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Today I had a total reversal on Watson, Tua, and the direction of the Dolphins

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by DOLFANMIKE, Jan 29, 2021.

  1. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Tua has shown plenty... He looked a little rattled late... But we saw him make great reads.... We saw him throw to his second and third option with ease.... He does these things seamlessly...It takes some NFL QB ten years to show that poise and understanding of opposing defenses.
     
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  2. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    If Tua was doing all these great things, why did the offense suck *** with him in there?

    Honest question, cause I don't know what the you're talking about. There were games where the commentators talked the entire time about how Tua wasn't seeing guys open downfield. How is he going through reads if he's not seeing open guys? Who cares if can make reads if he's never trying to challenge downfield?
     
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  3. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Because he didn't do it every down every game. But he flashed it a fair bit, especially in games like Arizona. We get it, he didn't have the same fantastic success as Herbert, but not every QB comes storming out of the gates like that. He did show the ability to throw downfield, but didn't actually do it consistently. Then again, it seemed every pass he did was dropped by our stone handed WRs. He wasn't throwing to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams out there.

    The question is whether he showed enough flashes of potential to warrant another season, especially one with even marginally better talent around him, a semi-normal offseason and another season removed from that injury. He should be able to focus more on football rather than injury rehab this go around, which should translate into some arm strength and mobility improvements.
     
  4. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    As I recall, Derrick Henry was not spectacular until Tannehill took over at QB. That must mean something!
     
  5. DOLFANMIKE

    DOLFANMIKE FOOTBALL COACH 32 YEARS Luxury Box

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    And nowhere in that description do I say Stafford is as good, or any worse than Watson. It was never mentioned either way.
    No need to over compensate on your misunderstanding. It's getting embarrassing reading you going on and on about something that was only going on in your head.
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2021
  6. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    It's not only in my head. Fireland in post #3 had the same "misunderstanding" thinking you meant Stafford would be as big a move as Watson or Lawrence. Fact is you equated all three QB's as "Star QB's". Maybe you shouldn't equate them like that if you don't want people to "misunderstand" you in the future.
     
  7. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    I cannot watch the games for you... There were times Tua struggled I am not arguing that. There were also times when he was seeing things on the field that were spectacular.... When they would show the replay you would realise that he got rid of the football in under 4 seconds and he looked at 2 or 3 targets and then found the open receiver.

    When Parker was hurt or playing at less than 100% we had arguably the worst recievers and RB surrounding a QB in football. I like Gesicki, but he cannot carry the whole F*cking team himself.
     
  8. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Henry has always been a monster... It is worth noting that he was a lot more effective once the Titans had a QB playing well for them though. I do not think we should diminish the talents of Henry... The kid can play.
     
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  9. RevRick

    RevRick Long Haired Leaping Gnome Club Member

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    Geez'o Pete!
    The guy was a ROOKIE coming off an injury and probably just a little hesitant to really cut loose in game situations.
    Have you played any sport on a questionable body part? Tentative, even in the pros, still comes to mind! Additionally, it seemed to me that he was still spending a lot of time on the escape from D-linemen way too easily invading the backfield [with malice aforethought and purposing harm for him] while he was getting focused on what was going on around him offensively and where his receivers were going to be any moment he might cut loose.
    Far too many quarterbacks have learned more about sprinting for their lives behind a POROUS at best offensive line. Far too many have also had foreshortened careers for the same reason. I don't think we could call this last years line much more than almost adequate from what I saw, and that might be stretching it! (although I must advise that I don't get to see many Dolphin games during the season being on retired salary, out of state, and subject to the networks combined vagaries!)
     
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  10. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    More than the injury.... We did not have receivers that were open.... One of the differences with Fitz was that he was trusting Parker and Gesicki to go get the football more than Tua was.... It was not that Parker and Gesicki were wide open And Fitzmagic was seeing something that Tua could not... Fitz with his experience just let it fly and trusted Parker and Gesicki more than Tua did.

