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Fitz is back

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by pumpdogs, Nov 28, 2020.

  1. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    The thing that hurts the most is Justin Herbert.Its only 1 season and yes Tua has played only 4 games but Herbert is having the best season a rookie QB has ever had on a bad team.We would be real contenders this year if we took him over Tua.
    I'm not going to say how smart I was wanting Hebert because I personally did not like him in the draft but I sure was wrong about him.
    He is light years ahead of Tua and this hurts because we passed on him.
     
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2020
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  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    While it's true that the sample size doesn't permit a reliable appraisal of Tua's performance individually, we do know that the Dolphins' offense, in terms of EPA per play, has been 1.68 standard deviations worse with Tua than with Fitzpatrick -- from +0.44 SD to -1.24 SD. That's pretty stark, and Flores has to have his finger on the pulse of some semblance of that.

    The offense with Tua essentially forces the defense and special teams to compensate and win games, whereas with Fitzpatrick there is no such onus on those parts of the team.

    So if you're Flores and you want to make the playoffs, you have to ask yourself how sustainable you believe the defensive and special teams play is. If I'm him I'm not putting my money on that sustainability. I'm wanting Fitzpatrick back in there to give the team a fighting chance.

    And I'm someone who doesn't care which QB plays the rest of the year. I'm just trying to think about it from Flores's perspective.
     
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  3. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    As long as you're ascribing causality to the QB, sample size issues will be similar for passer rating and offensive EPA per play, and if anything it's worse for EPA because you're including more things the QB doesn't directly affect.

    No, there are still no "QB stats", whether it's EPA per play on offense (conditioning on the QB), or passer rating, where sample size is large enough so that historically the difference is reliable. Also, keep in mind that sample size required is larger the smaller the difference is that you want to detect. That 150 attempt threshold is for detecting a large difference in ability. For Tua as a rookie, we might need more.

    I think you'll see relatively soon (2-3 weeks) that Flores thinks more like what I described: the future is Tua and we need to see him more this year. We'll find out what Flores thinks.
     
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  4. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Right, but I think Flores is probably willing to make a type I error when every remaining game has such a great impact on playoff chances, and there is no evidence that Tua offers a greater likelihood of winning than Fitzpatrick. If he makes a type II error on the other hand his season is probably done.
     
  5. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Flores doesn't have to get to the playoffs this year. That's nonsense that he would be starting Fitzpatrick for the sole reason to get to the playoffs to make himself look good.
     
  6. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    To make himself look good? What's nonsense is this entire post.
     
  7. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    I was quoting "The Guy" who said:

    Since you know how to turn on notifications for everytime I make a post, because you reply to every one within 5 minutes, maybe you can take a little time to actually read and comprehend the topic being discussed.
     
  8. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Same, I wanted Herbert too. But I’ve moved on from that and just hoping Tua figures it out.
     
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  9. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Well, it was the end of that post saying it would better his career, possibly implying that is his sole intention, but I don't think that was his intention there.

    This is about, given the circumstances, putting the team in the best position to win. Nothing more. Nothing less
     
  10. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    If we're playing the "what if" game, then what would Tua's rating be if he started those first four games this year with the line in complete shambles, the defense struggling with Jones hurt, etc? With such a young team, it's hard to get a true apples to apples comparison.

    For me, Fitz was finding the end-zone more often so I think he's the better player today. I do agree with you though that it's not just about who gives the best chances of winning this week- it's about 2021 and beyond. I'd rather see Tua start "IF" we have a decent chance of winning with him each week. I'm really torn on this- you want your rookie out there gaining experience but you also want to win the game for the rest of the roster that's playing at high levels. I could really argue for either player.
     
  11. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Probably not good, but Fitz was pretty bad with a 83.48 rating over those 4 games. I doubt Tua does worse.. I mean his worst ratings so far are in the low 80's, including against Denver. Not sure this what if game is helping Fitz.
     
  12. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    If Tua isn’t back in the line-up against Cincinnati, he’s done for the year. I’m a bit concerned about the Tua drama that’s unfolded this past week.

    He’s pulled last week (justifiably so) but we were told it wasn’t injury related. He practiced this week and now being told he’s doubtful due to a thumb injury sustained last week. Well which is it? Was he pulled due to injury or performance? Is he doubtful this week due to injury or performance, especially since he practiced this week?

