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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    But not to a statistically significant degree. @cbrad went over this earlier in the thread:

    In other words if you look at 2018 and 2019 pre-Tannehill, Henry's yards per rush isn't significantly different than it was post-Tannehill in 2019.

    So, Tannehill exploded upward with Henry, whereas Henry did something non-significantly different from what he'd done previously.
     
  2. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    A whole crap ton of things increased when Tannehill took over

    upload_2020-8-15_19-48-48.png
     
  3. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Henry had a far better year than any previous. We're simply repeating everything now.
     
  4. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Not in terms of yards per carry, so the improvement in his performance is simply attributable to having more carries. And again that’s a function of Tannehill’s low passing volume.
     
  5. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    You know, I’m done. Never mind. I’m not going to do hours of work for this aggravation.

    Congratulations The Guy...you’re the first poster I’ll be officially ignoring
     
  6. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Oh come on. Show us how one variable causes another when they aren't correlated. We're dying to see the fruits of your labor.
     
  7. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    It's possible for X to cause Y without the stats X and Y being correlated IF you selectively sample X or Y.
    Simplest example: observe X cause Y just one time. Correlation isn't even defined for a sample size of 1.

    So while the near zero correlation between Tannehill's Y/A and pass dropbacks in post #9022 shows that Tannehill's passing efficiency in 2019 did not cause changes in his passing volume GIVEN the decision by the coach to limit Tannehill's passing volume relative to the rest of the league, it says nothing about causal relationships between Tannehill's passing efficiency and passing volume across the entire range of possibilities.

    For example, if the coach thought that Tannehill would only have high passing efficiency with low passing volume, then his high passing efficiency with low passing volume "caused" the low passing volume relative to the rest of the league.

    Anyway, I also agree that Henry was more the centerpiece of the offense than Tannehill and that Henry enabled Tannehill's passing efficiency, but the case isn't quite "closed" yet in terms of how to interpret the stats.
     
    The Guy likes this.
  8. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I think Henry was the centerpiece of the offense because that is the team that the Titans built. Their intent, before trading for Tannehill, was to build this style offense. You can see it up and down the roster and in their play selection before Tannehill ever stepped on the field. IMO, it isn't possible to show which enabled the other. They worked together.

    It is possible to show that Henry was less efficient with Mariota at QB. That much is clear. Even that is due to multiple factors, including the OL getting better. It is also possible to show that the Titans did not use a run first offense in Tannehill's first few starts. You can also see that Henry's YPC was below 5 for Tannehill's first three starts and he didn't crack 100 yards rushing in any of the games. Meanwhile Tannehill had attempts of 29, 33, and 39 in those three games.

    I'd be willing to bet that leading up the the KC game, they decided that they wanted to keep Mahomes off of the field. That is the first game where they ran more than passed with Tannehill at QB. With the KC game, they had established that they were a threat to both run the ball and throw the ball. They scored 35, 42, 31, and 42 points over the 4 weeks starting with that game. Tannehill had 9 pass TDs, 2 rushing TDs, and just one INT.

    For all the claims that Henry was the focal point of the offense, he only had 2 games during the regular season with Tannehill at QB where he had more than 25 carries. They were 10th in rushing attempts. The Ravens, 49ers, Seahawks, Vikings, Colts, Bills, Eagles, Cowboys, and Patriots all ran the ball more often than the Titans. The Raiders and Texans were close behind.

    It is also possible to show that Tannehill played more efficiently than other QBs under similar circumstances. He out performed Jackson, Cousins, Garapollo, Brissett, Wilson, Josh Allen, Wentz, Prescott, Brady, Carr, and Watson.

    It is also possible to show (with % of tight window throws, and CPOE) that Tannehill still had difficult throws to make and made them with an efficiency that led the league.
     
  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    My guess is that there was an interaction among the variables such that Henry's performance caused both Tannehill's low passing volume and high passing efficiency, and Tannehill's low passing volume in turn amplified his high passing efficiency, but only as a function of Henry's success.

