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WRs, Separation, and other factors.

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Mar 30, 2021.

  1. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    There was some reporting earlier in the year about the 2020 Dolphins receiver corp and their inability to get open.

    Looking at the separation gained by Dolphins receivers over the season the numbers for their best pass catchers were low, and either below average or average for the rest.

    From a layman's level the importance of WR's getting open seems obvious. The more open a receiver is, the easier it is to complete a pass to them. So more separation is something everyone wants to see from pass catchers.

    Following on the from that, the Dolphins receivers being on the poor end of the league in terms of separation is something we don't want to see.


    Here are the numbers on average separation for the league receivers (min. 43 targets) for 2020:

    https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation

    "Average Separation (SEP)
    The distance (in yards) measured between a WR/TE and the nearest defender at the time of catch or incompletion."

    For context, the top catcher (purely in terms of average separation) is Deebo Samuels with a number of 4.6. The bottom end of the scale is a figure of 1.7 held by A. J. Green and the Dolphins own Devante Parker.

    Second worse number? 2.0 -Mike Gesicki.

    Then we get a gap and more Dolphins appear around the middle of the pack. Here's the list:

    1. Jakeem Grant - 3.1
    2. Isaiah Ford - 2.8
    3. Mike Gesicki - 2.0
    4. Devante Parker - 1.7


    Here's the average YAC scores for MIA (Top overall is 12.3 Deebo, Bottom is Odell Beckham Jr. with 1.8):

    Yards After Catch (YAC)
    The yards gained after catch by a receiver.

    1. Jakeem Grant - 4.8
    2. Mike Gesicki - 3.8
    3. Devante Parker - 3 (11th Worst)
    4. Isaiah Ford - 2.9 (9th Worst)

    YAC above expected (Top Deebo 4.4, Bottom Austin Hooper -1.5)
    YAC Above Expectation (+/-)
    A receiver’s YAC compared to their Expected YAC.

    1. Jakeem Grant - 1.2
    2. Devante Parker - 0.7
    3. Mike Gesicki - 0.4
    4. Isaiah Ford - 0.1

    In terms of why we should look at separation as an indicator of WR performance/ability, there's an article from FiveThirtyEight looking at Michael Thomas (from Aug. 2020).
    They're attempting to determine whether he's an elite receiver or simply part of an elite offense - "NFL analysts have debated whether Thomas’s production is best explained by his skill and talent, or if instead he’s merely a good receiver who runs a lot of slants and benefits from being in an elite offense."

    One way to try to evaluate this is, according to them, by looking at separation created by the WR:

    "One way to try to answer the question is to look at how well a receiver creates and maintains separation from a defender. Being quick and fast isn’t enough for NFL success; just ask Yamon Figurs or Darrius Heyward-Bey, both of whom ran a 4.3 40-yard dash at the NFL combine. The elements of savvy route running — footwork, head and body fakes, disguising the intent of the route, changing direction sharply without losing speed — all appear to be more reliable indicators of NFL skill and talent than speed. And the ultimate goal of every route is to create enough separation from a defender to earn a target and make a catch."

    (They cite this article in defense of examining separation an essential part of becoming a good receiver.)

    Delve in if you like. As with any NFL analysis there are positives and negatives.
    One interesting point is that they noted that separation numbers for any given receiver can vary a lot from year to year. So it's perhaps a better indicator of performance rather than ability, at least year to year. There's also the question of when to look at separation - some QB'a throw with anticipation, before the WR is open, and others throw later when the WR is already open. In the case of the article and their look at it they opted to measure separation at the time of the catch.

    Either way, last year the best Dolphins receivers weren't good when it came to creating separation, and if separation is as important as some think it to be, then we have to ask the questions:

    Why so bad? Was it scheme, talent, something else?
    Can it be fixed?
    How much does this weigh in on the question of QB performance and Tua especially?

    What other aspects factored in on the WR front?