    Tua will improve in that area with experience. But it is a huge red flag that we did not have receivers creating separation... We do not have speedy players that can be thrown open consistently.

    We saw for years the Pats kill us with players that just got open no matter what... Welker, Edelman, Amendola...etc... They gave Brady easy completions... We did not do that for Tua as a rookie.

    Cut the kid some slack
     
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  11. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Unfortunately, we have games where Tua was benched, and Fitz played with the same receivers, and somehow magically they were open downfield for him.

    Also, we were told Tua was 100% and gave the team the best chance to win.

    Now you want to argue that his performance was poor due to his injury?

    I don't care if you support Tua, but stop blowing smoke. He didn't look good. You can have faith that he'll get better, and I agree.

    I just don't see a special QB.
     
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  12. EverFin

    EverFin Active Member

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    Watson is without any doubt an elite QB. The price to bring him to Miami is one thing. The more importing thing for me is what is he worth for us with the current roster and the addditions we can do with the remaining draft picks. I think our defense will play another year on a above average level, maybe not top 6-7 but clearly above average. But I don't think that the offense can play on a high enough level to win championships only because of Watson. Of course you cannot compare the Texans with the Dolfins. But keep in mind, his 33:7 TD/INT ratio, 4'823 yds and 112.4 RTG was good for just a 4-12 record.

    If I compare the current Fins-Roster without Watson to the Bills without Allen or the Chiefs without Mahomes I don't see us to contend for the Conference Championship game.

    If we can bring Watson to Miami and find a way to add skill players who can stay healthy (I don't want to experience another situation with the fourth RB an no proven WR on the field for a important game) and improve our OL - well, that would be a different story.
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2021
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  13. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    No

    In those games Fitz like I said trusted Gesicki and Parker to go get the football. There were a couple of times he found Gesicki downfield... But a huge percentage of the completions were jump balls.
     
  14. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Watson is special and he makes Gesicki and Parker better just stepping on the field.

    They could sign a slot guy like Samuel and draft Humphrey and Williams in the second round and have what they need for the offense to be above average.

    I personally do not think the Texans would even talk to us unless we gave them both firsts this year and our first next year... ( Plus Tua )

    It is a very steep price to pay. If we pass and build around Tua I will be excited. If they get Watson and sign a free agent receiver I will be just as excited. I do not think that means I am a homer per se, I think with this defense and this head coach... They can win a superbowl either way.
     
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  15. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    Same here, although I would be even happier if it would work out with Tua just because we drafted him and I like the plan of building through the draft and with Watson we would have to change that a bit.
     
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  16. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    I have to confess that something in me never likes acquiring a top QB via trade in this way. It probably just some romantic notion about drafting your own QB but that's just how it feels to me. So my huge preference here, what I want to see happen, is for Tua to work out and us to have our franchise QB in him, and for him to be great. That just feels right and good.

    Of course, Tua might not be that guy, in which case, picking up a quality QB like Watson would be the best move. The problem is, we don't know and can't know. Grier is going to have to figure it out.

    If we do pick up Watson and he's not great, or it hamstrings our ability to build our team, it'll hurt. Especially if Tua moves on and becomes great. My heart wants to see Tua be the guy, and that's made easier by Watson commanding a hefty price tag.

    You pays your money and takes your choice.
     
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  17. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    Doesn’t matter I’m going to call it now deshawn Jackson goes to New England it makes to much sense for him
     
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  18. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    I hate that idea...LOL Do not want bellicheat to have a top 3 NFL qb
     
  19. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Who the hell is Deshawn Jackson?
     
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  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Right, but that was with an exceedingly poor pass defense, and so the notion that QB play wins games (i.e., the reason you consider trading for Watson) still holds. The Texans' pass defense simply let other QBs outplay Watson too often.

    Same thing happened to Drew Brees 2014-2016, when Brees was among the league leaders in passing and the Saints' pass defense was so poor the team had a losing record each of those three years.