    Again the mechanism of action is 1) an opposing defense that's focused on a running back, 2) a running back who performs extremely well despite that, and 3) a quarterback (and coaching staff) who can consequently pick and choose select and infrequent passing plays that exploit the defense. It's a quarterback's dream scenario.

    The video earlier in the thread in which Earl Thomas took off toward the line of scrimmage at the snap and mirrored Derrick Henry is a perfect example. One of the best cover safeties in history is following Derrick Henry around, thus allowing Tannehill to hit a bomb down the deep middle of the field, where that safety would normally be playing.

    The throw was spectacular, sure, but think about how much more difficult it would've been for let's say Patrick Mahomes to complete (not throw) that pass, when, because 1) the Chiefs pass the ball a great deal more frequently, and 2) the Chiefs have no Derrick Henry equivalent for opposing defenses to focus on, Earl Thomas is very likely back there defending such a pass, rather than farting around with the Chiefs' running back. Mahomes's "degree of difficulty" is far greater than Tannehill's in that example.

    So you have two QBs who are perhaps equally good at throwing that pass, but only one of them is functioning within a scenario in which it's much more likely to be completed. Now extrapolate that to 10 games, and you have Tannehill's 2019 regular season.
     
  10. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    So what you're saying is he made all the magnificent throws he had to, which most QB do not regardless of the situation.

    Also what is your fascination with comparing him to Mahomes? Noone else here is doing that but you. It's not a valid comparison because noone here has attempted to compare those two in any way but you.
     
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  11. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Because he's able to create a hypothetical, and then draw a conclusion from that hypothetical, that didn't exist in reality.
     
  12. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Welcome to the light, my friend....truly proud of you for finally turning away from the dark side! LOL, you may turn out to be a Jedi yet!
     
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  13. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    i’ll leave it to you then to explain why Tannehill’s statistics in 2019 were better than Mahomes’s. Do you figure he’s the better player?

    I’ll stick with the explanation I provided in the post you responded to.
     
  14. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Oh I am indeed a Jedi...sadly one of those when it comes to football, an idealistic Jedi in which you hope facts and figures would prevail.

    However, when you have been twisted by the Dark Side, the one you knew is destroyed...consumed by the dark side
     
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  15. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    https://www.theringer.com/nfl-playo...-henry-running-back-tennessee-titans-playoffs
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2020
  16. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I agree with quite a lot of what you said here. The Titans, pre-Tannehill built themselves to be a running team. Now anyone who knows me knows my philosophy on football...in order to be an effective passing team you have to be an effective running team. The run sets up the pass and Vrabel built this team to set Mariotta Up for success. Mariotta wasn’t able to capitalize on the play action pass opportunities that were present for him.

    Enter Ryan Tannehill...

    Tannehill was expected to carry an anemic team void of talent and as far as passing attempts, passing yards, Tannehill did all he could in Miami. Now he comes to Tennessee that has everything it needs offensively except the quarterback. Tannehill was able to do in Tennessee what Mariotta wasn’t...capitalize on the passing opportunities and capitalize he did. He led or nearly led the league in every significant passing measure and solidified Vrabel’s vision of a complete offense. The Titans one-two punch kept defenses backpedaling all season long. Are they going to run? Are they going to pass? If defenses guess wrong, they got burned and were often burned week after week.

    In this new pass happy league, the Titans demonstrated an effective offensive scheme that any team worth their salt will look at bringing back...a complete offensive unit.
     
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  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    But what you are defining there are not "average" surroundings.

    The contention by some here is that Tannehill was the beneficiary of just "average" surroundings, in contrast to his supposedly extremely poor ones in Miami. The mechanism of action for Tannehill's individual improvement is thought by them to be the improvement in his surroundings from extremely poor to merely average.

    What you've outlined above are extremely good surroundings. "A complete offensive unit." "Has everything it needs except the quarterback." "Capitalize on passing opportunities." "Kept defenses backpedaling all season long."

