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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That's a good point and certainly applies. You certainly can't let Henry run up and down the field and have a big percentage of those drives end in touchdowns.
     
  2. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    You are a stats guy and you are willing to say with some degree of certainty that two examples give you a strong enough indication that it works? Feels a bit thin, but if you are saying you think its enough to at least look into it, I have no problem with it. I would say that if you think the Titans will be a static offense for you so you can run your defense scheme with no adjustments made, you might be in for a painful Sunday.
     
  3. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    No, can't say with any certainty that it'll work, because I don't think we have the data to support that (i.e., cbrad's point earlier), but with the data regarding the way they are winning, I think you have to move in this direction.

    I mean if 1) Derrick Henry runs just as well against stacked boxes as he does against non-stacked boxes, 2) Tannehill and the passing game play far better against stacked boxes than they do against non-stacked boxes, and 3) the data indicate they are winning with passing efficiency and not running efficiency, what else is there to do but stop stacking the box as much and start defending the passing game more?
     
  4. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    The Titans' offense is nearly unstoppable in the red zone. What was it, 31 out of 39 possessions in the red zone resulted in touchdowns...something like that?

    You HAVE to stop Henry but then again, even stopping him isn't effective. The Titans are committed to the run, period. It's all part of their formula. Consistent running sets up play action pass...a formula I've advocated for DECADES, especially after I saw how Joe Montana decimated defenses while in San Francisco and Kansas City.
     
  5. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    First, the idea that "you have to stop Henry" is in direct contrast to the data, that show the Titans are winning with the passing game and not the running game. You have to stop the Titans' passing game.

    Second, there is little if any relationship between running the ball and and play-action (see the article linked below).

    Third, just because a team uses play-action doesn't mean the defense has to bite on it all the time. Surely you've seen play-action on a 3rd and 15 when the offense is down big on the scoreboard, with no response to it at all by the opposing defense. Defenses can simply respond more in that kind of manner more of the time, if they simply gameplan in that way.

    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/further-research-play-action-passing
     
  6. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I'm confused...I thought Henry was the reason they were successful. Now it's the passing game is what they're winning with...but Tannehill is only good because of Henry.

    Look, if you believe that you have to stop the passing game to beat them, then aren't you tacitly agreeing that Tannehill is the guy you need to stop?
     
  7. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Again look at the following info:
    What you see there is a pattern of play whereby 1) defenses focus on Henry with stacked boxes, 2) Henry runs well against stacked boxes nonetheless, and 3) Tannehill and the passing game play far better against stacked boxes than against non-stacked boxes.

    So, the questions in my opinion become, how much of Tannehill's individual performance is attributable to opposing defenses' focus on Henry, and, what would happen with Tannehill and the Titans if opposing defenses shift their focus off of Henry and onto the Titans' passing game?

    None of that is inconsistent with the notion that Tannehill may be benefiting strongly from Henry.

    https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/slow-down-derrick-henry-titans-stacked-box/
     
  8. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL. Up is down, down is up......
     
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  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Like I said earlier, however, I will concede that if teams gameplan to stop Henry and stack boxes against the Titans, and the Titans counter with heavy doses of play-action, Tannehill becomes an all-world QB. That's become too established to deny at this point.

    The remaining question is whether that's a product of defenses' approach to them, and whether it'll change if the defensive approach changes.
     
  10. muskrat21

    muskrat21 Well-Known Member

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    you better hope henry doesn't get hurt if you think he doesn't carry the titans. If henry gets hurt, titans win a max of 3 games without him.
     
  11. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    See you’re looking at stats again and not the game. If you aren’t running the ball, then defenses aren’t going to bite on play action pass. We ourselves experienced that several years ago. We weren’t running the ball at all and what do we do on 2nd and long? Oh we ran play action pass that never worked. If you’re running the ball, you’re baiting the defense for play action.
     
  12. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I highly doubt that
     
  13. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    I thought The Guy argued that its because of Henry is why Tannehill is successful, now you have to stop the passing game?
     
  14. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    If defenses could stop Henry by focusing on him, I would feel differently.
     
  15. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You need to read the stuff in the article linked below. There is no relationship between running game variables and play-action effectiveness. Sometimes what we believe just isn't true.

    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/further-research-play-action-passing
     
  16. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    Henry really hasn't had a good game yet this year. At least not by his standards. I'm starting to think he is more of a 2nd half of the season kind of back. He just doesn't seem like he is as powerful as he usually is. Maybe he isn't in prime playing form yet.
     
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  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I agree, and I have to wonder if lots of last year's performance was "contract year" stuff.
     
  18. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    I hope not. with the power he showed last year he is a natural at hitting the holes and running people over. It would suck if he is one of those players that only gets motivated for contract years.
     
  19. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yet you couldn't run play action on every okay and expect it to continue to work. Play action is very dependent on down and distance, and score.
     
  20. Patster1969

    Patster1969 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    100% How many teams running the Run & Shoot offense won the SB - I would say none.
     
  21. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  22. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Interesting point. When the discussion began concerning Tannehill and his caliber as a quarterback, certain posters kept decrying, there isn’t enough data to support that conclusion however...

