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Are the Dolphins a Playoff Team?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by The Guy, Oct 12, 2020.

Will the Dolphins make the playoffs?

  1. Yes

    43.9%
  2. No

    56.1%
  1. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Chargers have given up an average of 31.8 points per game in their last 5 games, with the fewest being 29!!

    That defense has issues. Their W/L record is mostly due to just barely losing shootouts. Thing is, our defense may be weak against highly mobile QB's, but against less mobile ones like Herbert we tend to play better. So I'm very confident here.

    Vegas favors us by only a FG, which I think is underselling our defense against pocket QB's. In any case, with Tua we can win a shootout if necessary so I see 6-3 coming up.
     
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  2. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I really have no clue as to how the Dolphins defense is supposed to function. It all goes over my head and I feel lost when I look at it. But I really don't think that giving up over 400 yards and over 25 first downs is a sustainable way to win games. Its going to come back to bite them if they don't real it in.
     
  3. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    So far the pattern is we're pretty good against less mobile QB's but not against the Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson types. That has to be fixed of course since you'll run into those in the playoffs, but there's time for that.

    Still impressive this is all happening in year 2 of a massive rebuild (it's exactly what you expect actually from a majority of HoF HC's.. they turn the team around within 2-3 years).
     
  4. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Stop obsessing about yards and first downs. The only thing that matters is scoring defense.

    Miami's had the luxury of playing with massive leads this season, so at least a full game of football through 8 games was garbage time where teams amass first downs and yards. The LA game was 2.5 quarters of garbage time for a potent offense.

    I wouldn't worry too much about the Cardinal game, Murray is a freak of nature and was a one man wrecking ball.

    Watch the games again and get back to me with missed tackles or improper scheme. You won't find to many mental breakdowns or missed opportunities. This defense is on the ascent and will only get better with another draft class full of talent.
     
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  5. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    And I'd much prefer this defense to the bend and break D's from the JJ/Wanny era.. It was great to play high level defense for 3 quarters but it sucked donkey nads to blow leads late in the 4th quarter or give up 3rd/4th and long plays that had a low probability of success.

    This defense may bend but it's not breaking. That's what you want in todays NFL.
     
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  6. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    We'll agree to disagree. As long as the defense is similar to what it is now, I'm never going to like it, believe in it, or trust it.
     
  7. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Even if they win a Super Bowl?

    I thought you weren't excited to watch a team with a dominant defense. Are you now expecting the defense to not only be top in scoring but also top 5 in yards against and first downs against?

    I'm a little confused.
     
  8. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I'm not expecting them to be elite in any aspect. Hoping that they might some years, but never expecting. But when they get gashed all game long and can't stop the other team from moving up and down the field unless they create a turnover, that's when I have an issue.

    I guess I expect them to be average. And its so ironic that right now, the Fins defense ranks #16 in total yards allowed, pass yards allowed and first downs allowed. But its been feast and famine. Allowing almost nothing one game, but a huge amount the next.

    I don't want to bang too hard on a team a year and a half into a total tear down rebuild. That's not my intention. I think they need time to get it right and I don't want to seem impatient. But its my bewilderment that so many people think that things are now awesome because of the won loss record that's throwing me sideways. We could just as easily be 3-5 right now, and if we were, I wonder how differently the conversation would look. Thats why I'm not focused on the record this season at all, but rather how well they're playing. And we can of course disagree on what we want to focus on with regards to that.
     
  9. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Jeez, we COULD NOT EASILY BE 3-5 right now. Our margin of victory is BY FAR THE LARGEST in the AFCE.

    I know the team hasn't been molded in the image you want - That doesn't, however, create an alternate reality.
     
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  10. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Sunday's game against the Cards was a nailbiter down to the wire. And I'm sorry, but without all of those turnovers, I think the Rams blow us out two weeks ago. That game was very close to going the other way, regardless of the final score.
     
  11. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Do you realize how stupid this quote is?
     
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  12. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    No man. I'm a big believer that you cannot rely on turnovers on defense, and that you cannot rely on big plays on offense. You need to be able to win without them. They're the ice cream after dinner, but they can't be the meal. And if you stink outside of those big plays and win, then you should feel lucky that you stole the game.
     
  13. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Well.. if you're REALLY interested in stats that correlate with winning, and I'm not sure you are because you've often said style is more important, then you're focusing on the wrong stat.

    The correlation between points allowed per game and win% is -0.7337 across NFL history, which translates to 53.8% of variance in win% explained, while the correlation between yards allowed per game and win% is -0.4929, which translates to 24.3% of variance in win% explained. In other words, points allowed per game explains about 2 times more than yards allowed per game, in terms of what matters for winning.

    So if you really care about winning, then focus on points allowed, not yards allowed (should be intuitive anyway).

