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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    You keep debunking your own point that Tannehill’s just an average quarterback and it’s been shown and proven time and time again to be just the complete opposite.

    Tannehill had zero supporting cast in Miami and still put up relatively decent stats despite a supporting cast. He goes to Tennessee where they have a well rounded team and he finally has weapons to flourish...which is no different than...

    Bradshaw with Harris, Stallworth and Swann
    Montana with Craig, Clark and Rice
    Kelly with Thomas and Reed
    Aikmen with Smith, Irvin and Harper
    Manning with James, Harrison and Wayne
    Brady with Burkhead, Edelman and Gronkowski

    I can go on and on and on but every great quarterback has a great supporting cast and without that great supporting cast all you can hope and pray for is your quarterback to be a Dan Marino and that Tinkerbell with sprinkle some pixie dust and your team and you’ll win.
     
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  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    There are alternative explanations for the difference in performance that run counter to yours (highlighted above) and fit just as well with the available data. This is why we need more data -- to adjudicate those differing explanations.

    What we shouldn't be doing is making a definitive conclusion now. There aren't enough data to permit any one conclusion to be definitive. Reaching a definitive conclusion now is more indicative of bias than it is of anything else.

    And there is just as much a possibility that you are experiencing pro-Tannehill bias as there is anyone else is experiencing anti-Tannehill bias.
     
  3. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    There’s plenty of “data”, it’s called knowing the game of football, which I do...and I’m not biased, I’m as objective as they come. You just don’t like hearing what you’re being told
     
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  4. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Ah, so simply revert to "authoritative knowledge" on a message board, where we're all nobodies. Real convincing. Also real humble.
     
  5. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    For those that haven't seen the Film Session with Tannehill on Game Pass, Kurt Warner starts off by introducing "Pro-bowler Ryan Tannehill".

    Warner: I just gotta ask you - "system quarterback... He's a system quarterback.... and I've argued forever that we are all system quarterbacks. You know, it's all about finding the right place for you."

    Tannehill spent much of the video crediting his teammates. Some very interesting "Inside Baseball" analysis. They covered the first pass in the Chargers game, back shoulder throw to Jonnu Smith. Tannehill described how they knew the coverage SD would play on that route and how he had talked to Jonnu during the week that if the LB overplays you, look for the back shoulder throw. It was perfectly placed. Warner pointed out there was an easy check down available on that play. Warner challenged Tannehill about the decision to go with the tougher throw. Tannehill's response was that he felt it was a good matchup for Jonnu and if he put the ball in a good place, they would make a play.

    Tannehill: "At the end of the day there are going to be a lot of situations in the game where there is tight coverage and you can either make a great throw or take the checkdown." Basically (to paraphrase) you have to believe in your teammates and your ability to put the ball in a tight spot.

    This was the theme for Tannehill's season. Trust yourself and your teammates to make plays. Be decisive. Be on time. Be aggressive. This was the difference between the Titans with Tannehill vs Mariota. Mariota was not willing to make those throws.

    This is why Tannehill averaged 9.6 YPA. His accuracy and his teammates making plays was why that was combined with a 117 passer rating. This is also why the offense opened up for Henry. Tannehill was the key.
     
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  6. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Completely consistent with my position throughout the thread. The question remains, however, how sustainable is the system (i.e., surrounding variables) Tannehill requires? We don't yet know.

    If it isn't sustainable, he's no different from Jim Harbaugh.
     
  7. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Another really interesting thing to note. On one play, Tannehill describes the routes and says that the two inside guys are running seem routes and the two outside guys are running stop routes. He notes that they run their stop routes at 14 yards.

    [​IMG]
    In the video you see, AJ Brown and the bottom of the screen is stopping exactly at 14 yards. Corey Davis at the top of the screen is at 9 yards. This is why some WRs can be counted on and some cannot. This is why the 1st round pick may not get a second contract with the team that drafted him.
     
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  8. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Already answered dozens of times. Yes it is sustainable. They have multiple consecutive seasons of proof. They have been running the same system for years. Also, numerous other teams run the same system. So, yes, for the millionth time, yes, it is sustainable. There is nothing weird or unusual about the system that the Titans play.
     
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  9. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Highly, highly recommend that everyone check out that film session. Tannehill shows just how mature he is at QB. He also throws an absolutely beautiful ball. Finally, most of the throws they showed were in tight windows.

