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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    But the difference could have a significant confound if easy versus difficult conditions varies substantially among QBs. If QB X's season passer rating of 100 was accomplished 50% of the time under "garbage time" conditions, and QB Y's season passer rating of 100 was accomplished only 10% of the time under garbage time conditions, you have two different passer ratings, but they both read "100."

    Yeah see that's where the tradtional measures are impoverished. We need something that tells us how well the position was played, not just how well throws were made. If two QBs are under "difficult" conditions and one of them takes a sack that's his fault and the other throws an incomplete pass, the former's error was more harmful to his team, but only the latter's play will show up in traditional passing statistics, and there won't be any reflection of the difficulty of the situation.
     
  2. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah well saying passer rating or any other statistic isn't a perfect measure of QB ability (far from it) is easy. Suggesting an alternative that is both objective and addresses all the "what about this specific situation, etc." critiques is far more difficult. In any case, win probability shouldn't be used as a measure of difficulty. If anything that CPOE statistic makes more sense, but completion percentage is already in passer rating.

    So unless you have a demonstrably better approach, I think it's perfectly fine to use passer rating, and Brady ~ average in the last few years when you use passer rating.
     
  3. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I think the one offered by Yurko et al. is better for example. EPA and WPA combined. Wins above replacement. I'd be interested to see how QBs compare using that measure, but I can't find it anywhere.
     
  4. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Justin Herbert today: 20 for 25, 290 yards, 11.6 YPA, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 137.9 passer rating, 0.5 EPA per play. And that's a rookie in his fourth game.
     
  5. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    And?
     
  6. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Herbert was my guy I wanted us to take, dont remind me.
     
  7. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Week4.png

    What's interesting about that to me is that if Tua were starting and playing about as well as Herbert and Burrow, the Dolphins wouldn't be doing any better than Fitzpatrick at the quarterback position.
     
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  8. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    True, but given the fact that those guys are rookies and Fitz is a grizzled veteran, I'd word it differently.

    I'd say that we wouldnt be much, if any, worse off in the short term either.
     
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  9. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Three of our five offensive linemen are rookies. Now while I understand all you look at is quarterback, quarterback, quarterback...Herbert in Los Angeles isn't playing behind a rookie offensive line, in fact it's pretty much the same cohesive unit that was there last year.

    Our OL is coming together better than I thought it would with 3 rookies starting. If we can get a consistent running game out of the offense, Tua will be set up for success when he does get the nod. Gaskin only got 10 carries yesterday for 40 yards. Galiey had Fitz thorw the ball 45 times in a game that was close midway through the 4th quarter. STUPID!
     
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  10. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Keep in mind however that the run-pass imbalance was well beyond the general league norm only after the game became 24-15 with about five and a half minutes left in the game and the Seahawks' win probability was about 93%. Beyond that point there were 10 pass dropbacks and one run. Prior to that point the balance was 62% pass dropbacks.
     
  11. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Our receivers weren't getting separation at all...Fitz was throwing into ultra-tight windows over and over again. I mean, you hardly ever saw someone actually open and that's a massive problem in itself.

    Anyway, it's not just the QB since we're asking the Bearded One to do a heck of a lot with very little.
     
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  12. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Man this is crazy. There are 13 starting QB's right now with passer ratings of 100+ lol. League average is 96.5, staying steady now after 4 weeks. It's really suggesting this is going to continue the rest of the year.
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/passing.htm

    It used to be that a 100 rating was special. I actually miss those days. Even until 2017 you'd only have 5 or so starting QB's with 100+ ratings at the end of the year. Then in both 2018 and 2019 you had 9 all of a sudden. And now we're getting to the point where "average" means you just missed out on 100 (that honor right now belongs to Brady btw lol).

    Anyway, just something to keep track of as the weeks go by. I don't know if the NFL thinks having even less defense will attract more viewers, but I doubt it. I think it's gone too far.
     
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  13. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    What do you think is the cause? Last season, we only had what, 5 QBs finish that high? It seems odd that this is holding steady right now.
     
  14. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    This year it's lack of crowd noise most likely. Announcers were saying QB's were now whispering in the huddle. So coordination is better. But it can't be entirely that either because defensive PI is up. That's a ref thing. It looks like at least for that stat the league itself is suggesting to refs that they prioritize the offense, and the same might be true with offensive holding which is down (other penalties such as false starts etc. being down probably is lack of crowd noise).

    But that's just this year. No way you have this kind of sustained and steady increase without the league itself being behind it. It's either introducing new rules (happens less often) or interpreting rules already on the books differently (seems to happen almost every year). So with the exception of COVID-19 which is hopefully just one year, this is the league doing it.

    Oh, and in both 2018 and 2019 there were 9 that finished that high. It's only up to 2017 that you could expect 5 QB's with 100+ ratings. So there's a clear trend even without COVID-19.
     
