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Today I had a total reversal on Watson, Tua, and the direction of the Dolphins

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by DOLFANMIKE, Jan 29, 2021.

  1. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    He threw a bunch of short, safe passes, largely. Which, really, I wouldn't care about, except that the offense was incredibly stagnant with him in the game. I AGREE that he can (and almost assuredly will) get better. His lack of interceptions, imo, were a direct result of Tua taking the safe shorter passes, and mostly avoiding taking shots downfield.

    For me, it's not whether or not Tua will get better. It's that I don't see an elite QB waiting to come out. There's a good chance he'll end up better than average...but that isn't what you drop the 5th pick on.

    At least Tannehill came out of college with a cannon arm, prototypical size for a QB, and extremely durable. I was completely fine with picking him that high based on his predicted ceiling. I don't personally think Tiua's ceiling is as high as Tannehill. I view Tua as a safe pick...his bust potential was low, but I don't think he'll ever be elite.

    There's a good chance I'm wrong, I'm no expert. Just a dude who has watched most of Tua's games, both in college and the NFL. I wasn't clamoring to draft Tua after watching him at Alabama, and nothing I saw from him last year at the NFL level changed my opinion.
     
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  2. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah, unfortunately, a 95 rating would've only ranked #18 this year, right behind Ryan Fitzpatrick, LOL and as you said, Tua played with a 92-rating for most of the season. If we're saying that a 92 wasn't really cutting it, a small jump to 95 isn't much of an upgrade.

    Let's be honest, Ryan Fitzpatrick did achieve that 95-rating and quite frankly it wasn't good enough either. In today's NFL, if you're not close to 100 or even exceeding it you're really not doing anything special and teams have to work really hard to overcome un-special QBs, haha.

    I look for Tua to be in the upper 90s next year given how polished he is as a thrower. He's way more groomed than most and that's evident in his CMP% and his INT%. But he needs to be more effective. That's the bottom line. When he got pulled from the Oakland game he had a 99 rating. Point being, it's possible to have a respectable rating and still not be doing the things that lead to winning. When Tua got pulled, he only had 94 yards passing. That's the problem. We need more output from the offense, even if the efficiency is respectable.

    Yeah, I'm 100% with you on the INT%.

    Tua actually ranked #10 in the entire NFL in that stat and I don't think it's merely out of checking it down (although he certainly did that). To me, INT% is a real indicator of quality and potential so I think it's really good to see him already taking care of the football.

    Surprisingly, Herbert was right there tied with Tua and Burrow actually ranked #3 in the NFL. I don't quite think people yet appreciate just how good all 3 guys were.

    I think this 2020 class is ultimately going to prove itself better than that 2018 class with Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Jackson, etc.
     
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  3. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    The thing is that Tannehill is now very close to Elite.

    Top 5 QB's in the NFL right now

    1. Rodgers
    2. Mahomes
    3. Watson
    4. Wilson
    5. Allen

    After that, there is a strong case to make that Tannehill is the 6th or 7th Qb on the list. I would argue that Tannehill and Murray were about equal this season.

    If Tua gets to that level and we have a coach like Flores and a top defense... We are going to win superbowls.

    We do not need Tua to be the best or one of the top 3 quarterbacks in the NFL to win... We just need him to clearly be a franchise QB that is better than a fringe top 10 QB....
     
  4. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    I will be the first to admit that while I liked Herbert... I did not think he would this good.... Especially right out of the gate. It helped he was throwing the ball to Henry and Allen... with Eckler as his running back... but still the Kid... Was great and I will be the first one to eat crow... He exceeded my expectations for him. Burrow looked good and he was at or near where I thought he would be.

    Definitely a great QB class.
     
  5. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Another thing that many (including myself) have pointed out is that right now, the top guys all have big arms. It's not just the guys we've been watching for a few years like Rodgers, Tannehill, Mahomes and Watson but also the new kids on the block Josh Allen and Justin Herbert.

    When that's your competition, it's not surprising that being the average-arm guy you get dinged in the media.
     
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  6. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I don't disagree.

    Where I disagree is that I don't think Tua will be at the level of Tannehill.

    Like I said, chances are I'm wrong. However, that's my opinion of Tua. I think the most likely scenario is that Tua ends up an above average QB.