    He wishes to use 2 games, on e that resulted in a win and the other in a loss and claim, by this statistically minuscule same size a definitive solution to rendering the Titans offense.

    Can’t have it BOTH ways...if minuscule sample size is adequate enough to determine definitive formula to stop the Titans, then the more than ample data sample is sufficient to determine Tannehill is a great quarterback.
     
  23. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You're a frustrating person to interact with, because there's regularly a substantial percentage of information offered to you that you simply don't absorb. Take the following response to the post you quoted, for example:
    When you see that do you simply ignore it?
     
  24. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I suspect it's far more dependent on those variables than it is on running game variables. In fact I suspect its effectiveness is predominantly a function of whether it's being used in a situation in which defenses are expecting a run and playing to stop it, regardless of other running game variables (previous attempts, yards, efficiency, etc.).

    In terms of down and distance, Ryan Tannehill had his greatest number of pass attempts on 1st and 10 in 2019, with a passer rating of 117.2 on those plays. His second-highest number of pass attempts was on 2nd and 10, with a passer rating of 120.7. On what percentage of those plays do you figure play-action was used against a defense playing to stop Derrick Henry?
     
  25. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Pay particular attention at 1:15

     
  26. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Right, so if you never run the ball and defenses know that, then play-action doesn't work. Nobody is arguing anything in opposition to that.
     
  27. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Don’t you know that anything that Tannehill does well is either irrelevant or so easy that any QB can do it and anything that Tannehill needs to work on is critical and disqualifies him for consideration as a very good QB? Also anything that Tannehill’s team does well happens with no input from Tannehill but is absolutely required for Tannehill to be successful.

    Tannehill is basically a parasite on the Titans offense. He provides no value to the host and is completely dependent on it.
     
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  28. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Post #9843...

    Your OWN words...

    Up? Down? Left? Right? Black? White? Day? Night?

    Which is it this time? I'm confused
     
  29. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    If you read the article I linked that prompted what I wrote, it may help.
     
  30. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I actually did start to read it...then I stopped, because either you copied and pasted...copied almost verbatim or you're the author of said article as what you state in your "relationship", "correlation" and "causation" arguments were nearly identical.

    A lot of times, it seems like Matt Damon in Good Will Hunting..."Yea, I read that book too...do you have an original thought or do you just quote someone else and pass it off as your own?"
     
  31. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The article has a large amount of empirical research in it, so no, I don't have an original thought about the issue when what I think should be readily informed by that kind of work someone else has done. I don't have a problem with humbly acknowledging that the work someone else has done represents a far more authoritative view of the issue than whatever I could muster.
     
  32. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Something interesting here.

    Here are the 2019 data regarding Tannehill's YPA as a function of the probability with which teams run the ball throughout the league, grouped by down and distance:

    YPA ; Run Probability
    1st & 10 11.8 ; 53
    2nd & 4-6 8.3 ; 46
    2nd & 7-9 10.6 ; 34
    2nd & 10+ 8.5 ; 31
    3rd & 4-6 7.8 ; 12
    3rd & 7-9 7.7 ; 8
    3rd & 10+ 8.9 ; 16
    3rd/4th & short 11.1 ; 47

    The correlation between his YPA and teams' run probability throughout the league was 0.75. As the probability of teams' running the ball increased throughout the league, so did Tannehill's YPA increase.

    Here are the same data for Lamar Jackson in 2019:

    1st & 10 8 ; 53
    2nd & 4-6 9.1 ; 46
    2nd & 7-9 7.6 ; 34
    2nd & 10+ 8.1 ; 31
    3rd & 4-6 6.4 ; 12
    3rd & 7-9 6.9 ; 8
    3rd & 10+ 10.4 ; 16
    3rd/4th & short 9.2 ; 47

    That correlation was 0.34, far weaker than Tannehill's 0.75.

    Same data for Drew Brees in 2019:

    1st & 10 9.1 ; 53
    2nd & 4-6 5.3 ; 46
    2nd & 7-9 8.3 ; 34
    2nd & 10+ 6.9 ; 31
    3rd & 4-6 8.8 ; 12
    3rd & 7-9 6.1 ; 8
    3rd & 10+ 8.8 ;16
    3rd/4th & short 10.6 ; 47

    That correlation was 0.20. Far weaker.

    Same data for Russell Wilson in 2019:

    1st & 10 7.4 ; 53
    2nd & 4-6 5.9 ; 46
    2nd & 7-9 8.5 ; 34
    2nd & 10+ 9.8 ; 31
    3rd & 4-6 8.6 ; 12
    3rd & 7-9 7.6 ; 8
    3rd & 10+ 7.9 ; 16
    3rd/4th & short 8 ; 47

    That correlation was -0.32. A fairly weak correlation between YPA and run probability, though in the inverse direction -- as run probability decreased, Wilson's YPA increased.

