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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Other people's understandings of Tannehill's functioning may be consistent with the above, but mine is quite different from it.

    Tannehill's primary weakness is passing the ball in situations in which opposing defenses are expecting the pass, because it puts front and center his biggest weakness of awareness and evasion of the pass rush. He has a high degree of arm talent -- otherwise he wouldn't have been a high first-round pick -- but the portion of the QB position that's played "behind the line of scrimmage" so to speak -- i.e., awareness and evasion of the pass rush -- he is exceptionally poor at. And I mean exceptionally poor, as in worse than the average college quarterback.

    There are only two solutions offensively for the above weakness: 1) have one of the best offensive lines in the league, which can protect the QB sufficiently even though defenses are expecting the pass and rushing him accordingly, and/or 2) have a run game that's highly effective and which allows the QB to pass the ball selectively, and with low frequency, against defenses that are defending primarily against the run game, thus allowing the QB far greater comfort "behind the line of scrimmage."

    He's had one of the best offensive lines in the league neither with Miami nor with Tennessee, as would be expected, as teams are unlikely to feature one of the best offensive lines in the league. What he has had in both places -- at times -- is a run game that drove the offense and which allowed him to pass the ball selectively, and with low frequency, against teams defending primarily against the run game. He's played significantly better at those times.

    Again this is why we'll learn a great deal more about Tannehill this year if and when the Titans' EPA per run play persists at its currently mediocre (or worse) level. The Titans won't be able to feature the run game and win under those conditions, and the situation for Tannehill noted above won't continue. He'll have to get in the driver's seat of the offense under those conditions, rather than being a very comfortable "passenger" alongside Derrick Henry.
     
  2. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Just to stir the pot...because it seemed to pop up out of the blue...

    On FOX NFL Sunday; interview between Terry Bradshaw and Ben Roethlistburger...

    "You know how it is to play when you have a great defense, our defense has played really well right now and they're one of the big reasons I came back, because when you have a good defense, it really makes your job a lot easier"

    Now, did Roethlistburger say defense wins championships? No he didn't say that at all but, when you have an assertion like that made by a 2 time Super Bowl winning quarterback who in his own right has Hall of Fame credentials...along with so many other PLAYERS who assert that defense wins championships, well...you can toss your stat sheet out of the window.

    These are guys who KNOW the game. These are guys who PLAY the game. These are guys who live, breathe, eat and sleep football. Sooner or later, you have to take their opinion into account because well, they get paid to be professionals in this game. We merely get paid in "likes" from other posters.
     
    The Guy likes this.
  3. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Look at post 10,263 (above on this page). In that post I've acknowledged the importance of the defense. How well teams defend against the pass in the present-day NFL is of paramount importance. An extremely poor pass defense (as is outlined in that post) can take extremely good performance by the quarterback (Drew Brees) and make it result in no better than a sub-.500 season record.

    But again, even then, we're back to the importance of quarterbacking -- either doing it or defending against it. This is why these guys get paid so much.
     
  4. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    This isn't stirring up the pot at all. As you point out Roethlisberger didn't even suggest "defense wins championships", and nothing he said is inconsistent with the stats. I mean, how is it "stirring up the pot" to say a good defense helps??

    So it's clear, the stats say this: for a SB winner (from 1970-2017), the average z-score on offense in the regular season is 1.2029 (88.55th percentile) and for defense it's 1.1672 (87.84th percentile). That right there shows that BOTH offense and defense tend to be well above average for a SB winner. It also shows that offense is about 3% more important than defense, at least in the regular season for the SB winner.

    It's a much different story in the SB itself where the average z-score for points scored by the winner (from 1966-2017.. haven't updated to 2019 yet) is 0.94 while for points allowed it's 0.4. So in the championship game itself, it's generally the case that offense is WAY more important, though both sides of the ball tend to be better than average.

    I will add something though: this was different before 1978 where it was more often the case that defense was more important in the championship game, and sometimes I feel like you're stuck in the pre-1978 era because a lot of things you say would be accurate back then but are simply inaccurate today, or across NFL history as a whole.

    In any case, for a claim like "defense wins championships" you can almost directly test this with z-scores for points scored/allowed because those are very good measures of how good offenses and defenses are. So when you can test a claim that well, it's best to go with the stats even if you hear some player saying something different (which wasn't the case here).
     
    The Guy likes this.
  5. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    According to EPA per play and CPOE, Ryan Tannehill is now playing almost exactly as well as Ryan Fitzpatrick:

    Week5.png
     
  6. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    As usual, you take a grain of truth and exaggerate it to an extreme. I agree that Tannehill's biggest weakness is improvising when a play breaks down. I don't agree that it is as big a weakness as you suggest and I certainly don't agree that he was a "passenger" in the offense.

