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Are the Dolphins a Playoff Team?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by The Guy, Oct 12, 2020.

Will the Dolphins make the playoffs?

  1. Yes

    43.9%
  2. No

    56.1%
  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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  2. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    Right now, this has become a very interesting question.

    If you look at the teams we have beaten -
    Jags - bad
    Niners - we got them when they were banged up
    Jets - historically bad

    All three of those teams for one reason or another were really bad when we played them. That being said, we looked significantly better than them. The difference between Gase and Philbin compared to Flores is night and day. When Flores wins, he truly wins. We look like the better team from whistle to whistle. Especially when we won with Gase, I would catch myself thinking, "We got lucky. This game could have easily gone the other way."

    I do think the first two weeks were an adjustment period for Flores. Getting Jones back really helped solidify the defense. I think if we played the Patriots again, we would win. Honestly, our defense looks better each week.

    On the other hand our offense is very hit or miss. After any given Sunday, I could see us putting up 40 points or having a "Tua Time" post.

    I think our upcoming game versus the Rams coming off the bye should be a really good indicator of the current state of the team. The Rams are a good team with lots of talent, but they are not elite. Beating them is certainly possible, and if we really wanna talk about being a playoff team, they are team that we should be able to compete with.
     
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  3. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Agreed on LAR. Really hard to tell how good this team is but this is the NFL and when you whip up on two teams, it means something.

    I was looking at our next 6 games:
    LAR, Arizona, LAC, Denver, NYJ, Cincy

    I think it’s very realistic to think we could come out of that 4-2 or at the very least, 3-3.
     
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  4. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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  5. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    After last night's games the Dolphins are now in the second-highest tier occupied by teams this year:

    Week6.png
     
  6. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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  7. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I look at it this way. The Dolphins would need to go 5-1 over the next six games to give themselves a shot. Is that insane? Maybe not, but its very unlikely.

    But even if they were to do that, and were 8-4 headed into the final month of the season, then they have to host KC and NE, and travel to Vegas and Buffalo. That would be setting themselves up for a very familiar feeling as a Dolphins fan as they come up short at the end to miss the postseason.

    But personally, I still think that we end up about 6-10. If we go into that final month at 6-6, I'll see the season as pretty successful.
     
  8. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Two weeks ago I would've whole-heartedly agreed however I think we're going to see an easier December than it first appeared. It's easy to fear those December match-ups but the reality is we could (and probably should) come out of that 2-2 pretty easily if we're playing well. And quite frankly, we ought to get a bunch of wins in November to make a loss or two late in the year tolerable.

    But looking at December...

    The Chiefs are not perfect. Teams that score points can beat them. The challenge is scoring points to hang in the game. A lot of teams simply can't do that. The question there is going to be whether Miami can use it weapons to post 30-points. Ditto on the Raiders and while the Raiders beat the Chiefs, I'm still more scared of the Chiefs. If Miami is truly "good" they ought to be able to beat one of those opponents.

    The Patriots and Bills are divisional opponents so we should be able to play them tough. Both got the better of us early but both are regressing and will be beatable late in the season (moreso NE). It's not unfathomable that if Miami continues to play well they actually beat both NE and BUF.

    We know the Dolphins under Flores are a team that's going to get stronger over time. I would welcome a NE or BUF match-up right now TBH. In December, we might very well be the favorite!
     
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  9. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree with this take. It's good to be conservative and recognize how bad the teams are we've beaten.

    That said, I think things are moving very quickly this year and I expect the offense to improve with Tua. I think the so-called "magic" of Ryan Fitzpatrick is very over-rated. To my eyes, he's only really had 1 great game (vs. Jax). His play this year is pretty underwhelming a lot of the time.

    With a improved QB play I think there's plenty of reason to think Miami's offense will match the competence of it's defense and we'll start feeling better about our chances against stronger competition.
     
  10. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    I see 5-1 there.
     
