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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That begs the question of why he wasn't similarly surgical in previous seasons, however. If we're using the CPOE statistics to measure how surgical he was, there's no reason he shouldn't have been just as surgical with the Dolphins. It would've simply been measured as a lower expected completion percentage (owing to poorer surroundings), accompanied by a similarly large completion percentage over expectation. In other words, he should've overcome his poorer surroundings with his own arm talent by a similarly large margin. That isn't what happened however.

    So the question then becomes, what was going on in 2019 that accounted for the difference in his performance. Again, we do know that his passing frequency was substantially lower, and he had a running back who performed very well despite being keyed on by opposing defenses. And we know those variables (rushing efficiency, passing frequency, passer rating) were strongly correlated with each other game-by-game in 2019. So that seems like the best possible explanation for his performance in 2019 at present, while we await future data.
     
  2. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You really don't understand how playing with confidence works, do you? You don't understand the things that can erode a players confidences.

    There are many many explanations that could be correct. You want to boil things down to statistics, and act like these explain things. Sports are played by humans, not numbers.
     
  3. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Who wouldn’t play with confidence if his role consisted of a select few passing plays against defenses keying on another player. Nothing I said above is inconsistent with playing with confidence.
     
  4. Patster1969

    Patster1969 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He did the same against the Bills when he was the DC of the Giants to take the K-Gun offense out of the game - the Bills didn't react quickly enough to it, whereas the Titans did, as unlike the Bills, they still won.
    Do we know if the Titans didn't do something similar to Brady, resulting in his terrible passing stats - the Patriots just didn't have the running game to beat the Titans?
     
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  5. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    When you get limited throws, and they're the most difficult throws, no, that isn't how you build confidence in the QB.

    I'm talking about playing in Miami. When you don't have confidence in your receivers or your coaches or your oline, it's going to affect how you play. When you don't trust your defense to hold a lead or stop the other team, it's hard to have confidence.
     
  6. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    All of that is certainly plausible, but we don’t know with any certainty whether he felt that way, and if he did feel that way, we don’t know with any certainty whether it was justified.

    You seem to be operating on the basis that your view of the 2012-2018 Dolphins has been confirmed as fact, whereas there has been no confirmation of that beyond agreement by some on a message board.
     
  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I'm giving my opinion. Just as you are yours.
     
  8. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    The end of the 2018 season was the only point in Tannehill's career where I felt HE was playing terrible. Nearly every Tannehill supporter agreed. I didn't see any excuses being made. He just played bad. I seriously thought that he could have finally been ruined.

    That makes 2019 all the more remarkable. He just shrugged it off.
     
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  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    And your opinion is plausible. This is why we need more data, however -- because two differing opinions are equally plausible. It's just as plausible that Tannehill requires the "comfort" (as opposed to the "confidence") of having another player drive the bus, while he sits back in a lesser role (in terms of frequency) and picks apart defenses focused on that player.

    And if that's true, then it's not so much that his surroundings improved from poor to merely average, but that his surroundings improved to feature such a player and thus enable him to assume a role that for him is far more comfortable.
     
  10. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I completely agree, and I think the reason he was able to do that is because he came into a new camp with no immediate pressure or expectations as a backup. Looking back, he outplayed Mariota in preseason and probably should have had the nod from day 1...but maybe it's good that he didn't get it.
     
  11. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I don't really understand why you always go to a choice between two extremes.

    In Miami, Tannehill had 3 HCs and multiple OCs over his career. Instability does not create confidence, especially with a young, raw, developing player. Tannehill did not have a true number one receiver to throw to, Parker was pretty poor while Tannehill was there. Tannehill did not have even close to a consistent run game. So why is it that you then assume that for Tannehill to be successful, he needs greatness around him?

    Honestly, that is really where I fundamentally disagree with you. But to each his own.
     
  12. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I think I've mentioned that my brother is a huge Patriots fan and we've had a lot of conversations regarding Brady's success. He thinks the main reason is receivers like Welker and Amendola who can consistently get open on short and intermediate routes with great footwork and high football IQ's. Likewise, NE is one of the more run-heavy offenses with a balanced attack...great line, great run/pass blocking and fast releases have been their key. Each piece was hand-picked to compliment Brady.

    If we're going to say that Tannehill only had success last year because of this surroundings, then we also have to say that Tom Brady is a fraud. Every single one of the counter-RT arguments here essentially violate football 101...you build a team to compliment your best players.
     
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  13. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Oh absolutely. I'm in NH, so I've watched more Patriots games than any human should watch, and I totally agree.

    Look at what Brady did when he had Moss, arguably the GOAT receiver. He went crazy.
     
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  14. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Because he is not arguing in good faith. It is as simple as that.
     
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  15. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah well, like I've said numerous times here, Brady's "going crazy" reflected upward variation from a normal level of play well above Tannehill's normal level.

    QBs vary in their performance from year to year. It's the level at which that variation occurs that distinguishes them from each other, in terms of ability. The level at which Tom Brady has varied from year to year is far higher than the level at which Ryan Tannehill has varied from year to year.

