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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You're right -- it doesn't necessarily mean that. It just means he was experiencing advantages that aren't due to his individual ability. The advantages were situational and environmental (i.e., external), not internal.

    Or do you think Tannehill outplayed Mahomes in 2019 because Tannehill has greater individual ability than Mahomes?

    If you don't believe Tannehill has greater individual ability than Mahomes, then by definition you believe Tannehill benefited from situational advantages!

    You have to pick one or the other. Either Tannehill benefited from situational advantages, or Tannehill has greater individual ability than Mahomes. It can't be neither.
     
  2. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    lol

    Dude.. we are less than 24 hours away from the first game of the 2020 season. There is NO way this thread or debate is dying down. Titans play on Monday. That's when I predict a huge number of weekly "I told you so's" will begin populating this thread. The only question is which posters will be saying that lol.

    Like last year, I'll update you guys on the statistical significance of Tannehill 88 Miami (adjusted) ratings vs. all his regular season games in Tennessee after each game. Right now the probability Tannehill's 88 Miami ratings come from the same QB as his 11 Tennessee ratings is an utterly tiny 0.02982%! That figure has to rise to 5% for non-significance.

    So he has a massive head start. In any case, my personal view of Tannehill's "true" ability will be primarily determined by what that percentage is at the end of the season, assuming he starts 8+ games or so.

    2020 season is here!! => maybe another 233 pages of a former Dolphins QB named Tannehill? Like I said.. LOL.
     
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  3. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    [​IMG]


    There may come a time when this thread gets moved, but for now, since Ryan was a major part of the Dolphins for some years it can stay. Clearly people want to discuss this former Miami QB.

    I've changed the name to clean it up.

    Just don't let it get personal please. Let's try to keep this place non-toxic.

    Try to realise that no-one is being convinced by any of this. You're all well and truly entrenched.

    Just try to enjoy the debate/analysis for its own sake.
     
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2020
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  4. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Why will you determine his true ability on the basis of the difference between his performance in Miami and his performance in Tennessee, as opposed to the degree to which his career performance distinguishes him from the average QB?
     
  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Because it's possible his surroundings in Miami were holding him back. He goes to a new team and his z-score goes from -0.1166 for his 88 Miami games to 2.5877 for his 11 Tennessee games. That's a MASSIVE change. Yet if you just look at career average so far, those Tennessee games hardly make a dent: his overall z-score is 0.1254.

    So which would you rather do? Go with overall career z-score when even another very good year in Tennessee will hardy make a dent in the overall average? Or use 2 years worth of data from his new surroundings to see if Tannehill really was being held back in Miami? I think the choice is clear, at least for decisions made after this year.

    When Tannehill plays 10-15 seasons in the NFL there's no need to separate stuff like this, but right now there is.
     
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  6. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    But how can you determine whether his surroundings in Miami were holding him back, versus his surroundings in Tennessee being exceptionally good? If that can’t be determined definitively, then we don’t know what kind of individual ability we’re actually dealing with.
     
  7. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    It's hard to argue his surroundings in Tennessee per se (independent of Tannehill) were "exceptionally good". You have years of that team's passing offense with Mariota performing around average, and by points scored they weren't that good.

    So the question is whether the surroundings Tannehill has right now is ideal for him, not necessarily in general (Mariota stares at you if you push that argument too far). How will we know that? His performance with those surroundings.

    It's definitely possible last year was a fluke, in which case that was just random variation that occasionally occurs. But if he keeps this up (and it doesn't have to be anywhere as good as last year), then you have a strong argument to make that all Tannehill needed were such surroundings.

    Either way, you'll never "definitively" determine any of this. It'll always remain probabilities we're talking about. And if we're talking probabilities, you might as well use statistical significance as the threshold.
     
  8. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Slightly left of center

    I won't speak for anyone else but personally I don't appreciate the double standard. This topic can absolutely continue to be debated. In the Other NFL forum. If this is the standard for topics of discussion for the Miami Dolphins thread please apply it equally to all threads started and posted here.

    For instance, If I started a thread about Cameron Wake where would it get moved to? Matt Moore? Laremy Tunsil? Gase?

    Tannehill was the QB of the Dolphins. He hasn't been the QB of the Dolphins for 2 years.

