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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Interesting move, the Titans are acquiring Jadeveon Clowney. Building that defense. That's good news for Tannehill.
     
  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That's precisely what I thought they needed to do at the end of last season -- improve the pass defense. The game against the Chiefs in the playoffs was a lesson in how they needed to compete against the best QBs in the league, the ones they're likely to face deep in the playoffs. They can't expect Henry to rush for 150+ yards and 5+ yards per carry every game, and they can't expect Tannehill to carry the offense and outduel the likes of Mahomes if and when Henry is held to a more pedestrian game. They have to be able to limit the performance of Mahomes et al. and thereby be more competitive against those teams.

    Still a tall order even with Clowney, however, as we saw what Mahomes did to one of the best defenses in the league in the Super Bowl, against a team (the 49ers) whose offensive formula was similar (prioritize the run and limit the QB's workload).
     
  3. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    That’ll actually help the Titans offense get more opportunities with the ball. A great defense is always getting the ball back into the offense’s hand.

    Hell, might even put to rest a certain poster’s “volume” argument lmao
     
    FinFaninBuffalo likes this.
  4. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Why would he have gotten a bigger contract? He's hitting his peak age wise.. do you want me to list 10 all Pro QBs that got massive contracts when they were older than Ryan?
     
  5. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Nope, not going to work. The Titans had 176 offensive drives in 2019, slightly above the league average of 173. Obviously that comes nowhere near explaining Tannehill's extremely low passing volume, well below the league average. Offensive "opportunities" is not a causal explanation for Tannehill's low passing volume.

    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/overall-drive-statsoff/2019
     
  6. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I mean, Tannehill got $91 million guaranteed, that's a pretty good contact for a 32 year old with some injury history.

    But if he was 27 pulling off a season like he had, I think he'd have gotten a bigger contract, being younger.
     
  7. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Nice try. Per your own link, of the 8 playoff teams last season 4 teams had more offensive plays than the Titans. The remaining teams were the Titans and the remaining...oh, to include to Super Bowl champions Kansas City

    I do give credit to your anti-Tannehill stance. You won’t give up. I respect your staunch stance...even when you’re wrong
     
  8. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Oi, Egghead was played by Vincent Price. By definition that makes him a top tier villain.
     
    resnor likes this.
  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Apparently you don't understand that something 1.98 standard deviations below the league average (Tannehill's passing volume) can't be explained by something slightly above the league average (the Titans' number of offensive drives), especially when the relationship would be expected to be direct and not inverse.

    If the Titans' number of offensive drives were to explain Tannehill's extremely low passing volume, their number of offensive drives would have to be likewise extremely low in comparison to the league norm, and it was nowhere near that. Tannehill had no fewer "opportunities" (offensive drives) than the average team, yet his passing volume was well below that of the average team. How can his number of "opportunities" have possibly been a cause of his passing volume in that scenario?

    The way you're portraying this is analogous to saying someone's untimely death (i.e., something extreme for which there must've been an extreme cause) was caused by his 98.7-degree body temperature (i.e., something virtually normal and nowhere near extreme). Obviously that makes no sense.

    If I'm wrong I'll say so. In this instance however I'm certainly not.
     
    Last edited: Sep 7, 2020
  10. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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  11. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Regarding Clowney, it appears he was merely an emergency replacement for Vic Beasley, which will dilute his impact some:
    https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/08/30/titans-training-camp-nfl-fmia-peter-king/
     
  12. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    If you read it, he says he's concerned about NE being able to rebound from losing four starting-caliber linebackers. So it's not about Brady, it's about that defense.
     
  13. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    At least one of Peter King's explanations for Tannehill's success in 2019:
    Which again bears on the question of the replicability of Tannehill's performance. If the above is true, Arthur Smith will be a head coach soon, and what would that do to Tannehill?

    https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/08/30/titans-training-camp-nfl-fmia-peter-king/
     
  14. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    It wouldnt necessarily mean anything.

    I can envision a situation where a QB has more immediate impact while a coach rebuilds a team he left.


    A bit off topic

    The wheels were falling off in NE whether he stayed or not IMO and they werent a team to fear anymore.
     
    resnor likes this.
  15. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Why leave out where he says that Tannehill is the QB of the future for Tennessee? Lol. You pull out part of the article, and try to spin it as if King doesn't think Tannehill is the real deal. Nothing in that article indicates that is his belief.
     
