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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    On that note, consider for example that Russell Wilson has leapfrogged Mahomes and Jackson to the top of the league with regard to Vegas league MVP odds, while Tannehill remains in the middle of the pack among QBs. If his greatness is so evident, why is nobody seeing it, betting on it, and changing the odds?
     
  2. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Here's the problem with sportswriters when it comes to the NFL...or any other sport for that matter. Everything comes down to popularity and celebrity anymore. Dan Marino, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes...celebrity! Did any of these quarterbacks ever do it all by themselves? To listen to some of you and a lot of these blow hard sportscasters/sportswriters, they all did. Who never gets mentioned?

    How about the Redskins who won 3 Super Bowls in 4 years with 3 different quarterbacks...Mark Rypien, Doug Williams & Joe Theisman? How about Phil Simms? Trent Dilfer? Joe Flacco? Hell, Jim Kelly who led the Bills to four consecutive Super Bowls? Not even the underwhelming Eli Manning who won not one, but two Super Bowls the Patriots? No, they aren't lighting up the scoreboard...or setting records for this stat or that stat so no, they aren't in that "elite" class, but they are elite! Those who won weren't supposed to win but they did.

    Being "elite" or "great" is in the eye of the beholder to a degree. You can be lighting up the stats sheets, but if you're home watching the playoffs or your elite-ness can't beat an underdog team in the playoffs, it doesn't mean squat.

    I will tell you that right now, as we speak I would bank on the Titans over any other team in the NFL right now, with possibly the exception of the Chiefs. In the Mahomes v Tannehill era, they are both 1-1. The Chiefs have a phenomenal TEAM. The Titans have a phenomenal TEAM. With those two though, it comes down to who executes their offensive scheme more efficiently. But because the Chief's offense is a very heavy passing team, Mahomes is going to get more celebrity than Tannehill...but don't think for a second that Tannehill doesn't execute the Titans' offense at an elite level.
     
  3. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    This year the Titans have beaten three teams with a combined record of 1-8 by a margin of 2 points per game.
     
  4. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Other NFL
     
  5. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Why are you trying to have an argument literally noone is making?

    I dont think anyone said he would win MVP thus year or is the greatest thing alive.

    They said he is a capable QB that can lead his team while playing well.
     
  6. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Not talking about sportswriters. I'm talking about GM's, HC's and scouts. Each year, a group of NFL insiders rank QB's into tiers. For example, in 2016, a group of 42 league insiders that consisted of 10 GM's, 5 HC's, 7 OC's, 5 DC's, 8 personnel evaluators, and 7 other position coaches/executives ranked QB's into tiers:
    https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/2016-nfl-qb-tier-rankings/story?id=41230629

    The tiers were:
    Tier 1: Can carry his team each week. Team wins because of him.
    Tier 2: Can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently.
    Tier 3: Legit starter but needs heavy run game/defense to win.
    Tier 4: Might not want this guy if starting all 16 games.
    Tier 5: Do not think this guy should be starting.

    EVERY year Tannehill was in Miami he never made it beyond Tier 3.

    All I'm saying is you're claiming your football knowledge is better than GM's, HC's and scouts.
     
  7. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You seem to prefer addressing my posts rather than the posts of others here:
    My point is that the Vegas odds say he's average. If he's "much, much more than just an average quarterback," why are his Vegas odds remaining squarely stationary at the average level?
     
  8. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    And that would be one reason why it makes sense to explore the effect of his run game on him in Tennessee. It's consistent with what people who really know football have said about him.
     
  9. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Buzz Lightyear calling Star Command...Buzz Lightyear calling Star Command...

    Oh, so fault Tannehill for the Dolphins making a great trade. Guess we fault Tunsil as well, huh? Gee I thought we credited the organization for all of the great deals we made in the offseason.

    Ah, the 6 game winning streak. Gee wasn't that the season that Ajayi rushed for an average of 4.9 yards per carry...3 games rushing over 200 yards? Hmmmmmm, Gee I can't remember...

    The Titans are 3-0. Tannehill has an average passer rating of 105 thus far...in a season that's affected all NFL teams with no preseason games and abbreviated training camps. If you think that's just "average" then you are indeed a silly man.

