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Trade up and take 2 elite prospects!

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Mar 31, 2021.

  1. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    I know, I know. It's insane. I know that. Just let me have a giddy moment - though I promise I'm not smoking anything.

    If the chips fall so that Miami can trade back from 6 to 8 on the day and still make this work it will make it easier with the added picks. However, even if not:

    At 6 (or 8) take Sewell or Pitts.

    Then trade your behind up from 18 (yes, spend your picks to do so) and get Chase or Smith.

    Yes it'll cost some second round picks, maybe another first. It doesn't matter.

    We walk away from this draft with:

    Sewell and an elite pass catcher.
    An elite TE and an elite WR.

    The draft is about finding talent. Picks mean nothing if you don't land them - picks only have value when they are converted into talent. If the talent is there this year. Go get it.

    Remember, a bird in each hand are worth four picks in the bush. (That's how the saying goes, right?)

    We've got some talent at WR and TE but if they don't do well we need new ones, and if they do very well we will need to pay them. Talented receivers chosen now will mitigate that, and we might get some compensatory picks for talent lost. Move on from talent early rather than late.

    Alright, that's my pipe dream.

    Who says no?
     
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  2. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  3. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Personally, I like having those extra at bats. It’s a probability game and I’d rather have 5-6 picks vs 2.
     
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  4. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    I get that, but at the same time, your odds on hitting a home run decrease the later you're hitting, so there's a solid argument for 'see talent, take talent'.

    Get it done Grier, get it done!

    [​IMG]
     
  5. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    How high up are you going? I’m guessing the success rate of 15 vs 40 is minimal which is why it would cost 2-3 1st/2nd rounders to move into the top 10 from 18.
     
  6. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Well, this is the million dollar question. Which one of those guys is going to fall at all? You maybe keep your eyes open and wish for it, and if one of them drops to 10 or back you try to trade up?

    I don't think back inside the top 10 would be possible.

    But let's say it is possible to grab one somewhere between 10-17... spend the picks.

    Let's start inducing some fear in defences.
     
  7. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Assuming we got Pitts/Chase at 6 and IF Parsons was there still at 13/14, I’d be open for a trade. Should only cost you a 2nd/3rd rounder at that point.

    Honestly, I hope we trade 18 back to mid 20’s for a 2nd and snag Zaven Collins.
     
  8. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    If we can move up from 18 using the 2023 1st rounder we just acquired, then yeah...roll the dice. We started at 3 and 18, so I couldn't complain if we end up picking like 6 and 12 with nothing else to show for it.
     
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  9. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    I am, in general, a big fan of trading up and not at all a fan of trading down. So yeah, if someone is there at 11-15 that we want, I say go for it.
     
  10. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    I could live with that, but I'd rather have 3 really good players then one elite player. Look at the Tunsil trade for an example.
     
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  11. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    I am 100% for this. We should NOT be using all of our draft picks. Package them babies and move up!

    I think that this team is close to being a SB contender. I no longer think we are in the situation where we need to rebuild unit X or Y. It is all gonna come down to our offense. I am NOT worried about the D at all. Get Tua the most talented guys we can possibly get. I think there is a large gap between Chase + Smith and all the other WRs. If we can go up and get one of them plus Pitts. DO IT!

    If that doesn't happen, I have always thought that packaging our two seconds to get back into the first to get Harris makes a ton of sense.
     
  12. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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  13. DOLFANMIKE

    DOLFANMIKE FOOTBALL COACH 32 YEARS Luxury Box

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    It's not insane at all. In fact it's exactly what we should do. Draft Pitts @6, then Trade up from 18 and draft WR D. Smith...
    Grab an Edge rusher and RB, then a Center and call it a day.
     
  14. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    It goes without saying that it depends on which players that we're talking about. For me, if Pitts is there at #6, then we need to take him and be overjoyed. And then it depends on who else has been taken, and who might be falling. If QBs go 1-4 and then the Bengals take Sewell at #5, then the three guys who are considered to be the top WRs would still be on the board. And from that point, we'd see who wants to grab them.

    If we get to #10 and especially Chase, but also Waddle are still sitting there, then I would absolutely like to look into packaging #18 and Mike Gesicki and seeing what else we might need to grab one of them. (I personally have no interest in Smith, and wouldn't trade up for him).

    I also had several mock drafts myself this morning where the Bengals took Chase and Sewell fell past #10, and I would absolutely do what I needed to go up and get him if that were to happen.
     
  15. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  16. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I’d be so disappointed if both Pitts and Chase are gone at 6. I’d lean towards Sewell at that point.
     
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  17. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Same. Sewell would be the only player I'd draft at #6 in that scenario.
     
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  18. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    Him or Parsons. I would probably take Parsons and would go WR at 18 hopefully Waddle or Smith are still there, maybe take Bateman if none are available.
     
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  19. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    I'm gonna say no, it's not worth the cost. Maybe if Smith/Waddle slide to the 14-16 range and you can do it with a minimal pick loss like a third rounder, but aside from that no. WR is too deep a position, too easy to find production in the mid/late rounds to be spending extra picks on them.

    Take Pitts at 6 and pray he's basically your Calvin Johnson for the next decade. At 18 take Harris or the best edge/OLB prospect out there. Or maybe Creed if you love him.
     