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  11. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I love your optimism. Those first 4 games could go either way so I’m trying to be realistic. 3-3 is tolerable, 4-2 would be ideal and 5-1 would exceed all expectations.
     
  12. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    The Chargers game just got very interesting..

    I think Miami likely loses to the Rams or AZ.. Arizona is not that great but Murray running wild could kill them.

    Honestly, all 6 of those games are winnable presuming our secondary stays intact and that Tua gives us a similar level of play relative to Fitz.
     
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  13. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Boy that's quite a take. Tua would have to buck the trend for rookie QBs for that to happen.
     
  14. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Eh, not really. It's more about the guy he's replacing. If you think Fitzpatrick has played well, that's fine. I don't. I think keeping him as the starter over the next couple weeks would lead to a situation where his lack of performance started frustrating people. Better to start Tua now while everyone's happy than wait until folks are screaming about Fitzpatrick not playing well enough.

    Keep in mind that Fitzpatrick's 7 INTs extrapolates to 19 on the season. And we just saw him play terribly against the Jets D who had been giving up an average of 32 points per game. And Fitzpatrick couldn't get us a first down.

    I'm telling you, beat-downs are great and I love them as much as the next guy but the other shoe was about to drop with Fitzpatrick as the starter. His attitude is perfect. His performance ain't.
     
  15. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I think Fitzpatrick has been between average and above-average. But the odds are that Tua doesn't play at that level this season. He's more likely to play at the level you're projecting Fitzpatrick would have regressed to.
     
  16. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I can understand lots of people wanting to see Tua play but, I think they are messing with the chemistry in the locker room. Tua may be more accurate and a better QB on paper but, I can't see him being the emotional leader that Fitz was. Fitz was out there playing like a kid, enjoying himself, putting his body on the line, blocking for the RB, the other players were feeding off that energy. Can anybody imagine Tua blocking for an RB?
    In the end, it might be considered a successful season for Tua like, Burrow is playing great, Bengals 1-4-1 and Herbert is also playing great, Chargers 1-4.
    I'm disappointed because I was rooting for the old guy to have his Cinderella ending.
     
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  17. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    The love fest for at best an average quarterback here and in the media is just crazy.

    Take away the beard and goofy personality does anyone really care?
     
  18. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I think this is a good point, but I also think there could be an effect where the young players step up in support of a rookie QB, and there is sort of a coalescing of effort that generates leadership on a young team that needs it. They can't be led by a savvy veteran QB forever, not when he's not long for this team.
     
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2020
  19. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    But you can't take that away. Those are part of the reasons the fans and his fellow players love him.
     
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  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Based on this, the Dolphins play only two teams with relatively poor pass defenses during the remaining 10 games of the season -- Buffalo and the Jets -- which is noteworthy with regard to starting a rookie QB:

    Defense.png
     
  21. Patster1969

    Patster1969 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'd rather Tua not block for the running back - how much blocking did Dan do, Joe Montana, etc? There's a difference between getting in the way and throwing your body around.
     
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  22. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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  23. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    That seems correct and fair. The Ravens or Steelers are absolutely getting one of the three wild card spots. Leaving two to be fought over by the Raiders, Browns, and Patriots, with the Colts, Broncos and Dolphins lingering on the outside.
     
  24. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    I agree with your assessment on Fitz. It has been turbulent at best.

    I think that there is going to be a learning curve with Tua, but I think that the hope is that by the end of the season, he finds his groove, and we get consistency at the QB position.
     
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  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Dolphins have the best 3rd down defense in the league this year:

    3rd.png
     
  26. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I mean, Fitz had 3tds and 0 ints at one point in that game. He took that helmet to helmet hit, the drive stalled, then he threw two picks and no more TDS in the game.
     
  27. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: Oct 24, 2020
  28. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    He wasn't playing as well as his stats looked at that point, though. Almost all of his success was easy dump offs to the RBs and short passes into the end zone. Honestly, while I don't want to bang on Fitz too much because he's generally played smarter football than he usually does, his success passing the ball in the intermediate areas to Parker, Williams, Gesicki and Ford isn't on par with where it was during the second half of last season.
     