    So when you pair Tom Brady with Randy Moss, with all else equal, Brady plays at a level well above what you'd get from Tannehill with Randy Moss. Likewise, if you subtract Randy Moss from both of them, with all else equal, Brady nonetheless performs at a level well above Tannehill.

    This is why the "Jim Harbaugh" finding is so critical here. At the present time Tannehill can't even be distinguished from Harbaugh, because Tannehill's upward variation during his 11 games in 2019 isn't significantly different from Harbaugh's upward variation over his 11 games in 1995. Tannehill hasn't demonstrated enough sustained upward variation to be distinguished from an average QB in the league. Tom Brady sure has, however.
     
  16. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You're again ignoring the talent he's been throwing to other than Moss. Edelman, Welker, and freaking Gronk. Brady's stats without Gronk are pretty damn low. The Patriots offense was incredibly complex, and they were wildly successful with guys who ran incredibly precise routes. You ignore all this stuff and bring up Harbaugh.

    It's ridiculous.
     
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  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah we disagree about how good Brady is. My only point above is that upward variation in performance in just one year isn’t in itself an indication that somebody is being carried by his surroundings in terms of his ability. You have to look at the level at which he varies from year to year.
     
  18. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You're comparing two QBs, but not looking at the vastly different level of talent on the field with them. This isn't about how good Brady is or isn't. You're talking about Brady's play always being high, but again, you're looking at results. You're not looking at what his receivers were doing, you're not looking at the throws he was making. Brady for most of his career had receivers who ran crisp precise routes, along with having a HoF tight end. He had incredibly stable coaching, and offensive system continuity. Tannehill had none of that in Miami. He finally goes to a team that had that, and he goes off. Then you want to look at his results in Miami as his norm, to discredit his play in Tennessee.
     
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  19. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The issue is that there are competing explanations for that, none of which can be confirmed or refuted at present. Again you have the "Jim Harbaugh et al." problem. Those QBs had 11 consecutive games no different from Tannehill's in 2019. You can't establish that Tannehill has become anything different from his previous norm when too many other average QBs did the same thing he did in 2019.

    What if whatever is responsible for Tannehill's play in Tennessee is capable of being sustained for only those 11 games, and he subsequently reverts to his normal level of performance with the Dolphins? What would be your conclusion about his surroundings in Miami versus Tennessee at that point? And again this is a relevant question because too many other average QBs followed the same pattern of performance -- 11 straight games in the stratosphere and then crashing back down to earth.
     
  20. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    If only we had a recent game that really mattered to directly compare RT vs Brady.....
     
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  21. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    He had never been able to explain the 30 point swing in passer rating for Brady from 2006 to 2007 or the drop by 30 points between 2007 and 2013. When I raised it, he was surprised and suggested that passer rating shouldn't be used to measure QB play.....

    He just cannot wrap his head around the fact that supporting cast matters. It is the only (other than injury) rational explanation for the variation passer rating that is COMMON with all QBs. This was all spelled out pages and pages ago. He simply ignores all facts that run counter to his silly theory.
     
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  22. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    As I've said many times, variation in QBs' performance from year to year is accounted for by their surroundings, while the level at which they vary is accounted for by their individual ability.

    How do you figure we can conclude that based on their career statistics, Peyton Manning was a better QB than Chad Pennington?

    In 2002, Peyton Manning's passer rating was a mere 88.8, whereas Chad Pennington's was 104.2. Wasn't Pennington therefore the better QB overall?

    Of course not, because the level at which Manning varied from year to year over his career (including 2002) was far higher than the level at which Pennington varied from year to year. Had Pennington stayed up around 104.2 for a far greater portion of his career, we'd be talking about him in the same breath as Manning. Of course he didn't, however.

    And that's the question for Tannehill at present -- how long is he going to sustain this level of performance. The answer to that question places him anywhere between Jim Harbaugh and Drew Brees, and we don't know the answer yet. 2019 alone can't answer the question.
     
  23. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    But your theory does not factor in that some QBs play an entire career in an environment with great players around them, and some players don't. Look at the receivers, tight ends, and running backs that Manning had all the time. Pennington didn't have the same caliber of receivers year in and year out that Manning had.

    Pennington also had a 127 rating in 2000.
     
  24. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    So your position is that Chad Pennington and Peyton Manning had the same level of individual ability and the difference in their career performances was a function of only their surroundings?

    On five passing attempts.
     
  25. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    My position is that you are, even now, conflating ability with the results that QBs have. Since every QB plays with different variables, looking at results is ineffective in telling you who had more individual ability. Who's to say that Pennington playing on that Colts teams with HoF receivers and HoF right end wouldn't have had results similar to Manning, year in and year out? The only way to truly know who was more talented is to examine their throws and their decisions. I mean, sure, Manning had superior arm strength, but that doesn't mean he was better. Players around the QB matter, and coaches matter.
     
  26. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    When better QBs get better surroundings, they play better than worse QBs do when worse QBs get better surroundings.

    When Tom Brady got Randy Moss et al., he skyrocketed to the moon. That wouldn't have happened for Cleo Lemon.

