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Tua named starting QB

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by TheHighExhaulted, Oct 20, 2020.

  1. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Like I said, my assumption is that it's almost impossible for Tua to actually bust (assuming he stays healthy). We'll see of course, but if he doesn't bust and just ends up average, then yes it's probably over for Flores and co. You're right if he busts, but unless my casual analysis of QB play is so completely and utterly wrong that I need to re-evaluate everything from top-down, I just don't see how Tua could actually bust.
     
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  2. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    btw.. it may not be catchy, but regarding Tua nicknames, the SSC Tuatara came out this year. It's the fastest road-legal production car achieving over 300 mph (though there's some dispute about the specific speed record it set). The name "Tuatara" comes from a reptile in New Zealand having the fastest molecular evolution of any known animal.

    Looks cool too (this site is slow.. let it load):

    [​IMG]
     
    The Guy likes this.
  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I completely agree- he's a very legit prospect due to his leadership and poise, his mental toughness PLUS all the football skills you look for in a QB. If you look at what former NFL QBs have said about him (people that know the position a lot better than us), they're all quick to say he's special, the most accurate passer they've ever seen, a great understanding for reading the field, etc....they go on and on. Even early on, Fitzpatrick said Tua was doing things he's never been able to do, so the odds of being a "bust" have to be really, really low.

    Like you said, my main concern pre-draft and today is injury...history is not on his side in that category since he's always missed at least a few games per season. If he stays healthy though then I really feel like the sky is the limit for this kid.
     
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  4. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    There is some irony in that a somewhat below average Tua might be a worse overall result than him being a total bust. It's basically what the Bills are wondering right now. Elite level defense with a QB who isn't an obvious bust but also may not be consistently elite (at least against good teams). Vikings are another good example.

    Still, I think if Flores can make our defense really elite, he will have a longer tenure to try and right the ship if the offense stutters and Tua doesn't emerge as an elite playmaker at QB.
     
  5. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    I didn't really like what I saw of him today. It was decidedly underwhelming.
     
  6. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    He needs a lot of experience that's all. The accuracy is there, but he's a bit overwhelmed by the decision making part of things, whether it's the particular offense we're throwing out there or just the NFL in general. So I think we now know he's going to need some time to adjust (this btw is one reason to wait to start a QB midseason to give them time to acclimate), but I don't think it's THAT much time. I think by the end of the year he'll look a lot better. Regardless, talent is there.
     
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  7. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    The accuracy is there, but I feel like the athleticism is underwhelming. He might, after a few years of experience, be a Drew Brees, if he's lucky and develops well--and he might not, of course. But he's not a come-out-and-wow-you rookie who's going to put up numbers and score points immediately like Burrow and Herbert.
     
  8. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I didn't get the sense that he had any ability at all to stand back there with command and launch a pass downfield.
     
  9. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    You guys are hilarious.

    Tua's played one game. His first game. After coming from an injury, not playing football for ages, now starting in the NFL and then coming in against a top 5 NFL defense with arguably the best defensive player in the league, and without any particularly good run game... and we're concerned that Tua isn't 'the man'.

    Sheesh.
     
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  10. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    If he's not at full capability and not playing up to his college potential, then why is he starting?
     
  11. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    I do think he has arm strength. It's a bit deceptive because of his style, but he can throw a pass downfield. What I don't see is the dynamism of Herbert, Burrow, Mahomes, etc...a guy who has the absolute athleticism to throw the ball anywhere from any stance. Tua is not that kind of QB, which is not to say he can't be successful, but it is to say he probably was drafted too high.
     
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  12. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    What do you think this is? Madden?

    You don't think a rookie QB needs time to adjust to the professional game?
    It's one thing to be healthy, it's another thing to gain actual playing experience. These are human beings, not machines, they have to learn and adjust.
     
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  13. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Can we all just take two minutes and remember who the offense just faced?

    https://www.turfshowtimes.com/2020/10/13/21515044/rams-defense-5-numbers-stats

    https://ramblinfan.com/2020/10/29/la-rams-defense-still-improving-already-stingy/

    The Rams D:
    "4.9 net yards per pass attempt allowed
    Staley’s defense ranks second in passing yards per game allowed at 197.8. Only the Indianapolis Colts (179.6) are better. The Colts have done this on only 155 attempts against as compared to 181 against the Rams, which gives LA the best Y/A (6.2) and net Y/A allowed (4.9) in the NFL.
    QBs against the Rams: 116 of 181, 64.1-percent, 5 TD, 4 INT, 6.2 Y/A, 5.75 adjusted Y/A, 4.9 net yards per attempt, 81.3 passer rating and LA ranks third in pass defense DVOA.