    Your argument that the running game allowed Tannehill to make easier passes has been thoroughly debunked multiple times. Through three games this season, the run game has been pedestrian, at best. They have won all three games.

    The fact remains that Tannehill has played far better than you expected and you have spent a year trying to explain it away. You have convinced nobody in that year, but Tannehill has made quite a few converts.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2020
    PhinFan1968 likes this.
  7. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    By 2 points per game, against teams with a combined record of 3-11.

    Stay tuned.
     
  8. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    LMAO!!!! I guess the teams in the playoffs last season had a combined record of 3-11 as well, huh?
     
  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You'll have to explain that one. You lost me.
     
  10. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Well, it seems you're degrading the Titans victories thus far this season due to their wins over teams with losing records. Its not their fault the teams they've played suck, but the Titans have proven they can win against teams with winning records as well. Tying your previous post to your playoffs poll question, the Dolphins have yet to prove they can beat a team with a winning record.
     
  11. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    No it's not their fault, but again, they've beaten those teams by 2 points a game, which is their fault. If they had steamrolled those teams we'd be talking about something different here.

    Cue up the refrain of "a win is a win." Yeah, in the standings, but when we're talking about how strong teams are and how likely they are to win, how they win matters. In terms of who they've played and how they've won, the Titans aren't looking good so far this year.

    In fact when you consider strength of schedule, with the Dolphins having the 10th-strongest in the league and the Titans having the 27th-strongest, you could make a solid argument based on the statistics below that the Dolphins have been a better team than the Titans this year.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2020
  12. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL at looking at strength of schedule 3 games in...
     
  13. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You're the one who brought up their 3-0 record. You go ahead and make sense of it then.
     
  14. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Chart seems to show the Titans issues are on defense.
     
  15. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    ...which affects Tannehill because it affects run-pass ratio. The far bigger effect on him, however, is the plummeting of their EPA per run play from last year. Their run-pass ratio won't be tenable in terms of winning against better teams if their current EPA per run play continues.

    Anything that puts Tannehill in the driver's seat of the offense in terms of passing frequency makes 2020 fundamentally different from 2019 for him. That kind of effect can come from the defense and/or the run game.
     
  16. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah, I mean, two of those games the titans scored 30 or more points. When you talk about winning by 2 points, it only tells a very small part of the story.
     
    The_Dark_Knight likes this.
  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    No, it tells a story of their defense, which again is problematic because it affects run-pass ratio. If your defense is surrendering high numbers of points to bad teams and your EPA per run play has been only mediocre against those teams, good luck winning by running the ball as much as the Titans do when playing good teams.

    Tannehill will have to get in the driver's seat in those games if this continues. He's not comfortable there.

    Again the question is whether what they did in 2019 is sustainable.
     
  18. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Whatever. They've put up 30 or more points. If you're expecting a quarterback to consistently score 30 or more points and win shoot outs consistently, you're probably going to be disappointed.
     
  19. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Tennessee has scored 26.7 points per game, 14th in the league and a mere 0.18 standard deviations above the league average of 25.3.

    They've been mediocre offensively, and against bad teams.

    Again, stay tuned.
     
  20. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL.... they scored more against the Vikings than Seattle did.....
     
  21. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Tannehill is 9th in passer rating at 105. But, he is a “problem “.... LOL. I put him back on ignore. No useful information in a year.
     
  22. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    And they scored 12 fewer points against 1-4 Denver than the 0-5 Jets did.

    This is why we use z-scores.

    They've been mediocre offensively. We'll see what happens from here on out.
     
  23. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    And their kicker missed 3 FGs and an extra point in week one.
     
    resnor likes this.
  24. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Dude. You continuously reframe reality with stats to fit your narrative. Two out of three games, they've scored 30 or more points.

    The fact that the games were close is an indictment of the defense. Plus since the run game hasn't been good, it's more props to Tannehill for keeping the offense going.
     
  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Where have you seen me say anything negative about Tannehill in 2020? I’ve simply said that their pattern of play stands to put him in an uncomfortable position against teams better than the ones they’ve played. Stand by for his deterioration if that continues.
     
  26. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I didn't say anything about Tannehill. I simply said you reframe reality with stats. Tannehill is putting up points without a dominant running game. Like I said, if you're expecting any QB to go out and win shoot outs of 30+ points week in and week out, without run support, you are having to the wrong tree. I'd expect any QB to have deterioration in that situation.
     