    Here's the Barry Jackson piece from earlier in the year looking at the 2020 performance:

    https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article247466865.html

    "The result was that Tagovailoa threw into tight coverage (where a defender was within one yard of the receiver at the time of the completion or incompletion) on 20.3 percent of his throws. Among quarterbacks who made at least eight starts, only Mitch Trubisky and Joe Burrow threw into tight windows more often. Ryan Fitzpatrick was a 21.7 percent.

    And there’s this: Dolphins receivers dropped 18 of Tagovailoa’s passes. No quarterback who threw such few passes (290) had as many dropped. Conversely, Dolphins players dropped 14 passes thrown by Fitzpatrick. Miami had the sixth most drops in the league, per stats.com.

    Parker’s seven drops were ninth most in the league. Grant had four, which ranked 36th most.

    And of the 29 passes thrown by Tagovailoa that traveled at least 20 yards in the air, three were dropped. Only eight quarterbacks had more deep passes dropped.

    Keep in mind that Dolphins receivers dropped none of Fitzpatrick’s deep ball attempts, which is one reason why Fitzpatrick is perceived to have had a better year throwing deep balls. In fact, Tagovailoa would have had more deep ball completions than Fitzpatrick if not for those drops."

    Thoughts?
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  2. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I had no idea Deebo Samuels was one of the best receivers in the league- my daughters went to high school with him. You guys might recall me bragging about their team winning back to back state championships? His senior class got all of that started when my oldest was a freshman.

    I know that's completely off-topic, but it felt important to share. =)
     
  3. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Definitely interesting. We knew they were nowhere near where a playoff team should be in terms of talent and production. Injuries and having people sit out the season certainly didn't help.

    As far as Parker, are there any stats that evaluate a WR's ability to go up and get a ball or win a jump ball? He doesn't strike me as a separation guy but rather a guy who will win a jump ball.

    Any thoughts about what WR/TE in the draft gives us the best separation?
     
  4. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    My first thoughts turned to Kyle Pitts, that man has put some serious moves on people, and then with his size that has to be a match up nightmare. In addition, per the reports in the articles, the importance of separation trails off the deeper the balls thrown, so separation matters more the shorter the throws, so again, a good fit for a TE.

    I can't claim to be any sort of a pass catching evaluator, at all. I'll leave that to others. I tend just to try to improve my understanding as much as I can, and take in information as I go (as might be evidenced by the ridiculous number of Tweets I post!). In general I'd say that pundit and commentators rate Smith as the better WR for separation etc. They view Chase as a safer option because of his size - no perceived weakness to his game. I think if Smith weighed more it wouldn't be a contest in terms of a consensus WR1.

    Having said that, I found this comparison from just one single source, and it shows Waddle as the best for separation:
    https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...nted-in-final-four-as-baylor-houston-advance/

    So take it as you will!
     
    mlb1399 likes this.
  5. Pennington's Limp Arm

    Pennington's Limp Arm Well-Known Member

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    Very good topic.

    A lot was made last year about Tua adjusting to ‘NFL open’. And Tua hesitating to throw into tight man coverage (not a bad thing IMO!). But the bottom line is our receivers weren’t even getting separation by NFL standards.

    The recieving core was perfect for Fitz. Parker, Geisiki and Williams are all big go up and get it type receivers. Perfect for an aggressive downfield passer who doesn’t mind throwing yolo balls and trusting his receivers.

    Problem is Tua had Ruggs, Smith, Waddle and Foster in college and those guys are green grass separators... not contested catch guys. Cam Simms is a contested catch guy, but mostly Tua had been used to seeing that separation.

    It stands out to me that our big FA WR acquisition was Fuller. Guy is known as a pure separator. I know Foster may not make the team. But also a guy known for outrunning the defense more than anything.

    Could be a tell on who we are targeting at the draft too. Chase is considered among the best prospects ever at going up and getting a ball. He turns ‘50/50’ balls into ‘95/5’ balls. But maybe doesn’t run away from the defense the way guys like Smith/Brown can.
     

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