    Does that sound average?

    The contention on my part is that Tannehill's individual performance was a product of extremely good surroundings -- for him. He needs to be carried by a running back who can perform well despite being keyed on, thus allowing him the meager degree of difficulty associated with 1) a low frequency of passes, and 2) passing the ball against defenses keyed on the running back.

    Here's a question for the folks here: do you believe Ryan Tannehill is better than Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes?

    If you don't, then his performance in comparison to theirs in 2019 must be a product of his extremely good surroundings.

    Now, if his surroundings in 2019 were indeed extremely good, then the question becomes how sustainable they are. The sustainability of something extreme, when it's a product of 11 players and a coaching staff, is certainly questionable.

    Tannehill's future individual performance hinges on how sustainable his surroundings are. If they're sustainable for a mere 11 games, then he's no different from the likes of Jim Harbaugh.
     
  18. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    That's an unfair question.

    1. You are going to base the quality of the QBs not on studying individual decisions and throws, but on results posted.

    2. Both Drew Brees and Mahomes have benefitted from great coaching and great playmakers on offense with them.

    Clearly, Mahomes possesses individual ability for scrambling that Tannehill does not.
     
  19. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The statistics comprising your "results" have been what's used throughout the thread to determine that Tannehill's performance improved in 2019. Now those "results" mean something different? Did Tannehill perhaps not improve in 2019?

    Yet Tannehill's individual performance in 2019 was better than theirs. How do you explain that? By the fact that Brees and Mahomes had great surroundings (by your estimation above), Tannehill's surroundings were merely average, but Tannehill's individual ability is far better than theirs?

    Best of luck making sense of that. Brees and Mahomes have great surroundings according to you, Tannehill performs better than them individually, and Tannehill has only average surroundings. According to that version of reality, Tannehill's individual ability would have to be stratospheric.
     
  20. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I’m so glad The Guy unblocked me so I could block him :sidelol:
     
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  21. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I've been arguing for years that statistics alone don't tell you who is responsible. The REASON people have pointed to the stats is because fire 7 years, people like you faithfully pointed to stats to prove why Tannehill was no good. So of course, once Tannehill had incredible stats, that gets pointed out.

    However, when you start looking at things like the level of difficulty of the throws he was making, the placement of balls, the yards per attempt, it's clear that it wasn't all because of different players around him. You have never admitted or allowed that Tannehill would play different in Miami as a raw rookie, and then as a better QB surrounded by bad talent on offense, than he would on a team that had actual talent.

    I've said it many times, but it seems that you never played organized sports. These are basic things that people who play sports understand. When you don't trust teammates, it most certainly affects your level play.
     
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  22. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    So explain why Tannehill performed better in 2019 than Brees and Mahomes, despite that Brees and Mahomes, according to you, had great surroundings.

    You have two choices: 1) Tannehill had average surroundings in 2019 and his individual ability is far greater than theirs, or 2) Tannehill's surroundings in 2019 were extremely good.
     
  23. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I didn't say they had great surroundings. You are putting words in my mouth. I said they've both benefitted from having great playmakers on offense their teams.

    You clearly don't understand the symbiotic relationship that exists between players on offense.
     
  24. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You have yet to explain how Tannehill performed better than Brees and Mahomes in 2019.
     
  25. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I haven't tried to.
     
  26. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Exactly, that’s the point. Because you have no explanation that fits with your previous statements in the thread.
     
  27. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    No. Nice try. Because I'm not going to go through and analyze every throw made each QB. There is a very real possibility that Tannehill DID actually play better than those QBs. But the only way to know is to analyze what each QB did on each and every throw. I know you'd prefer to use results and team stats to come to your conclusions.

    I will say, though, that based on difficulty of throws, yards per attempt, expected completion, etc, it certainly appears that Tannehill played better than them.