    I've compared Tua to Ginn, in that I think he'll be a fine NFL player with a decent career, but will never live up to his draft position.
     
  7. DOLFANMIKE

    DOLFANMIKE FOOTBALL COACH 32 YEARS Luxury Box

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    Keep what up? You embarrassing yourself? Yes... I've seen enough. Go misunderstand someone else's posts!
     
  8. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Except that Brees was a top 3 QB most of his life... Had he not been hurt this year he had numbers per game to be considered in the top 6 or 7 as well. He has a Tua like Arm.
     
  9. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Also

    Tua's arm is as strong as Burrows... and nobody is doubting that he will become a clear franchise QB
     
  10. flounder97

    flounder97 Well-Known Member

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    Dumb question time...what is the measurement of a “strong arm”? I’m pretty sure there’s clips of Tua throwing the ball 30, 40, 50 yards in the air. Does a strong arm throw it 60 or 70?
     
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  11. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    It's not necessarily about the deep ball. Even a "weak armed" QB will be able to throw it 30-50 yards. Yes, a string arm guy will be able to throw it farther, generally speaking. Remember people losing their **** over Jawalrus Russell being able to throw it like 60 yards while kneeling? It's about the velocity they get on those balls going on say out routes. Guys with weaker arms can't get good velocity on out patterns, which will result in interceptions, or just not being able to call those patterns. It's also about window size that they can throw into, stuff like that.
     
  12. flounder97

    flounder97 Well-Known Member

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    So we just need to find clips of Tua throwing a 30 yard out in a tight window with zip on the ball?
     
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  13. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Clearly, they should not exist... Because his arm is, as you know, weak... (O;
     
  14. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    No, because even a weak armed QB can do things to compensate in order to get some extra velocity on the ball. So, a clip of a completion doesn't prove anything. However, doing things to add velocity will cause a QB to have to change mechanics, which almost always means it takes longer to throw. So, the QB has to start throws sooner, and with the mechanics changing, it means that the oline giving time to throw is even more critical, as it takes the Qb longer to get those difficult throws off.

    If we're going to start arguing that Tua does in fact have a strong arm, I won't be participating. Go read scouting reports. Arm strength is not a strength for Tua.
     
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  15. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Dude,

    I did not say he had a cannon like Tannehill or Rodgers. Just because I did not say that... Does not mean his arm has to be weak.

    Most all College QB's can make all of the pattern throws. Tua's arm is more than capable of that. ( And then some. )

    Stop trying to frame the argument to give yourself an escape route.
     
  16. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It's not really how far the ball is thrown as much as how fast it gets there...and people measure it because it matters. If it were merely about being able to throw it 60-70 yards it wouldn't much matter. Still, it is nice to have a QB that can find someone late in a play and still make the throw. We all watched Chad Pennington check it down over and over despite Ted Ginn having gotten behind the defense.

    Velocity in the NFL and more specifically the ability to generate velocity from less-than-perfect situations is a big deal. It's why some guys hang around long enough to start looking pretty good once they learn the game (e.g. Stafford, Tannehill, Mayfield, etc.) and why other guys never get those 2nd and 3rd opportunities. There's a reason why someone like Josh Allen was given 3 years to develop even though his passing stats started out abysmal and remained entirely underwhelming in year-2 as well.

    How much rope someone is given is directly related to how much talent they possess. Truth is, Tua may not have the ability to earn that 2nd or 3rd shot based solely on upside. He's got to earn it with good decision-making and that's really hard to do without years of experience. It often requires that the team around you be really good (e.g. Russell Wilson).

    Anyhow, arm strength is generally measured as velocity. People like Chris Kouffman of the 3YPC podcast (Ckparrothead on the forums) have lots of experience measuring velocity. As I recall, Chris was of the opinion Tua had sufficient velocity when he needed it and that Tua's arm was thus adequate for the NFL. It's important to note that nobody ever claimed his arm was above-average. Average is the upper-end of the various grades you'll find out there.

    I do think people sometimes mistake touch for lack of arm strength. Tua demonstrates a lot of touch on short- and intermediate-passes, especially across the middle. His passes are exceptionally catchable. He's entirely willing to "float" it in to a RB and has the touch to do it, even as a rookie. Herbert and Allen on the other hand go out and shoot lasers.

