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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yet Mariota still sucked despite Henry. Lol

    Give it a rest man.
     
  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Cleo Lemon would suck as well, despite Henry. What does that tell us?
     
  3. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Tannehill with another great deep throw
     
  4. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    On 1st and 10, on play-action, once again. Even the color commentary guy said something about how the Vikings were crowding the line to stop Derrick Henry.
     
  5. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    You're point?

    Tannehill doesnt have Mahomes type of weapons
     
  6. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The point is the degree of difficulty involved, once again.

    Obviously if you're making your living in situations in which opposing teams are defending against the run game, the degree of difficulty of your passing game is far lower than it would be if you were making your living in situations in which opposing teams are defending against the passing game.
     
  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    That's an unprovable hypothesis.
     
  8. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Update on Tannehill stats: 105.81 rating after 3 games, and 0.0489% probability he's "the same QB" as in Miami.

    Today he was a bit off though. Some good stuff mixed in with some bad passes and bad pocket awareness. But it was good enough to win. Steelers, Bills and Texans coming up next for Tennessee, though the schedule gets easier after that.

    Actually, Texans are now 0-3 and doing their best to give the Dolphins a high draft pick so maybe that won't be as difficult a game as initially thought.
     
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  9. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    I think this was his worst game as a Titan, but I ll still take it. He had some good passes and made some nice plays in the second half.

    This next three games he is going to have to play lights out for the Titans to win.
     
  10. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Cleo Lemon won the Heisman?
     
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  11. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Sadly I didn’t get to see this game today but something to point out before the anti-Tannehill doom and gloom takes prescience...

    The Vikings are the first REAL game the Titans had this year. You guys do remember Minnesota, the miracle playoff team in the NFC that won their wildcard game and lost the divisional game to the 49ers, right?
     
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  12. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Nearly caught that pass too at the end in the hail mary.
     
  13. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    This was the kind of "clunker" game he experienced a whole lot more frequently with the Dolphins -- a game well below league average in passer rating. Outside of maybe the Carolina game last year, he's had exactly zero of those as a regular season starter with the Titans, a minuscule rate that even for the best QBs in the league is less than expected. Patrick Mahomes for example had four such games last year.

    So keep in mind that his overall passer rating with the Titans has been comprised of a balance of games with above-average passer ratings that isn't likely to be sustained. Either Tannehill is the best QB in the league, or similar "clunkers" are forthcoming.
     
  14. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    No, but Danny Wuerffel did.
     
  15. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I couldn't watch the game today either, but six field goals tells me that RT must have struggled getting to the red zone today. The 105.81 overall rating on the year is still impressive though.

    cBrad, how many games into the season do we need to "predict" whether this trend will/will not continue throughout the season? Maybe 6-8 minimum? Or can we do it with less if he has dominant games over the next few weeks?
     
  16. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I don't think the jury is in yet about how good the Vikings' defense is this year. Prior to today's game the they had one of the worst pass defenses in the league:

    [​IMG]

    The Titans' EPA per pass play today was a very lowly -0.01.
     
  17. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    The absolute minimum is 150 passing attempts before stats from 2 QB's that are actually different in skill level start to become "statistically significant" (with rare exceptions). So that's your first threshold. But keep in mind that this minimum threshold really only applies when you're testing for a large difference in skill level, not small. So if you're trying to distinguish "elite" from "average" (depends on the precise definitions of course) then 150 attempts should suffice, but to distinguish "above average" from "average" you'll need more, maybe 250+ attempts.

    Thing is, statistical significance depends not just on the mean but on the variance, so having an average passer rating of 105 with almost all games between 95-115 (high mean small variance) probably requires only ~150 passing attempts, but with high variance, like Tannehill currently has (he has a 78.8 and a 145.7 rating) it will require a lot more.

    So.. it depends. Anyway, we have the whole season to determine this so no need to rush to judgment. Just wait till at very minimum 150 attempts before suggesting the 2020 season rating has any real meaning.
     
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  18. xphinfanx

    xphinfanx Stay strong my friends.