    Again though, your contention was that I said that those QBs had better surroundings. I simply says that Brees and Mahomes had great playmakers around them. Brees always has great offensive pieces around him. Mahomes has a coach that makes every QB look great. This year, Tannehill also had some great playmakers, and he set records and had stats better than every QB in the league.

    QBs with great stats pretty much always have great offensive pieces around them.
     
  28. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    If that’s truly your criterion for determining how well a quarterback has performed, then I would expect you to also conclude that the caliber of Tannehill’s performance in 2019 is an unknown, since you haven’t gone about analyzing his performance in that manner.

    You should no longer say anything in this thread about how well he played in 2019 because you don’t really know that, based on your own criterion.

    For all we know, based on your criterion, he played terribly individually in 2019 and was carried by everyone around him. We would have to break down every play to know either way, and you haven’t done that.

    Would anyone here like to volunteer to convince resnor that Tannehill played well in 2019? Because apparently he still doesn’t know either way.
     
  29. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Actually I gave you several metrics that have nothing to do with other players that says that Tannehill played well.

    You asked me to prove he played better than Brees or Mahomes.

    You never change tactics. Constantly moving goalposts, misrepresenting what people say, and ignoring things you disagree with.
     
  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    No, I asked you to explain how he played better than Brees and Mahomes in 2019.

    You have two choices, his individual ability or his surroundings. What would be your best guess, without looking at all three players' each and every throw?
     
  31. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    My best guess would be individual ability + surroundings.

    They both factor in.
     
  32. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Finally you answered the question, and your answer isn’t consistent with the belief that Tannehill had only average surroundings.
     
  33. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Says you. I think Tannehill had always showed the ability to throw accurate passes and has elite arm talent. You also believe that Miami had average talent around him, I do not. You have proven nothing, and I certainly don't believe that Tennessee was some sort of offensive powerhouse.
     
  34. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I think it depends on what you define as an offensive powerhouse. Were they a 1984 Miami Dolphins that could light up a scoreboard, scoring touchdowns in a matter of seconds? No, that’s not what the Titans were built for. We’re they a run first, power ground game offensive team? Yea I would say they were but the difference between the Titans and other running power teams such as the Vikings with Adrian Peterson was Tennessee hit the ***JACKPOT*** when they landed Tannehill.

    Great running game combined with great quarterback play is the recipe for a successful offensive unit.
    Montana and Craig
    Aikmen and Smith
    Kelly and Thomas
    Elway and Davis

    Too many examples to name but once the league became a quarterback prim Dona pass happy league, focus went off basic football and now the only stat anyone ever looks at anymore is quarterback quarterback quarterback. It’s all the quarterback.

    A football team is like an engine. You can put in the newest state of the art carburetor (quarterback) but if your cylinders or pistons or fuel pump or drive shat or any other part(s) are shot, your engine is shot.

    It’s a crying shame there are some folks here that focus only on the carburetor.
     
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  35. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    So then Tannehill played so much better than Mahomes and Brees in 2019 because he has so much more individual talent than them.

    You have to say either that, or that his surroundings in 2019 were exceptionally good. There isn't any other way of explaining it. It appears you're waffling on this because you're unwilling to say one or the other.

    Saying Tannehill has so much more individual talent than Brees and Mahomes would make you look like an irrational Tannehill advocate, and saying his surroundings were exceptionally good is inconsistent with what you've said previously about how his performance is attributable to a change from poor to merely average surroundings.

    That is the conundrum, however, and you can't escape it by waffling. Waffling only reveals your awareness of being stuck in a position that's inconsistent with your previous one.

    The problem of course is that Tannehill played too well for his performance to be explained by a change from poor to only average surroundings. His very performance makes your position irreconcilable.
     
  36. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Clearly Tannehill + his surroundings (esp: Henry) was a great combination in 2019, but I think people are discounting a 3rd factor that could be key in 2020: opposing defenses will have had a full offseason to adjust.

