Washington Redskins' message board and make the case that Mark Rypien's similar 11-game stretch made him something other than an average QB overall. Report back and tell us what they say.
     
  32. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Watch the whole video. Try to learn something.
     
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  33. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Did you get over to the Redskins' board yet? I'm sure you can find some old video of Mark Rypien to post to justify the case you make there.
     
  34. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I'm sure their pissed about that SB win...... Rypien was the MVP.....

    Rypien was well on his way to a a very successful career until a knee injury. He went from numerous games per year with passer ratings in the 90's and above 100 to zero more for the rest of his career. Try to learn something before typing nonsense.
     
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  35. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Your willingness to get schooled is remarkable.
     
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  36. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Ah well, then let's have you shift over to the boards of all the teams Steve DeBerg played for.
     
  37. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You have NEVER provided one shred of proof that the situation was anywhere close to average, as you claim it is.

    We have provided numerous examples of how the situation in Miami was not average.
     
  38. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL...... How pathetic...... Jesus, learn something about the game and its history. You literally just picked the first name with no idea what kind of player they were. LOL, what a joke.
     
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  39. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I know what kind of player Rypien was. The point is that there's more to choose from than just him (DeBerg, Testaverde, Kramer, etc.).

    The fact remains that you could visit the message boards of about 15 different teams, make the same case you're making here about an 11-game stretch, and be laughed at hysterically.

    Please, go visit a board or two and report back. I'd love to hear the results.
     
  40. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Once again, average is the default across the league. It's up to you to prove it wasn't average, and with something more than mere fans' opinions.
     

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