    Same data for Patrick Mahomes in 2019:

    1st & 10 8.9 ; 53
    2nd & 4-6 6 ; 46
    2nd & 7-9 6.4; 34
    2nd & 10+ 9 ; 31
    3rd & 4-6 9.7 ; 12
    3rd & 7-9 10.9 ; 8
    3rd & 10+ 10.1 ; 16
    3rd/4th & short 7.3 ; 47

    That correlation was -0.72. A strong and inverse correlation -- as run probability decreased, Mahomes's YPA increased, and strongly. Essentially the opposite of Tannehill's performance in this regard.

    So of the best QBs in the league in 2019, only Tannehill's performance in terms of YPA depended strongly on whether he threw the ball in a down and distance situation in which teams' probability of running the ball was greater.

    I think that suggests, once again, that Tannehill benefited from Derrick Henry, as well as from opposing defenses' playing to stop Henry, as they presumably would in situations in which teams more often run the ball throughout the league.
     
  33. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Another interesting finding with regard to the above. If we correlate sack percentage (sacks divided by pass attempts) with run probability, grouped by down and distance (as above), for each of the above QBs in 2019, we get the following:

    Tannehill: -0.46
    Brees: -0.60
    Wilson: -0.50
    Mahomes: -0.51
    Jackson: -0.10

    So we see a unique contribution by Lamar Jackson to his team here -- the ability to avoid sacks even in down and distance situations in which run probability is low, far greater than the other top QBs in the league.

    If you drop Tannehill back to pass in a down and distance situation in which run probability is low, you decrease his YPA far more than the other top QBs in the league while making him just as likely to be sacked as most of them. If you drop Patrick Mahomes back to pass in a down and distance sitaution in which run probability is low, you increase his YPA while making him just as likely to be sacked as most other top QBs in the league.

    If however you drop Lamar Jackson back to pass in a down and distance situation in which run probability is low, you decrease his YPA somewhat (far less than for Tannehill), but he's far less likely to be sacked than the other top QBs in such a scenario. Given that sacks end offensive drives 84% of the time, that's quite a contribution by Jackson.
     
  34. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    upload_2020-9-26_17-2-44.png
     

    Attached Files:

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  35. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    More about the above:

    YPA-Sack Rate.jpg
    Here we see the common down and distance situation with the lowest run probability throughout the league. In other words, of the common down and distance situations experienced by teams, 3rd down and 7 to 9 yards to go is the one in which teams are least likely to run the ball. They run the ball only 8% of the time in that situation.

    The variables graphed above are YPA and sack rate. YPA is yards per pass attempt. Sack rate is sacks divided by pass attempts. Sack rate is important because 84% of drives end when a sack occurs on any down during the drive. Obviously on 3rd down and 7 to 9 yards to go, a sack will almost always end the drive.

    What we see above is that Patrick Mahomes provides a unique contribution to his team in that situation, consisting of extremely high YPA, accompanied by an extremely low sack rate (comparatively speaking). When you drop Patrick Mahomes back to pass and the whole world -- including the opposing defense -- knows he's going to pass, he nonetheless performs extremely well.

    The performances in this regard by the other QBs above are self-explanatory.
     
  36. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Same as above, with the only change being the down and distance situation -- 3rd down and 4 to 6 yards to go. Run probability throughout the league in that situation is second-lowest, at 12%. Teams run the ball 12% of the time in that situation.

    YPA-Sack Rate2.jpg
     
  37. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Now let's look at what happens when run probability throughout the league is highest -- on 1st and 10:

    YPA-Sack Rate3.jpg
    So we see here that when we examine the common down and distance situation in which run probability is at its maximum, Tannehill nonetheless retains an extremely high sack rate in comparison to the other top QBs in the league, while his YPA skyrockets in comparison to the graphs above, where run probability was much smaller.

    I think it's clear that Tannehill's performance in 2019 was largely a function of run probability, and whether opposing defenses were anticipating the run or the pass, assuming defenses throughout the league base such decisions on actual probabilities, as they should. Consider also that when facing the Titans in 2019, run probability was magnified by the presence of Derrick Henry, whereas for the other QBs noted above there was no such run threat.

    What's also clear in my opinion is that Tannehill was uniquely susceptible to drive-killing sacks, far more than the other top QBs in the league in 2019. And of course sacks aren't figured into many of the statistics we've been using to evaluate his performance (e.g., passer rating), despite their profound impact on the game.

    So, when we propose that "coaching" was at least in part responsible for Tannehill's performance in 2019, consider that such "coaching" may have involved nothing other than 1) having him pass the ball in situations in which runs are expected by opposing defenses, and 2) having the effect of that be amplified by the threat of Derrick Henry.

    In that sense there may have been no "magical" coaching used with Tannehill in 2019. The Titans' coaches may have simply benefited from utilizing Tannehill situationally as a function of Derrick Henry and down and distance.
     
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2020
  38. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    44 yards to Raymond was beauty.
     
  39. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    A great pass, yes, but in a situation (2nd down and 5) in which there is high run probability (46%) throughout the league. Pay attention to Tannehill's performance as a function of the run probability involved. Tannehill appears to make his living in the passing game, often with play-action, in situations in which opposing defenses would presumably be defending the run game. And the Titans' coaches appear to call plays with that in mind.
     
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  40. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    You seen that pass to Jonnu in the middle?

    But, but, but, play action pass....
     

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