  27. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah you're creating a strawman there. Nobody said anything about "shootouts of 30+ points week in week out, without run support."

    What I'm talking about here is having a level of passing volume in the normal range in the league, to compensate for the much lower EPA per run play they're getting and remain competitive against good teams. That would stand in contrast to Tannehill's extremely low passing volume in 2019.

    It's under those normal conditions that Tannehill will deteriorate. Nobody said anything about weekly shootouts with no run support.

    What Tannehill depends on here is an extremely low passing volume, accompanied by dominant run game. Change those two variables -- even into just the average range -- and you'll have a different guy.
     
  28. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Oh the irony....

     
  29. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You're talking about 3 games, two of which were 30 point shootouts, and you're drawing conclusions about Tannehill...but telling me that I'm making strawmen? Yes, if Tannehill gets no defensive help, and gets no real run support, he probably will deteriorate...like any QB.
     
  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I'm making the conclusions based on last year and previously in his career, when he played with extremely low passing volume and alongside a dominant running back, and his elevated performance was a function of both. Put those variables in their normal ranges and his performance will very likely decline.

    Again the issue is whether 2019 is sustainable. It isn't easy to win the NFL when your run-pass balance is tilted so strongly in favor of the run game. You need a dominant, workhorse RB who can sustain that level of performance and/or a stifling defense, and right now the Titans have neither.

    As Tannehill gets more into the driver's seat of the offense -- again at a league normal level -- his performance will decline, and that wouldn't happen for all QBs.
     
  31. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You can't possibly say that with certainty, if the defense is allowing 30 point shootouts. It's not simply about shouldering more of the load.

    Again, it's not all about the QB.
     
  32. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    If we are saying Tannehill will likely not put up 30 every game against strong defenses I'd agree, if that is the definition of "regression".

    If the team is only better offensively I dont see that happening unless the Titans defense is putting them in massive holes. It's not like you entirely abandon the run early down by a TD or two. It's when it gets later and that sort of lead is maintained that you stray away.
     
  33. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah that isn't it. That's a strawman. The issue is whether variables that were at an extreme in 2019 -- passing volume and run game performance -- are sustainable at those extreme levels.

    Again, if passing volume goes from extremely low to simply normal, and run game performance goes from extremely good to simply normal (as it already has), Tannehill will be missing two key ingredients from his individual performance in 2019.

    Again the issue is whether his 2019 performance is sustainable. The fact that it hinged on variables that were at an extreme makes it unlikely. And we're starting to see those variables change already.
     
  34. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Regardless of what else it may be about, the fact that it would change run-pass balance is what's relevant to Tannehill's performance. It could affect 15 different things and if run-pass balance is one of them, that's all that's needed in this context.

    No it isn't. But we aren't talking about team performance here. We're talking about what Tannehill needs to replicate his individual performance. And he needs certain team variables to function at an extreme for that to happen, which isn't likely.

    Now you all get to see what I've been talking about for the past year here, when these variables Tannehill's performance is hinging on start to change. Now you can start to see these effects I've been talking about in action.
     
  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I can't wait until after the next game, if Tannehill "struggles", and people start chirping. So here is a tidbit for you stat guys.

    "If Brown is unable to go and Davis and Humphries aren't cleared to return, the Titans' starting receivers could be Kalif Raymond and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine -- neither of whom has started an NFL game."

    Even if those other guys are cleared, they shouldn't be expected to perform at top form, as they've been under covid protocol.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  36. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah well, if we're talking about stuff like this in the evaluation of a QB's ability, certainly the QB's ability hasn't been firmly established.

    Imagine talking about Aaron Rodgers's ability as a function of stuff like this. Wouldn't happen.
     
  37. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    We're talking about this type of stuff in regards to stats. Stats don't tell who the QB is throwing to, etc. You keep pointing to his rating being lower as evidence that he's not playing as well. I would absolutely factor in Rodgers receivers as a factor if his rating was lower, and he was throwing to receivers who had never been able to crack the starting lineup.

    Have you watched even one Titans game this season?
     
  38. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    So what point are you making, and what objective evidence supports it?
     
  39. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    The point was clear. You tried to twist it. You've been harping on number of throws, run game support, etc for months now. I was simply pointing out, fort the next game, Tannehill may be without any of his starting receivers.
     
  40. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    There is no single game that's going to mean a whole lot here. I'm not focusing on just one game. I'm emphasizing the relationship between his performance and the run game over the course of the season, as I did with the 2019 season.
     

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