    20 sacks
    over the last three weeks Los Angeles has 17 sacks, which is the most in the NFL.


    18 points per game allowed
    The Rams are tied with the Seahawks and Browns for fifth in total pressures, with 46.


    1.73 Expected Points Added
    The Rams are one of only four teams to have a positive EPA by their defense."
     
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  14. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    I'll post a fuller one of these when one is available but for now:

     
  15. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I'm not a fan of Tua but like I said, I'm giving him 4 games to develop patterns before judging entirely, even if I did throw a little "Told ya so" out there today.

    There were plays to be made he left on the field regardless of who the defense was. That said, the offense...well, Preston, also let him down a few times and noone got into rhythm.

    I have low expectations for him, my draft grade was average to slightly above average starter at best. Regardless of how good he is or isnt in the end, if Herbert ends up better it was the wrong pick. If Herbert ends up worse it was the right pick.
     
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  16. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

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    I don't think he played bad. I don't think he played good. He played like a rookie. Of course, he wasn't helped by some of the drops that happened, but he's going to take some time to adjust. At the very least, he didn't fold or shoot himself in the foot.
     
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  17. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    The problem isn't that Tua played bad. He didn't. He was average. The problem was how he looked while playing. He isn't particularly athletic, he isn't particularly dynamic and he seems small and slow. He may or may not become a star QB, but what he's showing is, he's not going to come in here and knock our socks off the way some people thought he would.
     
  18. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Here we go:

     
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  19. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    WTF we won! He didn't throw five TD's, but he didn't need to! He played EXACTLY how I thought he would play. He was a game manager and we leaned on our defense. We didn't make risky moves on offense, it was very vanilla all game long, very conservative, but that was fine because the defense was on fire.
    You know what this reminds me of? Russell Wilsons rookie year. He was basically a game manager for Seattle all year long. He didn't put up huge numbers, he didn't have 5 TD games or mount massive come from behind victories! But he can certainly do those things now! In terms of the way Wilson was brought along during his career, I think he has had the best possible transitions as a quarterback. He learned how to not lose the game during the years when Seattle had that powerhouse defense, and then he took over as the man a few years later and he has steadily evolved into one of the best to ever do it. I see the same exact type of logic being applied with the Tua situation. Our defense...or so it seems, is legit. Brian Flores has something special brewing with this defensive unit/scheme and you can bet it's going to get better and better over the next two years. Keeping that in mind, having a stout *** defense is going to take a ton of pressure off of Tua. He can learn at a decent pace. He's not being tasked with carrying a team right off the bat the way Burrow or Herbert is. Now, I think both Herbert and Burrow will both be good quarterbacks. Burrow in particular looks like he's going to be one of the greats. So it's easy at the moment to look at the other two and say "that's what Tua should be doing!" Being that every situation is different, we're going to see spikes either for better or worse over the years with all three of these guys. Just because Tua hasn't been thrown directly into the fire, doesn't mean that he isn't going to be good. Just because he didn't throw for 494 yards and 4 TDs in his first start doesn't mean we wont have these type of games later on down the line.
     
  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The way they babied him was reminiscent of Russell Wilson’s rookie year, but the way he played surely wasn’t.
     
  21. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I think the Tua discussion will always come down to whether we should have taken Herbert. I was in the Herbert camp and still am. Tua played a tough D today and can certainly improve.
     
  22. M1NDCRlME

    M1NDCRlME Fear The Spear

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    Some of these comments...if the guy didn’t come out and go 45/46, 400 yards, and 3 TDs, you just weren’t gonna be happy. It’s his first action against a real D, he looked ok. Unlike the Bungles and Chargers, Miami gave him help via the D and STs and didn’t need to rely on him saving the day. Everybody needs to sit back and take a breath, give the damn kid a handful of Ames before we either anoint him or hang him. We’re in a good place, let this thing germinate and see if it blooms.

    :ffic:
     
  23. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    That's a discussion worth having only if Tua ends up only average or so. If he ends up being consistently above average, then it doesn't matter if Herbert ends up better. We'll have our QB.
     
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  24. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    You're being extreme and no one expected that. I don’t think it would have been unrealistic to hope to see a somewhere between 93 yards and 400 though.
     
  25. M1NDCRlME

    M1NDCRlME Fear The Spear

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    I didn’t think Herbert had the tools upstairs. It’s looking like I was wrong. This could end up being the 1983 draft all over again.
     
  26. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    . They both had their issues which is why they didn’t go sooner. Clearly there was debate. I was on the Herbert train. Tua is very likable and for our sake I’d love to see him improve. No one wants to see us waste a #5 pick.
     
