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Thoughts on benching Tua?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by jdallen1222, Nov 22, 2020.

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  1. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Bills offense is very good. They've scored only 7 fewer points all season than KC, which is saying something. Worse, defensively they've become much better since their bye week, allowing only 16.8 points per game in their last 5 games.

    I know that Bills fan got banned for trolling, but he was right about the Bills being a very good team. I am not going to feel bad if we lose to the Bills. I just want everyone to play well even in a loss.
     
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  2. Finrunner

    Finrunner Season Ticket Holder

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    I think this is absolutely incorrect. The Patriots defense may or may not have given up on the season, but they had basically given up on stopping Allen and the Bills offense by the 3rd quarter of that game. Allen has become a true, elite superstar. I remember when the Dolphins were thinking about drafting Brady Quinn, and the counter-argument was that accuracy can’t be corrected. Well, that same argument was made with Josh Allen, and the argument was not correct with him. Changes in his mechanics were made, and he accepted and worked on those changes. His accuracy, confidence, athleticism, and arm strength make him a weapon that can attack the whole field. That’s tough on ANY defense, and it will help open up a running game even if their backs are only league average or so right now. Aside from the Chiefs, Buffalo is probably the offense I fear most in the NFL, and that includes the Pack, Saints, Cardinals, Seahawks over in the NFC, too.

    The Dolphins are going to have to learn to compete with them, because the Bills ain’t going anywhere for a while. They struck on a good coach and QB, which is a pretty formidable obstacle for other NFL teams.

    Hopefully, we’ve learned by Sunday.
     
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  3. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I wouldn't say that the Bills offense isn't that scary. They are a potent offense, but I went back and looked at the Buffalo v Pittsburgh game, seeing how Pittsburgh has been the only REAL defense they've played this season and there was something I noticed...

    If you keep Allen in the pocket, he tends to make poor throws or get sacked however, if he's allowed to roll out, he becomes quite deadly. So the cure for stopping Buffalo, keep Allen in the pocket.
     
  4. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Tua has 4 games with an above NFL average passer rating and 4 games with a below average passer rating. Considering where this team was at the start of 2019, covid and the late season injuries then I am pretty happy that he’s having a solid rookie year. His passer rating for the year so far is 93.2.
    Ryan Fitzpatrick has seen significant action in 9 games and posted above NFL average ratings in 5 and below average in 4. His passer rating for the year is 95.6

    At this point I’d say there is no statistical evidence that starting Fitzpatrick would give the phins a significantly better chance of winning the game than starting Tua. They’re different QBs that have different strengths and weaknesses.

    So for me the question is which option gives the phins the most benefit in the long term. It’s not the difference between winning the superbowl or not this season. The focus should be on the big prize, which is what gives us the best chance of winning a superbowl next year.
     
  5. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    You say that as if it's a comfort. I know---everyone knows---that Fitz is a streaky journeyman. The fact that our top-5 QB of the future isn't clearly outplaying a streaky journeyman is what concerns some of us.
     
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  6. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    It's not a concern to Flores apparently. For Flores it's the entire body of work (not just a knee jerk reaction after one or two games) and the improvement he's seen from Tua that matters:
    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...nds-decision-stick-tua-tagovailoa-starting-qb

    Oh, and regarding whether Flores is making decisions based on trying to win now or on developing a future franchise QB:

    Sounds like Flores thinks Tua is on the right track and there's no reason for concern. Probably worth elevating Flores' opinion of Tua a little more here given how impressive he's been as a HC.
     
  7. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Or maybe Flores is simply smart enough not to say something derogatory about the young QB in the press?
     
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  8. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    There are many ways of answering a question. Flores went well beyond just dismissing criticism of Tua. He phrased his answer in a way to suggest Tua's body of work was satisfactory. He didn't have to go that far. In fact, Flores explicitly put to rest the type of speculation you're seeing:
    I think the nail in the coffin of this idea that Flores might be concerned about Tua's development will come on draft day. If we don't pick a QB with our first pick, then that tells you Flores thinks Tua should be our QB for the next few years.
     