    Changing the title of the thread doesn't change anything, weak sauce man.
     
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  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    With regard to the highlighted portion above, a couple things are noteworthy: 1) the correlation between Tannehill's passing volume (percentage of offensive plays as pass dropbacks) and Derrick Henry's efficiency (yards per carry), game-by-game in 2019, was -0.64, and 2) the correlation between Tannehill's passer rating and Derrick Henry's efficiency, game-by-game in 2019, was 0.64, and that figure was more than two standard deviations above the league average -- in other words, contrary to what may be popular belief, quarterbacks' performances in general don't vary strongly as a function of the efficiency of their run games.

    So again, when Derrick Henry ran the ball better, Tannehill passed the ball less, and when Derrick Henry ran the ball better, Tannehill passed the ball better (and vice-versa).

    The above figures for Marcus Mariota in 2018 were -0.05 and -0.22 -- quite the difference. In other words there was no relationship between Mariota's passing volume and Henry's efficiency, and there was a weak and inverse relationship between Mariota's passer rating and Henry's efficiency -- when Henry performed better, Mariota performed worse (again those variables are weakly related, however).

    So for some reason Tannehill's performance in 2019, in terms of both his passing volume and his passer rating, was strongly intertwined with that of Henry, whereas that wasn't the case for Mariota in 2018. And Mariota's performance indeed varied that season -- he had six games for example with an average passer rating of 118.2. Henry's average number of yards per carry in those games? 3.67.

    Furthermore, when we look at the abnormally strong seasons by Nick Foles and Andy Dalton -- two QBs who have likewise produced single great seasons "out of nowhere" -- we see the same very strong (compared to the league norm) correlations between their passer ratings and the efficiency of their run games (game-by-game). Those QBs, like Tannehill, also had abbreviated seasons those years.

    So for now, with only 11 games of this nature under his belt, I think we have to surmise that Tannehill was benefiting from an unusually strong relationship with his run game.
     
  10. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    For me it's not so cut and dried, as much of what we're discussing is the Dolphins teams and games from when Tannehill was here.

    To each his own, I guess.
     
  11. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    The difference between Tannehill and Moore and Tunsil is that Ryan played a longer and more important role. Nevertheless, if someone started a debate topic about one of them and people wanted to dig into it and try to get to the bottom of a player's performance as opposed to others aspects of the team, that would be valid. It's probably just less likely that anyone would.

    I understand how this thread or topic can be tiresome to some, but the same can be said for other topics too. The bottom line is that no one is forced to come into this thread and read it.

    The threads that will definitely be moved to Other NFL will be those with no bearing on the Dolphins at all, or which are more appropriately connected with the league in general. Threads that will get themselves closed are ones which don't adhere to the TOS or consistently generate a 'toxic' atmosphere.

    The Tannehill debate started while he was with the team and it continues because 1 - people are passionate about what they saw in him - and 2 - there's a chance to see a player in a difference environment. To that extent people can debate Tannehill, even if their arguments aren't persuading anyone.

    Having a good argument isn't required for posting here. Respecting one another is. This thread has come close to getting out of hand at times but has more or less stayed on the rails.

    So, if someone wants to discuss Tannehill, they can do it here. If they don't they can just ignore thread.

    If you feel some other thread has been unfairly treated please feel welcome to send a message any of the mods and admins who'll handle it with the team.
     
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2020
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  12. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I can't help but mention that if it wasn't for Matt Moore coming off the bench last season with a 100.9 rating across six games (2 starts), KC wouldn't have made it to the super bowl. I could easily argue that his contributions were even bigger than Tannehill's in 2019...but that's because he's like the best QB ever.

    LOL, I miss defending my boy Matt with all the haters here. I loved that dude! =)
     
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  13. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    It's funny. Over a year separated and Ryan Tannehill is STILL being debated.

    For the record I am still of the mind that a large portion of his problems here were related to here. I think if he puts together another season like he did last year any more debate on the subject will be pointless.
     
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  14. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Seriously, it's a new era in Miami.. How many more pages of gloating and debate is needed because he had a breakout season on a different team? We get it already! It's a new era in Miami. There is no debate about the Tannehill era in Miami as it was a failure from a playoff perspective and stability of the franchise perspective, for a large variety of reasons including Tannehill.