    Total yards isn't a good measure mid-season because some teams haven't had their bye yet. You need to use yards per game, in which case we're #22. Points per game? #4. Note again which is more predictive of win%.

    Also note the similarity to NE's defenses during the Belichick + Brady era, where the average rank for yards allowed per game was 16.2 but points allowed was much higher at 7.16. Points allowed matter FAR more than yards allowed.
     
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  14. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Turnovers are part of the game and almost a direct correlation between winning and losing. And, probably the biggest point of emphasis for every team during game planning every week.
     
  15. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I'm not interested in things the same way that you are, no. I've said that many times over. And I'm not trying, AT ALL, to say that points allowed doesn't matter. Of course it matters.

    What I'm saying is that allowing a ton of yards, a ton of first downs, a ton of plays run, and allowing the other team to control the clock cannot reasonably be the way that you want to go about things. It cannot be the plan, or the goal, even if it works here and there.
     
  16. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Did the Rams drop the ball on a platter for Miami or did Miami's defense create turnovers with their scheme and aggression?

    Miami blew out the Rams, plain and simple and you can't spin it any other way.
     
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  17. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    OK. I'm glad that you're happy. I've been trying to stay out of things the last two weeks so I don't bring down everyone else's party. I just can't be excited or hopeful watching the team look the way that they have. Hopefully, as time goes by and they grow and get experience, they'll be better.
     
  18. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    You are completely denying reality right now. You have yet to respond to the comment that Miami has had over a full game (better yet a game and a half) of large leads vs the Jets, 49ers and Rams.

    Your main argument is that a top 5 offense with an elite QB played well against them (also with a top 3WR)

    Step away from you're anger.
     
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2020
  19. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Here's an interesting stat: correlation between turnover differential and win% across NFL history (SB era) is 0.6317 while it's 0.634 for passer rating. In other words, turnover differential is essentially equally predictive of win% as passer rating.

    In both cases, they explain about 40% of the variance in win% (pretty huge).
     
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  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The Dolphins have the second-best pass defense in the league in terms of EPA per pass dropback.
     
  21. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You have to consider that the league overall is passing the ball and scoring at an all-time high. What's promising about the Dolphins now is that they appear to be able to do it, too!
     
  22. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Could you explain what that means? I haven't heard the stat used before.

    I see that the Fins are 19th in yards per attempt allowed, 13th in Adjusted YPA, T-24th in YPC, T-14th in Net YPA, and T-10th in Adjusted Net YPA.
     
  23. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I'm going to give the offense a lot of leeway. A very young QB getting his first playing time. A very young OL where none of the starters had played together before this season. A WR corps badly depleted by injury, and basically no run game. Its a hard situation.

    Its going to understandably take quite a while before things look smooth. I'm hopeful that they'll look better as the rest of the season goes on.
     
  24. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Here's a good explanation:

    https://www.advancedfootballanalyti...s-explained/expected-points-and-epa-explained

    Again the Dolphins are second in the league in EPA per pass dropback. Their run defense isn't nearly as good, but run defense is far less important than pass defense.
     
  25. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I'm not a believer in "expected" anything as far as stats go, but thank you for sharing.

    I'm also not a believer that run defense is unimportant. Stop the other team's run game, put them in long yardage, and then force incompletions, leading to punts. That strategy still works, and is used by NFL teams with good defenses today.
     
  26. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Who cares? This team is showing us that they can win a lot of different ways.

    Face a mobile QB who murders us with his feet. Tua outduels in the 4th quarter.

    Face a nasty DL and a QB who can’t handle pressure. Blitz the hell out of him and force him to make bad decisions.

    face a lousy Jets team, curb stomp them.

    Face a beaten up SF team, Fitz goes off and we force more turnovers.

    And oh by the way, turnovers are a function of pressuring the QB. This team is getting good at that. Especially with 2 very good corners that have allowed us to do that playing more man.
     
  27. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The "expected" component makes it far more informative than yards alone. For example getting 8 yards on 3rd and 8 is far more valuable than getting 7 yards on 3rd and 8, even though when measured in yards it's a mere one yard difference.

    The Dolphins for example are best in the league in 3rd down EPA per play.
     
  28. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The issue there is that teams aren't doing "run, run, pass" anywhere near as much as they used to. So stopping the passing game on early downs is more valuable than stopping the run game in general. It's also the case that the run game doesn't generate anywhere near the EPA the passing game does.

    Take the Dolphins for example. Not a great run defense at all, but the best 3rd down pass defense in the league. That flies in the face of your equation above, which would fit better in let's say 1995.

    I understand what you're saying, that you want what they're doing to be replicable. But a lot of it is. Much of the defensive stuff, and now it appears Tua may indeed be a guy you can generate a reliable passing game around.
     