    Watson's 2020 performance alongside the Dolphins' 2020 pass defense would've very likely resulted in a 12-4/13-3 record. And as it appears now, there's no reason to believe the Dolphins' pass defense is going to weaken significantly in 2021. So the acquisition of Watson would very likely vault the team right into Super Bowl contention.
     
  21. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The argument against Tua is entirely based on arm strength.

    Advocates feel the arm is "average" or "adequate." Meanwhile, the critics base their concerns on claims that it's "below average" or even as bad as "bottom 5 among starters."

    Nobody I've heard questions his vision, his decision-making (for a rookie), his ability to elude pressure or throw with touch. For a rookie, he's remarkably polished. That's undoubtedly a big part of what got him drafted as high as he was. People seem to agree with that across the board.

    People worry that where there are holes in opposing defenses (e.g. between the CB/S in a Cover-2 shell) that Tua isn't going to be able to attack these the way a proper NFL QB has to. It was this lack of deep/outside throws that showed itself against Oakland where Tua wasn't attacking and yet Fitzpatrick came in, started making those throws and immediately we saw a dramatic difference.

    Throughout the game, Oakland played without several of it's defensive starters (due to Covid) and thus sat in a rather stock 4-3 / Cover-2 alignment. Nobody thinks that Tua lacks the knowledge of where to attack that, especially against 2nd-stringers. That goes back to college and even high-school. That's baby stuff. When Tua elected to consistently check it down, critics grew louder in their concerns that maybe Tua just doesn't have the physical prowess to be the starter he was imagined to be.

    Tua's critics point to his time at Alabama as being evidence of the fact he prefers not to throw outside the numbers unless he's throwing it deep and that for all his polish and taking care of the football, he's not actually a very physically-impressive QB specimen.

    Keep in mind many of these critics were vocal about Tua's arm before the draft and are taking this season to be evidence that they were correct all along. So many of these people are rather contentious having been arguing the same point for a year now and believing themselves to be both vindicated by the 2020 season and thus on the "unbiased" of the debate.

    It's also notable when reviewing Alabama to note that Mac Jones was able to put up the same numbers Tua did. This is also taken to be evidence against what some claimed last year in regards to how much Tua made that offense go.

    The critics claim Tua's unlikely to actually develop as a passer because his arm is a liability and that it'd be better to groom someone with more "NFL" talent than to try and create the perfect set of circumstances around Tua, who they view as inherently limited.

    The Tua critics aren't going to be convinced until the arm strength issue is put to bed. And from their perspective, there's no reason to think Tua needs "more time" to develop, as QBs typically don't increase their velocity to any great extent beyond their rookie year. The critics feel the 2020 season justified their pre-draft critiques.

    So going forward, Tua's arm is either stronger than they think or it's something Tua (and the Dolphins) have to contend with.
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2021
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  22. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Arm strength is nice and all.

    But Tannehill has a cannon ... and when he was a Dolphin the usual suspects said he was not worthy of building around and he could not win... They criticised everything else about him. Now we have a QB that was one of the most mentally advanced QB's to come into the NFL in years a proven winner... and the people want to complain about his arm strength

    LMAO

    Come on guys Tua played in what 9 games?

    The arm is fine... He was completing a high percentage of passes and was not throwing a lot of Interceptions... So what is the issue with his arm exactly?
     
  23. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Compared to Tannehill, Rodgers, Allen, Herbert etc... Drew Brees arm looks below average.... Nobody ever says a damned thing about his arm... Tua playing a full year... being healthy... developing... Showing he has made progress in trusting receivers... In letting it fly... Our line getting better... better receivers.. ( I mean really folks we had Tua throwing to Gator... and that is borderline pathetic.. ) A run game that is not anemic

    When we win 12 games next year and push hard into the playoffs I doubt anyone here will be complaining about Tua and his lack of arm strength.
     
  24. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Unfortunately, it's not that simple. You can't just say "the arm in fine" and win the debate. Blanket statements don't actually convince people.