  16. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The Patriots failed to make the playoffs (what King is predicting for 2020) only one time (2002) in Brady's 18 years as a full-time starter, despite variation in their defensive performance across those years. Obviously we'll have to see how Cam Newton performs to make an accurate judgment about what happens with them in 2020, but if the Patriots don't make the playoffs, odds are it'll be because of a drop-off at QB, regardless of what King is predicting the cause to be.
     
  17. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Ohhhhh...so you take the predictions of his that you like, but you disregard the ones you don't?

    He's pretty clear why he thinks NE will struggle.
     
  18. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I didn't say anything about King's thoughts about Tannehill. The point was that he nominated an exceptionally good aspect of Tannehill's 2019 surroundings as causal in the team's performance, thus begging the question of what would happen if that aspect was removed.
     
  19. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    It doesn't matter what King thinks. The point is that if New England doesn't make the playoffs and Tampa Bay wins the Super Bowl, the most likely primary explanation for that will be Tom Brady.
     
  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The Patriots were 12-4 last year, the same regular season record as the Super Bowl champion. When exactly were the wheels falling off.
     
  21. muskrat21

    muskrat21 Well-Known Member

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    can we delete this thread? who ****ing cares RT is not a dolphin just delete this thread so all the RT lovers go to the Tennessee reddit or forums or w/e. so sad we have a thread about a player that hasn't been on the team for 2 years as our top thread.
     
    Puka-head likes this.
  22. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Ok, reading through these posts, I can’t help but shake my head in the utter lack of knowledge.

    First off, Tampa Bay winning three Super Bowl? Let alone even going to the Super Bowl is a JOKE!! Tampa Bay has gone all in on a 43 year old quarterback who spent his entire career under one head coach and played in one of the weakest divisions in the NFL. New England was guaranteed at least 5 wins playing in the AFC East. That left 10 other games for the Pats/Brady to pick up at least 5 more wins to secure a playoff spot. That’s not happening in Brady’s new home.

    Brady and the Yuckaneers will face off against the Saints, the Falcons and the Panthers twice a year. That in itself will be no easy task.

    Tampa Bay will NOT make the playoffs. Every one is going to be zeroing in on Brady to Gronkowski, Tampa’s only true offensive talent. Additionally Brady is not going to be able to evade the blitzes that are going to pour through Tampa’s porous offensive line.

    Tampa Bay will be lucky to finish the season 9-7 and pray for a miracle to squeeze into the playoffs...which will not happen.

    New Orleans and Atlanta will make the playoffs before Tampa does.

    Mark my words...

    On the other hand, anyone counting out Belichick and the Patriots are fools. Everyone has sang the song of Brady for years but that teams success has been due to Belichick and his defenses. Now the Patriots may indeed be in trouble with the loss of key defensive personnel but unless everyone suddenly seems to this the Dolphins, Bill and Jets are primed to take over the AFC East and all 3 lay waste to the Patriots, you’re living in a fantasy world.

    The top 2 teams in the AFC East are going to be New England and Buffalo. Who edges out who for the top spot I can’t say at the moment but if you’re counting the Patriots out, then you really don’t know football
     
  23. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Last year Tampa Bay had two Pro Bowl receivers in their primes (Evans and Godwin) and two emerging tight ends (Howard and Brate), and they've added Brady, Gronkowski, and Leonard Fournette. If Brady hasn't hit his "QB career wall" they'll be very difficult to defend.
     
  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Brady's already hit his career wall. Last year was the first year he was below average, even if by only a tad (z-score = -0.2292). That never happened before. And the year before he was only at +0.4. With Tampa's offensive talent, Brady may still put up decent numbers but I doubt it will be anywhere close to his career average of z-score ~ 1, which is the average for a SB winning QB (in the year they win it). No.. Brady's done for IMO.

    Also, let's not forget that Tampa had the 3rd best offense (tied with the Saints) last year by points scored. No way Brady improves on this. More interesting for me is what Belichick gets out of Newton. Cam is not an accurate QB and doesn't fit personality-wise with Belichick. I don't see this working out well.

    I'm hoping this is the first year NE ends up with less than 10 wins since 2003. Belichick and Brady are both trying to show they were more important for the NE dynasty. I predict they'll end up showing that both were crucial.
     
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  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I can certainly see that being the case. I had questions about him in that regard last year.