    They specifically addressed the limited throws in the playoff games. Warner pointed out that there weren't a bunch of throws, but they were key throws.

    Tannehill pointed out, "we didn't really go into the games thinking, hey, we're going to run it 30, 35 times. The game kind of dictated.... "
     
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2020
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  10. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    It's not at all consistent with what you've said. You've argued that Tannehill was successful BECAUSE of other players. What that quote was showing was that Tannehill was making great throws believing his receivers would do their job...as opposed to in Miami taking the checkdown as he had no faith. He can make throws that average QBs aren't making.
     
  11. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    He also never refers to other QBs as system QBs. If he truly believed that, he’d never bring it up. It’d be like stressing that Tannehill has two feet.....
     
  12. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    No, there is something unusual about the system they ran in 2019 -- it resulted in a passing volume 1.98 standard deviations below the league norm in quarters 1 through 3 in the regular season games Tannehill started, despite having a cumulative scoring margin of -1 during those quarters. That's highly unusual, and questions about 1) how strongly that was related to Tannehill's performance, and 2) whether it can be sustained, are certainly apropos.
     
  13. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    And all of that was occurring within a system in which 1) the load he was asked to carry was very light, and 2) opposing defenses were keying predominantly on another player. We'll see if that degree of difficulty is sustainable.
     
  14. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    No it isn't
     
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  15. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Prove that this is true and how it matters. Not theoretically, with real evidence from the 2019 Titans plays. Show me exactly how.
     
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  16. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You've been shown numerous times why that isn't really a correct way of looking at it.
     
  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah I'm not getting back on your witness stand, dude. We've done this already. If it wasn't convincing to you before, it won't be now either.
     
  18. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, by people who tout that his passing efficiency was driving the bus on the issue, despite that his passing efficiency and passing volume weren't correlated. So, the people doing the "showing" are using a theory controverted by data to "show."
     
  19. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Actually I'll go ahead and use your own video to demonstrate:



    Fast-forward to the 6:25 mark and pay attention to what Earl Thomas does in response to play-action to Derrick Henry, and how that opens the field precisely for the subsequent throw.

    On that play, perhaps one of the best cover safeties of all time in the NFL was being allocated to stop the run game, in a playoff game.

    Again, what we're talking about is "degree of difficulty." Compare the difficulty involved in completing that throw with Thomas in coverage, versus Thomas absent and playing the run.

    It was a great throw, certainly, but lots of great throws get broken up by cover safeties who are actually there. That's what in part makes those throws so difficult. The difficulty Tannehill experienced in completing that throw was significantly less than if Thomas had been back there playing the pass.
     
  20. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Wait...you mean play action did what it was supposed to do? You realize play action being successful has literally nothing to do with how successful the run game is, right? Cbrad has shown that extensively. You also realized that play action is more effective when the QB can sell it right? You also realize that Tannehill excels at PA, right?
     
  21. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL........ Earl Thomas is in COVERAGE not playing the run. He heads toward the flat long before the handoff is faked. At the snap he is already taking off. The back side safety is also moving to the center of the field at the snap. They are shifting into middle field closed coverage. Tannehill correctly reads both Thomas and the back side safety, then throws a 55 yard strike. Notice that Thomas would be the only Ravens defender in the entire area from the left hash to the sideline from behind the LOS to 30 yards down the field. Derek Henry flows right to that area on a pass route.

    Notice, also, that there are only three players running routes, and 6 in coverage. You present this throw to show a lower degree of difficulty??? LOL!!!!!!!! Warner correctly points out the absolute precision on the throw by Tannehill. 2 yards outside the hash, 55 yards down the field. And who's idea was the play? Tannehill. Great call, great recognition of the coverage, great throw. All on the QB.

    Glad to see that you have confirmed my impressions of your ability to understand film. It shows why you don't want to discuss it usually. You see what you want to see.
     
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2020
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  22. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    He fails to understand that Thomas is not playing the run. He has coverage responsibilities in the left flat. He is the only Raven player in that part of the field. He has no idea what he is looking at.
     
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  23. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Thomas mirrors Henry until such time that Tannehill sets up and looks downfield. Thomas had responsibility for Henry in the run game or the short area passing game. When neither of those was going to occur, Thomas flipped and ran downfield.
     
