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Today I had a total reversal on Watson, Tua, and the direction of the Dolphins

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by DOLFANMIKE, Jan 29, 2021.

  1. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't know what "best" could possibly mean if it doesn't describe Derrick Henry, LOL. He's bigger and faster than almost all his peers. As a result, he's an every-down RB and on top of that he's a remarkable teammate to boot and he's yet to deal with the injuries we've seen other top RBs succumb to (e.g. Christian McCaffrey).

    And in case it's not known to everyone, he followed up a disgustingly-dominant 2019 during which the team obviously leaned on him extraordinarily throughout the Play-offs with a 2020 season in which he became only the 8th rusher in NFL history to reach 2,000 rush yards in a single season.

    Derrick Henry has been a team-first player while putting up 5,000+ all-purpose yards over the last 3 seasons which is as much or more than Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey and Ezekiel Elliot doing it on a team that doesn't hide the fact he's their #1 weapon. Until Derrick Henry gets hurt and starts missing time, I think he'll be considered the NFL's top RB, especially if he continues to be so openly featured in Tennessee.

    I believe it's been shown statistically that Tannehill's production suffers more dramatically than that of other QBs when his supporting run game is not firmly established.

    The narrative that has always stuck with Ryan Tannehill is that he's probably not good enough to operate an elite passing offense independent of having a great rushing attack. While Ryan Tannehill's efficiency has been great over the last 2 seasons, it's pretty apparent the Tennessee Titans have the #1 rush attack. According to breakdowns I've seen, the narrative around Ryan Tannehill seems to be true that his game-to-game performance is highly correlated with how the run-game does (at a rate that suggests he's more dependent on it than other top QBs).
     
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  2. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Greg

    As stated last year... Henry's numbers were lackluster before Tannehill became the starter... They exploded once he took over... So Henry has greatly benefitted from Tannehill.... Nobody seems to write about that... Just that Tannehill has a great RB.

    But comparing the Titans to the Chiefs.... Tannehill does not have half of the talent around him that Mahomes does. People on here want to criticise Tannehill because Henry is talented... But overall Mahomes has a lot more talent when it comes to the skilled players on offense. Nobody ever tries to diminish the accomplishments of Mahomes.
     
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  3. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    My point is you shutdown the running game and this guy will never beat the elite QBs to get to SB!
    Case in point he hasn't
     
  4. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    The championship game he threw for 206 yds.
    Not going to beat mahomes throwing 200 yds
     
  5. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    Wait a minutue!**** this !
    I just got dragged into a Tannehill debate
    I'm done.
     
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  6. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This is often claimed but it's not really true.

    Derrick Henry had a 4.9 YPC average in 2018 as a part-time RB and while that has climbed slightly to 5.1 and 5.4 in the Tannehill years, the main difference is really just that the Titans have elected to use Henry more and feature him as a full-time RB. In 2018, Henry got 215 attempts. In 2020, he got 378 attempts.

    That's definitely not the same as being bad and then turning good. I think the need to feature Henry also became more clear to the Titans once Marcus Mariota was out of the picture. Let's remember, he was also a runner himself putting up ~350-yds per season. By comparison, Tannehill only puts up about 50-yds per season. He's as much of a pocket-passer as one can be.

    Look, I won't deny Tannehill is far better than Mariota or that the offense gels much better with Tannehill there but saying that Henry's success was predicated on Tannehill is a big stretch. He's got basically the same YPC he always did. He's merely a bigger part of the game-plan.

    Well, I can certainly appreciate that Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are elite players at their position. Nobody is going to debate that. But while I think Hill and Kelce help make Mahomes and the Chiefs look unstoppable at times much the way Randy Moss and Wes Welker did for Brady in 2007 and WWelker/DThomas/ESanders/JThomas did for Peyton Manning and the Broncos in 2013, I've also seen a strong trend over the last 20 years wherein great QBs consistently keep themselves right up at the top of the rankings regardless of who they're throwing to. Brady and Manning were both Brady and Manning regardless of those couple seasons in which they were entirely unstoppable.

    So while I'm not sure the Chiefs would be so unstoppable without Hill and Kelce there, I'm pretty sure Patrick Mahomes would (and probably will) do just fine in their absence. Let's also remember that Mahomes is still supposedly a baby in terms of development. He walked right in and started dominating the way no one this side of Dan Marino even did. It's pretty hard not to consider him the single best QB in the NFL factoring in physical gifts, statistical production, age, etc.