  29. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I think that the sample size is far too small to believe any of that will last, just yet. They would need to prove that over multiple years for me to think they can keep just countering anything that's thrown at them.

    Fingers crossed for them to gradually establish their own consistent identity on both sides of the ball, and then eventually force their will on the opposition.
     
  30. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    That's just a weird thing to say. You're saying that because you're taking some intuitive notion of "expected" and assuming it means the same thing in statistics. In statistics, "expected value" just means "average". For example, if the league average passer rating is X, then the expected value of passer rating is X. So unless you have some issue with using averages you don't have an issue with expected values.

    With EPA, it's the average number of points scored on the next drive from a certain game situation (i.e., down, distance, etc.) based on NFL history. That's it. Such "averages" are useful because they have predictive value if the distribution doesn't change over time. EPA doesn't need adjustment for era, but some other stats like passer rating do. So you adjust for era by equating the "expected values", and possibly equating other things like standard deviations.

    Anyway, as long as you use averages (which you do) you're using expected values so I think we can dismiss your statement.
     
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  31. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    The problem is waiting for multiple years the roster is going to see a shift in personnel and talent. The good teams adapt.

    All that matters now is we are winning in a lot of facets in the game really besides running the ball.
     
  32. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    Respectfully, I honestly don't know what the heck you're disappointed about. The defense is playing at a high level. The only defensive Stat that REALLY matters is points allowed. Yards don't matter, not really. Keeping your opponents from scoring points is the only thing that matters for a defense. Generating pressure and forcing mistakes is one of the things that facilitate that. Last week the number one scoring defense went head to head with the number one scoring offense. We won. Yards allowed really don't matter that much any more.
     
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  33. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I get it. Virtually everyone else is on the other side of the issue from me. Oh well. Debating all of you isn't going to be productive. And posting my feelings and opinions seems to be pretty worthless anymore either. I want and need different things from football that most of the rest of you do.

    And thats not based on stats, or the fact that the team won or lost at the end of the day, but just watching every play with my eyes and feeling that most of the time they're going to be able to line up and execute a normal football play on both sides of the ball effectively. Right now, on both sides of the ball, it feels like there are only a few minutes left in the game, and every play is a desperate and chaotic attempt to score or prevent the other team from doing so. Thats not shocking given the inexperience all around from the coaching staff down through so many of the players. As I said, I expect things to take time. My hope is just that with that time, what we're seeing now goes away and is replaced by something much more stable.
     
  34. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    I agree with you that you can't always count on turnovers, but teams have won the Superbowl that way.
     
  35. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Sure. But I'm a lot more interested in building a sustainable winning team that can go out and do their thing, week after week, for five or six seasons in a row. A team that barring severe injuries or horrible luck should be favored to reach the Divisional Round most seasons.

    The teams that go to the Super Bowl on the backs of big plays, like the 2015 Panthers who went 15-1, almost always crash back down to Earth and aren't the same afterwards. They went 6-10 the next year, and have only had one winning season since.
     
  36. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    you really misjudged this team from the get so I would think you would be the most happiest fan in the world..
     
  37. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    As I said, my joy isn't going to be based on wins and losses right now. I'm looking for details and progression. Right now, they're scrappy and surviving and squeaking things out mostly by the seat of their pants. I'll be happy when that settles down and isn't necessary most of the time, and things slow way down on both sides of the ball.
     
  38. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Our defense is #4 in points allowed after 8 games. That's really hard to do through "luck", suggesting something sustainable. Same with Tua's performance against the Cards. That's QB talent on display right there and is also likely sustainable.

    So I don't buy your "not sustainable" argument.

    For me, winning a single SB is worth a LOT more than many years of consistent high level play without winning a single SB. So I'd be totally happy with a team that won the SB on the back of big plays that aren't sustainable. But like I said, there's good reason to think that the Dolphins' recent success isn't some fluke.
     
  39. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I don't think that we've seen anything sustainable at all from the offense yet. As I said earlier, I'm not banging on them for that. They're in a really tough spot and are making chicken salad right now. But its a mess.

    As to the philosophical question, it comes down to your personality, I think. If you told me that I could choose between one guaranteed title surrounded by three bad seasons on both sides, or I could choose a seven year period where the team was going to win 10+ games every year but had no guarantees once they got in the playoffs, I'm taking door #2 100% of the time.
     
  40. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Really? You don't think that what Tua did against the Cards suggests he's one of those rare QB's that can carry a team if necessary? Those types of QB's tend to have sustained above average play.

    This is testable though. If Tua performs well for most of our remaining games, and if the defense keeps their relatively high ranking in points allowed, then that should prove to you that this is sustainable.

    Remember, you're now talking about sustainability, not "style". So if it's just sustainability you're after, then winning most of our remaining games alone should convince you that this IS sustainable.
     

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