  24. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You realize success in play-action isn't necessarily sustainable, right?

    https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/12/ryan-tannehill-titans-franchise-qb-new-contract
     
  25. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    So now "sustainable" and "predictable" are synonyms? They also say that outside of positive graded throws, which Tannehill made tons of, it isn't a predictor. Since Tannehill is clearly able to their heart passes, it's bodes well for play action.
     
  26. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Thomas never gets closer than 5 yards from the LOS. Kind of a stupid way to play the run. It is a designed coverage. The intent is to confuse the QB into thinking that they are going to be in 4 deep before the snap (therefore taking away the seam route because Thomas would be there). The coverage is rotated at the snap. Tannehill sees it and burns it. A great read and an even better throw. You'll have to look elsewhere for an "easy" throw.
     
  27. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yes, they are. Success in play-action in one season doesn't predict success in play-action in subsequent seasons. That means it isn't necessarily sustainable. "Predict" is a statistical term that has that meaning in this context.
     
  28. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Thomas's responsibility is clearly Henry and not the downfield passing game. Again, one of the best coverage safeties in the history of the game wasn't being used in downfield coverage, where he excels and makes quarterbacks' lives far more difficult.
     
  29. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Do you not understand what zone coverage is? They are playing zone not man. His responsibility is the area of the field. It has nothing to do with Henry. Try again.
     
  30. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Outside of the QB having positive graded passes. You're leaving that out for some reason.
     
  31. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Tannehill himself says that Thomas's motion toward the LOS at the snap was what made him decide to go downfield. Again, the point is that Thomas isn't in downfield coverage. They weren't keeping him back there in defense of Tannehill's longball.
     
  32. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    And???? Thomas' job is to play that coverage. Tannehill's job is to read that coverage, then make a spectacular throw. Mission accomplished.

    This has nothing to do with play action passing. Try again.
     
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2020
  33. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    f
    He also fails to understand that many teams are moving to more play action passing. They are not all having the same degree of success because it is not something that every QB is good at. There are two things that the offense gives up when going to play action passing. First, it usually results in longer routes, and harder throws to hit. 10 - 20 yards down field is common. Not every QB can hit those throws regularly. Second, the QB turns his back to the defense. This leads to more difficulty reading coverages post snap because the QB is not watching the coverage while faking the handoff. He must snap his head around, re-locate the coverage, read it, and make a throw. All in a split second. The QB also has to be precise in his fake. His motion on a fake cannot look different than when he hands off. It is not as easy as it looks and it doesn't automatically lead to gimme throws, like he is suggesting.

    As has been shown MANY, MANY times, despite having a high percentage of PA passing, Tannehill threw difficult throws all year. The data just doesn't support his premise and the one example he gave was just wrong.
     
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  34. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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  35. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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  36. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The point is that a coverage involving Thomas's presence downfield would've presented Tannehill with a far greater degree of difficulty in completing the throw, but such a coverage wasn't called.
     
  37. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    That happens on every pass play in every game. It is a chess match where defenses try to guess what the offense is going to do and vice versa. You've just showed an example of a play in an NFL game. The difference is that not all QBs can make that throw. Tannehill has elite arm talent.
     
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  38. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    That’s just it though. Ill analyze an entire GAME, play by play, series by series when offering an opinion. You just pick up a bucket full of numbers and think you can offer an opinion on what happened without even looking at how those numbers got in the bucket the first place.

    In your bucket of numbers, Henry carried Tannehill. Debunked

    In your buckets, quarterbacks like Brady, Brees, Rodgers et al carry their teams and only run the ball when running out the clock. Debunked.

    You look at numbers, I look at the actual games themselves and WHAT happened play by play, series by series.

    If you would look at the actual games, incorporated with your statistical knowledge and abilities, you could have some respected opinions that would be beyond reproach.
     
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  39. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You’ll have to help me understand how the information that Tannehill’s passing volume was 1.98 standard deviations below the league norm during quarters 1 through 3 of his starts, and that the team had a cumulative scoring margin of -1 during those quarters of his starts, reflects something other than what actually happened during those games. From where is that information derived, if it isn’t from what actually happened during those games?
     
  40. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    What is it for the first half? Were they using Henry more in the second half because they had a lead? Were they using Henry more in the second half because of the scheme the defense was using?

    People keep pointing out, you can't simply point to numbers and draw meaning. There are a myriad of possible reasons why those numbers are what they are.
     

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