    Fact is, Tua's high CMP% was offset by an unacceptably low air-yards-per-target and a poor Y/A average. Those are very important stats. We know that the Y/A average is going to have to improve but that'll require more yardage. So he's either going to have to throw it deeper (thus risking a lower CMP% and more INTs) or he and the receivers will have to generate a great deal more run-after-catch (RAC) like we see in Green Bay's offense.

    The reason that Tua could produce such a high TD/INT ratio and still end up with an 87-rating is the low Y/A, and unfortunately, we know that Y/A is a very strong signal of QB competency.

    So even if you're someone who tends to believe in Tua, there's still a lot of uncertainty out there and the optimism has to be predicated on a sense that Tua and the offense will get better in areas that were really disappointing this year. Of course, if you're someone who believes he lacks arm strength, it makes all the sense in the world to doubt things will improve.

    Hence the debate.

    I like Tua a lot and think he'll continue playing well and probably improve with better talent around him, but I won't for a moment condemn those who point out these uncertainties. Tua's success is dependent upon the type of offense in which he plays.
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2021
  25. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Except...

    You fail to take into consideration The Dolphins did not have decent receivers for much of the year... Parker was out or playing hurt most of the season. Williams was hurt. Gator sucks... and then we had a few rookies playing off the practice squad.

    How much of the yards per attempt was because of the play calling from the OC? Fitzmagic has played multiple years under Gailey and there is no question his ability and freedom to run that offense was going to exceed that of Tua.

    It is not like Tua was throwing passes to Deandre Hopkins and Tyreek Hill out there.

    We all want to see improvement from Tua... All of us. Not addressing the fact that mostly our recievers were garbage last year is a fatal flaw in your argument.
     
  26. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Haha, hey, I like your attitude and quite frankly you're preachin' to the choir.

    However, debates like these tend not to resolve themselves too easily, LOL.
     
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  27. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Trust me... LMAO... I remember the massive Tannehill meltdowns on here... and the fact that Guy changed his argument like 17 times... each time statistical analysis would show his argument did not hold water and then he would find something else to complain about with Tannehill.

    I am not expecting everyone to agree, ever.. Hahahahaha
     
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  28. DOLFANMIKE

    DOLFANMIKE FOOTBALL COACH 32 YEARS Luxury Box

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    No, I said exactly what I meant. Thanks though. I'm sorry you didn't get it. Maybe you confused your friend that didn't get it either?
     
  29. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    There's no reason to resolve the debate about Tua this offseason. Whether you like him or not (and I like him), the "resolution" to the debate should come from actual performance on the field, and not just from his rookie season.

    First, we need to see serious improvement in year 2, and second we need to see sustained high level play by year 3 (statistically passer ratings tend to plateau from about year 4 but year 3 is fairly close). Anything less than that and we need to start looking for a new QB.
     
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  30. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    How could I confuse someone who responded before me? It's what you wrote that's the problem, if indeed that's not what you meant. Regardless, my posts on Stafford being far less valuable than Watson stand on their own.

    Ready to move on or are you going to keep this up?
     
  31. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    The thing that sucks, though, is if the FO gets it wrong, we will have blown our best chance to get a star QB. We have a huge amount of draft capital and cap space this offseason.
     
  32. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    We do not need to see massive improvement.

    Tua had more than 2 touchdowns for every pick on a bad offensive football team as a rookie. He completed over 64% of his passes with mostly garbage receivers. QB rating of 87.

    If he improves his stats by 10% across the board he is entering into very good company... Close to 70% completion Ratio QB rating close o 95 TD:Int ratio of 3:1

    Yes we are all looking for improvements... Just having the O line improve... A running game that is functional.. and a couple of upgrades at receiver will allow Tua to meet these benchmarks... If he then shows improvement because of his development we are looking at a top 10 QB
     
  33. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Statistically Tua was average for a rookie QB (almost exactly so for rookies with 150+ attempts since 1978), but he was below average compared to the league. Yes we do need to see massive improvement next year. At minimum he should be slightly above average next year with clear improvement on his decision-making, like seeing when WR's are "open" in the NFL and knowing when to throw the ball away, take a sack, etc.