    As a final note, I'd say the comparisons to Drew Brees work both ways. Yes, Drew Brees can be an example of a short guy with moderate arm talent becoming great, but he's also unique in that regard. He's the exception to the rule. He's as sharp as they come mentally. Asking Tua to replicate a HOF player shows the kind of challenge one faces when they don't possess above-average physical talent.
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2021
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  17. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If there were 100 examples of guys like Drew Brees becoming HoF QBs I think you'd have a point. But this kind of argument is anecdotal and actually argues against taking the physically-limited type of player.

    It's why Russell Wilson fell to R3 having been passed over by every single team and why it's seen as such a shock that he panned out the way he did. For every Russell Wilson (or Drew Brees) there are scads of others who failed precisely because they never possessed the rare ability to overcome being so physically average. We remember the guys like Wilson and Brees but we quickly forget the other 200 guys who never made a dent.

    Expecting Tua to be the next Drew Brees or Russell Wilson could be seen as optimistic but could also be cast as naïve.

    Again, I like Tua, LOL, but I get people's point. I think he'll probably come in next year stronger than he was this year. And I suspect he'll prove to be quite capable once he's operating an offense that uses his skills more appropriately and once he's throwing to better WRs. I'm just not going to make excuses or argue that it's a sure thing. He has to show up next year and do a better job pushing the ball down the field. If the offense grinds to a halt the way it did several times this year with games of fewer than 100-yds passing no one will be very quick to defend Tua.
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2021
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  18. DOLFANMIKE

    DOLFANMIKE FOOTBALL COACH 32 YEARS Luxury Box

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    Some great insights on why Watson may prefer Miami
     
  19. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Drew Brees isn't the only weak armed QB that ended up great. Young and Montana were also weak armed QB's that statistically ended up #1 and #2 in adjusted career passer rating. Young himself said this about Tua:
    Not that such comparisons matter. It's rare for anyone to become as successful QB's as they were, regardless of physical ability. It does however show you don't need a strong arm to be one of the best QB's, so that trait shouldn't be overvalued.
     
  20. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I'm not. I'm not even the one who brought up arm strength.

    Tua HIMSELF says he played poorly ("below average"). I don't care if you believe that he has told to be great. I don't care if you want to argue he has a very high ceiling.

    I care that when I read your posts about Tua from last season, the QB you describe is not a QB I saw playing last season.
     
  21. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I mean, using two QBs separated by a almost a quarter century seems to indicate that they are outliers. Lol. Arm strength/size IS important to consider, given that so few prototypical size/strength QBs gain elite status that the odds are even more stacked against a player doing it who does not possess prototypical size/strength.

    As humans, we also love to root for an underdog, and tend to highly celebrate those underdogs who turn out to be stars.
     
  22. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    I am not going to make excuses for him either next year if we get Humphrey and bring in a RB and a wideout to help the offense out... If he does not take the offense to the next level he deserves all of the criticism he can get.
     
  23. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Just so it's clear though, the proper comparison is percent of strong armed QB's in the NFL that become elite vs. percent of weak armed QB's in the NFL that become elite. You can't just compare number of elite QB's with strong vs. weak arms because it's possible there are far more strong armed QB's in the NFL (depending on your definition).

    I don't know what those percentages are, but that's the comparison you want if you want to determine whether having a weak arm makes it less likely you'll attain elite status than having a strong arm.
     
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  24. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I mean, your odds of getting the NFL when below prototypical size/strength are already way lower. So, to even get there means you have talent.

    But with the heightened level of play in the NFL, It's incredibly hard to rise above when you're aren't prototypical size strength.
     
  25. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    While I agree with the performance goals you put forward for Tua, I disagree about waiting 2 or 3 years for a new QB.

    I feel every team should have an older backup QB with 5 or more years of NFL playing experience ready for immediate play and a developmental QB being groomed as a replacement QB. These "replacement" QB's may be replaced as often as every year or two, depending on the caliber of the backup QB and the availability of decent QB's in the draft.