    As I said, until we see Tannehill continue his elite passing stats without a great run game it'll be hard to imagine him being truly elite the way Mahomes is. Look at Deshaun Watson. If we put Ryan Tannehill on the 2020 Texans, how likely do you think it is that he ends up with an elite passer rating the way Watson did?
     
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  7. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Greg

    I was simply looking at the splits of Henry's numbers last year with Mariota as the starter and then with Tannehill... I would have to go back and look but the yards per carry was something insane like 50 % more with Tannehill. Clearly, Henry is a great player.... And Tannehill and the Titans are lucky to have him in that offense. But as we saw last year The Titans and Henry were lucky to have Tannehill also and the offense exploded because of Tannehill.

    As for the playoff game that Pump was referring to... I blame that on the coaching staff partially... When they lost Henry was shut down but it is not like they changed their approach and suddenly decided to let Tannehill throw the football 45 times a game... And the reason they lost was because Tannehill sucked. Tannehill completed 67% of his passes threw no interceptions and had a QB rating of 108!

    My point is that Tannehill was completing passes moving the football consistently and even though Henry was having limited success They did not open up the playbook and let Tannehill throw it more... It was not until late in the 4th quarter when the Chiefs were up three scores that the Titans really gave up on running Henry and allowed Tannehill to throw the ball downfield and he immediately connected for a 22 yard touchdown pass to Firkser.. But then it was too little... too late.

    The game plan and play calling lost that game for the Titans. Against the Pats and the Ravens they used Tannehill's arm to get the lead and once they had a lead they played ultra-conservative and let Henry bring it home the rest of the way... So Henry had huge numbers. The minute the Chiefs took the lead against the Titans the game plan needed to change... You cannot run Henry to preserve a lead you do not have. Andy Reid is too good a head coach not to come up with a plan after seeing the Titans execute the exact same gameplan against the Pats and Ravens two weeks in a row.

    In that game, the Titans took an early lead and then took their foot off of the gas in the second quarter and started to play very conservatively.

    You need look no further as to why they lost that game... Tannehill had nothing to do with it.
     
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  8. M1NDCRlME

    M1NDCRlME Fear The Spear

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    In the case of Watson those are empty numbers put up as a result of them getting blown out of games early. The Texans D was awful and that's not Watson's fault. In that context, yes, I think Tanne could put up similar numbers in that same situation.
     
  9. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    I do not want to criticise or diminish Watson in any way... I think the kid is great... But yes there is a lot to the statement that a lot of numbers are much easier to come by late in the game when down multiple scores and the other team is playing prevent defense.
     
  10. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    There is a fundamental difference between arguing that Mahomes's success is a function of his receivers and arguing that Tannehill's success is a function of his run game: defending against Mahomes's receivers is in effect defending against Mahomes himself (i.e., Mahomes and his receivers are both part of the passing game), whereas defending against Tannehill's run game is not defending against Tannehill. Defending against Tannehill's run game opens things up for Tannehill, whereas defending against Mahomes's receivers does nothing of the sort for Mahomes.

    The effect of this is shown in situations in which the pass is expected by opposing defenses, where Mahomes plays better (remarkably!) than even his own norm, and Tannehill in such situations plays worse than his own norm.

    When the opposing defense keys on Mahomes and the passing game, Mahomes plays even better. Conversely, when opposing defenses key on Tannehill (and off of Henry), Tannehill plays worse.
     
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  11. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    No. The problem is saying that because Tannehill is deadly in PA, that that means Tannehill is dependent on Henry. PA isn't effective because you have a stud running back.
     
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  12. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Effectiveness of play-action diminishes as pass probability increases, and so does Tannehill’s performance. That isn’t true for Mahomes, who plays better as pass probability increases.

    Tannehill needs conditions of normal or higher run probability to play well, whereas Mahomes doesn’t.
     
  13. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Except that Henry increased his effectiveness by something like 50% because of tannehill over Mariotta

    Your statements ignore this for your own arguments... You are making arguments and trying to find numbers that support your pre conceived prejudices.... That is not math, science, or statistical analysis...

    You have it backwards.