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2020
    resnor likes this.
  15. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yes that's right, 9. There were only 4 that went 30+ TDS...that's what I was thinking of.

    So we have 4 more guys throwing over 100, with the average climbing pretty dramatically. Would make sense that the lack of noise benefits the offense more.
     
  16. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Likewise there are currently four QBs with EPA per play above 0.4 (Wilson, Rodgers, Mahomes, and Allen). Last year there was no one with EPA per play above 0.4, only one QB with EPA per play above 0.3 (Mahomes), and his was 0.33. Last year five QBs had EPA per play between 0.2 and 0.29. This year nine QBs have EPA per play between 0.2 and 0.29.
     
  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The worst part of the above is that it appears that one of these outlandish QBs (Allen) has taken up residence in the Dolphins' division and made it harder for them to excel. Brady leaves, and Allen takes over.
     
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  18. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I'm not convinced Allen has turned the corner. Worth keeping track of him because I don't see elite talent in that guy. He might end up above average if on a good team, but I can easily see this being a hot streak that won't continue.
     
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  19. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I think part of that is no pre-season/shortened training camps and defenses usually have that time to dial in faster than the offense. Since that didn't happen this season, the offenses are surging (for now). If I was a betting man, I'd wager that the trend starts fading around mid-season and disappears by week 17.

    Something there made me chuckle- on an old forum, one of my best buddies was named Dolphin North (he's way up in Northern Canada). At least once a week I'd start a sentence with, "I'll bet North's car that Miami...." Then he'd yell at me saying, "Why the heck wouldn't you bet your own car?!?" and I'd reply, "Because I'm not that positive that I'm right!"

    So this is one of those "Dolphin North" moments...I'd gladly bet his car that I'm right on this one. And for the record, I have no idea what kind of car you may be winning if I'm wrong.
     
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  20. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I like this type of bet. I'll bet you Dolphin North's house that the trend doesn't fade and that we end this year with
    1) record high average passer rating, and
    2) highest passer rating standard deviation since the 1978 rule change.

    Either way, Dolphin North is losing something. But yeah, how this ends up will be a good test of the most likely causes.
     
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  21. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    What's interesting about this year as well is that all of the rating systems for QBs (passer rating, EPA per play, EPA per play & CPOE composite, DVOA, QBR) have Wilson, Mahomes, Rodgers, and Allen as the top four QBs in the league right now. That's an awful lot of agreement.
     
  22. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    LMAO, well played sir. I'll inform North that it's going to be a rough winter for his family up there.
     
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  23. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Well.. this KC vs. NE game certainly answers one question that was often posed: would almost any QB look good with Belichick and NE's surrounding cast? Answer is clearly no. Both Hoyer and Stidham look pretty incompetent.

    We'll see if there's any improvement next week since Newton might still not play. And Newton hasn't been much better compared to the last few years. You don't really see a Belichick bump.

    Hopefully all this translates to NE's first 9-7 or worse season. I'm totally fine with Buffalo taking over top dog status in this division after 2 decades of NE domination. At least with Buffalo you can always laugh at them losing 4 SB in a row!
     
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  24. xphinfanx

    xphinfanx Stay strong my friends.

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    Agree New England looked bad tonight.
     
  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The best explanation for the New England dynasty is not an either-or, but a both. No team could possibly play that well for that long without both an elite head coach and an elite quarterback. We don’t have to pick one or the other.
     
  26. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    With NE that probably true, but there is another team that had a comparable dynasty: SF from 1981-1998, which coincided precisely with Montana and Young's reign. They won 5 SB's and made the playoffs in 16 out of 18 years.

    Clearly they had the elite QB's (in fact those are the top two in NFL history by efficiency), and they had Bill Walsh as coach for the first 8 years, but in the next 8 years they had George Seifert as HC, who then went to Carolina and compiled a 8-8, 7-9 and 1-15 record and got fired. He was even the de facto GM at Carolina.

    So is that really true that you need an elite HC too? I think for the 2nd half of SF's reign it was mostly elite personnel. Those teams were stacked, and I suppose it's not as difficult to just continue what Walsh created than build something on your own, like both Walsh and Belichick did.
     
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  27. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Same thing with Dallas and Barry Switzer.
     
  28. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah, I mean Montana was a great in the Walsh system, and Steve Young is arguably GOAT. Add in the other pieces, like Rice, arguably GOAT (not my GOAT after admitting to cheating), And good backs, defense, etc... There was a reason that they fell off pretty significantly after Young and the rest of that dynasty was gone.
     
  29. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I suspect the most active ingredient in any dynasty is an exceptionally strong winning team culture, and that's generated by both the coaching staff and the players. I suspect the reason we see these dynasties continue after coaching changes to perhaps weaker head coaches is because the talent persists and the team culture is maintained by the leadership among the players. The culture essentially gets the less talented players on the roster -- who are unavoidable to have because the entire roster can't be great -- to elevate their game to a level at which they wouldn't otherwise play.
     