  9. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Ok, I’m NOT defending Tagovailoa. I just want to point out what should be the obvious.

    I don’t believe anyone here would argue playing quarterback in the NFL is the most difficult position to play.

    Everyone is patient a year or 2 with running backs.

    Everyone is patient a year or two with wide receivers.

    Everyone is patient a year or two with offensive linemen.

    Why in God’s name is it that this same patience isn’t applied to a rookie quarterback?

    I don’t follow the Bills nor the Browns fan forums but I’ll bet a dime to a dollar their fans were not only saying bad things about Allen and Mayfield, but their mothers as well.

    How’s that turned out for those young quarterbacks?

    Patience folks. Once holes are filled and we actually have bonafide offensive weapons for Tagovailoa to work with, he’ll either shine, in which case everyone is going to have a viagra induced erection or he’ll flop in which case we’ll know it’s him and time to cut along load.

    Then we’ll be the Tennessee Titans pre-Tannehill...and all we’ll have to do is find that quarterback whose been shafted

    We’re in good shape guys. Take a chill-axative!
     
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  10. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure how you can look at the Raiders or the Broncos game and say Fitz did not out-perform Tua in those contests.

    Additionally, writing off a Super Bowl this season is ridiculous- just ask Marino how tough it is to get there and how impossible it is to win one. You can't take anything for granted in the NFL and everything we're doing today is 100% about 2020 with the goal of rings this season. No, we probably won't get there but that's not the point...you always play to win no matter what. The 2021 season is the furthest things from Flores's mind at this point- all he's thinking about is how to beat Buffalo and whoever we draw after that.
     
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  11. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I completely agree- the pressure IS NOT on Tua at this point to produce perfect monster games. At the same time though, the pressure is on the franchise to win now and the team needs to do everything they can to make that happen. There's no QB controversy in Miami despite people's hot takes.
     
  12. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    And yet, in the last two games, when it mattered, Flores turned to Fitz.

    I get the similarity in rating, but the admittedly flawed QBR has Fitz at #4 in the league with a 77 something, and Tua is like a 57. While that stat is flawed, I would say that it does seem to reflect what I see on the field: Fitz makes plays happen, especially downfield, while Tua does not.
     
  13. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Every game matters, and Flores turned to Tua over Fitz midseason after liking what he saw in practice, and he also went back to Tua as starter twice after benching him. Like Flores said (and like I've said) don't forget the times Tua played well. Don't just remember his 2 bad games.

    It's worse than flawed, it's an unknown. You can't really suggest ESPN's QBR better reflects what you see on the field when they had Tannehill at 64.2 last year (the year Tannehill came in #1 in passer rating) below Fitzpatrick at 68.3. That's just bull****. Unless you want to argue otherwise.

    Passer rating is transparent despite its flaws. Please stick to transparent rating systems.
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2021
  14. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Flawed stats are only ok when they're related to blocking and pressure?

    Don't sit there and act like Tua has been masterful with this offense. The announcers talked all game long last game about how Tua isn't seeing the open receivers. Tua played well against Arizona. The other game he was great in the third quarter, and nothing special the rest.

    But this is about the offense looking stagnant with Tua, but threatens every part of the field with Fitz.
     
  15. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I would argue that Fitzpatrick was more valuable for Miami last year than Tannehill was for Tennessee. Why? Because we had zero protection, zero talent on either side of the ball, a historically embarrassing start and we still won 5 of 7 down the stretch.

    That's not me saying Fitz > RT...I'm simply saying that Fitz did more for Miami than other QB's did for their team. I believe that's what QBR is trying to reflect here.
     
  16. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Like I said, ESPN's QBR is worse than flawed, it's not even known what they're calculating. You don't even know what the flaw is!! Again, please stick to transparent stats.

    Where did I suggest he was masterful with this offense? Average rating is more or less correct: he's been average overall. And yes the offense looked stagnant for those 2 games, but not in every game. He played well against KC too.

    Not sure what you're getting all uptight here about. All I did was point out Flores thinks Tua is playing well overall and that Flores isn't concerned. Unless you don't take Flores for his word, that's a powerful signal right there.
     