    Ask questions first... come up with experiments to answer questions and then do the math and the exercises and let the numbers and data answer your questions.

    It is called the scientific method and it works.... 100% of the time if applied correctly.
     
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  14. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Guys - please rein it in. You're going well off-topic.
    *****************************************
     
  15. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Galant

    Just good football talk man
     
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  16. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    There's a whole Tannehill thread located here:

    https://www.thephins.com/threads/ryan-tannehill.94693/

    It's many thousands of pages long and has existed for several decades. Some say it even pre-dates the NFL entirely! It's chock full of just these sorts of debates.

    Suffice it to say, I think the research that Guy is pointing to more or less seals it.
     
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  17. DOLFANMIKE

    DOLFANMIKE FOOTBALL COACH 32 YEARS Luxury Box

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    Pretty good discussion on Tua and our pick at #3 maybe going QB
     
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  18. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    It's good to consider, but I don't think any of the QBs other than Lawrence in this draft have higher ceilings than Tua.

    Remember that just because a guy gets drafted high in the first round doesn't mean he's destined for superstardom. Zach Wilson and Justin Fields don't impress me as bringing anything better to the table than Tua, and I'm an Ohio State fan.

    Wilson tends to crumble under pressure, and Fields crumbles in the big game scenario. I think Tua will be a better pro than both of them.

    Now that doesn't mean Tua will be elite, because I think the jury is still out on that, but I don't think Wilson or Fields will be better than him.
     
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  19. DOLFANMIKE

    DOLFANMIKE FOOTBALL COACH 32 YEARS Luxury Box

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    I would have agreed about Tua being better than Fields or Wilson last year. But after seeing Tua this season I don't know that I could say the same. Then again, If we spent #3 on a QB and he also didn't pan out (entirely possible) I'd have a baby.
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2021
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  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Right, but consider that we haven't seen Wilson or Fields in the NFL, where during their rookie seasons they're very likely to play no better than average. Now imagine that you've seen an NFL season of them playing at that level and you're comparing them to Tua.
     
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  21. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    Sorry to break it to you but offenses play defenses, not other offenses.

    This means QB's only compete when they are on the same offense.
     
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  22. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Nah... I do not think Tua is given enough credit for the fact that he was a rookie with no off-season or pre-season to prepare. He was throwing to guys like Ford, Hurns, Hollins, and Gator... Oh yeah, 3/5th of the O line were rookies and the running game was anemic.

    So yeah the passing totals were low... How about focusing on the fact that he was winning and not turning the football over.

    Parker would be the #3 receiver on the Chiefs.. Gesicki would be the backup tight end. I am not saying Mahomes is not an amazing player... But his numbers would be severely decimated if he was throwing passes to Hurns and Hollins instead of Hill and Watkins

    We have the makings for a very good O line.. With a real pre-season and time to adjust and work together, this is going to be a talented group of men. Davis is amazing in that he can play 4 positions on the line and be above average at all 4 of them...Jackson is everything we hoped for... a true anchor at left tackle. Hunt showed flashes... Kindley is dependable and Flowers is a top guard...

    Sign Robinson or Davis
    Draft Eskridge to play the slot
    Draft Harris at RB
    Draft the best center left at the end of round 2

    And then if Tua is only passing for 150 yards.... Complain. I have said it before and I will say it again because it is so important. Hollins, Hurns, Ford, and Gator would not make the roster of the KC chiefs. Last year Williams was hurt for most of the season and Parker was out or playing hurt pretty much all of the season... Creating no separation. Gesicki was the only decent target out there.

    I want everyone to remember the most important thing... The player's reaction to Tua at the start of the season. The players were so excited when speaking about him... Just like when Mahomes was on the bench and Alex Smith was putting together the best year of his career. Mahomes was killing it in practices and wowing the players and they all saw it. Even though Smith was getting the job done the whole team knew Mahomes was going to start and be a star...

    Fast forward to the start of this year.... With no preseason and no offseason workouts, we start the NFL season and the players here immediately cannot stop talking about how impressed they are with Tua. When he got the call to start all of the players were excited. They saw him in practice and they knew he was going to take over this team and be the starter... The writing was on the wall. They love and respect Fitzmagic... He is the ultimate leader... They would go through a wall for him... But they all knew Tua was going to take over.