    We don't look back at Cleo Lemon's career and say, "man, if he'd have only had what Brady had around him, he would've been a Hall-of-Famer."
     
  27. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    All I'm saying is that you point to guys like Brady or Manning, who had very talented receiving units, and love to talk about how they always played at a high level, as if those consistently great receiving corps don't play a big role in that. Then you compare, say Tannehill, as a raw young QB, throwing to Hartline/Bess/Legedu/etc, and complain that his "normal" was not as good as Brady's, and then explain away his great play as a vet once he had some competent players around him.

    I just find it to be an incredibly disingenuous argument.
     
  28. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    It would be no more disingenuous than examining Jim Harbaugh's 11 games in 1995 just after he completed them, exploring situational advantages he may have been experiencing, and noting that the duration of his elevated performance doesn't yet distinguish him from average QBs.

    The problem you're having here, again, is that you're launching off from the position that your belief about the inadequacy of Tannehill's surroundings with the Dolphins is a fact, rather than your own opinion. Then when someone doesn't come to the same conclusion you do about "his great play as a vet once he had some competent players around him," you view their position as disingenuous.

    Once again, I'll ask you this: if Tannehill reverts to his Dolphins level of play in 2020, what will be your conclusion about his surroundings on the Dolphins versus his surroundings with Tennessee?
     
  29. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Hypotheticals are pointless.

    Again, if you had ever shown that Miami was not below average in the areas we've discussed ad nauseum, the main crux of your argument all along, then we wouldn't still be bringing it up.

    But you've never shown that Miami wasn't below average in:

    1. Coaching
    2. Receivers
    3. Commitment to run game
    4. Oline

    The things we saw indicated that we were below average in all those. We've given numerous examples to support that premise.
     
  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    So then according to you, Tannehill should continue his level of play somewhere in the neighborhood of his 2019 level, given that his surroundings in 2020 appear to be no different from his surroundings in 2019.

    If his performance reverts to his Dolphins level, however, and his surroundings remain the same, how will you explain that?
     
  31. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    No, I don't expect that he will remain at that high of a level. He played at an incredibly high level last season. But I certainly don't expect him to fall to the levels he was at in Miami, barring any significant changes. I think it's unreasonable to expect any QB to maintain those levels.
     
  32. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I took a wild guess that Tannehill could drop to a passer rating of 105 this season. The Guy responded that this would be a huge drop and would indicate some huge "issue" with Tannehill. Then I shared the data that showed it would just be an average falloff from a huge statistical season and that only one QB had ever had two consecutive seasons with a passer rating of 115 or higher, Drew Brees in 2018 and 2019. The typical scenario following a stellar season is a big drop. Brees had 109.6 in 2009. In 2010, it was 90.9. He had a rating of 110.6 in 2011 and 96.3 in 2012.
     
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  33. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You’re either ignoring or missing the point that if Tannehill reverts to the level at which he played for the Dolphins, it becomes incredibly difficult to say that his surroundings with Tennessee are any different from his surroundings with the Dolphins, and then there goes your theory. Tannehill has to keep playing significantly better than he did for Miami for your theory to have any merit.
     
  34. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Even though I have The Guy blocked, you gotta give him credit...

    He’s definitely helping this thread reach 10,000 posts lol
     
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  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I'm not ignoring anything. You want to draw conclusions from a hypothetical situation, and I don't see the point.
     
  36. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The point is that the data necessary to support your premise haven't yet been generated, and if the data point a certain direction, your premise is faulty. Therefore your premise is exactly as hypothetical as the hypothetical I'm illustrating. You're still working with a hypothesis (i.e., a hypothetical) as well.
     
  37. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    That's patently false. One needs only look at the constant coaching carousel, or the number of players who washed out of the league after leaving Miami.
     
  38. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Even if that had been demonstrated to be significantly worse than the league norm (and it hasn't), Tannehill's 11 games in 2019 still haven't distinguished him sufficiently from the average QB to conclude that the surroundings in Tennessee are different from the ones in Miami. Too many average QBs have had 11-game stretches of that nature to permit that conclusion.

    Again, if Tannehill's performance reverts to his Miami level in 2020 even though the surroundings remain the same, what will you conclude about the surroundings in Miami versus the ones in Tennessee? You don't have to answer that question -- the fact that the question merely exists and has a clear answer illustrates the point irrefutably.
     
  39. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Again, how many teams go through 3 HCs in 5 years, and multiple OCs? How many QBs are learning a new offense every other year?

    Simple. Almost none.

    Again, I'm not answering your hypothetical, as it doesn't matter. You simply want to try to steer the argument into an area where you don't need to prove anything, and can argue whatever you want. Hypotheticals are pointless. We can talk about that situation if it actually happens.
     
  40. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Are we supposed to take your word for that?

    I can tell you how many standard deviations Ryan Tannehill was below the league average in passing frequency in quarters 1 through 3 in 2019, in hundredths. Your analysis of his environment between 2012 and 2018, in comparison to the league norm, stops at the above assertion, with no supporting evidence whatsoever.

    Put in the work. Make the thing more convincing than "some guys on a message board think so."
     

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