    As long as a team is always bringing a new QB on board, it should never be a surprise to the starting QB. Remember the immortal words of our old backup QB Matt Moore. "Your always just one play away from going on the field", or something to that effect.

    When your QB goes down, you need an immediate replacement. That's what the backup is for. He should be good enough for two or three games so that the QB being groomed as the starters replacement has a few games time to get as fully prepared as possible to step in.

    There is always the scenario where the backup QB gets knocked out of the game too and the QB being groomed for the starters replacement may have to go in the game immediately, but I've only seen that happen 3 times.
     
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  26. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Oh I agree with all that. Just to be clear, I'm assuming that any backup or developmental QB you have doesn't prove he's the franchise QB you've been looking for. I mean if he's the solution at QB then of course you don't need to draft another QB high (you only draft another developmental QB). But assuming he's not, then I think the proper time frame is ~3 years.

    That ~3 year time frame is important in 2 respects: 1) can't wait too long, and 2) can't be too impatient. The "can't wait too long" is my view that you don't keep hoping that somehow an average QB after 3 years or so will finally turn it on in later years, and the "can't be too impatient" is saying don't give up on the QB after only their rookie year or even year 2, unless it starts to look like you have a Josh Rosen.

    But regarding the developmental QB aspect, I'd have no issue spending a 3rd or lower on a QB in this draft.
     
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  27. Drizzy

    Drizzy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If Houston said you can have Watson if you give us Tua, Austin Jackson, Igbinoghene, and Wilkins, you'd say deal right? Those were our last four 1st round picks.
     
  28. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    ///////////////

    Flounder there is a scale...

    Like when you are a baseball prospect and they rate your fastball on a scale from 1-8.. If you are a 6 you are Roger Clemens ( just using names and numbers for an example I am pulling a random name out of my arse here. )

    Years ago Chad Pennington was rated to have a 4 arm on a 1-6 scale and because he could not sling it like Rodgers he was considered to have a nothing special arm. After injuries and years of working out and rehabbing working on his mechanics his arm strength improved and he was rated to eventually have a 5 arm on the scale. Still not a 6 like Rodgers... The funny thing is though that Pennington never lost the Stigma of having a noodle arm. ( Even though he had noticeably increased the velocity of his throws. )

    So for me it comes down to... Can you make all of the throws consistently to make completions? ( Basically all NFL QB's can ) Can you make the throws with enough velocity that the other team is not intercepting all of your passes?

    If you can answer yes to both of these questions then we need not bother worrying about who has the biggest arm.... We might as well be talking about who has the biggest c*ck... LMAO
     
  29. flounder97

    flounder97 Well-Known Member

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    This was my line of thinking too. Personally, I think Tua has plenty of velocity to get the ball where it needs to go and his accuracy can place the ball where it needs to be.
     
  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    With regard to physical traits, Tua isn't significantly different from Drew Brees.

    Is it likely he'll become Drew Brees simply by virtue of that? No, but there is a current player with Tua's traits who is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and so obviously it's quite possible to be highly successful in the NFL with those traits.
     
  31. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I mean, "quite possible" might be overstating it, given that if you don't have l prototypical size/strength your getting weeded out before college.
     
  32. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The problem there is again we're cherry-picking two examples where it feels wrong to ignore the other factors. I would like the Steve Young comparison more if Steve Young wasn't such a great runner. At a time when QBs really didn't run very much he could go for 5-, 6- and 7-yards per carry and total as much as 500-yards rushing in a singe season. Even today, in an era when running QBs are not hard to find, Tua posted a 3-ypc average and little more than 100-yds rushing. Talking about Steve Young and ignoring the fact he was such a dual-threat at a time when that was very rare and thus defenses weren't used to accounting for it leads us into a false sense that Tua could just as easily succeed when that's not really such a valid argument.

    Likewise, one cannot talk about Joe Montana in the mid-80s without factoring in the development of the modern / West-Coast short passing game which (at that time) defenses really weren't ready for. Let's remember that we're talking about an era wherein Marino and the Dolphins were able to topple the vaunted 85 bears by--get this--using a 3rd WR, LOL. In short, Joe Montana overcame his limited physical abilities with an immense amount of strategic leverage which--let's face it--Miami doesn't have in support of Tua right now. We're all praying we get a progressive-minded OC that builds around Tua's strengths but he's unlikely to have anything like the advantage Montana did before we mention Jerry Rice or Roger Craig.