    We are just armchair Tuesday morning QB's, Coaches, and GM's. Opinions are like As*holes; We all have them! Ask yourself this... Should we listen to idiots like Cowherd,(Spelling? ) or look at the smiles on the faces of the players when it was mentioned that Tua was going to be the starter? I will trust the admiration and respect Tua earned from the players over Cowherd any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

    The players loved Fitz, but wanted Tua... That tells me all I needed to know.
     
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  23. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    But should he get any credit for that? I don't think the weaknesses Tua showed are things that can be chalked up to rust or lack of preparation. They seem more like a lack of physical skills.
     
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  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Not seeing "NFL open", as in whether throwing in that tight window is something an NFL receiver has a high enough probability of catching that you should throw it, is definitely something that a QB can improve on by watching film and having more practice time with receivers. Arguably, that was the most important weakness with Tua: constant check downs.

    No, I'd argue the most important weaknesses we saw with Tua are things that can be vastly improved on with a full offseason. Same is true for when to take a sack, throw the ball away, and other decision making issues we saw.
     
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  25. RevRick

    RevRick Long Haired Leaping Gnome Club Member

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    Y'know..... I have really never been able to take Colin Cowherd seriously since I first saw him about 15 or so years back - maybe more. There were a number of times I wish I had replay on my car radio so I could hear just exactly what he said... because it sounded ridiculous. I hope he has improved from then! Do they have a book called "How to use your new television for oulde phartes?" Maybe I could watch him more often.
     
  26. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Been reading a lot of these posts regarding Tagovailoa and his arm strength. While I do understand the importance of being able to throw that long ball, it’s not needed. Remember, football is a TEAM sport.

    Cheek out this article on Mahomes and the KC offense.

    https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2021/02/02/patrick-mahomes-short-passes-super-bowl-lv/

    As you can see, although stats show Mahomes with a gazillion passing yards, most of that yardage comes in YAC. Mahomes doesn’t throw the ball further than 20 yards very often. A lot of his passes are short passes and the receivers gain the yardage.

    Tagovailoa is accurate. He’s good with ball security. It was Gailey’s offensive scheme that didn’t fit to his skills set. This is something I’ve often complained about for years...teams draft a player that was successful in college and once he gets to the NFL, they try to change how he plays.

    If the Dolphins alter their offensive scheme with shorter passing routes and we get receivers that can get those yards after the catch, Miami’s offense can indeed move the ball and put points on the board. The problem however is the current set of receivers we have.

    Minus Grant, our receivers are slow and don’t possess the speed needed to make this offensive scheme work. Speed is the key to an effective short passing game...being able to turn a 3 yard pass into a 15 yard gain.

    It’s all going to depend on our new co-offensive coordinators as to the type of offense we run and whether or not we get the skill players needed to run their offense effectively.

    But bottom line is Tagovailoa doesn’t need to be a “big arm” quarterback to win.
     
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  27. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    What? LMAO

    Lack of skills?

    There is a twitter video of Tua hitting Gator in stride and the football is thrown perfectly almost 60 yards in the air. But people want to talk about Tua's arm...

    Tua buys time in the pocket... Throws to his second and third read as often as his first. ( Something most Qb's take years to learn. )

    And you want to talk about skills.

    Please tell me you posted that while being High?

    LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 5, 2021
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  28. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I agree that it's certainly possible he can improve significantly on that. My concern is that he was reluctant to attempt those passes possibly because of something that can't change much if at all: arm strength.

    There's the "Josh Allen" approach where a QB sort of grandiosely attempts almost every throw because of his confidence in his arm strength, and I can conceive of the opposite where a QB shies away from throws because he has little faith in his arm strength.

    It's not that the window "appears" too small and the receiver appears covered -- it's that he knows on some level he won't generate the velocity required to get the ball there before the window closes.
     
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  29. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    There is nothing Dolphin fans like more than ****ting on Dolphin players.
     
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  30. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Allen was **** his rookie year... Does anyone think he suck* now? LOL

    Why is it that Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Allen all got a pass as rookies but Tua is so criticised?

    Really pisses me off.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 5, 2021
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  31. DOLFANMIKE

    DOLFANMIKE FOOTBALL COACH 32 YEARS Luxury Box

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    QB Watson in Miami having dinner with DL Wilkins and R. Davis
     
  32. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Jeez Burney looks like a freaking hobbit.
     

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