    I agree and I think the linchpin in their dynasty has been not only their immense individual talent (Belichick and Brady), but also the link between them in terms of Brady's establishment and maintenance of a team culture consistent with Belichick's philosophy. Brady was essentially an extension of Belichick in the locker room in other words, and players acquired by New England over the years simply assimilated into that team culture (even the likes of Randy Moss). I don't see that happening anywhere near as much with Cam Newton, especially in year one.
     
  26. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    If what he thinks doesn't matter, why are you posting his opinions then?
     
  27. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    It’s interesting that he’s predicting Tampa Bay to win the Super Bowl at the same time New England doesn’t even make the playoffs. I thought that juxtaposition of outcomes was very interesting, even though I disagree with his proposed mechanism of action for it. Certainly if that happens the linchpin in the equation will be Tom Brady in my opinion, not the Patriots’ defense.
     
  28. xphinfanx

    xphinfanx Stay strong my friends.

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    My money is on Tampa having a better record than the Patriots.
     
  29. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Toss up for me. Looking at each team’s schedule, I see 8-8 for both teams...but that’s all preseason prediction without the benefit of seeing any team playing preseason games and the ability to effectively evaluating what team team has
     
  30. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Belichek was actually bragging about how great camp has been with Cam this season....which is totally out of character for him to pay compliments. He said that he really loves Cam's character and leadership, that he's making smart decisions, bla bla bla. It took me by surprise since he never said any of that about Brady.

    I'm kind of excited to see what NE does this year since I've been a Cam/Panthers fan for the past 20 years. Part of me thinks it won't work at all but then again, I know how dangerous Cam is if he's healthy and motivated. Cam Newton and Ernie Adams could be a freakin' scary combination...
     
  31. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Here’s another one he posted in another thread

    So when sportswriters post something you like, you’re all over it but when these same people tell you how GREAT Tannehill has played, you disagree and look for flaws.

    Someone needs to play George Washington so he can stop cherry picking
     
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  32. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Listen dude, unless you want to argue that Tannehill is better than Patrick Mahomes, you'll have to acknowledge that he was the beneficiary of situational advantages in 2019, the likes of which I've illustrated here. There's no other way around it. Case closed. Move on to another topic.
     
  33. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Last season, Tannehill was the better quarterback. Bottom line
     
  34. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    LMFAO!!!!
     
  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Situational doesn't mean he had better players, though. I mean, look at NE... Their wide receivers were phenomenal in their system, but who is actually going to argue that Welker or Amendola, or whoever, were better receivers than a Julio Jones, or a Hopkins, or other receiver who is bigger, faster, and can jump higher? But they were great in that system, a system built to maximize the benefits of receivers who could run consistent crisp routes, and hold on to the ball.

    Again, did you play any organized sports growing up?
     
  36. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    You dont have to accept that at all. You could for instance look at the defenses they played against and how those teams were playing when they met.

    Is your argument that the Titans have a better roster than the Chiefs? Since its the implication of what you're pushing I'd assume so.

    I think you're making a claim that isnt well thought out.

    Just because Tannehill had a better individual year statistically doesnt imply that he is either better than Mahomes or has a better cast. The picture is bigger than that and you know it is.
     
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  37. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Also why do we even need a reason. If all the data you're using for this analogy is pointing to Tannehill having as good or better a regular season than Mahomes, it seems to me the data has spoken.

    Anything beyond that is just trying to find a reason to discredit the data rather than trusting the data itself. In the end if you agree you cant trust the data on it's own, I dont see how you can use it to prove your point.
     
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  38. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    And if he's not the better quarterback in general, then that means he was the better quarterback last season because he was the beneficiary of situational advantages. Again, no other way around it.

    Or are you arguing he's the better quarterback in general?
     
  39. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Those (highlighted above) are examples of situational advantages as well.

    Again, if Tannehill isn't better than Mahomes in general, Mahomes's surroundings were Super Bowl champion-caliber, and Tannehill outperformed Mahomes, then Tannehill must have been the beneficiary of situational advantages.

    Pick whatever situational advantages you'd like, including the ones you nominated. The point is that he was most certainly experiencing situational advantages, because he isn't the better quarterback.
     
  40. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    So your assertion is that the 2019 data indicate Tannehill is a better QB than Mahomes in general?

    If Tannehill isn't better than Mahomes in general, and the data indicate Tannehill outplayed Mahomes, whose surroundings were Super Bowl champion-caliber, then by definition the data indicate situational advantages for Tannehill.

    There's no way around it folks. It's time to pack this one up and close it down. The only people who should be speaking here at this point are the ones who are willing to assert that Tannehill is better than Mahomes in general. Anyone?
     

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