    When we go back 40-years we can't just look at z-scores and call it a day. We have to factor in what the challenge was then and how that's evolved today because today's world may demand a different set of skills. Defenses are more complicated today and are much quicker to adjust on the fly to shut down an opposing offense. This means it's far less likely a QB will last without superior physical skill to lean on when things get tough. Fact is, if Tua's going to crack the top-10 in passer rating, he'll have to do it while having less arm strength than anyone else in that range.

    We've seen that pretty much any QB can begin to look fairly respectable with enough experience. The challenge for QB prospects is earning the time. Without making exceptional plays in year-1 and year-2 it becomes increasingly more difficult to justify the team hand out additional years in which a QB can develop himself as a passer.

    Games like Arizona showed us that Tua can make special plays. However, the way the offense ground to a halt against Cincinnati, Denver, Oakland and Buffalo was a kick in the teeth. We're going to need to see more of that Arizona Tua next year to feel confident sticking with him.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2021
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  33. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    It's easy to say we should factor in X, Y and Z, but how do you do that objectively? That's why it's often best to just leave it as z-scores, otherwise you just get back to personal opinion.

    For example, how do you factor in that QB's today can't be hit like before, WR's can't be interfered with like back then, etc. How does that affect the likelihood of someone like Tua succeeding? It becomes subjective if you go that route. Also, your last statement about Tua cracking the top 10 means he'll have to do it with less arm strength than anyone else ignores Brees. Pennington also did that in a few years.

    Point is, there's precedent for QB's without a strong arm succeeding, not just in the past but today too. Is it more or less likely for a QB to succeed ONCE they're in the NFL with a weak arm? We don't really know (see my post #143 on the stats we'd need to determine that). What we do know is that you can compensate for a weak arm with elite decision-making ability. Can Tua develop that at the NFL level? Who knows, but he had good decision-making in college. We'll find out.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2021
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  34. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    From the statistical perspective, is it legit to say that today's game is more about QB-play & passing?

    Is there an argument to say that QBs had less effect on winning in say 1980 versus 2020?
     
  35. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yes.

    First, the correlation between passer rating (efficiency stats) and win% has increased over that time: around 0.56 in the 80's, 0.63 in the 90's 0.65 in the 2000's, and 0.67 in the 2010's. Second, pass percentage has increased, from around 53% in the 80's, 55% in the 90's, 56% in the 2000's, and 58% in the 2010's. Passing attempts has also increased during that time, though I think for answering your question it's better to look at pass percentage.

    So not only is each passing attempt more important for winning the game, teams rely more on passing to win the game today than they did in previous decades.
     
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  36. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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  37. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    And yet with best Rb in Nfl Tannehill is not close to SB.He has zero chance of ever beating out mahomes for AFC championship unless he has 2000 Raven defence!
     
  38. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    We need an elite talent at QB and Tua will never be that guy
     
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  39. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Is Henry the clear cut best RB in the NFL?
    Also tannehill beat mahomes last year late in the season and gave them a good game in the playoffs. This notion that tannehill is not good enough to win with is ridiculous.
     
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  40. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    Of course he is.3500 yds in last 2 years.Tannehill is a play action needed Qb.End of season crap doesn't mean ****.In the playoffs he will never out play mahomes and.thats the goal right?
    As Ric flair used to say to be the man you have to beat the man!
    Sorry but Tannehill will never be the man.He is not good enough.
     
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  41. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Anything can happen in one game... The point is that Tannehill played out of his mind to get them to the playoffs... So yeah in the AFC championship game Mahomes outplayed him. In that game Tannehill played well.

    Why is it that nobody points out that in the 2 playoff losses in the last two years in both of those games Henry Sh*t the bed

    The first thing you did to point to Henry's greatness was the 3500 yards in the last 2 years... but you want to forget the games in the playoffs where he sh*ts the bed and does not get 60 yards.

    So are you saying Henry is not good enough to win with because to be the man you have to .... LOL

    According to your logic Henry not winning the biggest game of his life negates his regular season stats. ( your words. ) No way that he can be the best RB in the league then.
     

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