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  20. Kud_II

    Kud_II Realist Division

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    No thanks. I was slow to realize we traded away a 1st in 2022, I don't want to lose picks i want to acquire them.

    We Will get 2 elite prospects at 6 and 18. We would have got 2 elite prospects at 12 and 18 and kept our extra 1st next draft.

    I guess the way you think about building a long lasting contender/champion is much different from how I would approach.
     
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  21. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I’m 100% this but I prefer Chase but wouldn’t be sad about Pitts.
     
  22. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    This, drafting is a numbers game. The more picks you have the better your chances of having a good draft.
     
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  23. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    I've been playing around a little with the idea of using one of those extra 1st round picks in 2023 to move up high this year and snag another elite talent. That would leave us with 3 first round picks this year (assuming the Dolphins see players they truly believe in this year). Here's one attempt:

    upload_2021-4-6_16-39-52.png

    I'm not convinced the Lions would accept the trade back, but PFF's website is the only one I've found allowing trades beyond 2022 picks.

    By utilising the 2023 pick you can retain that 18 pick and trade it back for more value if there's no-one at the back of the first you feel is worthy of the pick there.

    If Pitts and Smith were both available I'd really, really try to find a way to snag them both. I think the boost we'd have on the offense would be significant. I could have had Waddle, so that's an alternate but Chase had gone to the Bengals.

    I want to try an grab some edge talent and there are a few players worth a look at the back of the first at earliest. Parsons scares me due to his off the field history, and Miami being burned in the past. In this instance I grabbed Oweh. Could have trade back again, potentially, or gone Paye instead.

    I really like Najee, so snagged him earlier than some might have liked. After that, it was closer to BPA picks. I thought some O line talent might be worth an investment. And at 55 with 0 trade offers, I figured I'd double down at WR and take a flier at Brown. If both Smith and Brown work out then we could hopefully flip some of our other WRs for future picks etc.

    The main concept here, though, was to explore scenarios where we could use that 2023 pick to grab two elite players and yet still retain picks this year, and really rebuild the team with talent we like.
     
  24. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    In some scenarios where Pitts is gone, I'm trying to wean myself off my Sewell addiction by just taking one WR and then waiting until 18.

    In this one I saw that Waddle and Smith were both available so I gambled and traded back with the Panthers. Clearly the website hasn't been updated since the trade for Darnold. It's possible that might jump up if they really wanted one of the receivers, which means there's a risk that both the Panthers and Lions go WR and leave us with nothing. I got away with it though and still snagged Smith as well as another pick. More realistically, it would probably just be a WR at 6 and then wait until 18.

    This time I tried multiple trade backs in the second to see about picking up value or talent at need. Of note I was able to grab a C and also gamble on Cox at LB who missed his pro day due to injury.

    upload_2021-4-6_17-5-10.png

    Again, the realism of these mock drafts is doubtful, but it certainly helps to give you perspective on what might be possible on the day, some talented players out there who could be Miami Dolphins come the 2021 season.

    There's a lot of room for flexibility this draft. I'm hopeful!
     
  25. Fishhead

    Fishhead Well-Known Member

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    While it would be spectacular to land Pitts, Smith and Harris, I can’t see Detroit accepting a trade that leaves them with no pick in the first round of this year’s draft.
     
  26. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    I know! But it was there, so I took it! :D Still, the point is, if Grier sees someone worth nabbing, maybe he can swing a deal and use that future capital to make the move. The easier move would be a trade up from 18. In which case, if he wanted to load up in this draft he might be able to swing that 2023 1st into multiple picks.
     
  27. Fishhead

    Fishhead Well-Known Member

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    If Bill O’Brien had been hired by the Lions, I’d say you might be on to something, lol. I don’t think Dan Campbell wants to do us a solid, however.
     
  28. whiskeyCoke72

    whiskeyCoke72 Active Member

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    I like where we are with 6 and 18, I’d like to see where 36 + 2023 1st round lands us? Can we get Pitts /Chase at 6, Harris @ 18 and then use trade up from 36 to Parsons or the LB from Notre Dame?

    If we could walk away with Pitts/Chase, Najee Harris and Parsons/Owusu-K?!

    by giving up Houston’s 36 and 49ers 2023?
    maybe plus our 3rd? All day long and twice in Sunday’s
     
  29. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Honestly, 6 first round picks in 2 years is borderline absurd and will put us in a financial hole after a few years. Spread out the wealth, spread out the cap hits.

    I also maintain that unless Smith/Waddle fall to like 16ish, using all that capital on 2 WRs (counting Pitts more as a WR than TE) is a waste. WR is a luxury pick and while we can afford and really do need 1, 2 is over the top.
     
  30. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. I think after we address playmaker at 6, our top priority is pass rusher(s). If we're going to have any chance of beating Allen and the Bills, we need to be able to get to him, put him under duress and create some negative plays defensively. I wouldn't be upset if we use 2 of our top 4 picks on pass rushers along with WR/TE at 6 and either C, RB or OL with the other.
     
  31. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    It depends on how you view the prospects in this year's class. Broadly, I agree with you. But I think that if we have the chance to get the two guys that I view as far and away the most special in this draft as pass catchers, then trading away #50 to do it (to move up to #10 or so) is very worth it.

    Now, for me that's the limited scenario of us taking Pitts at #6 and then having Chase still on the board at #10. But if that happens, then see if you can make your move. Bold, but worthwhile.
     

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