  17. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Who knows what they're calculating. They also had Stafford and Prescott over both. Justify that if you want.

    Again, best to stick to transparent rating systems. Otherwise you have no clue what resulted in the rating.
     
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  18. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Man, again, Flores isn't going to come out and say anything negative about Tua. But the fact is, they don't trust him when the game is on the line. If they did, they wouldn't have brought in Fitz. You can spin it however you want, but it doesn't change that simple truth. You don't pull the guy that you trust and believe gives you the best shot at winning. That's all I'm saying. It's concerning that when push came to shove, Flores turned to Fitz the last two weeks, and now, in a must win game against a division opponent that is having a fantastic season, we have to hope that Tua can run the offense like Fitz...except he really hasn't shown that he can do that.

    Again, like I said many posts ago, I hope I'm wrong, and Tua plays great.
     
  19. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    And regarding QBR, I understand fully your argument against it. However, I appreciate that they attempt to get a better value of what the QB is contributing to the game, something traditional QB rating does not, and cannot, do.

    When it comes to Fitz vs Tua, looking at rating would have you believe that Tua has been playing the same as Fitz in this offense. However, if you watched the Raiders game, it was very clear that Fitz is playing a much different game than Tua, and really gets the offense pushing the ball downfield. All I'm saying is, the difference between the two in QBR mirrors what I see when I watch the offense. Tua makes completions, but they're almost always a safe throw, and generally not pushing downfield. Fitz makes completions, but more of them are downfield. There's definitely a different energy with Fitz than with Tua.

    That in no way means that I think Tua is a bust, or won't be good. But, it's really exactly what I was worried about with him, from watching him at Alabama. He had it so easy playing with those players, that I was expecting him to have a more difficult transition to the NFL.
     
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  20. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Coaches often do say negative things about a QB if they think they need to move on. Just look at how Ron Rivera responded when asked about benching Dwayne Haskins:
    https://www.nbcsports.com/washingto...era-defends-his-decision-bench-dwayne-haskins
    Like I said earlier, there are many ways Flores could have responded, but he responded by explicitly pointing out people shouldn't only focus on the 2 bad games, and that overall he thought Tua played well. I don't see any smokescreen here. That sounds like a coach who is not concerned about how Tua is developing. Anyway, we'll see for certain in the draft.

    And I'll only start to become concerned if Tua can't fix the problems he has (e.g., seeing when WR's are open) next year after a full offseason. Or worse, if he has to be pulled for poor performance again next year. But as a rookie? No I'm not concerned, especially when his flaws look like they can be fixed during the offseason.
     
  21. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Great.

    Honestly, think the game plan has been to play Tua as long as possible, as he doesn't turn the ball over, and then fall back on Fitz if necessary. Gets Tua playing time, while minimizing Fitz throwing picks. It's a good strategy.

    However, again, this was about Tua's play vs Fitz's, and regardless of passer rating, I don't think any reasonable person can say that Tua has the offense functioning at the level that Fitz does, or that Tua is contributing as much to the offense as Fitz is, at this point in time.

    And I'll say it again, Tua is very fortunate to have the number one defense.
     
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  22. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    It has nothing to do with wins and losses. It has to do with what he's shown. Burrow and Herbert didn't win a bunch of games, but both of them showed incredible potential and talent. Tua has not shown what they've shown. He's shown a few flashes, but nothing like those two, nothing to prove he was worth the fifth overall pick. And if Flores thinks he's not better than someone he could take with the Texans' first pick next year, it's not impossible he'd take another QB.
     
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  23. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    They both have the benefit of a #1 defense. I think the offense moves more with Fitz (statistically seen in the huge Y/A difference), but as you said Tua plays safer.

    In terms of win/loss it's hard to say. I don't think Fitz wins the Arizona game, Tua doesn't win the Vegas game, and Fitz clearly played better in Denver but, as he is sometimes famous for, ends the drive with an INT. Not sure there's too much difference in terms of end result, maybe at most 1 game.
     