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    3-0
    Great start for any team.
     
  19. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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  20. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    EPA lol
     
  21. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That's almost like saying "points -- lol."
     
  22. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I mean, was the expectation that he would never have a subpar game again? That seems silly.
     
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  23. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I don't know, was it?
     
  24. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Not mine. I don't think it was yours either, my point is let's see if he has more games like this one before we decide it's some drop off.
     
  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Where do you see someone saying it represents a drop-off?
     
  26. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    You said to expect more clunkers like this one. That is what I'm referencing. That would be a drop off if he puts up a meaningful number of them.
     
  27. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Patrick Mahomes, a former league MVP, had four such clunkers in 16 starts (25%) in 2019. Tannehill has had two in 13 starts (15%) with the Titans. I'm not saying expect more of them based on nothing -- I'm saying expect more of them because it's the norm in the league, and because of Tannehill's own history.

    Again, this is why for a meaningful number of career average QBs, 11 straight games at Tannehill's level in 2019 wasn't sustained. We don't know for sure what's going to happen here, but the smart money is on regression.
     
  28. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Sure I dont necessarily disagree, but there is a difference between a slight regression, year to year variance basically, and a large regression.

    I'm not sure which you're expecting.
     
  29. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I love when you help debunk your own arguments.

    YOUR WORDS
    So is your problem that Tennessee keeps using play action or that Minnesota bit on it all of the time.

    We have this one guy at work; below average technician that’s always calling of us for advice or guidance. Well as soon as he gets off the phone with one of us, he’ll turn right around and call someone else, fishing for someone to confirm what he wants to do is right...and never gets that affirmation.

    I’ve explained to you until I’m blue in the face Tennessee’s formula, smash mouth hard nosed running the football to set up play action pass. Tannehill has had good games thus far this Covid affected season. Henry has has good games thus far this covid affected season. The Tennessee Titans are 3-0, undefeated and yet you still have to try and tear Tannehill down. Your arguments are looking as dumb as a box of rocks.

    I’m sitting here watching the Sunday game and I guess I can say Brees sucks...his furthest “air pass” has been only 13 yards. All of these “yards” and TDS he has are a result of YAC and the receivers individual effort getting downfield and scoring.

    But because you like Brees, there’s a “legitimate” reason why Brees is still better than Tannehill Huh?

    Give it a rest, will ya? If we still had Tannehill and was running the offense we should have been...THIS offense, you be riding Tannehill’s jock because we would be winning but since we had wonderkid...who lost yet again today...and he screwed the entire Dolphins organization, you have to blame the player and not the architect.

    If you don’t like Tannehill winning play action then stop him. If you can’t stop him quit crying about it
     
  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Apparently not enough in either case. Tannehill’s passer rating was nearly 20 points below the 2020 league norm.
     
  31. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Passer rating doesn't mean squat. I keep trying to tell you time and time again football is a ***TEAM*** sport!! There was a quarterback yesterday that was 29 of 36, 288 yards and 3 TD's and a rating of 127.8. Based on your "stats are everything" methodology, that team should have won...but they as a ***TEAM*** lost!

    That's right, Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints with his great stats output LOST!!!

    I keep trying to tell you but it's like talking to a brick wall. Stats are useful...they are a tool but they are not the end all, be all. Brees would have traded a completion or 4....traded a touchdown pass...would have gladly swapped his passer rating for Tannehill's if it would have meant a win!
     
  32. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL is he back on passer rating? How convenient... he needed to ignore that last season.

    I told him at the end of last season to expect a passer rating in the 105 range for Tannehill. Pretty good estimate so far.
     
  33. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    This thread is about Ryan Tannehill, not the Tennessee Titans. Drew Brees played well yesterday. Ryan Tannehill didn't.
     
  34. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    First off, only RECENTLY was the title of the thread changed to reflect Ryan Tannehill only. If you recall correctly, the title of the thread was "Ryan Tannehill to start for Titans" and the discussion revolved around Tannehill in Miami vs Tannehill in Tennessee and the debates ensued, so please don't arrogantly state the thread is about Tannehill only...because it's not.