    This post should be moved to a different place. I'm sure the last thing a newbie that hasn't visited these forums wants to see is 10,000 post debate about Tannehill when we have Tua and have moved in a different direction. I vote for moving the thread.
     
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  15. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    As someone who's posted very frequently in this thread, I for one don't care where it is. Whether it's here or in a sub-forum doesn't matter to me.
     
  16. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    What you quantify as “better” is so vague and polluted with bias, it’s laughable.

    Is Mahomes a better quarterback than Tannehill? You would say yes although every meaningful statistic actually shows otherwise...unless of course you pull the trump card that Mahomes won the Super Bowl and Tannehill didn’t, which I’ll further elaborate on in a minute.

    Average per attempt, average per completion, CPOE...EVERY meaningful, measurable and situational passing stat, Tannehill’s better than Mahomes. The one thing Mahomes possesses that Tannehill does not is an immeasurable benchmark...his ability to escape pressure and make a play, be it rush for yardage or extend a play to find an open receiver. But if you use that as the sole reason to gauge Mahomes as better than Tannehill, then Cam Newton is a better quarterback than Tom Brady 5 years ago.

    Well, now I see what’s coming next. Tannehill’s only that good because of his surroundings. Mahomes doesn’t need that. Yea, you’re right. Mahomes snaps the ball to himself, blocks for himself, runs down the field and throws the ball to himself. We’ve already gone over this time and time again. Any and all quarterbacks are only as good as his surroundings. We went into great depth Brady’s performance once he was given true receiving talent in Moss and Welker and a dependable running back in Kevin Faulk...It went through the roof as the Pats finished the regular season undefeated.

    I know, I know...Mahomes won the Super Bowl, case closed. Well if that becomes the argument then baby brother Eli Manning was a far better quarterback than big brother Peyton...since Eli had 2 before a Peyton ever won one.

    I wish folks would quit with the petty numbers games to diminish what any blind man can see...Tannehill is a GREAT quarterback and only a fool would disagree with that
     
  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    OK so you've made it clear that your position is that Tannehill is a better QB than Mahomes.

    I think we can cast you aside at this point.
     
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  18. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    So you wouldn't trade Tannehill for Mahomes? L M F A O. Tannehill is not a GREAT QB, he's a good QB that had a good run for one season. Go look at the preseason QB rankings, Tannehill shot up from the 32nd best QB to at best the 20th QB.. Not exactly a "GREAT" QB.

    Funniest take I've ever read and I've read some funny takes. You may have overtaken the guys that were calling for Scott Mitchell to replace Dan Marino.
     
  19. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Not only that, but Mahomes is the highest-paid player in the history of the game. Now, either the Chiefs are dumb, or Mahomes is the best and most valuable player in the NFL.
     
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  20. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Dark is a great dude - I think he's lightly trolling you.... At least I hope he is.
     
  21. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    No TDK's been consistent in his view. He's made the prediction repeatedly in this thread that Tannehill would start having Drew Brees like seasons from here on out (barring some unforeseen injury or dismantling of the Titans offense or so of course). So none of what he wrote above is new or inconsistent with what he's said previously.

    I pointed out to him that the kind of change he's predicting would be a 1st in NFL history: 6 years statistically average to sustained Brees like stats has NEVER happened. So I said if he's right about this he would get MASSIVE credibility, but if he's wrong he needs to stop acting like his "football knowledge" is so superior. And so far it looks like he's fine with that.

    So let the 2020 season decide. Real data will help settle this (or at least settle some of the issues raised).
     
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  22. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Since when did real data apply to Ryan?
     
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  23. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I'll say something else about this: in 2013, with regard to many of the same measurable statistics, Nick Foles was better than Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, and Philip Rivers (and Ryan Tannehill).

    Obviously that didn't mean Foles is better than all of them. Obviously Foles must've been experiencing situational advantages that year.

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2013/passing.htm
     
  24. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I think what was impressive that season for Foles was 27 TDS and 2 ints.

    And didn't that turn into a pretty massive contract for him?
     