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  27. M1NDCRlME

    M1NDCRlME Fear The Spear

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    I was being extreme to prove a point. Go back and read thru the comments, there’s a lot of unrealistic expectations in these comments.
     
  28. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    . I misread and thought it was directed at me. I’m probably different than most because I wasn’t a fan of the pick and don’t expect anything.
     
  29. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    And you ignore what people are actually saying. I don't give a damn about the numbers as long as they don't include a bunch of turnovers. I care about the kind of QB we drafted. And I don't believe he's the kind who warranted a top 5 pick. I won't say we should have taken Herbert because it's too soon to know if he'll be a star long-term, but I will say I wish we had not taken Tua so high. He is just not a game-changer. He's a star QB of 20 years ago, not the kind who's going to be a star in the new NFL.
     
  30. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    It's fine if you didn't like the pick. I certainly thought it was a risk to take him over Herbert. Especially after hearing about how Ross and company loved Herbert two years prior to him being drafted. Seemed like it was a lock for us to take Herbert, but we rolled with Tua and i'm on bored. The "hot takes" are definitely expected. Some folks just aren't happy unless they see the best of what they are getting right away. I don't know how many times i've seen hot takes swayed one way or the other over the years. People were saying Mariotta was going to be the best QB ever after his first two games with the Titans. Troy Aikman went 0-11 and had just 9 TDs to 18 INTs his rookie year. Alex Smith 2-5, 11 ints, 1 TD his rookie year, meanwhile Derek Carr looked like a bonafide superstar his first two years in the league only to struggle for a couple after that, now he's back to being good. Drew Brees was somewhere between mediocre and bad for his first two years before blowing up in '04. Same people on here trashing Tua would have gladly given up Brees for AJ Feely and his fluke "hot run" with the Eagles, or better yet lol Matt Flynn.
    It goes the other way too. Guys start out looking great and then they flounder and either become bad or average. Remember how awesome and amazing Kerry Collins was during his rookie season with Carolina? Dude went on to be a journeyman QB. Robert Griffin? Remember how he set the league on fire? Vince Young? Dave Klingler, Hell... Rick Mirer, set passing records as a rookie! Some of ya'll need to calm down. Quarterbacks have a long shelf life, great ones don't grow on trees, but you can find winning QBs. They are out there. I want Tua to be great, hopefully over time, it happens.
     
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  31. M1NDCRlME

    M1NDCRlME Fear The Spear

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    No worries. Burrow was my choice from early in the season but in the end MIA was too good to get that number 1 pick. I wasn’t completely sold on Tua but I preferred him over Herbert at draft time. I didnt quote anybody because I wasn’t trying to single anybody out, that’s not necessary. In the end we all want the same thing.
     
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  32. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    If you go by that logic, then Joe Burrow wasn't a 1st round QB.

    The main point people here are missing is that the Fins didn't walk into the draft and throw darts at the wall to make the final selection at #5...tens of thousands of hours went into that pick by dozens of staff members. And the fact of the matter is, the Dolphins were completely sold on Tua 12 months before this draft. He was the guy all along and although we would have taken Burrow at #5 if Tua was off the board, we might have moved up to #1 to get Tua anyway...that's what all those trades last year were for. The front office was 100% locked on Tua the entire time and it's why we were in trade talks that whole day before the draft. We wanted to let everyone know that if they moved up to #4, we'd make the jump with them to pick #3. That was the strategy and they got exactly the player they wanted at the spot they wanted to take him.

    I get Herbert and Burrow have looked good this year. But you're judging their 7 or 8 games vs Tua's one start....against one of the top defenses in the league. And we embarrassed that team in the first half, just like we did the two weeks prior, which meant that Tua had to do very little to win today. That was the plan all along as well- dial up the pressure, force the Rams to make mistakes and let Tua take a few baby steps.

    For example, we were stopped three times today on 3rd and 1...on run plays up the middle. Nothing at all to do with Tua by design, because we didn't desperately need those 1st downs. Preston dropped two more 3rd down conversions...good passes by Tua, great placement, but Preston failed. Are we blaming Tua for those? Why didn't the coaches come out more aggressive the next drive to make up for it? Oh, that's right, because we were slaughtering a 5-2 team that we were supposed to be scared of. There was simply no reason to try to "turn Tua loose" against that Rams defense that desperately needed to catch a break.

    In short, we have a plan for Tua that started almost two years ago at a press conference when Grier was given the keys to the kingdom. We've followed that plan every single day since then and we definitely stuck to it today. Tua was unspectacular because that's how the game unfolded...he did exactly what was asked of him except on his very first passing attempt. All in all, he stuck to the plan just like Flores has.
     
  33. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    This is exactly where I’m at.