  30. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    See, I don't quite agree with you and here's why. Think of Steve Young if you will as the Aaron Rodgers of that time frame. San Francisco acquired Young from the Buccaneers and he sat behind Joe Montana for 4 years, substituting when Montana was injured but still, behind Montana. Additionally, Bill Walsh (who coached with the LEGENDARY Paul Brown in Cincinnati) was Young's head coach for 2 years before George Seifert took over. And to add on to that, Seifert had been with Bill Walsh since 1980 from their days at Stanford.

    The point? Bill Walsh built that team from the ground up and was able to maintain incredible continuity! George Seifert inherited what Walsh had built. Seifert didn't make the West Coast Offense. He was a defensive coordinator. Walsh built that offense along with Mike Holmgren and all Seifert had to do was keep running the same offense. And after Holmgren left to take the job at Green Bay, the 49ers hired Mike Shannahan, the Denver Bronco's OC from John Elway's early rise to greatness to replace Holmgren. Shannahan's offense took advantage of the scrambling quarterback Young was (ala Elway) and propelled the 49ers to the Super Bowl.

    So why guys like you tout personnel, I attribute their success to the great coaches that made them great.
     
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  31. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    What's your argument for Seifert being a great coach? He failed in Carolina when given near total control, and you just agreed with me that all he was doing in SF was continuing what Walsh created.

    And if Seifert isn't a great coach, then you can't credit near 8 years of continuous success in SF to a coach that's no longer there (Walsh). That leaves personnel, and there's no question those SF teams were stacked talent wise in this pre-salary cap era. Player talent, especially when it's across the board, has a HUGE effect on win%.
     
  32. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Carmen Policy and Eddie Debartalo.

    Oh and if its just great personnel and elite quarterbacking, how is it Seifert won...and lost with Steve Young...and Steve Marrucci won...and lost with Steve Young?
     
  33. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Far too removed from the actual football played on the field. The owner and business executives may help pick the HC and GM, but it's the HC and GM that builds the team. Besides, Carmen Policy was also the President and CEO of the Browns from 1998-2004 in one of the least successful tenures you'll find. This really suggests that finding that great HC or GM is in good part luck not skill (unless you're maybe Pittsburgh which just seems to have hit after hit).

    ?? As long as Steve Young was there that team was dominant. The moment he left they collapsed, going from a perennial 12-win team to a 4-win team. Pretty clear it was the player not the HC for both Seifert and Mariucci (Seifert when he left for Carolina and Mariucci when Steve Young retired)
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sfo/index.htm
     
  34. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    The Rice cheating thing is conflicting to me.

    WR was my position growing up. I understand doing anything to make that ball stick to your hands. Hell I used to wash them with certain soaps that left them kind of "sticky" before games but obviously not stick em level. It's not that I couldnt catch either, it's just wanting that one little advantage to make a play.

    I think youd be hard pressed to find a WR in that era who didnt cheat once or twice or always in some way.
     
  35. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    You better look again about Young
     
  36. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    What do you mean? Did Young follow Seifert over to Carolina? No. So you're wrong about Seifert losing with Steve Young. Seifert only had 10-14 win seasons with Young.

    Did Mariucci have a losing season after Young was 2-1 in 1999, ending the year 4-12? Yes, so you're also wrong about Mariucci too. Both HC's started losing (or in Seifert's case went 8-8 before losing) once they didn't have Young, though Mariucci did have 2 good seasons with SF later on. But clearly, the fall-off in win% was evident without Young.
     
  37. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Sure I get trying to have a competitive advantage. But using stickum is something else.

    For me, you wanna be GOAT? Don't be a cheater.
     
  38. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I'm pretty sure most receivers used it around that time to some degree though. When I heard it about it, it really wasnt all that shocking to me personally.

    I dont think it's okay but at the same time I dont think he did anything that everyone else wasnt.
     
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  39. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I mis-read something so I was wrong about Seifert losing with Young, but my assertion about the organization still stands. Carmen Policy was not only the President and CEO of the 49ers, he was the team's general manager. He was the one, along with Eddie DeBartalo and Bill Walsh built the team...which included Seifert as DC...so when Walsh departed and Seifert was promoted, the organization essentially remained intact.

    How many flipping times have we as Dolphins fans ripped into Wayne Huizenga and then Stephen Ross for their poor decisions at the top? Randy Mueller, Jeff Spielman, Bill Ireland et al...general managers that were doing a horrible job at getting the right coach, getting the right players. There's even been bickering about Chris Grier. That didn't exist in San Francisco. Your team is only going to be as good as the top organization is. If you don't believe me, look at the Cowboys. Even Jerry Jones said he would fire himself.
     
  40. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Point is, it wasn't Seifert. It was the personnel that Carmen helped assemble. Player talent is the only thing that explains the 2nd half of that 49ers dynasty because Seifert wasn't a great HC.
     

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