    Doesn't have to be polished, but if he's below average stats-wise next year I'll start to sour on him.
     
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  34. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah, QB debates tend not to resolve at all until someone either wins a Super Bowl and is on a trajectory towards the HoF or goes belly up entirely. There are usually too many variables until you get that sustained stretch of undeniably-great QB play with statistic production backing it up.

    Personally, I'm excited about building around Tua. I understand the conversation given Watson's potential availability and the fact the team has a shot at the #2 or #3 QB this year by virtue of having a top pick but I'm very content to build around Tua.

    I'm rather surprised there are so many in the media that turned so quickly after hyping Tua as a great QB coming off that Arizona game only to completely end up trashing him at the end as though he's a total unknown.

    Like, @Etrius24 above, I tend to think we saw way more from Tua in year #1 than most rookie QBs put on display. He checked it down more than I like and sometimes it's not clear why, which does support the Pennington-arm perspective, but to me, there's really no doubt he offers plenty to build around. However, I think next year is definitely critical. He's way too polished to be throwing up another sub-90 season IMHO.

    Anything you're looking for next year in particular with respect to Tua?
     
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  35. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Greg

    I think it important to look at Tua before he got benched in his first 8 starts he has 10 touchdowns and 2 picks... He was very good with the football. Not a lot of 21 or 22 QB's can say that... 8 starts... 2 picks... That is incredible. Especially when we did not have great support players around him and over half of the O line were rookies.

    Instead of just making blanket statements like Tua's arm is not a cannon ( and it really isn't ) I wish people would look at some of the great things he showed us last season.
     
  36. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Assuming he starts most games, I think stats alone are sufficient to gauge progress, especially Y/A. Not sure if it will get to "statistical significance" because sample size is still small, but there should be a clear difference in distribution of stats from 2020 to 2021. Otherwise, I don't want to see the constant check downs. He needs to see "NFL open". It will be disturbing if that's still a problem in 2021.
     
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  37. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Like Brad, I would love to see more yards per pass... Obviously... So many variables on that though.... What routes are our receivers running... What plays are being called.. Who is calling the plays. How much time does Tua have to throw. Do we upgrade our receivers... How much separation are they providing for him. Will there be an effective running game ??????

    If we see improvement in all of these categories and there is not noticable improvement in Tua's Yards per pass, per game... TD per game... TD: Int ratio... Sure I will put the blame on Tua.

    I think we need to look at Allen in Buffalo... He was very underwhelming as a rookie... But the Bills went out and Go An elite possession receiver... an elite deep threat and one of the better slot receivers for him... Not to mention a quality tandem on running backs and a quality offensive tight end to throw the football to.

    Yes, Allen developed and he deserves credit for that... but what a coincidence that as the Bills solidified their O line and added supporting talent around Allen his stats started to take off. There should be no expectation for Tua to duplicate that success without a great line and great talent around him as well.
     
  38. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    I mentioned it before in this thread with Tua... but I love the term that you used... "NFL OPEN"

    Well done.
     
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  39. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I didn't come up with that. I think even announcers in some games said it. But it describes the issue well, and as I've said in so many previous debates (you weren't here I think) that's something that Tua should be able to fix over an offseason, which is why we actually should expect serious improvement next year. Otherwise, there's something wrong with him.
     
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  40. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Oh I agree... It was very easy to see the biggest difference when Fitz came in was he trusted Gesicki and Parker to go get the ball to win battles... and he let it fly.

    And I agree playing more and more time practicing with his receivers will allow Tua to anticipate when to let the ball fly. So I expect a natural improvement.

    Any improvements we make to the talent level around Tua and to the protection he is given will only compound these gains.
     

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