    I didn’t expect him to be all world yesterday but I also thought for him to start he would be better than 93 yards. I recognize there were some drops, they were going against a great defense and they pressured him.

    Our next 5 opponents are in the back half of passing defenses in the NFL. If we see some improvement, I’ll be more optimistic.
     
  34. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    This team needs to target a tight end in the first round this year, if there's one whose talent is commensurate with that draft position. Tua needs a George Kittle/Travis Kelce type he can target about a dozen times a game.
     
  35. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    If Tua ends up being just "average", how in the hell can it be over for Flores and Company? That's a pretty ridiculous to say Brad, even from someone as knowledgeable as you! Tagovailoa was on EVERYONE'S radar and a dream pick prior to his injury. Any team that needed a quarterback and had the opportunity to take him would have drafted Tua in a heartbeat, so I don't see how it would be curtains for Flores if Tua is merely an "average" quarterback".

    Does anyone truly believe that, for the sake of conversation, had we drafted Herbert the Chargers wouldn't have drafted Tua? Of course they would have! He as rated THAT high!
     
  36. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Neither one of those guys were taken in the first round. I think you can find value in the mid rounds with TE’s.

    At this point, I think you go WR, LB, DE or QB depending on how Tua plays/develops.
     
  37. DolPhinPhan7

    DolPhinPhan7 Well-Known Member

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    Tua def underwhelmed, but the game plan was taken out of the 2008 Tony Sporano's Chad Pennington playbook. Even down to random Wildcat plays!

    I think Flores knew all the hype about Donald and this stout defences. And the first play where Donald Strip snaps him only made it worse. But he didn't make any dumb mistakes, like I suspect Fitzy might have.

    This week Dolphins receivers need to do a crash course on counter clockwise spinning footballs because a lot of drives were killed by drops. Looking at you Preston Williams!!!

    I think Tua and Co probably won't see a defence as dangerous as that for the rest of the year. Great baptism by fire.

    I also suspect, had the Defence not completely dominated Goff, the playbook would have had to been opened up to keep them in the game. The rest of the team picked Rook up on his first full game.
     
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  38. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    It's irrelevant how hyped a QB was. What matters is how he performs. Do you think anyone cares that Ryan Leaf was considered on par with Peyton Manning pre-draft? No, it's how good the QB actually is that matters.

    More importantly for a HC, what matters is whether the team (maybe I should capitalize that like you do?) is a playoff team and has a decent chance of winning a SB. A good/great defense + average offense will rarely take you deep into the playoffs. Flores might stick around for more than the 3-4 years Ross usually keeps HC's if he manages this, but eventually yes it will be his downfall if he can't find a franchise QB, precisely because they're so important for winning SB's.

    Have to be above average on both sides of the ball to have a decent shot at a SB, with a few exceptions of course.
     
  39. DolPhinPhan7

    DolPhinPhan7 Well-Known Member

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    Justin Herbert finds himself in a relatively low pressure situation. Ditto with Joe Burrow.

    Both are on teams that aren't expected to win.

    This Dolphins team has turned into quite a good story. O-line: good, D-Line: good, Secondary: Very good, WR's: Great when not dropping Tua's counter-clockwise passes. Tight Ends: Very good.

    This team could already be a playoff team.
     
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  40. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I posted in another thread talking to cBrad that I think our new over/under should be 10 wins THIS YEAR...that's the standard I'm holding them to since we have a pretty easy mid-year schedule. Arizona is a big test and we still have KC and a few other tough games (Oakland, Cinci, Bills) but we SHOULD definitely win a few more that are expected losses and then remain consistent against these average teams.

    Right now, today, the Dolphins D is giving up the least points league-wide. We're leading the turnover differential as well and those are two critical stats in winning football games. I personally don't love Tua starting today because we are an extremely potent offense with Fitzpatrick, but I need to be patient and trust that the team knows what they're doing since every other element has been lights-out this season.

    This is absolutely a playoff team though since we've blown out 4 of the last 5 opponents...it really stinks we didn't have a preseason since this could be a 7-0 or 6-1 ball club right now. I look back at the Pats loss, for example, and compare that team to the one we're putting on the field today.....we are going to absolutely destroy the Pats in our 2nd match-up AND this team is still getting better weekly. I really don't think we lose more than 3 additional games this season; but that puts a ton of pressure on Tua as well since he will eventually have to win a few for us in tight games. T

    Tua is in a very high pressure situation but the team is also making his transition a lot easier, and I have a feeling that will continue all the way into January. Barring serious injury, I'd be shocked if we don't get at least one playoff win this season....our defense is just too legit and I think the offense is right there with them with Fitzpatrick. We'll just have to see how much "Tua-Time" it takes to catch up to Fitz's levels.
     

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