    There's a world of a difference having to adjust game to game vs. having a full offseason to adjust. You can actually see that with the time taken to adjust to rule changes, especially the one in 1978. The resulting change in passing stats didn't fully materialize until after 2 seasons. Of course that rule change was huge.

    Either way, being able to perform at a high level over multiple seasons is a very different kind of accomplishment because it shows others can't easily adjust. 2020 season is almost upon us!!

    (just imagine this thread if the 2020 season were canceled and we had to wait till 2021 lol)
     
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  37. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Right, and it took someone with the intelligence of Belichick to develop the winning formula against the Titans on a within-season basis in 2019. He allowed Henry to run rampant while defending the passing game, rather than vice-versa. The result was that Henry ran for 180+ yards on 34 carries, while Tannehill's passer rating was 61, and the Titans' scoring went from an average of 30.4 during Tannehill's starts to 20. All of that stands to reason given that EPA per passing play is so much greater than EPA per running play, league-wide. Belichick is apparently aware of such statistics, whereas the average head coach in the league may not be.

    But for Tom Brady's horrendous day against them (passer rating of 59), we'd be talking about how Tannehill's regular season magic quickly fizzled out in the playoffs, once a team finally started focusing on him instead of Henry. If teams follow Belichick's blueprint in 2020, questions abound about how Tannehill will perform.
     
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2020
  38. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I agree with everything you said, but I think most here are overlooking the bigger point- Tannehill will either play well next year or he won't.

    If he leads the league in passer rating next season, that may or may not correlate to what he did in 2019. If he plays horrible next season, that may or may not correlate to what he did in 2019. The problem here is that you can't "PROVE" anything based on one season or ten seasons if you already have a locked-in opinion one way or the other.

    For the record, I've never heard anyone say that the QB who led the league in passer rating "sucked" until 2019. What more could RT do to prove himself other than outplaying every other QB in the league? If The Guy still has that opinion then the problem isn't the data or the tape or anything else in the equation except his flawed understanding of football.

    Likewise, I could make the same argument AGAINST my buddy Resnor. Just because he believed in Tannehill longer than most of us, that doesn't mean his opinion was valid when our team was going 6-10 or 8-8. RT does have elite arm talent but he also led the league in sacks for a number of seasons by a wide margin. He could have easily washed out of the league or never got a start with his new team, which means most would still have an opinion based on the 2018 Tannehill that got pummeled in the pocket due to how he reacted to pressure down the stretch. I believe that's because the leg/ankle wasn't 100% at that time but still- he played some really bad football at times to close out that season.

    Here's the bigger question though- why does any of this matter? Tannehill will either play well next year or he won't. Regardless, that won't change what he did in 2018 or 2019, which are complete "polar opposite" seasons. This entire conversation really comes down to your love/hate for Tannehill in general...there's absolutely nothing to actually "prove" by trying to twist stats and conversations to show one thing or another.

    As I said earlier, #1 in passer rating and dozens of other passing metrics 100% stands on their own- there's no additional dialogue required to say what kind of year he had. I mean, even if his success was 99% because of Henry and other players...it was only 1% him...then I'd take that every season for the next decade. Any team or GM would because that's why they play the game. And while RT clearly had a large part in achieving those levels of success, it's ultimately a team sport and the offense is SUPPOSED TO try to make their QB look good, just like the QB is supposed to make others look good.

    So I just don't understand what we're trying to "PROVE" here- #1 in passer rating is better than #2-50. That's the only "FACT" that matters for 2019 and it means nothing in terms of what we'll see for 2020.
     
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  39. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Can't speak for others, but my interest is in predicting how he'll end up statistically after a long career. Over a long career the stats are really good indicators of a QB's ability, and 2019 threw a wrench in the trajectory Tannehill was going in Miami, making it a more interesting intellectual exercise to ask how he'll end up. That's it for me.
     
  40. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Tannehill may very well be a better thrower of the ball than Mahomes. Mahomes is sick with his escapability like Wilson. But Tannehill was surgical with his passing last season.
     
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