    In fact Tannehill performed better under Gase during the stretch of games noted above than he has this year in Tennessee, so it's certainly the wrong time to make this particular case.[/QUOTE]
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  10. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Let the Chiefs announce Patrick Mahomes is available in trade and watch what happens.

    Certainly, and that's consistent with what's happened in Tennessee -- an effective running back (Henry) who elevates his quarterback's performance while facilitating play-calling that makes the QB's job easier.

    105 is 0.56 standard deviations above the current league average. If you can make a case for how that's above the average range, let's hear it.
     
  11. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You keep saying 11 games...but that's not accurate. It's been what, 16 or more games since he took over as starter?
     
  12. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Since when do Vegas odds tell you how good or bad a QB is?

    Literally the last thing anyone would ever use analyzing a player.
     
    resnor likes this.
  13. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Again you seem to focus exclusively on me here, rather than the people I'm responding to:

    The fact that Tannehill's Vegas league MVP odds appear to be paralyzed at the average level is proof positive of the above statement, that "very few would grant Tannehill great or elite status right now." If the majority of people viewed Tannehill as great or elite, he'd be moving upward with regard to Vegas odds for league MVP, as Russell Wilson already has this year.

    Vegas odds are essentially a crowdsourcing proxy.
     
  14. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    We've based the difference in his performance between Miami and Tennessee on the regular season, consisting of 11 games last year. Those 11 games made him no different from Jim Harbaugh et al. -- 11 games at an elite level, amidst an otherwise average career.

    So far this year he's performing like Harbaugh et al. -- 11 regular season games at that level, followed by a return to the average level.

    This is the wrong time to be arguing for Tannehill's greatness. The people on his bandwagon here should be mute right about now, awaiting further data.
     
  15. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    These points are all non starters though. They rely on accepting Vegas or mass opinion as some objective way to discern individual talent.

    It was you who made the argument earlier in this thread that eyes are deceiving. If the majority of people Vegas is manipulating are not statisticians I dont see why you'd put so much emphasis into what they seem to think.
     
  16. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    *Cough* YOU have based it on that. Again, I'm going to go with all the data together that Tannehill has produced since taking over as starter. Further, like I've said several times, I'll be surprised if the average QB in the league is putting up 4500 yards, 30+ TDS, and 5 or fewer ints once the season ends. Only 5 QBs last season hit 4500 yards. Only 4 QBs last season hit 30 TDS. I don't have an easily sortable table to get lowest ints for QBs who started all 16 games, but it looks like only a handful there.

    So, your argument is now that QB play has skyrocketed from last year to this year. If true, and the year ends like it's started, how would you explain that? Do you think average QBs have elevated their play to the levels that only elite QBs hit last year? I mean that doesn't seem reasonable. So, maybe it has more to do with covid affecting teams, and the lack of preseason and training camp time.

    It just seems unreasonable, and probably an anomaly, that you're predicting that average QBs this season are playing like elite QBs have in previous years.
     
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  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I'm not predicting anything. I'm merely situating Tannehill's performance within the context of the present-day league. Whatever is causing the league to perform better so far this year with regard to passer rating is surely affecting Tannehill as well, no? Or is the entire league's performance benefiting from something while Tannehill somehow remains isolated from it?
     
  18. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Or it's been 3 weeks and you should slow your roll because whatever has happened through 3 games isnt likely to continue at the same rate....
     
    resnor likes this.
  19. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The Vegas odds aren't what I put the most stock in. They're simply the best way to determine the position of the vast majority of people. They have a particular application to Tannehill in this case because we're talking about a QB who had 11 good games out of nowhere, following six years of overall average performance. The Vegas odds are a great way in this case to determine that the vast majority of people -- and ones who have a monetary stake in the matter, to boot -- aren't sold on Tannehill's having become anything different than he was in Miami. If they were sold on that, his Vegas league MVP odds would've changed from the average level to something better.

    Russell Wilson just leapfrogged Mahomes and Jackson for the 2020 league MVP, in terms of Vegas odds, on the basis of a mere three games, while Tannehill's 11 games (or 14 of you count the playoffs) last year have done nothing to get him past the average level in that regard. Certainly his three games this year, in contrast to Wilson's, have done nothing for him in that regard either.
     