    This is why I say that if Tagovailoa isn’t playing against Cincinnati, there’s more to this than meets the eye
     
  13. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    The thumb injury was sustained this week, so nothing to do with being pulled last week:
    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...yan-fitzpatrick-expected-start-miami-dolphins
    As far as why he's doubtful, Flores said he had to watch film on Tua first, and apparently he didn't like what he saw.
     
  14. JPPT1974

    JPPT1974 2022 Mother's Day and May Flowers!

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    Yeah as really hope Tua will be the QB for the future. But on the other hand, wished he made Tua sit back and watch like Mahomes in KC. Fitzpatrick should not had been demoted for putting up good numbers.
     
  15. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Which goes right back to what I was asking...is he being listed as doubtful due to his injury, as per the quote or due to poor performance as you stated?
     
  16. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Is 10 TDs and 8 INTs good numbers though?
     
  17. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Personally I think it's a little of both. IMO Flores is trying to get Tua the game experience but also not trying to rush him.
     
  18. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    Tua will be back against the Bengals. SMH, you people and your conspiracy skeptic cook ups! My god!
     
  19. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I hope you’re right. I never said he WASN’T going to be back nor did I not want him back. I just expressed my concerns based on what has transpired.

    Last week’s loss against the Broncos wasn’t all on Tagovailoa. There were entirely too many times the defense had Denver on 3rd and long and allowed them to convert.
     
  20. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Oh, I think Tua would have done a lot worse- he would have been slaughtered. My point was that Fitz's ratings on the year are worse-off because those early games before the line figured some things out.
     
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  21. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    First of all, Fitzpatrick in almost every year he's started has ended up with a below average rating, so this year isn't some anomaly. In fact, he's quite a bit better (less below average lol) this year than in most years. So no Fitz wasn't in some anomalous situation just based on his own ratings.

    Secondly, the OL has actually been a point of praise this year, even in some of those early losses. That was true in the first NE loss. And in that Jacksonville win it was widely acknowledged the OL was good. Even on these boards people were surprised the OL looked like it was actually decent (not all the time of course). So no the OL wasn't so bad a typical rookie QB was going to get "slaughtered" like you say. I actually think you're remembering LAST year, not this year.

    Finally, the OL actually was bad against Denver, even if Tua took way too many sacks. So if Tua is getting low 80's ratings in that terrible Denver game when not only the OL was bad (and much of the rest of the team) but also Tua was playing at his worst, you really have no good argument he'd do far worse ratings-wise when the OL was actually doing better.
     
  22. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I'll say how smart I was (jokingly). I said Herbert was a better prospect than Burrow or Tua.

    To me it should be clear to anyone who evaluates player skill and not player statistics though. His skills just translate better to the NFL.

    Not to knock Burrow, he was great too before being injured.
     
  23. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    I was a burrow guy and he didn't dissapoint but he went to the wrong team with stupid coaches.Tua was my fourth rated QB in last years draft and so far I haven't seen anything to change my mind.
     
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  24. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    Well hopefully we're all just overreacting just a little bit. He hasn't even thrown an interception yet. It was a rough game against a good Denver defense. Watch and see Taysom Hill struggle today. Mahomes had a hard time against them. Bradley Chubb gets to the quarterback, Vic Fangio is an awesome defensive coach. That Bears D from two years ago that he coached was the best defense I have seen since Baltimore's back in the early 2000s. I just think this was more of Tua facing a defense that is well coached as opposed to "oh he sucks, there is no thumb injury, he's broken, made of glass, blah, blah, blah." I haven't seen you say these things at all, but others have. Then you have the group (for whatever reason) that just wants to be right about their dislike over the pick. As of right now, it looks like Herbert was the better option, but everyone knows these things change over the years.
    For me it's not about being right or wrong, it's about finally getting the quarterback this team has desperately needed! Tua has checked those boxes so far despite the rough game last week. He's playing a little safe, but with time I think that'll fade. We're trying to make the playoffs too so maybe Fitzpatrick IS the better choice if that is the plan. I don't know, the thumb injury really is the worst timing for all this.
     
  25. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    He hits his thumb on his throwing hand and it swells up and he’s “injury prone”. You people crack me up.
     
  26. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The difference between Fitzpatrick and Tua at this point is that Fitzpatrick throws picks typically as a result of aggressiveness, while Tua throws them (potential ones at least) typically as a result of inexperience. The latter isn't somebody you want to make a playoff push with, especially when his game isn't yet efficient at the level of Fitzpatrick's.
     

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