Just saw an article in Sports Illustrated that had the Vegas over/under on Tua's rookie season at 3,300 yards and 20+ TD's...which seems insane to me knowing that he's not going to be a day-1 starter. Or is he? The SI analyst expects Tua to make 6 starts and throw for around 1,500 yards and 8 to 10 TD's with less than 5 interceptions...he guesses that Tua may start after their week 11 bye and finish out the season. He also comments that it would make complete sense to sit Tua as long as possible though...maybe the entire year since we have Rosen and Fitzpatrick. Not much of an article overall, but it's something in this otherwise dead news cycle. It does give predictions for all the top NFL rookie QB's though, so if you're into that then it's worth the read.
I would bet under personally. I think the division is weak enough that should the season unfold we wont be entirely eliminated from playoff contention until late. For that reason I dont see Tua stepping in until week 14 at the earliest. It's hard to predict how this year will go with the routine shaken up, we might not get well and struggle out of the gates. That said I really do see us hovering around .500 most of the year.
I would absolutely bet the under as well, but with my luck Fitz would get hurt week 1 and Tua would start the entire year. That's why I simply don't bet....even when it seems to be a "sure thing." I think the season comes down to three things- 1) Offensive line production 2) Secondary production 3) Simplicity of new offense If all three things come out as positives early on, then this could be a playoff team. If the line is below average and the secondary is only okay, then maybe we're another 5 to 7 win team. It's really hard to predict when so much is brand new and untested...but that's also an advantage in early match-ups if the team plays it right. I absolutely expect a week 1 win in NE though, that I would actually bet on! =)
Ok I'm going to Vegas on Monday. I hate betting the under because that means were going to suck if that's true. I will get the NE game in your honor.
Well, we could see Fitzpatrick ball out and keep Tua on the bench, or we could see Rosen get some snaps to try and boost his trade value in a year or two. So there's a couple of routes that don't require "Tua > 3,300 yards & 20 TD's".
I honestly expect us to hover around .500 for most of the season. I can only see Tua getting in toward the end of the season and then, only after we're eliminated from the playoffs. The only way I can see Tua play before week 14 is if Fitz gets hurt and I really really don't want to see that. With that being said, Flo is going to play the guy who gives us the best chance to win and if Tua beats Fitz for the job, he's going to be on the field.
Welcome to the site! Grats on getting your 1st post out of the way. I read earlier today that when Tua reported for his first ever presser with the media (it was via Zoom...not in person), Tua was wearing a Fitzpatrick jersey. From everything that's leaking in the media, the QB room is all focused on helping each other grow and Tua/Fitz hit it off right from the start. So whenever Tua does take the reins, it sounds like it will be a smooth transition regardless. I am starting to think that we'll see Tua earlier in the season...but I'm really not basing that on anything but intuition. I wouldn't be surprised for them to bring in Tua/Rosen for a series here and there just to see if they can build any momentum. Remember, there's no pre-season so teams don't get these types of early looks like normal...I'm thinking that maybe changes the process a little for teams in 2020.
Thanks. Your sig is the key to everything, including when we see Tua. Build both sides of the line and we'll have a perennial playoff team in a couple of years. If the O-line doesn't hold up for Fitz, Flo won't put Tua in the same situation that Rosen faced in Arizona. We don't need him jumping at perceived footsteps in five years after a bad experience this season.
Good point about injuries. I wasnt taking that into consideration because it's hard to say a guy will or wont get hurt at a certain time. It is a factor though.
If the NFL was having a complete preseason, I might be inclined to agree with your assessment but with coronavirus putting a damper on the league this season, I would say all bets are off on any team. Without that live scrimmage against other teams to see who can and who can’t, it’s going to be difficult on any team to develop their final 53 man roster. For all I know we could end up the season 3-13 or 13-3. This is going to be a strange season for the first 4 or 5 games I think.
Jeez. I wish I could get in on that action. I'd bet the under for sure. SI has much more realistic expectations.
Agreed on all counts, except I dont think it will just be 4-5 weeks, I think most if not all the season is going to look different.