  29. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I mean, I was pretty happy watching him in the first half of that game.
     
  30. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    upload_2020-10-26_0-13-44.png

    After tonight's performances both the Broncos and Patriots are looking very weak.
    The Bengals are fighting but struggling.
    The Chargers offense can play but the defense is struggling.
    The Raiders look like they should be better than they are.

    Now, we have Tua starting, so it's hard to say whether we're going to be the same team from the first half of the season.
    However, the Dolphins did say they're starting to move from 'hoping to win' to 'expecting to win', so, let's just assume for now that we are, I think we can look at:

    I think all these games are winnable except the Chiefs game. However, odds are against winning 8 of 9 games, so...

    Rams - L
    Cardinals - W
    Chargers - L (and the 'Tua worse than Herbert' flame war will begin!)
    Broncos - W
    Jets - W
    Bengals - W (Tua won't look better than Burrow but the Bengals are just a worse team).
    Chiefs - L
    Patriots - W
    Raiders - W
    Bills - L

    So we finish 9-7. That feels almost too positive and that I should adjust down to 8-8 or even 7-9, but these are the new Dolphins right? Let's hope for the best!
     
  31. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  32. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    9-7 isn't being "too positive" if you assign wins and losses based only on current records:

    Rams - L
    Cardinals - L
    Chargers - W
    Broncos - W
    Jets - W
    Bengals - W
    Chiefs - L
    Patriots - W
    Raiders - T
    Bills - L

    That's 5 wins 4 losses and one tie, so it's quite realistic to say 8-8 or 9-7 (or even 8-7-1 lol).

    As for playoffs we'd probably need to finish 9-7 or better and leapfrog one of the Ravens, Browns or Colts for the last Wild Card spot. This site claims to have done the simulations based solely on record (not sure if it's accurate, but the estimates seem reasonable) and they have us at 36% probability right now:
    http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nflpostseasonprob.html

    Aside from the Dolphins, two interesting observations:
    1) Browns are on track to make the playoffs for the first time since 2002.
    2) The NFC East is on track to have a team that might beat the record for lowest win% to make the playoffs in a 16 game season: the Eagles lead that division with only a 2-4-1 record. The record to beat is Seattle in 2010 with a 7-9 record.
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2020
  33. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    If the Eagles lose at Dallas next weekend, I think that we could see the first six-win divisional champion.
     
  34. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Seeing Dallas tonight, I'd say the Eagles are favourites.
     
  35. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I'd say that they are too. I just meant that if Philly loses that game, they might not end up with more than six wins.
     
  36. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    In the end it'll be Tampa Bay and Kansas City, and it'll be interesting to see whether Tampa Bay's defense and Tom Brady and company can help them keep pace with KC.
     
  37. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    I wouldn't mind seeing a Bucs-Chiefs SB at all. That would be very entertaining.
     
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  38. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    In looking at some things I think we and most everyone are giving the Rams a little too much credit. Has anyone looked at who exactly these guys have beaten? Yes they are 4-2 but the only games they have won were against every single team in the NFC East. Yes, in 6 games so far they have already played every team in the NFC East. The same NFC East that is historically bad in that they are the only division ever to not have a team with 3 wins 7 games into the season. The 2 teams that have beaten them are the Bills and last week the 49er's. The same 9er's team we beat by 26. Yes Garraopolo was coming back too quickly and was a hot mess, but we still put up 43 on the same defense the week before.

    It is going to make tonights game very interesting. The Bears are 5-1 and the quality of that 5-1 is in question but if they do beat the Rams tonight you really have to wonder if the Rams are little better than middle of the pack. Add in the trip across country with the 1PM start time and I'm liking our chances alot more. And if the Bears beat them up a little tonight all the better.

    This assumes that there is no drop off from Tua compared to Fitz and we really don't know. Yet.
     
  39. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Team tiers after week 7:

    Week7.png
     
  40. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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