  25. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Maybe just a little...but then again :wink2:
     
  26. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    And thus far, I still stick to my guns. Stranger predictions have come true.

    Ask Anne Coulter :wink2:
     
  27. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I know you disagree but in SD, Brees was mostly an 'average' QB, with an excellent supporting cast. IMO, Brees turning into Brees is the 1st time it happened. Tannehill turning into Brees would be the second. The difference being, Tannehill had a far worse supporting cast in Miami. Brees played with to HOF players on offense in SD and one on defense.
     
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  28. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Uh oh, Andy Reid has lost confidence in Mahomes..... 32 passes to 34 runs and a paltry 211 yards passing.....

    Meanwhile Watson had an impressive 32/22 pass/run ratio. Clearly he is the better QB.....
     
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  29. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    This kind of illustrates a point I've made many times past about NFL teams with GREAT quarterbacks. Teams with GREAT quarterbacks already possessed good teams, but was missing that one elusive piece to elevate said team to greatness.

    New England and Tom Brady
    Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers
    New Orleans and Drew Brees
    Pittsburgh and Ben Roethlisberger
    Seattle and Russell Wilson
    Baltimore and Lamar Jackson
    Houston and Deshaun Watson
    Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes

    Would anyone truly argue that these weren't already good to great TEAMS without these said quarterbacks? I've often said and still believe it to this day, build the race car (a solid football team) and then hire the driver (get the quarterback to to run the team).

    Green Bay, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Baltimore, Houston and Kansas City all did just that with their quarterbacks. They had either built the team and needed a quarterback or already had a great team for the heir apparent to take over. New England just plain lucked out with an obscure unknown in Brady falling into their lap.

    Last season, Mike Vrabel followed "my blueprint" by trading to get Tannehill. I think he knew deep down that Mariotta wasn't the "driver" for his race car and finally pulled the trigger and put Tannehill in the driver's seat. The rest is history.
     
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  30. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I do not think you can end up 3rd in the league in passer rating over 15 games starting just through an excellent supporting cast. That's what happened in 2004 in Brees' 3rd year starting, or 4th year overall. If you're willing to say the supporting cast was all that it took then you might as well ascribe all of 2019 Tannehill to his supporting cast. No, that's far too difficult an achievement for it to not have nothing to do with the QB itself.

    And Brees ended up 10th in passer rating the next year, in 2005. So that's 2 out of 4 years in "top 10", one of which was "top 3", while with Tannehill the best he did in 6 years is #12. No, there is absolutely no comparison between Brees and Tannehill.

    Either way, there has NEVER been a case where you had 6 years of statistically average QB play followed by Drew Brees like play, at least since 1978. That's a fact, regardless of how you want to "explain" the data.
     
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  31. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I know you're being facetious but after seeing last night's game, Kansas City is even a MORE dangerous team this season than they were last season.

    Offensively, Kansas City found their "Derrick Henry" and Andy Reid who LOVES throwing the ball was not afraid one bit to let Edwards-Helaire loose. The Chiefs ran the ball so effectively, maintained long sustained drives and scored points, they didn't need Mahomes to throw the ball 40+ times to overcome a 21+ point deficit, like they had to do several times last season. They had a COMPLETE offense. Mahomes, Edwards-Helaire, Hill and Kelce are going to reek havoc on the league this season.

    Defensively, I saw an aggression in Kansas City's defense that I didn't see last season. Houston is a dangerous team offensively but they didn't let them score another point after their initial first quarter touchdown. Great job!
     
  32. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    There are so many examples to the contrary.

    What about Peyton Manning and the Colts? 3-13 team before he went there. Or even Manning and Denver. You think having a 24th ranked defense by points allowed in the year before Manning went there is a "good team" that was only missing a QB? Or what about Montana and SF? That was a 2-14 team he went to. Or Wilson to Seattle. It wasn't just Wilson that was drafted to make that team a SB team. They had to draft that defense.

    No it's not true that "great" QB's went to teams that were already solid. In fact, given how the draft is set up so that the top picks tend to go to the worst teams, the NFL is structurally set up to make your statement increasingly false over time.
     