  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    And how do you know what continues for Tannehill won't follow the same pattern? Whatever is elevating the league's performance now will subside in due time, but Tannehill is somehow isolated from that? Everyone else's performance will deflate, but Tannehill's won't?

    Again you focus on me here almost exclusively. You have a guy here touting Tannehill as "much, much above average" when he's fallen back to the average level so far this year, and instead of focusing on him, you're talking to the guy with the realistic view of the matter at present.

    My roll needs to be slowed, but his roll is fine. :laughy:
     
  21. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Do you have severe reading comprehension issues when it comes to Ryan Tannehill?

    None of that is what I said. I'm going to make this fun. I'm going to the Titans board and asking them all to join this thread lol let's see what THEY think.
     
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  22. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You said this:

    So is whatever that's going to happen in the future that comprises "isn't likely to continue at the same rate" going to apply to Tannehill as well, or just the rest of the league? If it applies to Tannehill as well, and his level of performance remains unchanged, he'll be just as average in comparison to the rest of the league in the future as he is today, if and when whatever you think is going on league-wide ultimately subsides.
     
  23. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    You have no idea if this is true.

    You're fooling yourself if you think the people who create the rankings go into depth on film for each QB. Chris Simms admitted as much this offseason. He went back and looked at film of Tannehill in Miami and admitted he was wrong.

    PS. We are talking about the same group of people that thought Brady was no better than a 6th round pick. There are dozens of examples of this group failing at QB evaluation.

    Why is "great" off the table? IMO, it is just because you are committed to a position you held while he was in Miami. There is no doubt he was great last season. So, great certainly cannot be dismissed.
     
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  24. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    BTW, most of the QB rankings I have seen since the last quarter of last season have Tannehill ranked in the top 10. I call that great but not elite.

    For example:
    upload_2020-10-1_14-59-21.png
     
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  25. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Outside of some posters on these boards, where do you hear people proclaiming Tannehill is truly a "great" QB? I'm not talking about one year. I'm talking about him as QB independent of performance in one year here or there. You know, like Manning can have a terrible year but people think he's one of the best ever. I provided evidence of what HC's, GM's and others think, and they do NOT think he is "great" or "elite". Nor does any non-Miami fan I've ever met.

    Again, we're talking about career rankings, not rankings in a single year. There's no question 2019 was elite. There's also no question almost everyone does NOT talk about Tannehill as one of the great or elite QB's in the NFL. And top 10 is really top 1/3 in the league. I mean #16 is average so let's not get carried away with some "top 10" label that's impressive if there are 100 people competing, but not if there are 32 or so competing.

    Doesn't matter. TDK is still acting like he knows football better than GM's, HC's and scouts. That was my point. And you're fooling yourself if you think every one of those insiders never did in depth study on Tannehill, possibly as the QB they'd have to face next. They certainly know how to interpret film better, meaning them watching less tape is probably far more informative than some non-expert watching tons of tape.

    I never said it's impossible for him to end up "great" or "elite". Everything is probabilistic. But he'd have to be the 1st QB ever to transition from "average" statistically to sustained elite before that happens, at least from a pure statistical point of view. Point is the probabilities are extremely tiny.

    Finally, my views are about as independent of positions I've held previously as it gets. I mean I've stated precisely how I determine things so wherever the data goes that's where I go. I wouldn't say the same for you or other posters.
     
  26. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Who was closer to correct in 2019? The Titans didn't have a top defense and they weren't run heavy early in the run to the playoffs and Tannehill crushed the passing game...... IN... HIS....FIRST...CHANCE....OUTSIDE....OF....MIAMI....
     
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  27. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    2019 the stats got it wrong. So? The stats are right MOST of the time because they're based on historical data.

    Like I said before, we'll find out what happens next. If Tannehill is the first anomaly of this sort (sustained average to sustained elite) that will be dutifully acknowledged. But it's not a good bet by any means.
     
  28. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    This thread is what it is in large part because there are a handful of people who believed Tannehill was being held back by his surroundings in Miami, who are taking what happened in Tennessee in 2019 to represent a confirmation of that position, despite that it involves insufficient data with which to make that conclusion. People jumping the gun, in essence.

    Some of those people are in turn calling some people who don't share that view "biased," even though those people aren't yet making a conclusion!

    The issue here is that there needs to be a recognition of the three possible positions to take with regard to Tannehill at present:

    1) He's average.