    Secondly, the "poorly played" Ryan Tannehill with the Tennessee Titans are 3-0. The well played Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints are now 1-2. While you're glued to your individual stats sheets, particularly focused on anything and everything you can to degrade Tannehill, we football people have always accepted that individual players' games will vary from time to time. While you are so obsessed with quarterback, quarterback, quarterback...you fail to see the trees for the forest.

    Tannehill and his measly season 105.8 passer rating...a WHOPPING 0.4% less than Brees' 106.2. The difference here is that one is undefeated thus far and one has only 1 win this season.

    You just HATE the fact a quarterback we had on our failing team goes on to success with another team. Instead of exercising common sense that our TEAM sucked that badly, you continue to stick to your guns that it just HAD to be Tannehill and he still sucks.

    Sorry dude, the Win/Loss record drowns out that tantrum.
     
  35. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The thread is about Tannehill's individual performance. If you disagree, that's fine.

    I suspect that if he were playing extremely well and the Titans were losing, you'd be singing a different tune.
     
  36. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    I honestly want to know the analytics beyond the completion percentage. Because completion percentage isn't the end-all for accuracy.
     
  37. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Hmmmm, kinda like he was in Miami....but the ***TEAM*** sucked? Yea, I sang that tune too...and folks like you tried to tell me the team was fine; Tannehill sucked.

    Tell you what, lets sing this tune, shall we?


    Tannehill is 12-4 since taking over as the starting quarterback.
    I told you all last season the Titans were going to make the playoffs...Check
    I told you all last season Tannehill was going to be the NFL Comeback Player of the Year...Check

    Instead of trying to actually expand your football knowledge you keep yourself buried in your stats sheets. You SHOULD be asking why didn't WE build a team around Tannehill...including coaching staff as well as players and analyzing THAT.
     
  38. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Certainly if the Dolphins would've landed a running back with the impact of Derrick Henry and called offensive plays with his impact in mind, it would've registered in Tannehill's performance and he would've likely stayed, if the Dolphins could've sustained that kind of environment around him. The odds of that were low, however, in that Derrick Henry-type players are very rare. In my opinion Tannehill's performance with the Titans is predominantly a function of Henry's impact, and I believe the data to date support that assertion.
     
  39. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Sure...but if you believe that Tannehill is at best an average QB, then the Titans should have been able to have almost anyone come in and be successful with Henry, and there would be no reason for them to have given Tannehill a pretty large contract.
     
  40. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Just took a look at ESPN's QBR for 2020- not that I believe there's an ounce of truth to it, but more so just out of curiosity at how accurate or inaccurate they appear for this season. They have Rodgers, Wilson and Mahommes as the top 3 with Josh Allen edging out Lamar Jackson for #'s 4 and 5. That top 5 looks about right to me.

    But who's at #6? The Bearded One himself with an 80.9 rating! Didn't he have a 3-pick game in week one? LOL! He was 6th in their "points contributed" stat though and 4th in "points from penalties", then around 8th-10th in everything else. I don't pretend to understand any of that....but he did beat out Drew Brees by a full point overall so I guess the formula likes him.

    Tannehill was 12th overall but 6th in EPA (expected points added), 5th in EPA passing, plus 6th in EPA sacks & penalties...although he was 14th in number of plays at 127 snaps (for comparison, Burrow leads that category with 182 snaps. Burrow is 23rd overall in QBR for those that are curious). RT's raw QBR was 8th, meaning they penalized him down 4 slots.

    How do you explain being top 6 in almost every category, efficient in # of snaps, but still end up being penalized overall? I have no earthly idea.

    Anyhoo, that's my recap on interesting BS stats that don't mean anything. The Bearded One is non-officially twice as good as Tannehill this season (#6 vs #12) despite our 1-2 record and RT having a natural QB rating 14.4 points higher (105.8 vs 91.4). LMAO!
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2020
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