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  33. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    It's interesting how the strongest proponents of the "supporting cast" theory in this thread are also the ones who most strongly discount the possible effects of Tannehill's supporting cast in 2019 that I've theorized about here. It's as if there are no differences in individual ability among NFL QBs, unless we're talking about Ryan Tannehill in 2019 -- then it's all him.
     
  34. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    But how many times has a statistically average QB been in 5 different offenses in seven years? Only bad teams have that much coaching/front office turnover and that alone tells you that it's not squarely on the players. For Tannehill to be average across four different offenses in Miami with significant injury on top of it, that would tell me he had a decent shot to be better than average with some stability.

    The only way this argument gets settled is if Tennessee sticks with their same coaching and lets RT grow in that system for multiple seasons...then we have more of an apples to apples comparison. I don't think the "six years" is as important as the team surrounding him- do you really think that if RT was traded to that 2019 Titan's team in his 2nd or 4th year, he wouldn't have similar results?

    I personally want to see 2 more seasons in the exact same offense to pass a final judgement; it makes no difference to me that he'll be in years 8 and 9. To me, this isn't about "How'd RT get so good" as much as it's "How'd the Dolphins remain so average"?
     
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  35. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The Chiefs were never down by that margin last year, and certainly not "several times."

    Is this what you do to justify your theory that "running the ball wins games"? Invent data?

    https://www.pro-football-reference....am_id=kan&c5val=1.0&order_by=score_diff_3_qtr
     
  36. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Here's an idea: when you have a theory, do the research necessary to investigate its validity. With the internet it's not that hard.
     
  37. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    The test I said I'm using: statistical significance between Tannehill's Miami ratings (adjusted to a common year) and Tannehill's Tennessee ratings for 2019-2020 (also adjusted) is at least for me a really good way of "settling" this debate without having to wait till Tannehill's career ends, at which point you'll have final judgment statistically.

    There have been quite a few cases where an otherwise average QB had an anomalous year and even came in 1st in passer rating in one year (I listed a bunch earlier in this thread) but statistical significance over 2 consecutive years after a long stretch of average play is so difficult that it's extremely unlikely a full career's worth of data will overturn that.

    So for me 2020 will very likely reveal what 2019 was about. Yes, a full career's worth of data may overturn that analysis, but it's extremely unlikely.
     
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  38. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Like I said (and Dark mentioned earlier), I just want to see what he does with stability in the same offense with basically the same talent and coaching. We know for a fact that in 2020 he's in a system where he can succeed- so prior excuses no longer apply (the line sucks, the coaches suck, etc.). Either he'll grind out a few more great seasons or he won't.

    In other words, I'm ignoring the first six seasons entirely and calling them the anomaly. 2019 was the baseline, while 2020 and 2021 will solve for my personal "x".
     
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  39. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    That was one game. I doubt Edwards-Helaire will produce like Henry did over a season. The thing about Henry last year was that defenses could game plan for him and still not stop him, just like defenses can game plan for Mahomes and still be burned. Edwards-Helaire is in a great position: Mahomes opens up the threat of the run like few QB's can. Still.. I doubt he will produce like Henry over a full season. We'll see.
     
  40. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Wait wait wait wait...let's get things into perspective here cbrad. The Colts team really wasn't as bad as what you're trying to portray. Ted Marchibroda actually built the Colts and was THAT close to the Super Bowl in 1995. A contract dispute between Marchibroda and the Colts resulted in his dismissal and the promotion of Lindy Infante to HC...the Adam Gase of his time. The Colts, with the same personnel Marchibroda had fell on their faces, leading to the firing of Infante, the hiring of Jim Mora and the drafting of Peyton Manning. The Colts were not as bad of a team as you're eluding they were.

    As for Wilson, he was drafted during Pete Carroll's 3rd season as head coach. Carroll was building the team he wanted and Russell was the final piece. Remember, Carroll took the Seahawks to the NFC Divisional playoffs his 1st season as HC with Matt Hasselbeck as his quarterback. He was an average quarterback with a good offense. Carroll needed an upgrade at quarterback and got it in Wilson.

    You have to look at the totality of a team...what the overall situation is, what has transpired and with whom. Manning and Wilson both fell into good situations. You're almost making it sound as if these teams drafted these two players and built around them. The team itself was already built.
     

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