  24. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Not being able to pull the trigger on throws because you cant determine who is open isnt a laughing, joking or improving matter and has ended careers.

    It's a serious thing a lot of QB never get better at.
     
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  25. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    This sounds awfully familiar Rick. Sounds exactly like the same arguments that were levied against Tannehill circa 2012.

    Again, I’m NOT defending Tagovailoa. I’m merely being pragmatic. Tannehill was thrown to the wolves by an inept coaching staff and no weapons to work with at all. Well we all know what he’s doing in Tennessee under a real coaching staff with a complete team.

    Tagovailoa was thrown to the wolves with a few weapons and played well until those weapons were taken from him via injury. The difference between Tuas being thrown to the wolves 2020 vs Tannehill being thrown to the wolves is the coaching staff we have. That weaponry is going to be addressed in the off-season.

    Like Mayfield, like Allen, the team is going to be upgraded and average play SHOULD be elevated.

    Seeing what I’ve seen in Miami these past 2 seasons, I have faith in Flores. While some may point to this stat or that stat, for me the only stat that matters in a TEAM sport like football is the scoreboard at the end of the game. You either won or you lost and this YOUNG TEAM is learning HOW to win.
     
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  26. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    And what did it take for Tannehill to be the QB of a contender? It took a superstar running back and a great offensive line. And he still doesn't put up big numbers against good defenses. He'll go to town against bad D's sometimes, but when the other team shuts down his running game or forces him to pass, he shats the bed about 2/3 of the time. He's a slightly above average NFL QB. It's all he ever has been. And if we drafted the same damned thing with Tua, then what was the point of getting rid of Tannehill? If Tua is Tannehill 2.0, then we should keep trying till we get it right. Not saying he is because it's still too early to tell, but so far, he hasn't shown anything that shouts at me "look, I'm a future Pro-Bowl QB!"
     
  27. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    He ended the drive with an INT because time ran out, he just marched us over 100 yards in the final minutes, and it was literally fire for the end zone or take the loss without even trying. To me, that interception was more on what Tua didn't do for 3.75 quarters than what Fitz tried to create in the final few minutes of the game.
     
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  28. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    Potential and talent doesn't mean cr@p unless you win games. Potential and talent doesn't count on the scoreboard at the end of the game.
     
  29. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    He also comes into the game needing to make huge plays to get back into the game. The scheme and play calling become different.
     
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  30. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Tell me more stories about Tua being as good as Fitz because rating is similar.

    Today the defense gave up 28 in the first half. The Bills went 75 yards in four plays for a TD at the end, AND STILL got to kneel it to end the half because the Dolphins couldn't run out the clock and had to punt. Ridiculous. Tua has not shown that he can lead the offense to points. I'm just saying, there's not really anything, other than draft position, to say that Tua is going to work out.

    Edit: yes Special Teams gave up one score, so 21 on the defense.
     
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  31. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Pick six. This drive tua just threw a lazy pass into triple coverage, lucky it wasn't picked.
     
  32. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Got to draft a QB with the #3 overall folks. Hopefully the pick is that high.
     
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  33. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The difference in the thinking is whether you draft a QB because you're certain Tua's ceiling is too low, or you draft one because you're not certain it's high enough. I think with the infrequency with which you're drafting that high, the choice should be dictated by the latter, not the former, and we certainly can't say we're certain Tua's ceiling is high enough.
     
  34. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    If Fitz wasn’t out today, Tua should have been benched again.
     
  35. btfu149

    btfu149 Well-Known Member

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    Forget benching Tua, time to do what Arizona did with Rosen
     
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  36. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    ...in the first quarter.
     
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  37. Destroyer

    Destroyer There for every play.

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    Tua sholdn't even be on the plane back.
     
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  38. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    Defense gave up 50
     
  39. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    My thoughts? Put Tua on the bench. Put the bench in a vault. Put the vault in a helicopter. Fly the helicopter over the ocean. Drop.
     
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  40. Dolphan24

    Dolphan24 Active Member

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    This wasn’t on the defense
     
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