    2) He's above-average and was being held down to average by his surroundings in Miami, and his performance in Tennessee confirms it.

    3) We can't yet determine which of the above two positions is correct.

    Some of the pro-Tannehill people here appear to believe that others of us (myself for one) are taking position #1, when in reality we're taking position #3.

    The irony there, of course, is that the failure to take position #3 at present indicates bias -- pro-Tannehill bias. Yet bias is what they are accusing others of.

    Sit back and relax and realize we don't yet know what this guy is. He could be Jim Harbaugh, or he could be Drew Brees. Nobody knows for certain yet.
     
  29. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    That’s a GREAT idea!!!!
     
  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    A far better idea would be to include a smattering of people who are fans of neither the Dolphins nor the Titans. I suspect you'd be shocked at how lukewarm the prevailing position is on Tannehill among those folks.
     
  31. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Right now there are two prevailing indications of bias among some of the Tannehill supporters with regard to "what the numbers mean."

    1) Tannehill's current passer rating is somehow something other than average.

    2) Tannehill's passer rating is average only because the league's average is so high, and somehow Tannehill is isolated from enjoying the temporary elevation in passer rating that every other QB in the league is enjoying.

    Chew on that for a minute, folks.
     
  32. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    First off, I never claimed to know football better than GMs, HCs or scouts. Don’t go putting words in my mouth. I do claim to know FOOTBALL better than folks that just look at stats sheets and think those numbers alone dictate a team’s success.

    Secondly, Tannehill would be the first to go from average to elite status? Then I guess the Chargers were absolute IDIOTS for taking away their “elite” quarterback in Drew Brees to New Orleans, huh? Brees was average at best, not because of his lack of passing talent but more because of Marty Schottenheimer’s style of football. Brees’ Talent’s were better used under Payton than Schottenheimer. But to the point, if you’re going to try and day Brees was elite in San Diego...
     
  33. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Okay, I'll agree with you I should have left off "what the numbers mean".

    As I have said in the past, you are the best stats guy on this site. I was trying to separate out when you were doing a "statistically analysis" and when you were simply expressing an opinion (in this case, how the rushing success, YPC, yards, etc. were related to the passing success, YPA, rating, etc.). I didn't do a good job of expressing it.

    In a nutshell, when talking about an actually analysis, I have no doubt that you do it without bias.

    Peace.
     
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  34. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Well.. his z-score is currently 0.55. That's top 70th percentile. It not that far above average, but it is clearly above average. If a QB over a career had a 0.55 z-score I'd say he's "above average", though not by a huge amount.
     
  35. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You implied it. You said explicitly that people "who truly know ***FOOTBALL***" know you're right that Tannehill is "great" or "elite". Well.. those HC's, GM's and scouts do NOT agree with you that Tannehill in Miami was great and the problem was all the HC. So yeah.. you implied that with your own words, which btw you repeatedly use.

    Chargers should not have let Brees go. But Brees had elite stats in at least one year with them (2004 where he came in #3 in passer rating). So while I agree with you that Brees flourished with Payton, he was NOT "average at best" with SD.
     
  36. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I know what you mean, but in my field we'd consider anything within one standard deviation either way "average range." I mean it can't be just the guys who are smack dab at the 50th percentile who are considered average. So if it goes beyond just them, where does the average range end?
     
  37. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Simple: when it becomes statistically significant. That's why I said over a career. If over a career of say 10-15 years you end up at 0.55 z-score you probably are in a statistically significant way "above average".
     
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  38. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    But, for instance, right now you have a guy from SF, Nick Mullins, who has a 95 rating. Do you really think he maintains that? I don't. So I'd really expect a bunch of movement from these guys but the end of the season.
     
  39. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Sure, and that's entirely possible. But is Tannehill isolated from that movement? The whole league is going to deflate but Tannehill will be immune to it?
     
  40. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    OK I agree with that. The issue with Tannehill here, however, is that we're talking about a passer rating so far this year that likely isn't significantly different from his season passer ratings in 2014 and 2016. So if the argument is that he's become a different QB because the situation in Miami is no longer suppressing his performance, it becomes harder to make that conclusion when he's putting up a season no different from some of the ones in Miami (if his current performance were to continue through this season).
     

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